本帖最后由 greycastle11 于 2011-12-7 11:01 编辑
【纽约时报12.3】中国会失足吗？可别在这上打赌 [复制链接] standards, 2011, 纽约时报, economic,another Will ChinaStumble? Don’t Bet on It By STEVEN RATTNERPublished: December 2, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/03/opinion/will-china-stumble-dont-bet-on-it.html
HARDLY a day goes by without news of yet another economicproblem facing China.A frothy real estate market. Quickly rising wages. A weakening manufacturingsector. Tightening lending standards. The list can seem endless andfrightening. 几乎每天都有新闻报道中国又面临了一个新的经济问题。房地产市场泡沫，快速上涨的薪资，制造业的疲软，紧锁的信贷标准。这一系列无止境的问题似乎很令人恐慌。 file:///C:/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image002.jpgfile:///C:/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image002.jpgfile:///C:/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image002.jpg 
Enlarge This Image点击放大 file:///C:/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image002.jpg Alexandra Falagara But after a recent visit to China, I remain staunchlyoptimistic that it will continue to be the world’s greatest machine foreconomic expansion. While developed countries bump along with little growth, China’s grossdomestic product is expected to increase by 9.2 percent in 2011 and an equallyastonishing 8.5 percent next year. 但是在访问了中国之后，我坚定并乐观地认为它将继续成为世界上经济扩张最大的国家。在别的发达国家艰难地增长一点点GDP值的时候，中国2011年的GDP值已经上涨了达9.2个百分点，基本等同于明年也将上涨8.5个百分点。 The country pulses with energy and success, a caldron ofeconomic ambition larded with understandable self-confidence. Visit the GeneralMotors plant on the outskirts of Shanghai andwatch Buicks churned out churned out by steadily moving assembly lines almostindistinguishable from those in plants in Michigan 中国充满着能量，它的成功，可以说是由一个沸腾着的政治野心和强大的自信心所达成的。我们拜访了上海市郊的通用汽车的厂址后，发现别克汽车只是由稳步装配的生产线大量炮制出来的的产物，几乎与在密西根的工厂生产出来的没有两样。 That shouldn’t surprise, as G.M. strives for uniformityacross its Chinese facilities. Perhaps more startling is that G.M. achievesAmerican levels of productivity, quality and worker safety — with pay that is asmall fraction of levels in the United States. 这也不令人惊讶，在中国，通用汽车这种追求产品的一致性。更为令人震惊的是，通用汽车产品的生产力、质量、工人安全已经达到了美国标准，而它的工资只是美国标准的一小部分。 This illustrates China’s great strength: its abilityto relentlessly grind down costs by combining high labor efficiency with wagesthat remain extraordinarily low. At Foxconn’s largest plant, in Shenzhen,420,000 Chinese earning about $188 per month assemble electronic components formega customers like Apple, Hewlett-Packard and Dell. 这也就解释了中国的优势：以低工资高效率的劳动力大幅度地削减了开支。在深圳，富士康最大的工厂里，42万中国工人为苹果、惠普、戴尔这样的大型客户组装电子零件。而他们每月只挣大约188美元。 Often criticized for just being a nation of “assemblers,” Chinahas been increasing the value it adds to exports as more components areproduced there. G.M., for example, uses 350 local suppliers. 中国一直被谴责雇佣了太多工人。与此同时，生产更多产品以增大了商品出口量，中国也正逐渐提升自身的价值。例如，通用汽车有350个当地的供应商。 China’seconomic success is colored by its opaque political system, repressive andriddled with corruption. But the unusual mix of authoritarianism and freeenterprise should continue to work because of its ability to deliver risingincomes, satisfying a populace that appears more interested in economicadvancement than in democracy. 而中国的经济成功常常受制于其不透明的政治体系。它具有压制性并且充斥着腐败。但是由于自由经营能带来持续上涨的收入，独裁主义和自由经营的局面仍将继续。这很大程度上满足了那些更喜欢关注经济经济发展而非民主的大众。 Chinahas a plethora of tasks on its economic to do list, but none are impossiblydaunting. Just as in the United States a century ago, jobs are needed forvast numbers of rural migrants moving into cities. Inefficient state-ownedcompanies must be restructured (as they were in recent decades in many Europeancountries). The other evident stresses, like the indisputable property bubble,are manageable and far short of what brought down the American economy. 在经济方面，中国有很多任务需要完成，但都并非异常艰巨。