【20111018今日美国】中国温州的债务恐慌预计将扩大

sophie1125

【中文标题】中国温州的债务恐慌预计将扩大


【原文标题】Debt panic in China's Wenzhou may predict wider woes


【登载媒体】今日美国


【来源地址】http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/story/2011-10-18/China-credit/50810988/1


【译者】 sophie1125


【翻译方式】人工


【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。


【原文库链接】

【译文】


WENZHOU, China – Wenzhou's private entrepreneurs, scrappy survivors in an economy ruled by state industries, once thrived on a formula of cheap backstreet loans and low-cost manufacturing.
在中国的温州，那些在国有企业统治经济幸存下来斗志旺盛的民营企业家们，曾依靠低廉的民间借贷和低成本制造兴盛一时。


In this photo taken Monday, Oct. 17, 2011, former workers enroll to resume jobs at the Zhe Jiang Center Group, one of China's biggest makers of eyeglasses, outside the company's compound in Wenzhou.
上图摄于2011年10月17日（星期一）。浙江信泰集团是中国最大的眼镜制造商，在温州企业的院墙之外。图为信泰前员工在注册复工。


Now, they're at the center of what some have dubbed China's own subprime debt crisis, a festering mess of borrowings gone sour that has become one of the weakest links in the economy — at a time when strength here is most needed to offset weakness in the U.S. and Europe.
他们现在处在所谓的中国的次贷危机的中中心，一堆出了问题的乱七八糟的借贷成为经济最薄弱的环节之一。现在是最需要的是集中力量来抵消在美国和欧洲的经济疲软。

"Do anything, but not manufacturing in China!" exclaimed Yang Guanghua, boss of a Wenzhou electroplating factory. Unable to collect from customers who themselves have no money, Yang said he stopped paying salaries two months ago.
“什么都可以做，但就是不能在中国制造了！”温州电镀厂的老板杨光华感叹道。杨表示他在两个月的以前就停止支付员工工资了，因为他没能从那些自己也没钱的客户那里收到资金。


"I can't get raw materials because suppliers are afraid I will run away," Yang said. "It's just impossible to get loans from the bank unless you have connections," he said.
“供应商怕我跑路不敢把原材料卖给我，”杨说。“要是在银行里没有关系的话也根本贷不出钱来。”


Wenzhou's factory bosses are caught in a dire credit crunch. Pyramids of high-interest private lending are collapsing as companies whose profits are dwindling due to rising costs and weakening demand default on their debts. Dozens of tycoons have skipped town. The government has intervened, but many worry the stopgap measures will not prevent the problems from getting worse.
温州的工厂老板陷入了一种可怕的信贷紧缩。高利率的民间借贷的金字塔由于成本上升和债务上默认需求的减弱导致公司利润不断减少而正在倒塌。数十个富商已经跑路。虽然政府已出面干预，但很多人担心这治标不治本的措施没法阻止问题进一步恶化。


The true scale of informal lending nationwide, much of it derived from bank loans originally intended for other purposes, is unknown. But such lending has ballooned because the reluctance of China's state-run banks to lend to small and medium-sized businesses has been compounded by government curbs on credit to cool inflation. Interest charged by private lenders can be as high as 90%, inviting comparisons with dodgy investment schemes.
全国范围内的非正式贷款的真正规模是个未知数，其中很大一部分是从银行本来用于其他目的的贷款衍生出来的。中国国营银行不愿借款给中小型企业因政府为冷却通货膨胀的信贷约束更加复杂，因此民间借贷猛增。与狡猾的投资计划相媲美，私人贷款收取的利息可达90％之高。


"I have to conclude that this business is now a Ponzi game, relying on new money to pay off the old money," said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based economist who traveled the Wenzhou region over the past two months researching the situation. "If not checked, this could lead to a national calamity."
“我不得不说现在这个生意是个骗局，拆了东墙补西墙，”上海的经济学家谢国忠说，他在过去两个月曾前往温州地区研究情况。“如果不去检查，这个可能引发一场国家浩劫。”



