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本帖最后由 diver18 于 2011-12-1 10:32 编辑
Georgetown students shed light on China’s tunnel system for nuclear weapons
By William Wan, Published: November 30
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/georgetown-students-shed-light-on-chinas-tunnel-system-for-nuclear-weapons/2011/11/16/gIQA6AmKAO_story.html
Phillip A. Karber, right, meets with his Asian Arms Control Project students, from left, William Kim, Nick Yarosh and Nick Iacono
.From left, William Kim, Ben Buchanan, Iacopo Lash, Nick Iacono and Nick Yarosh meet with Phillip A. Karber, who spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.
For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.
Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.
The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.
The study is yet to be released, but already it has sparked a congressional hearing and been circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, including the Air Force vice chief of staff.
Most of the attention has focused on the 363-page study’s provocative conclusion — that China’s nuclear arsenal could be many times larger than the well-established estimates of arms-control experts.
“It’s not quite a bombshell, but those thoughts and estimates are being checked against what people think they know based on classified information,” said a Defense Department strategist who would discuss the study only on the condition of anonymity.
The study’s critics, however, have questioned the unorthodox Internet-based research of the students, who drew from sources as disparate as Google Earth, blogs, military journals and, perhaps most startlingly, a fictionalized TV docudrama about Chinese artillery soldiers — the rough equivalent of watching Fox’s TV show “24” for insights into U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
But the strongest condemnation has come from nonproliferation experts who worry that the study could fuel arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons in an era when efforts are being made to reduce the world’s post-Cold War stockpiles.
Beyond its impact in the policy world, the project has made a profound mark on the students — including some who have since graduated and taken research jobs with the Defense Department and Congress.
“I don’t even want to know how many hours I spent on it,” said Nick Yarosh, 22, an international politics senior at Georgetown. “But you ask people what they did in college, most just say I took this class, I was in this club. I can say I spent it reading Chinese nuclear strategy and Second Artillery manuals. For a nerd like me, that really means something.”
For students, an obsession
The students’ professor, Phillip A. Karber, 65, had spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But it was his early work in defense that cemented his reputation, when he led an elite research team created by Henry Kissinger, who was then the national security adviser, to probe the weaknesses of Soviet forces.。。。
美教授:中国挖掘3000英里地道 暗藏核弹
http://news.boxun.com/news/gb/army/2011/12/201112010814.shtml
(博讯北京时间2011年12月01日 转载)
(中国日报) 「华盛顿邮报」报导,美国乔治城大学教授卡伯和学生长期对中国大陆二砲部队进行研究。他们在未发表的报告中指出,中国挖掘长达3000英里的地下隧道,暗藏核子弹头。
根据卡伯(Phillip Karber)与多名大学生在课堂内外进行的非正式研究,卡伯认为中国二砲部队已经挖掘长达3000英里(4828公里)长,等于由波士顿至旧金山距离的地下隧道,里面暗藏核子弹头,数量远比限武专家所估计中国解放军拥有的核弹,超出数倍。
卡伯接受华邮访问指出,根据地下通道的数量及增加的飞弹部署,中国解放军拥有的核弹数量最多可达3000枚,远超过国际社会多年来估计中国可能有80到400枚的核弹。 (博讯 boxun.com)
卡伯强调,中国军事装备与部署缺乏透明度,又无须遵守禁止核子扩散条约(Non-Proliferation Treaty),推论有它的价值。不过,有中国军事专家认为,卡伯与学生的研究荒谬,缺乏可信度,研究方法过于松散。
美国智库中国大陆学者石明凯(Mark Stokes)向华邮表示,「毫无疑问中国已投资挖掘地道,关注中国大陆军事动态并提出质疑有其必要性。」
这篇长达363页非正式的研究报告,虽然尚未正式公布,但已私下在美国五角大厦与智库间流传,国会甚至有意邀请卡伯举行听证会。美国国防部8月公布的2011年中国军力评估报告,也引用卡伯与学生研究的部分内容。
曾在冷战时期任职于美国国防部的卡伯,在四川汶川地震期间,得知中国大陆大量辐射专家进入灾区,并见到有些山坡过度坍塌,引发研究二砲部队挖掘地道的高度兴趣,并号召学生对中国大陆内部称为「地下万里长城」的地下通道进行研究。
卡伯和学生引用大量网路下载的数据、人民解放军教材、新闻报导、电视剧及解放军内部资料进行非一般教室内的课后研究,许多学生乐此不疲。团队中虽然只有1、2人精通中文,不过透过翻译软体,语言不是问题。
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