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【中文标题】史上十大失败的预言
【原文标题】Top 10 Failed Predictions
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【原文链接】http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2097462_2097456,00.html?iid=moreontime
Harold Camping预言世界将在今天毁灭——当然他是在以前做出这样的判断。为了向他致敬，《时代周刊》总结了历史上10项最不靠谱的预言。
“我们都知道，这是世界末日。”
Harold Camping曾经预言世界将于2011年10月21日毁灭，这已经不是他第一次发出类似的预言了。1992年，这位传教士出版了一本书《1994?》，其中宣称在1994年9月中旬的某一天，基督将再临人间，世界随之毁灭。Camping利用圣经中的数字和日期进行计算得出了这个结论，当时他说“99.9%肯定结果是正确的”。但是1994年世界并没有毁灭。同样，1995年3月31日也没有什么事情发生，这是Camping在平安度过1994年9月之后给出的另一个世界毁灭的日期。他在后来还曾预言今年5月21是大限日，他在全国范围内大肆宣传，警告人们世界末日的降临。Camping在1995年接受《旧金山记事》的采访时说：“我就像一个狂喊狼来了的孩子，狼终究是没有出现，但是我丝毫不为此担忧。”
“世界是平的。”
综观所有失败的预言，这算的上是始作俑者。所有人都知道地球是圆的，对吗？不是这样的，荷马就认为它是平的。古代佛教的宇宙观认为世界像一个平平的盘子，希伯来经文也认为世界像一个圆形屋顶。中国古代有些人认为世界是一个正方形。当哥伦布在1492年出海航行时，很多欧洲人认为他将到达世界的边缘。一些学者指出，其实很早就出现了一些支持世界是圆形的理论了。柏拉图就曾经提出过地球是圆形的宇宙论，公元前6世纪的希腊哲学家毕达哥拉斯（没错，就是a² + b² = c²发现者）据说也同意这样的观点。公元前后，亚洲人认为地球就像鸡蛋中的蛋黄，伊斯兰教的学者在9世纪早期也提出过圆形世界的理论。西方对圆形世界的认可要晚一些，麦哲伦在1519年的环球航海似乎确认了圆形的假设。但是，我们主要讨论的是一些奇怪的预言，的确还有许多人，例如“地平面学会”依然坚持他们的观点。我们实在没什么话可讲，只能说，你们“平”淡无奇地错了。
“繁荣的景象将永远持续下去。”
工作的得意和失意就是决定于那一纸命中注定的声明，这是数理经济学家Irving Fisher在1929年悟出的一个道理。他曾经自信地宣称：“股市将永远在高位运行。”三天之后，股市惨跌，接下来是大规模失业、大萧条和长达十年的经济低迷。Fisher坚信市场具有内在的理性和效率，因此在经济崩溃的几个星期之后，他依然向投资者保证拐点很快就会出现。尽管经济在二战后的确开始复苏，但Fisher的短视泡沫是美国人再也不愿经历的事情了。
“科技？那是什么玩意？”
随着新型的平板电脑、智能手机、电脑了其它电子设备潮水般涌入市场，一片光明的科技未来似乎是一个无可辩驳的事实。但是在以前，不是所有人都这样认为的。当世界还处于科技创新令人眼花缭乱、难以理解的时候，即使那些科技产业的从业者也对其持久效应表示怀疑。1977年，数字设备公司的创始人Ken Olsen说：“不是所有人都需要一台电脑。”但是到2009年，美国大约80％的家庭都至少有一台电脑。二十世纪福克斯公司的制片人Darryl Zanuck在1946年说，电视机的生存寿命不会很长，因为“人们在每天晚上都盯着一个木头盒子，早晚会感到厌烦。”如今，对电视机的需求如此高涨，以至于人们可以通过上千种途经进行购买。至于互联网，天文学家Clifford Stoll曾经说它注定没有生存空间。他在1995年《新闻周刊》的专栏文章中说：“网络数据永远无法取代你手中的报纸；光盘永远无法取代一名优秀的教师；计算机网络永远无法改变政府的工作方式。”然而，显而易见的事实是，互联网毫无疑问是当代历史中最伟大的发明之一。直到最近，还有一些对iPhone持怀疑态度的言论。2007年，微软首席执行官Steve Ballmer说：“iPhone绝对没有机会攫取明显的市场份额，绝对没有。”可我们现在都直到后来的结果是什么样的。这或许就是在说明，今天我们认为绝不可能发生的时候，就是明天的潮流。有人对时间穿越感兴趣吗？
“四人吉他组合的时代已经结束了。”
1962年，台卡唱片公司一位高层对乐队经理Brian Epstein说：“甲壳虫乐队在演艺事业上没有希望。我们不喜欢这些孩子的歌声，乐队组合已经过失了，四人吉他组合更是没有希望。”现在看起来，说这些话的人肯定是被驴踢了脑袋，因为当时英国和美国都在迅速进入一个摇滚乐队的时代（其中很多都是四人吉他组合），而其中最耀眼的明星就是甲壳虫。但是直到1962年，甲壳虫依然只是在欧洲酒吧中边唱歌边梦想发达的一个组合。约翰•列侬和保罗•麦卡特尼甚至还没有写出自己的歌曲（只有唱给台卡试听的三首歌曲是原创）。由于披头四看起来并不那么受欢迎，台卡转而接受了另外两个组合Brian Poole和Tremeloes。我们似乎从未听过他们的作品。
千年虫
印证路德派和其它仇视科技者多年来发出的警告的这一天似乎终于要降临了：毁灭我们的不是罪恶和宗教预言，而是计算机。2000年1月1日新年钟声敲响的几个月之前，分析人士预测整个计算机网络即将崩溃，全球人口赖以储存、分享和分析信息的计算机系统面临大规模故障。问题的起因在于，很多计算机的程序仅记录年份的最后两位数字，所以2000年就会被认为是1900年，这会造成大规模数据混乱。但是，这些现象并没有发生。除了一些国家零星的断电、日本核电厂数据传输出现问题（没有威胁到安全）和美国间谍卫星网络数据接收临时中端的现象，新年就像往常一样伴随着街上的醉汉到来了。
“泰坦尼克永不沉没。”
如果泰坦尼克按照预期安全第完成首航，它将是一艘被人寄予无限厚望的宏伟的轮船。首航之前，船长Edward J. Smith说：“我不认为这艘船会发生任何重大事故，现代化的造船业已经完全能够克服这些问题。”制造商白星公司的副总裁Phillip Franklin说：“泰坦尼克绝无沉没的风险。”不幸的是，它没能见到这些预言成真。船撞上了冰山，沉没了，剩下的都是历史。但是，至少我们有机会欣赏到一部优秀的影片了。