UBS economist Tao Wang puts informal lending at between 2 trillion yuan to 4 trillion yuan ($314 billion-$628 billion), or up to 10% of China's GDP. There is little immediate impact on China's massive state-run banks from some of these loans turning bad. A bigger risk is Wenzhou's credit squeeze spreading to other parts of the world's No. 2 economy.
瑞士联合银行经济学家把非正式贷款放在2万亿元至4万亿元（约合314亿至628亿美元），或中国国内生产总值达10%。部分这些贷款的失败对中国庞大的国营银行几乎没有一点影响。一个更大的风险，是温州市的信贷紧缩蔓延到中国这个世界第二大经济体的其他地区。


Though Wenzhou, a city of about 9 million on China's southeastern coast, accounts for less than 1% of the country's economic output, it has an outsized impact on China's manufacturing and its financial markets.
温州这个处在中国东南沿海的城市，虽然在全国经济产出的比重中占不到1%，但已经对中国的这造业和金融市场造成了极大的影响。


Almost all Wenzhou's business is privately owned, much of it by the city's more than 400,000 small and medium-size enterprises. The city's tycoons hold an estimated 800 billion yuan ($126 billion) in private capital and are renowned for driving speculation in property, coal mining and other commodities.
几乎所有的温州企业都是私营企业，其中中小企业占了很大的比例，约40万家。这个城市里的富豪们手中握有约800亿人民币（约合126亿美元）的私人资本以，并且以搞财产、煤矿开采和其他商品的投机活动而闻名。


Mercedes, Cadillac and Toyota dealerships line the roads — attesting to the personal wealth that has left the city's nighttime sidewalks chockablock with parked cars and its streets choking with smog.
奔驰，凯迪拉克和丰田汽车的经销商在马路上排列着向人们证明个人财富使这个城市的夜间人行道被停泊的车辆占满，街道被烟雾强的喘不过气来。


Vast chunks of the city are walled off for construction of luxury apartment complexes such as Noble Peninsula and Platinum Garden, while modern amenities such as a subway line are lacking.
这城市的很大片的土地被围墙隔起来用来建造像高贵的半岛酒店和白金花园那样豪华的公寓楼，却没有地铁这种现代设施。


Much of the estimated 500 billion yuan ($79 billion) in private borrowing in Wenzhou went not to manufacturing, but instead to potentially higher return investments in property or commodities — or to still more lending by the borrowers themselves.
在温州民间借贷约有5000亿元（790美元），其中很大一部分并不是用于制造业，而是被投放到可能有高回报的财产和商品投资上，又或者再被借款人去借给别人。


"When banks cut off lending, businessmen went to the high-interest informal lenders, figuring that a month or two later they'd get loans again to repay their other debts. But the banks are not lending so they ran out of cash," said Yu Jingliang, owner of Zhejiang Pacific Paper Co., which deals in disposable moist towelettes and toilet seat covers.
“当银行中断贷款给这些商人，他们就去向高利贷借款，盘算着一、两个月后他们又能从银行那贷款来还债。但银行还是不贷款给他们，他们就卷走现金跑路了。”浙江太平洋纸业的老板于景江说道，太平洋纸业专门经营一次性湿巾和马桶垫。


What might in normal times have been a brief liquidity squeeze became a death grip, as banks ordered to keep record levels of funds in reserves to fight inflation withheld even routine loans.
正常情况下的短暂的资金流动紧缩怎么会致命，这是由于银行要求保留创纪录水平的储备资金来应对通货膨胀，甚至连常规贷款也要扣留。


Some of the tycoons that skipped town, including Hu Fulin, owner of major eyeglass maker Zhejiang Center Group, were convinced or coerced into coming back. A few committed suicide.
部分的富豪们逃离温州，其中也包括浙江最大的眼镜制公司浙江信泰集团的老板胡福林，现已被劝服或者是被迫而回到温州。还有一小部分的老板自杀了。


