【兰德报告201110】中美开战不易，和平仍需努力

hadrienyoung

【中文标题】中美开战不易，和平仍需努力
【原文标题】U.S. War with China Not Likely but Steps Needed to Keep the Peace
【登载媒体】兰德公司（RAND）报告新闻稿，OCTOBER 10, 2011
【来源地址】http://www.rand.org/news/press/2011/10/10/index1.html
【译者】hadrienyoung
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn

说明：本文是兰德公司研究报告《与中国的冲突：前景、后果和威慑战略》（Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence）的介绍。

To avoid direct military conflict with China, the United States should adopt a parallel strategy that strengthens the defense capabilities of China's neighbors while inviting China into cooperative security endeavors that benefit the interests of both nations, according to a new RAND Corporation study.
兰德公司的最新研究报告认为，为避免与中国直接军事冲突，美国应该采取两条腿走路的策略，一方面邀请中国参与有利于中美双方的安全防务合作，另一方面提升中国邻国的国防力量。

Researchers find that any military conflict between the United States and China would be disastrous for both sides. Fortunately, a Chinese-American military conflict is not likely to happen so long as the United States retains the capacity to deter behavior that could lead to a clash.
研究者认为中美之间的任何军事冲突对双方都是灾难性的。但值得庆幸的是，只要美国保持足够的威慑能力，那么中美军事冲突就不会发生。

The study examines six scenarios involving North Korea, Taiwan, cyberspace, the South China Sea, Japan and India that could result in a conflict between the United States and China.
研究报告分析了可能导致中美军事冲突的六个假想地区，包括朝鲜、台湾、网络、中国南海、日本、印度。

While researchers emphasize a China-U.S. military conflict is improbable as long as the United States continues to take appropriate measures for defense and deterrence, they find that China will gradually achieve local military superiority.
尽管中国将成为地区军事强国，但研究者认为只要美国继续采取正确的国防政策和威慑战略，中美之间就不会爆发军事冲突。

"If it chose to do so, China could become a more capable opponent than either the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany at their peak," said James Dobbins, the study's lead author and a senior fellow at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. "However, China is not seeking to expand its territory or hold ideological sway over its neighbors. Nor is it seeking to match U.S. defense spending."
这份研究报告的主要作者、兰德公司高级研究员James Dobbins说：“如果中国愿意，中国将成为一个强劲的对手，超过了巅峰时期的前苏联和纳粹德国。然而，中国并没有寻求扩张领土，也没有在意识形态领域控制邻国，更没想在国防预算上与美国匹敌。”

The study finds that North Korea poses the greatest source for conflict in the region. Whether by a failed economy, a contested power transition or a defeat in a war with South Korea, the situation in North Korea would quickly become chaotic and confusing. The immediate operational concerns for the United States and South Korea would be to secure ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, as well as to neutralize North Korean artillery within range of Seoul.
研究报告认为朝鲜是最有可能诱发冲突的地区。经济崩溃、领导人交替、与韩国的军事失利都可能导致朝鲜局势迅速失控，陷于混乱。美国和韩国应及时采取行动以保证弹道导弹和大规模杀伤性武器的安全，同时也能使处于朝鲜火炮射程范围内的汉城免受攻击。

"For these missions, special operations forces, forced entry and airlift capabilities would be at a premium," Dobbins said. South Korea would provide sizable forces for these missions, but they would not be adequate to deal with the situation by themselves. A North Korean collapse could require a very large multinational stabilization force.
Dobbins说：“为了执行这些任务，特种作战部队、强有力的干预能力以及强大的空运能力是不可缺少的。”韩国将为这些任务提供相当大的军事力量，但韩国自己并不足以应对这种形势。只有庞大的多国稳定部队才能应对朝鲜的崩溃。

China would likely respond by mobilizing the Shenyang Military Region forces and could send forces into North Korea to control refugee flow.
中国可能出动沈阳军区的部队进入朝鲜以控制难民潮。

"The likelihood of confrontations, whether intentional or accidental, between United States and Chinese forces would be high, with a significant potential for escalation," Dobbins said. On the other hand, it is equally possible that a North Korean collapse could engender a cooperative U.S. and Chinese response, with both countries joining others in seeking to stabilize the situation.
Dobbins说：“无论是蓄意还是意外，出现中美军事力量对抗的可能性是很高的，而且对抗很可能进一步升级。”但另一方面，朝鲜崩溃也很可能促使中美进行合作，以寻求稳定局势。

While relations between Taiwan and China are improving, the chance of conflict across the Taiwan Strait will remain so long as the fundamental disagreement about the island's status as an independent nation or as part of a "reunified" China remains.
尽管中国大陆与台湾的关系持续改善，但在台湾海峡发生冲突的可能性仍然存在，因为关于台湾是独立国家还是中国的一部分的分歧并没有解决。

