【Zero Hedge 2011.11.10】伯克南知道，他这一次无能为力

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【中文标题】伯南克知道，他这一次无能为力
【原文标题】Bernanke Knows He’s Powerless This Time Around
【登载媒体】Zero Hedge

【来源地址】

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/bernanke-knows-he%E2%80%99s-powerless-time-around
【译 者】Huabianr

【翻译方式】人工

【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译文】

During Round 1 of the Great Crisis, the US tried tocombat the collapse of the private banking sector (especially the TBTFs) byshifting debt onto the public’s balance sheet and printing money to buyTreasuries so we could maintain a massive deficit (north of $1 trillion).

第一轮危机期间，为了防止银行（尤其是那些大银行）倒闭，美国政府将银行债务转移到公共财政，并发行钞票购买债券，这样才导致了巨大的财政赤字（超过10亿美元）。

Put another way, the powers that be attempted to solve aMASSIVE debt implosion by issuing more debt. Aside from the fact this isoutright insane, the problem with this is that we’re at a point of debtsaturation in the system.

也就是说，政府通过发行更多债务来解决债务膨胀。暂且不论这种举动愚蠢至极，问题是现在我们的金融系统中充斥着债务。

Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors notes that from 1917 to 1952each new Dollar of US debt brought on roughly $4 worth of GDP. From 2000-2010,you got seven cents of GDP growth for every $1 in new debt issued.

对冲基金公司KyleBass of Hayman Advisors指出，1917年至1952年，每发行1美元就会为GDP贡献约4美元；而2000年至2010年，这一数字只有7美分。

Put another way, each new $1 in debt issued today is producingless and less returns. By some estimates we’ve even reached the point at whichnew debt issuance is actually a net drag on the economy as interest paymentseat into growth.

也就是说，新发的每一美元债务带来的回报越来越少。有人甚至认为，新发债务拖累了经济，因为利息偿还已经抵消了所带来的利润。

Ben Bernanke knows this, and has started to hint at it inhis recent speeches and Q&A sessions with the public. Indeed, if you readbetween the lines of his statements starting in May, it’s clear that he hasrealized he cannot solve the US’s debt problems and that QE has failed.

伯南克对此心知肚明，在最近的公开演讲和问答环节中，他也间接地提到了这些。你细看他今年5月以来的演讲，就会明白他已经意识到自己无力应对债务问题而且量化宽松货币政策已经失败。

Q. Since both housing and unemployment have not recoveredsufficiently, why are you not instantly embarking on QE3? — Michael A.Kamperman, Waco, Tex.

提问：房产业和失业率并没有明显恢复，为什么不立即启动第三轮量化宽松货币政策？

Mr. Bernanke: “Going forward, we’ll have to continue to make judgments about whetheradditional steps are warranted, but as we do so, we have to keep in mindthat we do have a dual mandate, that we do have to worry about both the rate ofgrowth but also the inflation rate…

“The trade-offsare getting — are getting less attractive at this point. Inflation hasgotten higher. Inflation expectations are a bit higher. It’s not clear that wecan get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflationrisk. And in my view, if we’re going to have success in creating a long-run,sustainable recovery with lots of job growth, we’ve got to keep inflation undercontrol. So we’ve got to look at both of those — both parts of the mandateas we — as we choose policy”

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/28/how-bernanke-answered-your-questions/

伯克南：“眼下，我们必须考虑是否要采取进一步措施，在这个过程中，我们必须兼顾增长率和通胀率…。

目前，这两个因素的影响还不很明显。通胀率已经很高。通胀预期也很高。没有进一步的通胀威胁，增长率能否显著提高，我们还无法预知。我认为，要制定长远的、可持续的、能够增加就业率的经济恢复政策，就要控制通胀。因此，在制定下一步政策时，我们必须反复衡量这两个因素。”

Pessimistic Bernanke Fed Admits QE Has Failed In FOMCStatement

In its latest FOMC statement, the Bernanke Fed hasadmitted the economy continues to remain depressed, essentially admitting thatboth programs of long-term asset purchases, or quantitative easing, have failedto prop up output after what has been the worst recession since the GreatDepression.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/08/09/pessimistic-bernanke-and-fomc-practically-admit-qe-has-failed/

在其最新的联邦公开市场委员会的声明中，伯南克领导的美联储已经承认经济持续低迷。他也基本上承认，大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退开始后， 长期资产购买和量化宽松政策两项计划都未能起效。

“Monetary policy can do a lot, but monetary policy is nota panacea.” -- Ben Bernanke 9/29/11

“货币政策有一定的作用，但不是万能药。”伯克南2011年9月29日

U.S. "close to faltering," Fed ready to act:Bernanke

Asked whether another round of bond purchases, known asquantitative easing, was in store, Bernanke was noncommittal.