Despite the domination of state banking and enterprise elsewhere in China, private businesses account for roughly 80% of new job creation and are vital to the country's exports.
除了国家银行的控制和中国其他地区的企业，私营企业创造约80%的新的就业机会，并且在国家出口中起至关重要的作用。


With the problems spreading to other regions, including the Gobi desert boomtown of Ordos, China's leaders stepped in, ordering banks to lend more and to relax repayment terms for small and medium-sized enterprises. Loan sharks and other informal lenders were reminded not to use violence or other drastic measures to collect debts.
随着问题蔓延至其他地区,包括戈壁沙漠里的新兴都市鄂尔多斯,中国领导人介入,下令银行对中小型企业放贷并放松偿还条款，并提醒放高利贷者和其他非正式贷款放贷者不要使用暴力或其他严厉措施来收债。


Meanwhile, the government is slashing taxes and promising faster processing for export tax rebates.
与此同时，政府正削减税收并承诺加快出口退税进度。


The emergency measures, and a morale boosting visit by Premier Wen Jiabao and other top economic leaders, appear to have eased the recent panic.
紧急措施的实施，还有温家宝总理及其他高端经济领导人的访问也使人们士气大增，似乎减轻了近段时间的恐慌。


But more needs to be done, said Chen Shishang, founder of Senken Group, a maker of police vehicles, warning lights, sirens and riot gear.
但还有很多事要做，森垦集团的创始人陈世尚表示。森肯集团专门制造警车、警示灯、警报器和防暴装备。


"From the surface, it looks like the situation is somewhat under control. The government policies are coming and the banks are beginning to adjust, but many companies are still in crisis," Chen said in an interview in his office, an elegant haven of beige marble, oil paintings and ceramics at the company's headquarters in a grimy industrial zone in southern Wenzhou.
“从表面上看来，这情况好像已经被控制住了。政府的政策出台了，而银行业开始作出调整。但是还是有很多企业处于危机之中。”陈在一次在他的办公室里的采访中说道。他的办公室在温州南的一个肮脏的工业区里的公司总部里，里面铺着灰褐色的大理石，还有油画和陶器做摆设，十分优雅舒适。


"We really need for the government to carry through with its help. We need more support measures," Chen said. "It's like a natural disaster. If everyone comes to help it won't be so dangerous."
“我们真的很需要政府去贯彻对我们帮助，而且还需要更多的支持措施，”陈说，“这就像一场自然灾害，要是大家团结起来，都出一份力就不会那么危险了。”


Zhou Dewen, head of Wenzhou's association for small businesses, estimates up to 40% of the country's small and medium-sized manufacturers may have to close or at least cut back production in coming months due to a lack of working capital
温州小型企业协会会长周德文估计多达40%的国家中小型企业将面临倒闭，或者是在未来几个月内要削减产量由于缺乏流动资金。


Yang, the electroplating factory owner, said he is holding back on some orders for customers who are three months in arrears. He paid his workers a 200 yuan ($30) bonus for a recent national holiday, but is letting those who want to leave go.
电镀厂的杨老板表示不接那些欠了三个月款的客户的订单。最近是国庆，他给员工们发了200元(30美元)的奖金，那些想离开的员工就让他们走。


"The workers know it's not a problem with our factory itself, it's just hard to get our money back," he said.
“工人们也知道这不是我们工厂本身的问题，只是很难把钱给要回来。”他说。


Lighter factory owner He Zhanjun, who said he is paying 70% more this year for plastic than last year, is persevering. But he expects about a third of the city's lighter manufacturers to fold.
"Manufacturing is just getting harder and harder," he said.
打火机厂的老板何占军一直坚持着，他说今年的塑料要比去年要贵70%。但是他很期望这城市里的三分之一打火机工厂能合并。“制造业是越来越难做了。”他说。


