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本帖最后由 weater76 于 2011-11-21 14:28 编辑
【中文标题】洪博培：中国也有政治
【原文标题】China Has Politics, Too
【登载媒体】华尔街日报
【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577041863873047648.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
【译 者】 WilliamRUC
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
The economic future of the U.S. is bound up with China. So how should the government manage that relationship—not only to boost the U.S. economy but win over Chinese leaders on key issues like human rights and intellectual property?
The Wall Street Journal's Alan Murray spoke with Jon Huntsman, former U.S. ambassador to China and governor of Utah, and currently a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. Joining the discussion were Chinese entrepreneur Zhang Xin and Oleg Deripaska, a Russian businessman with extensive experience in China.
Here are edited excerpts of their discussion.
美国经济的未来与中国紧密联系。美国政府如何处理这一关系——不仅仅推动我国经济发展，还要在人权和知识产权等关键议题上说服中国领导人？
华尔街日报的艾伦•美利（Alan Murray）与前美国驻华大使、犹他州前州长和现共和党总统候选人洪博培展开了对话。参加对话的还有中国企业家张欣（音）和在中国开展业务的俄罗斯商人奥列格•德里帕斯卡（Oleg Deripaska）。
以下是经编辑后的谈话内容。
No Need for a Fight
ALAN MURRAY: Henry Kissinger's book on China raises the prospect of an epic rivalry between the U.S. and China that parallels the rivalry between England and Germany in the 20th century. Do you think that's realistic?
JON HUNTSMAN: I think it's totally avoidable. As I heard repeatedly serving as U.S. ambassador in Beijing, "We have politics in China, too." To be successful in Chinese politics, you have to have certain key constituencies behind you, and you've got to say certain things in the run-up to the Party Congress that is going to put you in office, just like politics here.
Next year holds elections for the United States. It also holds sweeping changes for China in terms of leadership in the 18th Party Congress. So what do you expect to hear in the run-up? Not that the United States is a reliable, friendly partner, but that we don't like the military presence. We don't like the trading relationship. We don't like the unilateralism, the moralistic attitudes of the Americans, they're hemming us in.
After the 18th Party Congress, Xi Jinping will rise up. After a year of consolidating power, which will put us in 2013 or early 2014, I believe Xi Jinping is going to have three years of run room where we have an opportunity, if we have the right leadership here, that would allow us to begin embarking upon a strategic dialogue with the Chinese.
没有必要对抗
美利：基辛格关于中国的书将中国和美国的竞争预测为类似于20世纪英国和德国的竞争。你认为这有现实可能吗？
洪博培：我认为这完全可以避免。我作为驻华大使在中国时，多次听到“我们中国也有政治”。为了在中国政治中取得成功，你必须取得关键后台的支持，为获得权力，你也必须在党委会中说特定的话，正如我们这边的政治一样。
明年美国迎来大选。而中国的十八大上也会迎来领导层换届。你期望在换届中听到什么？当然不会说美国是值得信赖的友好伙伴，而会说我们不喜欢美国的军事存在。他们要说我们不喜欢现在的贸易关系，不喜欢单边主义，不喜欢美国的道德观——他们包围我们。
党的十八大之后，习近平将成为下一代领导人核心。通过一年巩固权力后，大概在2013年或者2014年初，我相信习近平会给我们提供三年的机遇期。如果我们这边有正确的领导，就有可能开展与中国的战略对话。
MR. MURRAY: But that's a long time to wait.
MR. HUNTSMAN: That's just the reality of where we are. It means you'll have certain political realities on the trade side. On the security side, getting China's cooperation on Iran or North Korea will become that much more difficult, particularly when you've got candidates in the race who are talking about slapping a unilateral tariff on China for currency manipulation.
MR. MURRAY: You're referring to Gov. Romney.
MR. HUNTSMAN: I'm referring to Gov. Romney. There are certain things that could make the situation really bad for this country at a time when we can least afford it. I say the currency issue's going to take care of itself.
MR. MURRAY: Is currency manipulation a real problem?