"We never take anything off the table because wedon't know where the economy is going to go. We have no immediate plans todo anything like that," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/us-usa-fed-bernanke-idUSTRE79337C20111004

有人问道，新一轮量宽政策会否出台，伯克南含糊其辞。

“经济前景并不明朗，我们无法判断。我们没有QE3之类的及时计划。”他说。

Central banks may need to burst bubbles: Bernanke

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesdaythat central banks may need to resort to monetary policy to combat assetbubbles, although regulation should be a first line of defense.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/us-usa-fed-bernanke-idUSTRE79H5IR20111018

美联储主席伯克南周二说，尽管规章制度应当是第一道防线，但中央银行可能需要借助货币政策来应对资产泡沫。

Look at the progression there. As far back as May 2011,Bernanke admitted the benefits of QE were less attractive. Now he’s not onlyadmitting that asset bubbles exist (something Greenspan never admitted) butthat Central Banks may even need to “burst” them!?!?

看看这里的层进关系。2011年5月，伯克南承认量宽政策收效不大。现在他不止承认存在资产泡沫（格林斯潘从未承认），甚至承认中央银行需要“挤掉”泡沫！？！？

In plain terms, the Fed will NOT be launching anotherround of QE or major policy changes until the next round of the Great Crisishits in full force. And by that time it will be pointless anyway as once thedefaults begin, the leverage in the global banking system will implode rapidly.

总之，在下一轮经济危机全面爆发之前，美联储不会采取新一轮量宽政策和其他政策。而且届时这些政策无论如何也不会起什么作用的，因为一旦违约开始，其影响会在世界银行系统中迅速蔓延。

It is no longer a matter of “if” for defaults, it’s amatter of “when.” And we are going to be seeing defaults in the individual,corporate, banking, and sovereign space. This is going to be the Great DebtReset: the time when the market calls out the global debt bubble and we enter aperiod of severe economic contraction accompanied by soaring interest rates.

下一轮危机不是“是否”会来的问题，而是“何时”会来的问题。我们会看到危机会降临在个人、公司、银行和国家的头上。这将会是一次重大的债务洗牌：当市场爆出全球债务泡沫的时候，我们即将进入经济严重衰退、银行利率急剧攀升的时代。

In a best-case scenario, here’s how things will play out:

1) Greek default/ European default contagion will startbefore the end of 2011.

2) Japan and other major developed countries begin toface debt issues and default risks mid- to late-2012

3) US debt default/ systemic failure (2012-2013)

乐观的戏剧情节如下：

1）希腊债务危机/欧洲债务危机将于2011年末之前开始蔓延。

2）日本和其他主要发达国家将于2012年中期或后期面临债务危机。

3）美国将于2012年到2013年爆发全面危机。

The worst-case scenario is that everything comes to ahead in the next six months. Remember, the slow motion train wreck that isGreece has been playing out since the end of 2009. The market is alreadypricing in a Greek default. And Germany has even alluded to the fact that it’spreparing for a Greek default that will feature at least a 60% haircut. Heck,France has even announced plans to nationalize 2-3 banks “just in case.”

最坏的情节是：一切将会在未来6个月中集中显现。记住，危机始于2009年的希腊。希腊违约，市场开始重新估值，德国甚至断言，市场会缩水60%。法国甚至可能会将两三家银行国有化。

Folks, what happened in 2008 was literally just the warmup. The REAL DEAL is coming in the next 14 months. And it’s going to involvecorporate, financial, and sovereign defaults.

各位啊，2008年的危机只是开始，真正的危机会在接下来的14个月中发生。到时，企业、金融系统和国家债务都将爆发。

On that note, if you’re looking for specific ideas toprofit from this mess, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains andprofits for any investor.

如果你想在这种情况下获利，我的《挺过四倍于2008的危机》报告会告诉你：如何将潜在的危机转化为获利的机会。

Within its nine pages I explain precisely how the SecondRound of the Crisis will unfold, where it will hit hardest, and the best meansof profiting from it (the very investments my clients used to make triple digitreturns in 2008).

在9页的报告中我详细阐述了第二轮危机将会如何展开，哪里最为严重，以及从中获利的最佳方式（2008年我的客户就是用这种投资获得了3倍的回报）。

Best of all, this report is 100% FREE. To pick up yourcopy today simply go to: http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on the OURFREE REPORTS tab.

这个报告完全免费。请登录网站http://www.gainspainscapital.com，点击OUR FREE REPORTS链接获取。

Good Investing!

Graham Summers

祝你投资成功。

PS. We also feature four other reports ALL devoted tohelping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from theSecond Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s my proprietary Crash Indicatorwhich has caught every crash in the last 25 years or the best most profitablestrategy for individual investors looking to profit from the upcoming US DebtDefault, my reports covers it.

另外，我们还有四项报告，都是用来帮你保护好你自己、你的财产以及你的亲人，最终平安度过第二次危机。过去25年中，我提出的“危机指示”理论成功预测了每次危机。你会在我的报告中找到。除此之外，如果你想在接下来的美国债务危机中获利，我的报告将告诉你最佳的投资战略。