By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
Watching the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Hawaii last week, I had a feeling we were entering a new phase of Asian geopolitics. For decades now, those summits have been occasions for Asian countries to worry about U.S. commitment to Asia. How strong is it? Who does Washington back? Will we stay engaged?
The Obama Administration has made clear that America is in Asia for good and that it might actually increase its presence in the region. But the real concerns are no longer about Washington but rather about Beijing.
Countries in Asia and around the world are worrying about China.
In 2010, as China asserted its sovereignty over disputed waters and islands in the South China Sea, it rattled neighbors from Japan to South Korea to Vietnam. As these countries watch China's military modernization, they worry more.
It's not just in Asia, of course. Take a look at Africa, where China's investments and activities are now becoming part of those countries' domestic politics. The recent elections in Zambia, for example, were won by a candidate who promised to take on the Chinese. By some accounts, the Chinese have virtual control over that country's economy. This is because Zambia is a huge copper exporter and Chinese state-owned companies are deeply involved in that business. And it is a sign of China's power that that candidate, who is now president, has had to make nice with the Chinese and threw a lunch for Chinese investors last week. This might explain it: Copper exports produce two-thirds of the government’s revenues.
The United States is also witnessing new levels of anxiety about Chinese business practices. The Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, made a stunningly tough statement about China recently:
"China is on almost every dimension cheating. We got to recognize that. They're manipulating their currency and by doing so they're holding down the price of Chinese goods and making sure their products are artificially low-priced. It's predatory pricing. It's killing jobs in America."
This is remarkable because it breaks with 40 years of Republican foreign policy. Since Nixon and Kissinger opened China to the world, the Republican strategy has been to engage China and not condemn it. That Mitt Romney is changing tells us that the popular mood towards China in the United States is now very hostile.
People keep saying that America needs a new China strategy. But I think if you see how many countries are wondering about Beijing, the truth is that China needs a new China strategy.
Beijing needs to recognize that it has become a world power, that its every move is now deeply analyzed, and that it is expected to play by the rules - indeed, it is expected to help maintain the rules.
Will it? That's one of the big questions of this new century.
Zakaria: Will the North Koreans rise up?http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/14/zakaria-will-the-north-koreans-rise-up/
By Fareed Zakaria, CNNI noticed a strange item in the news this week. An estimated 200 North Koreans are stranded in Libya right now, among them doctors and nurses whose services are much needed back home. Why are they there? Why can't they go back?Well, it turns out that they were sent to Libya to earn desperately needed hard currency for North Korea's tyrant, Kim Jong-Il. But now, despite Gadhafi's death and the changing circumstances, he'd rather these essential workers stay away. The same goes for hundreds of other doctors, nurses, technicians and other workers in Tunisia and Egypt.Why? The Arab spring.The Dear Leader doesn't want these people, who have seen street protests succeed and dictatorships fall, to return and talk about it. In fact, editorials in South Korean newspapers say that only 1% of North Koreans have even heard of the Arab spring. But how you would have such an exact figure beats me.What we can say for sure is that the North Korean press has simply not reported on any of the popular uprisings of 2011, obviously for fear of sparking protests within North Korea. In fact, Pyongyang issued a statement in March simply saying Libya's dismantling of its nuclear weapons program made it more vulnerable to western intervention. In other words, 'We, the North Koreans, will keep our nukes as our insurance policy against regime change.' So don't expect Pyongyang to disarm anytime soon. The regime interprets the fall of Gadhafi as a cautionary tale. Don't disarm; don't try to talk to the west; don't open up.Meanwhile, the suffering of the North Korean people continues. Just last week, UNICEF reported that millions of children there are at risk of being severely malnourished. These children will be more vulnerable to disease and stunted growth. And there's little hope that the government has the ability to help even if it wanted to.There's been a major shortage of food for years now compounded by adverse weather conditions and a suspension of food aid programs from the U.S. and South Korea. Even China, Pyongyang's only ally, has cut food aid.So what happens next? No one predicted the Arab Spring, but can one predict a North Korean Fall? Not really. Most of the tools of popular revolt these days are unavailable in North Korea. Only 400,000 people have mobile phones. That's 1.5% of a population of 24 million. Getting a phone requires connections to the regime. Internet penetration rates aren't available but they're estimated to be just as low. There's no Twitter, no Facebook, no YouTube, no Al Jazeera to coalesce the masses.So bottom-up change does not look like it's going to happen any time soon. So perhaps change could come when there's change at the top. Kim Jong-Il is 70 years old. It's been reported he's had a stroke and has had cancer. And he's picked his successor in a rushed manner.But the army, intelligence apparatus and the police appear to be solidly behind him and his family. We'll probably never know what's really going on in North Korea, and there is little appetite in China, the one country with influence in North Korea, to force change in Pyongyang.But it is worth remembering that in a time of mass global unrest and popular uprisings, North Korea remains a highly secretive, brutal dictatorship enslaving its people - arguably the world's worst regime.
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发表于 2011-11-30 09:29