The authors find that should a cross-Strait conflict erupt—such as a Chinese blockade of Taiwanese ports or an outright invasion—the U.S. would aim to prevent Chinese coercion or conquest of Taiwan and limit the damage to Taiwan's military, economy and society.
报告的作者认为，如果台海发生冲突，例如中国大陆封锁台湾港口，或是直接入侵，那么美国的计划将是，阻止中国大陆对台湾的高压或占领，减小对台湾军事力量、经济和社会的危害。

To do so would require preventing China from gaining air and sea dominance, and limiting the impact of Beijing's land-attack missiles. This could include the possibility of U.S. strikes on mainland targets associated with the offensive against Taiwan, but such strikes would carry with them the risk of further escalation. China may preempt such actions with attacks of its own against U.S. assets in the region.
要做到这些，必须阻止中国获得制空权和制海权，限制北京的对地攻击导弹。美国可能采取的措施是打击大陆攻击台湾的军事设施，但这样做将使战争升级。中国也可能抢先攻击美国在这一地区的军事设施。

"As China's military modernization progresses, the United States' ability to confidently accomplish these missions is eroding," Dobbins said.
Dobbins说：“中国军事力量不断现代化，而美国完成这些任务的能力正在逐渐削弱。”

China already has demonstrated the capacity for cyberwarfare by conducting repeated intrusions into U.S. networks to steal sensitive data, without U.S. reprisal. Cyberwar between the two nations, researchers say, would not produce a "winner" as both countries would experience substantial economic harm. Such a conflict also would create tension that could negatively influence cooperative efforts involving Iran and the Korean peninsula.
中国不断入侵美国网络以获取敏感数据，美国并没有进行报复，这表明中国已经具备进行网络战的能力。但有研究者认为，中美之间的网络战将不会有赢家，两国都将遭受实质性的经济损失。这种冲突将加剧两国的紧张关系，会对两国合作解决伊朗和朝鲜半岛问题造成负面影响。

With additional potential conflicts in the South China Sea, Japan and India, researchers say the United States needs a wide range of advanced military capabilities to deter a conflict or prevail should one erupt. As Chinese power grows, the direct defense of American interests in East Asia will become progressively more difficult, beginning with Taiwan and spreading outward. Defense and deterrence will increasingly depend upon strengthened indigenous capabilities and the threat of escalation. Such escalation could be either geographic or into other domains such as space, cyber or economic, all areas of considerable American vulnerability.
研究者认为，为应对中国南海、日本和印度的潜在冲突，美国需要一系列先进武器以增强阻止冲突或在冲突中获胜的能力。随着中国军事力量不断增强，美国在东亚地区（从台湾向外扩展）防卫自身利益变得日益困难。美国的防卫和威慑力日益取决于加强本土的能力和升级的威胁。威胁升级可能发生在地理上，也可能出现在其他领域，例如太空、网络、经济，以及任何美国薄弱的环节。

The study says any military conflict with China would have serious economic consequences for both sides. This interdependence is a powerful source of deterrence, operating in effect as a form of "mutual assured economic destruction." The United States needs to maintain the strength of its economy, lest it find itself even more deterred than is China by the prospect of such economic damage.
研究报告认为，与中国的任何军事冲突都可能使双方遭受严重的经济后果。中美两国在经济上的相互依赖性是阻止发生冲突的最有力的力量，因为冲突将“确保互相摧毁经济”。美国需要保持经济力量，以免美国自己被可能的经济损失所威慑，而不是中国被威慑。

The study, "Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence," can be found at www.rand.org. Other authors are David C. Gompert, David A. Shlapak and Andrew Scobell.
研究报告《与中国的冲突：前景、后果和威慑战略》可以在兰德公司网站（www.rand.org）浏览。报告的作者还包括David C. Gompert, David A. Shlapak和Andrew Scobell

The study was prepared by the RAND Arroyo Center, which provides objective analytic research on major policy concerns to leadership of the U.S. Army, with an emphasis on mid- to long-term policy issues intended to improve effectiveness and efficiency. The center also provides the Army with short-term assistance on urgent problems and acts as a catalyst for needed change.
该研究由兰德公司阿罗约中心（RAND Arroyo Center）完成。该中心向美国陆军领导人提供关于重大政策问题的客观分析研究。为提高效率，分析研究侧重中、长期政策问题。中心也向美国陆军提供短期协助以解决紧迫问题。同时，阿罗约中心也是促进必要变革的推动者。

shfbh

比较客观

qj2010

中美还是不要开战的好