【卡内基智库111013】针对中国汇率的法案解决不了问题

diver18

Anti-China Legislation Is Not the Solution
Yukon Huang
U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT, OCTOBER 13, 2011
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/13/anti-china-legislation-is-not-solution/5ws3

Why does Congress find it so convenient to blame the supposedly undervalued renminbi for America's economic ills? With a political system seemingly unable to address America's deeper fiscal and competitive issues that keep the unemployment rate stubbornly high, it's far easier to complain that China's export prowess is the real culprit. But the basis for this accusation just keeps getting weaker over time.

China's exchange rate has appreciated by more than 25 percent over the past six years and Beijing intends for it to appreciate steadily by 5-6 percent annually. As the U.S. dollar strengthened over the past several months in response to the problems in the eurozone, the renminbi has been the only major trading currency to appreciate while the others have typically depreciated by 5-10 percent. And China has cut its trade surplus from the 7-8 percent of GDP five years ago to a projected 1-2 percent this year. Although foreign reserves continue to mount, this has more to do with capital inflows seeking higher returns—nurtured by expansionary U.S. monetary policies—than by an undervalued renminbi.
 
But more importantly, fixating on bilateral trade balances is meaningless when global production is being outsourced to production sharing networks and the supply chain is managed by the Walmarts and Apples of the world. Half of China's exports are "processed" products that draw on a variety of components produced primarily throughout East Asia—but also the United States and Europe—and are ultimately assembled in China. The finished products are then exported primarily to major economies, but also increasingly to other developing countries. This processing trade actually accounts for China's trade surplus as the remainder, which draws exclusively on domestic resources, generates a trade deficit. This means that the U.S. deficit with China is really a deficit with East Asia as a whole.
 
Addressing global imbalances requires multilateral solutions and cooperation rather than something like an anti-China currency bill that only fans counterproductive sentiments.

反华法案不是解决方案

西米+@译言http://article.yeeyan.org/view/230571/224488
于2011-10-16 17:00:44翻译

译者注：

美国把中美贸易的不平衡归于人民币汇率，显得肤浅，有失公允。

       为什么议会如此轻便的把美国的经济困境想当然的归罪于人民币币值被低估？这是因为美国政治体系似乎无法解决美国深层的财政和竞争问题，这些问题致使美国失业率顽固的维持在高位，相较而言，将罪因归于中国出口优势倒是容易的多。但是，这种谴责的依据正与时俱减。

       人民币兑美元汇率在过去6年的累计涨幅已经超过25%，北京打算将汇率每年升值稳定在5—6%。过去几个月来，随着美元在应对欧元区债务危机表现出的强劲势头，人民币已经成为唯一一个对美元保持升值的主要贸易货币，其它主要贸易货币相对美元都贬值了5—10%。此外，中国已经削减贸易顺差占GDP的比重，从5年前7—8%降低到今年1—2%的目标值。尽管外汇储备继续升高，这主要与美国扩张货币政策滋长下的获利资本的流入有关，而不单是低估的人民币币值所造成。

       更重要的，当全球的生产活动正通过外包方式共享加工网络，并在由沃尔玛和苹果管理的供应链上进行，关注双边贸易平衡变得毫无意义。中国半数的出口品是再加工产品——所用的各类零部件主要在东亚国家生产，也有在美国和欧洲生产，最后只是在中国组装。这些成品然后主要出口到主要经济体，现在正逐步面向其他发展中国家。加工贸易的剩余确实给中国带来贸易顺差。不过如果扣除各种国内资源要素，生产的是贸易赤字。这意味着美国对中国的贸易逆差事实上是对整个东亚的贸易逆差。

        解决全球经济不平衡需要多边方案和共同合作，而不是像反华货币提案之类的东西，那只会事与愿违，扇起逆反情绪。

无可就要

美国的政客们习惯于靠谎言来转移他们国内的矛盾，本着“出了问题怪别人的优良传统”，美国人一次有一次把中国拉出来当替罪羊。
早就受够了他们的这些花招，期待一场贸易战。美国将会死得更惨！