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本帖最后由 weater76 于 2011-11-11 10:08 编辑
【中文标题】中国为什么不向伊朗施压
【原文标题】Why China Is Right Not to Yield to Pressure on Iranl
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【来源地址】http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/11/09/why-china-should-not-yield-to-pressure-on-iran/?xid=gonewsedit
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
Following the dissemination of the IAEA's latest report on Iran's nuclear program, we've now entered the predictable phase of hand-waving uproar. Short of a genuine smoking gun, the IAEA report has still emboldened those who seek tough action on Tehran. Days of war talk in Israel have padded calls in the West for a far tougher regime of sanctions on the Islamic Republic and now may prove an awkward sticking point in the U.S. presidential campaign.
Yet it's clear to all that sanctions at the U.N. Security Council won't fly — because, on one level, there isn't that much more to sanction and it's highly unlikely that Russia and China, veto-wielding members, will let even tighter measures pass. Both countries value their ties with Tehran. That's a reality many D.C. hawks and politicians, particularly those convinced of Iran's fundamental threat, find hard to stomach.
In today's New York Times, Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., suggests that the U.S. should use the new findings to put genuine pressure on China. He writes:
Over time, Chinese leaders have become convinced that Washington prioritizes bilateral trade with Beijing over security concerns about Iran, and that it therefore won't enact serious penalties for China's dealings with Iran. This has allowed Chinese officials to pay lip service to international efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program while quietly playing a key role in nurturing Tehran's nuclear quest. The result is clear: when it comes to Iran, China today isn't part of the solution; it's part of the problem…
Washington, worried about potentially destabilizing economic effects, has historically shied away from putting pressure on Beijing over its ties to Iran. But if the Obama administration is serious about halting Iran's nuclear program, it must do so by sanctioning companies like the China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or Cnooc, which has been developing Iran's mammoth North Pars natural gas field since 2006, and PetroChina (which supervises the import of some three million tons of liquefied natural gas annually from Iran). Both are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange and therefore subject to penalties under existing law.
There are a number of impractical points here. First, sanctioning globally influential Chinese state companies would prove a highly provocative act, one barely considered by the far more hawkish Bush Administration. To expect the White House to walk such a confrontational line — especially as much of the Western world looks imploringly to Beijing, cap in hand — is absurd.
Second, even if Iran is on its way toward an operational nuclear weapons program, it's still unclear why the simple fact of these capabilities ought to engender such unique moral outrage across the international community. No one in Washington is threatening diplomatic brinkmanship with China over its support of North Korea, a pariah state that's arguably far more unpredictable, threatening to its neighbors and advanced in its nuclear weapon capabilities than Iran.
Lastly, as my colleague Tony Karon points out, the stakes are too high for all invested in this oil-rich region for any strategist (short of some in Israel and Washington) to really want a game-changing conflagration to emerge. China and India, a non-permanent member of the current Security Council, depend considerably on Iranian oil and would be foolish to upset such a relationship. Perhaps it's not they — and their adherence to their own "Westphalian" national interests — that are the problem, but the bellicosity of some Americans and Israelis worked up by a threat that is still, ultimately, phantasmal.
随着国际原子能机构发布伊朗核计划的最新报告，我们现在又进入了一个鼓吹战争的新阶段。由于缺少其它的相关证据，原子能机构的报告激发起那些想对伊朗动武人们的想象。以色列人呼吁西方制裁带有伊斯兰强权政治色彩的伊朗，并牵涉到了美国总统大选。
但是，很明显联合国安理会的制裁不会轻易改变。在目前情况下，俄罗斯和中国不会让对伊朗更加严厉的制裁法案通过，毕竟这两个国家和伊朗关系密切。虽然这是华盛顿的鹰派政治家们所不愿接受的一个事实。
美国外交政策委员副主席宜兰•伯曼今天在《纽约时报》上说要利用新的调查结果给中国施压。
他说：“长久以来，中国领导人认为华盛顿把中美之间的贸易看得比伊朗核安全问题更重，华盛顿会因为中伊的密切关系而不敢对伊朗制定更加严厉的制裁政策。在伊朗正进行核实验的时候，中国只是在口头上赞成国际社会对伊朗核问题的制裁。总之，现在形势很明确，中国不会站在解决问题一方，而是会站在对立的另一方上。”
“担心经济不稳定的华盛顿历来回避来自和伊朗关系密切的中国压力。如果奥巴马政府想要认真制止伊朗的核计划，它就必须处罚从2006年以来就在伊朗北帕尔斯天然气田进行时候开采的中海油公司和每年负责进口三百万吨伊朗天然气的中石油公司。这两者目前都在纽约交易所上市，在现有的法律法规内都能给予它们处罚。”
这里有几点情况需要考虑。第一，制裁具有巨大世界影响力的中国国有企业本身就是一项具有挑战性的行为，人们甚至会认为奥巴马政府比布什政府还要强硬。期望白宫走这条对抗路线是荒谬的，尤其是许多西方世界国家看起来是在恭恭敬敬哀求中国的时候。
第二，即便伊朗正在进行核武器研制，也不能让人明白为什么会在国际上产生如此强大的谴责。因为受中国支持的流氓国家朝鲜拥有比伊朗更加先进的核武器技术，对于华盛顿是更大的危险，但是居然没有人站出来谴责它。
最后，正如我的同事托尼卡隆指出，对各国战略家而言，在这个盛产石油的地区推行激烈的变革的风险巨大。对于依赖伊朗石油的中国和印度而言，它们会竭力保持伊朗现有的稳定局面，因为这是它们的国家利益所在。这就使得美国和以色列好战分子发动战争想法只能停留在幻想层面。
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发表于 2011-11-11 10:14