“网络购物命不长久。”
今天，我们很难设想一个没有网络购物的世界，人们在实体店里寻找他们钟意的商品，然后通过电话和网络下订单。但是在互联网还没有出现之前的1966年，《时代周刊》发表了一篇文章，题目是《未来主义》，其中设想了2000年的世界是什么样子的。除了社会、实物和科技的变化之外，《时代周刊》还用宣判的口吻说，远程购物——如果可能的话——绝不会成为流行时尚，因为“女人喜欢走出家门，喜欢把玩商品，喜欢改主意。”这或许也没有错误，但依然无法阻止女人——还有男人——逐年增长的电子商务需求。实际上，网络购物目前呈直线上升趋势。仅在2011年第一季度，美国电子商务零售额就达到380亿美元，比去年同期增长了12％。必须承认，我们错了。
“心脏和脑外科手术——绝不会发生。”
人类的平均寿命比19世纪的时候延长了很多，在很大程度上是现代化的心脏和脑外科手术所起的作用。但是，以前曾经存在过一些疑虑，认为这样的手术永远不会出现。当时医学界普遍都对外科手术的进一步发展不感兴趣。英国医生John Eric Erichsen勋爵在1873年对维多利亚女王说：“腹部、胸部和脑部必须保持永久的封闭状态，避免任何人为外科行为的进入。”然而在1884年，出现了第一例脑外科手术，英国医生Rickman Godlee成功地取出了一颗脑瘤。11年之后，挪威医生Axel Cappelen在奥斯陆的国立医院实施了第一例心脏外科手术。Erichsen错了，但他并没有迟疑。
“历史就要结束了。”
哈佛学者Francis Fukuyama在1989年有关国家利益的一篇文章，最后演化成他最著名的一部作品，在三年后出版。随着苏联共产主义解体和东欧自由民主运动的兴起，Fukuyama认为所有单一民族国家很快都将成为自由的民主体制。Fukuyama憧憬了一个自然的“目的论”归宿，人类发展的顶峰就是基于民主和资本主义的社会。在相对乐观的年代中，《历史的终结》和《最后一人》等书为Fukuyama赢得了闪亮耀眼的地位，同时出现了一系列主张全球化的评论者和行动者，其中包括坚持“平面世界”理论的Thomas Friedman。但是，Fukuyama必须接受的事实是，历史并未结束，世界距离一个大规模欧盟的模样还很遥远。绝非民主的中国毫无争议地崛起，以及西方反动、极端的右翼活动，这让人们认为，Fukuyama的自由民主状态黯然失色。
原文：
Harold Camping's prediction that the world will end Friday, Oct. 21, 2011, is not his first such prediction. In 1992, the evangelist published a book called 1994?, which proclaimed that sometime in mid-September 1994, Christ would return and the world would end. Camping based his calculations on numbers and dates found in the Bible and, at the time, said he was "99.9% certain" that his math was correct. But the world did not end in 1994. Nor did it end on March 31, 1995 — another date Camping provided when September 1994 passed without incident. Or earlier this year on May 21, when Camping spurred a nationwide marketing campaign to warn people that the world was ending. "I'm like the boy who cried wolf again and again, and the wolf didn't come," Camping told the San Francisco Chronicle in 1995. "This doesn't bother me in the slightest."
The Earth Is Flat
By Elizabeth Dias
As far as failed predictions go, this one may be the original. Everyone knows the world is round, right? Not so. Homer thought it was flat. Ancient Buddhist cosmology agreed that earth was like a horizontal disk. Hebrew Scriptures suggested it might resemble a dome. Some in ancient China claimed it to be a square. And when Columbus sailed the ocean blue in 1492, many Europeans thought he might reach its edge. Some scholars suggest that a round-earth theory had more early support than one might think. Echoes of a round-earth cosmology can be heard in Plato, and 6th century B.C. Greek philosopher Pythagoras (yep, same a² + b² = c² guy) is said to have agreed. Around the time of Christ, an Asian belief held that the earth was like the yolk in an egg, and Muslim scholars supported a round earth by the 9th century. The Western world joined the round-earth campaign a little late, when Magellan's 1519 global voyage seemed to confirm the round hypothesis. Yet, as is the case with many strange predictions, a handful of believers like the Flat Earth Society still hold fast to their convictions. The rest of us would say however, they are, um, flat-out wrong.
