【经济学人111018】中国经济在减少依赖出口的情况下能取得软着陆吗？

kamina_shin

【中文标题】中国在减少依赖出口的情况下能取得软着陆吗？

【原文标题】Can China achieve a soft landing with a thinning export cushion?

【登载媒体】《经济学人》

【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/10/chinas-economy

【译    者】 kamina_shin

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译    文】
CHINA'S economy grew at a 9.1% annual pace in the third quarter of this year. That's down a touch from the 9.5% rate notched in the second quarter, and it's a bit below expectations for 9.3% growth. Markets didn't much care for the news, but 9.1% is a pretty healthy clip given the weakness spreading across most of the world economy. Industrial production grew somewhat faster than expected, a nice surprise given PMI numbers that have shown China's manufacturing sector contracting slightly for much of the quarter. Generally, speaking, the hoped-for soft landing seems to be on track.
中国的经济增长在今年第三季达到9.1个百分点。没有接近第二季取得的9.5%，并且比预计的9.3%还稍低一些。市场不是很在意这条消息，对于波及世界大多数经济体的疲软态势9.1%是一个非常正常的减少了。工业生产增长有点比预期快，采购经理指数（PMI）展现了一个惊喜，中国制造业领域这季合同数较多。通常来说，期盼中的软着陆似乎在正轨上。

At FT Alphaville, however, Kate Mackenzie collects comments on the report that provide reason for pessimism. In particular, China's exports have been falling rapidly in recent months, and especially sales to Europe. That may throw a wrench in China's plans to rebalance its economy. Amid strong export demand, it would be easier for China to relax the rules that artificially constrain consumption. Given a broad slowdown in key export markets, however, China may be reluctant to give up any of the edges that its manufacturers enjoy.
然而，在金融时报Alphaville，Kate Mackenzie收集了提供悲观缘由的报告评论。特别的，中国的出口在最近几月已经急速下降，特别是欧洲的生意。这可能妨碍中国重新平衡其经济的计划。由于在强劲出口需求的情况中，对于中国来说，放宽关于人为限制消费的规定更轻松。但是，中国在主要出口市场的明显降速，使其可能不情愿放弃任何其制造业者所享受的优势。

Michael Pettis has written that Japan's growth slowdown didn't generate the public outcry one might have expected because beneath the headline figures the Japanese economy was rebalancing itself toward greater reliance on consumption. As a result, Japanese consumers felt as if they were continuing to grow richer even while output growth slowed dramatically. China would like to perform the same trick but may find it difficult. Government spending and investment have propped up the economy since 2008, but current levels of expenditure aren't sustainable. And efforts to increase consumer purchasing power will further hamstring exporters facing a darkening global outlook. Of course, if China slows the pace of its currency appreciation, that will antagonise the strongest of its large export markets—America. The American economy is better able to power demand than Europe, but with American unemployment high, its politicians are in no mood to worry about economic troubles abroad.
Michael Pettis已经写道：日本经济增长的减缓没有产生人们可能预期的公众的抗议。因为在头版头条描绘日本经济之下是为了更多的依赖消费重塑自身。结果，日本消费者感觉好像他们依然在变富即使出口增长显著地放慢。中国想要玩出同样的把戏但可能发现这比较困难。政府花费和投资自从2008年支撑了经济，但现阶段的支出不是可持续的。增加消费者购买力的努力将更长久的削弱出口者，使其面临一个更加黑暗的全球前景。当然，如果中国减慢其货币增值的步伐，那将与其最大的出口市场---美国为敌。美国经济比欧洲有更强的能力强化需求，但伴随美国的高失业率，其政客没心情担心外国的经济困境。

This is obviously a mess that is, in no small part, of China's own making. Yet it also shows yet again the extent to which the global economy's short-term outlook hinges on developments in Europe. That's not a very promising place to find oneself.
For more interesting commentary on China's real exchange rate, see this new post from Kash Mansori.
这大部分显然是中国自己造成的混乱。然而这也再次表明了全球经济的短期前景取决于欧洲的发展。那不是一个很有前景寻找自我的地方。

更多有趣的中国真实汇率的实时报道，看这里来自Kash Mansori