本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-12-13 09:24 编辑
【路透12.9】Ten years on, American business rethinks China dreams
http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3253083&fromuid=287770
【中文标题】十年后，美国企业重新思考中国的梦想
【原文标题】Ten years on, American business rethinks China dreams
【登载媒体】英国路透社
【来源地址】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3253083&fromuid=287770
【译 者】彩虹族
【翻译方式】人工
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【译 文】
(Reuters) - Few in the United States would recognize Charlene Barshefsky or remember what she did. Not so in China where the former U.S. Trade Representative says she is stopped in the streets by ordinary people and thanked.
Her gift to the Chinese people was leading the U.S. delegation that negotiated China's entry to the World Trade Organization in December 2001. The removal of trade barriers heralded unprecedented economic growth for China, vaulting it in a decade to the second largest economy in the world and helping slash its rural poverty rate from 10.2 percent in 2000 to 2.8 percent in 2010.
在美国，查琳·巴尔舍夫斯基和她的所作所为很少为人所知。与之相反的是，这位美国前贸易代表说她在中国经常在路上被普通中国人认出来，并对她表示感谢。
她送给中国人民的礼物是，2001年12月，代表美国代表团谈判中国加入世界贸易组织。贸易壁垒的消除预示着中国经济将会前所未有的增长，在未来的十年使之一跃成为世界上第二大经济势力，并使得中国的农村贫困率2000年到2010年期间从的10.2%消减到2.8%。
"The Chinese consider WTO entry the most historic achievement in U.S.-China relations since (U.S. President Richard) Nixon's visit to China," in 1972, Barshefsky said.
It is a different story in the United States where, 10 years on, China's entry into the club of world trading nations is having equally huge ramifications.
The flood of cheap manufactured goods gives an extra $600 a year for the average American family to spend on clothing, shoes, household goods and electronics. But Made in China has hastened the decline of U.S. manufacturing. Factory jobs have shrunk in number by 25 percent the past decade to 11.5 million today, and average factory wages adjusted for inflation have virtually stagnated.
“自1972年（美国总统理查德）尼克松访华以来，中国人民将加入世贸组织看做是美中关系史上最大的成就。”。巴尔舍夫斯基这样说道。
美国却是另一种说法，十年后，中国加入世贸组织带来了同样巨大的后果。
在廉价制成品的洪水冲击下，美国家庭在衣服、鞋子、家用物品和电子产品的人均消费多出了600美元。但是“中国制造”加快了美国本土制造业的下滑。工厂职位在数量上在过去的十年下降了25%，如今只有1千一百五十万个岗位，此外，在通货膨胀的影响下，工厂重新调整的平均工资几乎停滞不前。
Chinese imports meanwhile have ballooned the U.S.-Sino trade deficit to $273 billion, four times that with any other country. It has stirred anti-China sentiment, a labor union backlash and legislation in Congress to try and force China to let its currency strengthen more rapidly to lower its export advantage.
Now American business, lured a decade ago by the promise of a fast-growing Chinese middle class, is starting to shift gears and rethink what the China dream can deliver. Some chief executives are questioning whether the United States is pressing China hard enough to hold up its side of the bargain in joining the elite trade club.
"I think by any definition -- if you look at the raw numbers -- we've made a lot of progress. But by the same definition, we'd be fooling ourselves if there isn't a lot of frustration," said the man who now holds Barshefky's old job, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk.