Prosperity Will Never End
By Allison Berry
Careers can rise and fall on just one fateful statement, as mathematical economist Irving Fisher learned in 1929. "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau," he confidently predicted. Three days later, the stock market plunged into a historic collapse, which led to mass unemployment, the Great Depression and a decade of gloom. Fisher believed that the market was inherently rational and efficient; in the months following the crash, he continued to assure investors and insisted that a recovery was just around the corner. Though the economy finally improved after World War II, Fisher's short-lived bubble was, unfortunately, far from the last the U.S. would experience.
Technology? What's That?
By Erin Skarda
With an influx of new tablets, smart phones, computers and other devices constantly hitting the market, it's almost impossible to argue that the future of technology is anything but bright. But it didn't always seem that way. In the past, as the world struggled to understand the meteoric rise in technological innovation, even those who worked in the industry were skeptical of its staying power. In 1977, Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., stated, "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Yet in 2009, it was reported that approximately 80% of households in the U.S. had at least one computer. Darryl Zanuck, a movie producer at 20th Century Fox, said in 1946 that television wouldn't last because "people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." Now the demand for TV is so high that there are literally thousands of channels available for viewers' daily consumption. As for the Internet, that was also doomed to fail, according to astronomer Clifford Stoll. In a 1995 Newsweek column, Stoll said that "no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works." But, of course, the Internet is unquestionably one of the greatest inventions in modern history. There have even been more recent doubts about the iPhone. In 2007, Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, said, "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." Well, we all know how that turned out. This just goes to show that what's not considered possible today may be the wave of the future. Time travel, anyone?