MR. HUNTSMAN: Of course. It's gone on for a long time. The renminbi has appreciated 30% in the last several years. It will continue to at a rate of maybe 5% to 8%. Because China is driven by its own interests to revalue the renminbi based upon market realities, they will arrive at a point in the years to come where they'll have more of a market-based currency. Whether we tell them to do it or not, they will arrive at that point.
You certainly don't impose tariffs. As a former trade ambassador, I'm not sure how you do it through the World Trade Organization. There's no provision that allows one to do it through the WTO. It's unprecedented. And then what happens? The Chinese will then take the case to the WTO. Two years are wasted on nonsense. And you've blown through bandwidth that otherwise should've been used on intellectual-property protection, expanding market access for financial services and insurance, and working on regional security issues.
美利：但是要等很长时间。
洪博培：这是我们面临的现实。在贸易方面脱离不了政治现实。在安全上，求得中国在伊朗和朝鲜问题上的合作会更加困难，尤其在你有总统候选人在汇率操控上抽打中国耳光的时候。
美利：你指的是罗姆尼州长。
洪博培：我指的是罗姆尼州长。有些事情会对国家造成很大的危害，我们无法承受。我想说的是汇率问题。
美利：汇率操纵真是一个问题吗？
洪博培：当然，这已经持续一段时间了。过去几年里人民币升值了30%，也许还会继续升值5%到8%。因为中国基于市场的现实，为了保证自己的利益重新对人民币估值，未来他们一定会让汇率由市场决定。无论我们是否要求，这一天终会到来。
你当然不能提高征收关税。作为一名前贸易官员，我不知道你们现在通过WTO是如何操作的。WTO没有允许那么做的规定。这是前所未有的。然后发生了什么呢？中国人会把贸易争端案提交到WTO。两年时间白白地浪费了。你浪费了本应该用于知识产权保护、金融服务与保险的市场拓展和地区安全问题的精力。
MR. MURRAY: Do you think anyone will cast their vote based on the candidates' views about China?
MR. HUNTSMAN: In those town-hall meetings we have, we talk about rebuilding the manufacturing muscle in America. How is that going to happen? We talk about the tax reform that will be necessary, the regulatory fixes to create a more transparent and predictable environment. You talk to folks about rebuilding our manufacturing muscle by taking advantage of the investment that flows in a knee-jerk fashion into the China market and has for a long time.
That's changing. Unemployment's going to spike in China. With unemployment you've got a larger itinerant work force roaming the countryside. That puts pressures on the large eastern cities, and that results in political instability and uncertainty.
And I think the investment dollar that always just lands in China is going to be looking for an alternative. This country would be absolutely nuts if we didn't position ourselves to be that alternative. It's not going to happen overnight, but we can start taking the steps to manufacture here.
美利：你觉得人们应该基于候选人对中国的看法来投票吗？
洪博培：我们在镇政府召开的集会中，我们讨论重建美国制造业基础。然而怎么发生呢？我们谈到税制改革尤为必要，创造一个更透明和可预测的环境。你要对老百姓说需要利用长期以来向中国的投资潮流来重建我们的制造业基础。
这种情况正在改变。中国的失业率正在加大。因为失业，大量流动人口晃来晃去。这给东部的大城市增添了压力，并导致了政治上的不稳定和不确定性。
我认为习惯于投往中国的美元应该寻找一个替代地了。如果我们没有第二选择，这个国家会让人感觉很困难。这些不会一夜之间发生，但是我们可以现在开始准备。
MR. MURRAY: But then you need a strong Chinese market as the recipient.
MR. HUNTSMAN: Of course. The Chinese market, with the largest consumer class in recent history, is going to be a vacuum for our products.
MR. MURRAY: How can we do what you're talking about if companies don't feel their intellectual property is safe overseas?
MR. HUNTSMAN: We can make a more aggressive outreach to the emerging entrepreneurial class of China, saying, "This is not America's issue. This is yours. This is your intellectual property that increasingly you're developing that is viable on the global economic stage." Then you couple that with selective outreach to the municipalities and the provinces that actually want to work with you on it.