Though Wenzhou's streets rumble round-the-clock with heavy truck traffic and its skyline is studded with cranes, many workshops and smaller factories stand idle and padlocked. Big office buildings and apartment complexes sit half-finished.
尽管温州的街道上重型卡车全天候地轰隆隆作响，地平线上点缀着许多起重机，但还是有很多的车间闲置着大门紧闭，大型的办公楼和公寓楼复合体才建到一半都停工了。


"Up to now most of what we have done is cheap cost, cheap priced production," said Zhou, who trained as an economist. "Our industries need to upgrade. They need new technology and innovation. They need to create their own brands."
“截至目前大多数我们所做的一切都是低成本生产,价格便宜,”经济师周先生说。“我们的行业需要升级。他们需要新的技术和创新。他们需要创建自己的品牌。”


Such is true for many Chinese manufacturers, who are ceding low-cost competitiveness to other developing countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh.
对中国的许多制造商来说的确是该放弃与其他发展中国家如越南、孟加拉国家的低成本竞争了。


But it's a tall order for a city specializing in contract production for other brands, where billboards advertise tongue-twisting non-household names like Lonsid and Zhotr.
但这对专门为其他品牌做合同生产的城市是一项艰巨的任务，广告牌上的名字从此不再是Lonsid 和Zhotr。


For one thing, upgrading depends on persuading customers to accept higher prices, said Chen, whose 21-year-old company employs about 1,000 people.
"We have to use our heads. There is a lot of pressure," he said.
办了21年的公司，拥有近千名员工的陈老板表示，升级取决于说服客户接受更高的价格。
“我们必须得动脑筋，压力很大。”他说。


China's ascent up the value chain to more sophisticated, costlier products also will require automation.
中国要将价值链提升到更先进的水平，高成本产品也将要求自动化。


Facing wage increases of 25% this year, Qiu Jinguo, 45-year-old owner of Ruian Yutong Vehicle Fittings Co., an auto accessories factory, said he is replacing some of his 70-plus employees with machines.
为应对今年工资增长25%，今年45岁的瑞安宇通汽车部件有限公司老板邱敬国说他有70多名员工，他正在用机器取代部分的员工。



"The cost is the same, while management is much easier," said Qiu, who reckons his profit will still fall by a third this year from last year due to soaring costs.
“这样做成本不变，但更易于管理，”邱老板表示。，由于飞速上涨的物价，他预计他从去年到今年的利润还是会下降三分之一。


But behind Wenzhou's woes lie a wider problem in China: many with capital to invest are no longer looking to manufacturing, when real estate, speculating in commodities such as Pu Er tea and high interest lending can offer much better returns.
但在温州这场灾难的背后藏着一个在中国更广泛的问题：当真正的房地产，像普洱茶的商品投机和高利息的借贷能获得更多的回报，那些手里握有资金的投资者就不会把眼光放在制造业上。


Yu, a former bureaucrat who spent seven years in China's rugged northeast as a youth, said he wants to expand his paper products empire, but can't do it without automation. Problem is, there's not much interest in his line of business.
于老板是一位退休官员，年轻时在中国崎岖不平的东北地区呆了七年，他说他想要扩大他的纸制品帝国,但没有自动化就实现不了。问题在于，在他那一行里没多少利润。


"I need a machine to make those toilet seat covers and I've been looking for one for a long time but I can't find one anywhere," Yu said.
“我需要机器用来生产这些马桶垫，而我一直以来都在寻找这种机器，却怎么也找不到。”于说。

穆萨

狼来了？？

沐霜

扩大不扩大不知道，但出了事就解决，这才是王道

不过牺牲是在所难免的

笑靥se7en

辛苦翻译的了·:o

sophie1125

笑靥se7en 发表于 2011-10-22 15:52
辛苦翻译的了·

理解万岁啊~

shfbh

“我不得不说现在这个生意是个骗局，拆了东墙补西墙，”上海的经济学家谢国忠说。

温州经济就是一个骗局经济，是跂形经济，不值得仿效，更不值得去救。

lilyma06

骗局。。。