Four-Piece Groups with Guitars Are Finished
By Josh Sanburn
"The Beatles have no future in show business," a Decca Records executive told the band's manager, Brian Epstein, in 1962. "We don't like your boys' sound. Groups are out; four-piece groups with guitars, particularly, are finished." It's almost inconceivable how wrong-headed this statement was, considering Britain and the U.S. were about to usher in the era of the modern rock-'n'-roll band (many of them four-piece guitar groups) via the greatest foursome of them all. But in 1962, the Beatles were still just another band playing clubs in Europe and trying to make it big. John Lennon and Paul McCartney hadn't even started writing many songs yet (only three songs played at the Decca audition were originals). With the Fab Four reportedly not too fab in their audition, Decca went with another band trying out at the same time, Brian Poole and the Tremeloes. Yeah, we've never listened to them either.
Y2K
By Frances Romero
It was the day that was supposed to finally prove what Luddites and other tech haters had been saying for so long: computers — not sin or religious prophecy come true — will bring us down. For months before the stroke of midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, analysts speculated that entire computer networks would crash, causing widespread dysfunction for a global population that had become irreversibly dependent on computers to hold, disseminate and analyze its most vital pieces of information. The problem was that many computers had been programmed to record dates using only the last two digits of every year, meaning that the year 2000 would register as the year 1900, totally screwing with the collective computerized mind. But it just wasn't so. Aside from a few scattered power failures in various countries, problems in data-transmission systems at some of Japan's nuclear plants (which did not affect their safety) and a temporary interruption in receipt of data from the U.S.'s network of intelligence satellites, the new year arrived with nothing more than the expected hangover.
The Titanic Is Unsinkable
By Terri Pous
If the Titanic had made a safe voyage as was intended, it would have been just another grandiose vessel with lofty expectations. Prior to the voyage, the ship's captain, Edward J. Smith, said, "I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that." Phillip Franklin, vice president of the White Star Line, which had produced the ship, added, "There is no danger that Titanic will sink." Unfortunately, it did not live up to those predictions. The ship sailed, hit an iceberg, and the rest is history. But, hey, at least we got a good movie out of it.
Online Shopping Will Flop
By Erin Skarda
Today it's difficult to imagine a world without online shopping, where people placed remote orders through telephones and went to actual stores to find what they were looking for. But in 1966, before the Internet even existed, TIME published an essay called "The Futurists," which imagined what the world would be like in the year 2000. Besides guessing the social, physical and technological changes in the world, TIME pontificated that remote shopping, while possible, would never become popular because "women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, like to be able to change their minds." That may be true, but it doesn't stop women — and men — from giving e-commerce a boost every year. In fact, online shopping seems to be trending upward, with approximately $38 billion in U.S. retail sales reported in the first quarter of 2011 alone — up 12% from the previous year. We admit, we were wrong.
Heart and Brain Surgery — Never Gonna Happen
By Terri Pous
The average human life span is significantly longer now than it was in the 19th century, and we have modern practices like heart and brain surgery partially to thank for that. But there used to be doubt that those surgeries could ever happen. Medical attitudes of that time reveal that some were not interested in making any surgical advances. "The abdomen, the chest and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon," announced Sir John Eric Erichsen, a British doctor appointed Surgeon Extraordinary to Queen Victoria, in 1873. In 1884, though, the first modern brain surgery was performed when British surgeon Rickman Godlee successfully removed a brain tumor. Eleven years after that, Norwegian surgeon Axel Cappelen performed the first heart surgery at Rikshospitalet in Oslo. Erichsen was wrong, but he wasn't in doubt.
The End of History Is Nigh
By Ishaan Tharoor
Harvard academic Francis Fukuyama's 1989 article in National Interest spawned his most famous work, published three years later. As Soviet communism collapsed and movements for freedom and democracy in Eastern Europe captured the world's imagination, Fukuyama suggested that the time was not far off when every nation-state would become a liberal democracy. Invoking the 19th century philosopher Hegel, who thought of history as a kind of evolutionary process, Fukuyama imagined a natural "teleological" end whereby the pinnacle of human development would be in societies based on democracy and capitalism. In an era of optimism, The End of History and the Last Man won Fukuyama near instant celebrity and influenced a whole swath of prominent commentators and advocates of globalization, like "earth is flat" proponent Thomas Friedman. But history, as Fukuyama surely accepts, has not ended. The world looks no closer to being one large European Union — and with the success of decidedly undemocratic China and the rise of reactionary, extremist right-wing movements throughout the West, some argue that it's Fukuyama's liberal democracy whose future lies in shadow.
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发表于 2011-10-27 10:20
发表于 2011-10-27 13:43