MR. MURRAY: What about human rights?
MR. HUNTSMAN: I think there is an opening here. Xi Jinping, who's a fairly pragmatic guy, is going to consolidate power. He's going to have two or three, maybe four years, of run room. Our job then in our U.S.-China relationship is to infuse shared values into the relationship to give it the glue and the staying power that will make it successful in the decades to come.
MR. MURRAY: On the scale of challenges that the next president of the United States will face, how high is this one?
MR. HUNTSMAN: I would argue that Iran is the most transcendent foreign-policy challenge, which could take a lot of bandwidth out of the Oval Office. But on a day-to-day management basis, when it comes to economics, security, trade and investment, there's only one relationship that matters in the world. The United States and China are now on the world stage.
美利：但是我们需要一个类似中国一样的巨大市场。
洪博培：没错。拥有最广大消费者的中国市场对我们的产品而言是个真空。
美利：如果美国公司感觉他们的知识产权在海外不安全，我们能怎么做？
洪博培：我们可以对中国的企业家们采取更严厉的行动。我们可以说：“这不仅仅是美国的问题，这是你们自己的问题。你们自己的知识产权在增长，在世界舞台上被人使用。”你可以选择与有意愿合作的省市合作。
美利：人权问题如何呢？
洪博培：我觉得会有开放。即将获得权力的习近平是个相当务实的家伙。他拥有两到三年，也许四年的运作时间。我们在中美关系的任务就是注入共同的价值观，未来数十年中慢慢实现中国人权问题的转变。
美利：就下任美国总统面临的挑战相比，现任总统的挑战多大？
洪博培：我认为伊朗会是最大的外交政策挑战，会花费白宫椭圆形办公室很多精力。但就日常管理而言，比如经济、安全、贸易和投资，全世界只有一种关系重要。那就是世界舞台上的中国和美国。
Losing Trust?
MR. MURRAY: Xin, please respond to the governor's vision about where we're headed.
ZHANG XIN: I think that China will face major challenges in the near term. With every generation of leaders, the power base has become weaker and weaker. When you go on the Chinese blogs, you will see how little credibility the Chinese government has among the Chinese people. I think that will be the major challenge. How do you address a country where the governing power is losing the trust of the people?
MR. MURRAY: Oleg, we've seen some things in the last couple of years that might suggest the beginnings of a new Russia/China axis.
OLEG DERIPASKA: Russia definitely would like to benefit from China's growth and Chinese economic development. We have a huge economy hungry for resources. We have a new opportunity with components developed in China and which are very beneficial for our enterprise. It will be an economic partnership. It wouldn't be a political partnership, just because we're quite different animals.
MR. MURRAY: Is it possible, given the problems in Europe and the relative stagnation in the U.S., for China to continue to grow at 8%, 9%, 10% or higher?
MS. ZHANG: If you leave it to the market, yes, no problem. The potential problem is the government. Right now, the government is moving backward from really loving the market to not trusting the market.
失去信任？
美利：张欣，你对洪博培前州长的看法有什么回应？
张欣：我认为中国下一代领导人面临重大挑战。随着领导人一代一代变换，执政基础越来越薄弱了。当你登陆中国的博客，你会发现中国政府在人民心目中的可信度如此之低。我认为这会是最大的挑战。当政府不被人民信任时，你如何管理一个国家？
美利：奥列格，过去两年中发生的一些事可能标志着中俄轴心的新开端。
奥列格：俄罗斯当然希望从中国崛起和经济发展中获得好处。我们的庞大经济体渴求资源。我们在中国的发展有了新的机遇，对我们的企业来说非常有利。这是一种经济伙伴关系，而不是政治同盟。因为我们完全是不一样的国家。
美利：在欧洲危机和美国相对停滞的情况，中国有没有可能继续保持8%、9%、10%甚至更高的增长呢？
张欣：如果一切都是市场行为，是的，没有问题。潜在的问题在于政府。现在，政府从热爱市场退步成不信任市场了。
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-11-21 14:25
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显身卡
发表于 2011-11-21 14:44