就像一世纪前的美国一样，有一大批从乡村到城市的移民渴求工作。那些低效的国有企业必定需要重组（就像最近十年在许多欧洲国家，这些企业所体现出的那样）。而另外一些明显的压力，例如不争的房地产泡沫，则较易控制，况且相对于美国经济，它的势头小的多了。 Meanwhile, an opportunity lurks in China’s seeminginability to create innovative products with international identities. In anera of global corporations, a country that reveres brands, especially luxuryones like BMW and Louis Vuitton but also Starbucks and Häagen Dazs, has yet togive birth to its first. 与此同时，由于中国似乎没有能力生产出具有创造力的国际产品。那么在这样的一个属于跨国公司的时代，这些公司通常容易在一个崇尚品牌的国家发展，尤其是像宝马、路易威登、星巴克、哈根达斯这样的奢侈品牌。 Lenovo, one of the best-known Chinese companies, hasachieved limited success with its 2005 acquisition of IBM’s personal computerbusiness. Astonishingly, Chinese auto companies have the lowest share of theirhome market of any major country. So China has emphasized buildingproducts like ships, where brands don’t matter. 联想，著名的中国本土企业之一，通过在 2005年收购了IBM的个人电脑业务，也已经取得了有限的成功。令人惊讶的是，相比别的主要国家，中国的本土汽车公司在中国有着最低的份额。由于品牌效应在制造业并不明显，所以中国开始将注意力放在制造业上，例如造船。 Not unlike the United Statesin the 19th century, China’searly stage of industrialization has brought with it an unsavory wild Westflavor, from cronyism to fraudulent accounting, that justifiably worriesinvestors. But behind those distractions is a country that is investingsubstantially in its future — about 46 percent of its gross domestic product,compared with 12 percent in the United States. 与19世纪的美国不同的是，中国早期的工业化已经给它自己带来了西方不良的影响。无论是任人唯亲还是会计舞弊，这都无可厚非地扰乱着投资者。然而在这些干扰的背后，在未来，这个国家还是在稳步地投资——大约在国民生产总值中占46%，而美国只有12%。 And while total government debt in China is high — by some estimates, higher thanin the United States— much of the Chinese debt was incurred for investment rather than consumption,far better for longer-term growth. Not withstanding accounts of “roads tonowhere,” Chinahas vastly improved its core infrastructure. Its government arguably doesbetter than ours at allocating capital. 当然，中国总的政府债务相当高，据某估计要高于美国。这其中许多是由投资而非消费所导致的，远比长期的增长好。由于无法阻挡那些走投无路的客户，中国有力地证明了其核心的基础建设的稳固性，可以说，中国政府在资金配置上做的比我们好。 The antipathy of Chinese households toward personal debt (aquarter of homes are bought with cash) has resulted in a savings rate of nearly40 percent of income, compared with less than 5 percent for Americans. 不过由于中国住户对于个人借债十分反感，这导致储蓄率已达到收入的40%。相比之下，美国人仅有5%都不到。 Underpinned by a reverence for entrepreneurship, China has made starting new businesses easier,paving the way for the accumulation of vast fortunes; there are morebillionaires in China thanin any country except the United States. (China’sincome inequality also rivals that of the United States.) 然而由于对企业家精神的崇敬，中国已经使得创业变的更为容易，这也为那些巨大的创业机遇平铺了道路。除开美国，中国的百万富翁的数目已超越世界上任何国家。（中国不平等的收入也能与美国相当） A gradual move toward reform appears evident. Controls overinterest rates, foreign exchange, cooking oil and gasoline, to name a few, arebeing liberalized. There is even attention to the environment, with taxsubsidies for fuel-efficient autos and limits on new-car purchases in thelargest cities. 改革的逐步推进表现在对于利率、外汇、食用油和汽油的控制上。甚至关注已经转移到环境保护上，比如给予节能汽车的税收补贴，而且在大城市对于买新车也有明确的限制。 The frustrating mercantilist approach taken by China— it manipulates its currency and trade rules with abandon — has served itwell. It has accumulated vast foreign currency reserves ($3.2 trillion andrising) while blocking access to its market and gaining competitive advantagesinternationally in everything from solar panels to toys. Congressional saberrattling notwithstanding, Chinais likely to continue to get away with reforming only slowly. 可是这样重商业的观念也困扰这中国，这就是货币和贸易的随意性太大。中国已经有累计3.2万亿外汇储备金（并还在上涨）。这阻碍了其市场扩张，无论是太阳能电池板还是玩具，在世界范围内得到竞争优势也变的困难。虽然国会武力威胁，中国依然很可能背离其原始初衷，并且改革得很缓慢。 While Chinahardly lacks challenges, I am betting on its continued success. 尽管中国不缺挑战，我仍有把握它将持续获得成功。
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发表于 2011-12-7 12:30
把他们跟我们借的钱，变成我们跟他们借的！