从中国进口同时加剧了美中贸易逆差，现在是两亿七千三百美元的逆差，是美国同其他国逆差的四倍。这一现象导致了反对中国的情绪的出现，公会的激烈反应和国会的相关立法在努力使中国人民币升值以降低其出口优势。
十年前快速增长的中国中产阶级承诺吸引了美国企业，如今美国企业开始改变方式，重新思考中国梦能传递些什么。一些首席执行官质疑，美国是否在压制中国，以维持在加入精英贸易组织中其优势的一面。 我认为无论如何——如果你看看原始数量——我们已经做出了许多进步。但是相同的定义，如果我们不承认没有大量失望的情绪，我们就是在自欺欺人”，接收巴尔舍夫斯基的工作的美国贸易代表罗恩·科克说道。 The reconsideration of China is taking place while the United States struggles with an economic slump that has brought high unemployment and doubts about the country's long-term fiscal health. It is also taking place in an election year, and while China is a regular target in presidential campaigns, even Mitt Romney, with the strongest corporate credentials of all the Republican candidates, has made a point of criticizing China.
Almost 10 years to the day that China joined the WTO on December 11, 2001, Washington is growing concerned that China has lost its commitment to freer trade and that as new leaders prepare to take over next year, China is abandoning its march toward market capitalism in favor of state mercantilism.
"There's competition between the American economic model and the more state-centered economic model of China and other countries," said Robert Hormats, U.S. Undersecretary of State for economic affairs in an interview last month. 中国在进行重新思考，而美国正在经历经济低迷带来的高失业率，和对国家长期财政正常的怀疑。美国正在进行选举，而中国问题一直是总统选举中的话题，甚至与所有共和党选举人都有密切合作的米特·罗姆尼，也将矛头指向中国。 距2001年12月中国加入世贸组织以近十年，华盛顿政府越来越关注，中国已违背了它的自由贸易承诺，作为一个打算明年接管的新的领导者，中国放弃对资本市场的进攻有利于本国重商主义。 美国经济模式和更加以国家为中心的经济模式的中国和其他国家存在竞争。美国国家经济事务副国务卿罗伯特·霍马茨上个月在一次访谈中如是说。
For the United States, toughening its economic stance toward the world's emerging superpower is a delicate balancing act and carries with it geopolitical risks as China flexes its muscle across Northern Asia, Africa and Latin America.
"We have a challenge in dealing with China," said Hormats, one of the Obama administration's top economic diplomats. "On one hand, the global system won't work well if we and China can't cooperate and productively resolve our differences. On the other hand, we have real differences, many of which are awfully difficult to resolve." 对美国来说，加强本国对世界新兴超级势力的经济立场是得体的平衡举动，迎接地理政治挑战，随着中国将其经济势力拉伸到亚洲北部、非洲和南美拉丁。 “我们在中国问题上有些棘手”，霍尔茨，奥巴马政府重要经济代表中的一员，“另一方面，如果我们和中国无法合作并有效处理差异的难题，全球系统将很难运转。另一方面，两国之间的许多差异相当难以解决。”
TENSIONS MOUNT
The U.S. complaints about China are well known -- widespread theft of intellectual property, a lack of transparency about its regulations, missed WTO deadlines for opening markets, foot-dragging in allowing its currency to rise in value and subsidies such as low-interest state loans that favor domestic industries.
China argues that as a developing economy, it needs to protect its nascent industries and help them grow. It also retorts that the United States blocks its companies in key sectors.
Huawei Technologies HWT.UL, for instance, withdrew its $2 million bid this year for 3 Leaf Technologies when the U.S. government raised national security concerns, and oil giant CNOOC canceled an $18.5 billion bid for American oil company Unocal Corp in 2005 after a political backlash in the United States. 紧张情势 美国对中国的抱怨是举世公认的——普遍窃取知识产权，缺乏透明度的法规、失信世贸组织开放市场的截止时间、人民币迟迟不升值，还有扶持本国企业的低税率的国家贷款。 中国认为，作为一个发展中国家，有必要保护本国新生工业，帮助他们成长。中国还反驳美国阻止中国企业进入关键领域。 例如，当美国政府出于加强国家安全考虑时，华为今年撤走其对三叶科技出价两百万的资金；2005年，在美国的政治反弹后，石油巨头中海油取消对美国石油公司优尼科公司一百八十五亿美元的出价。
As trade frictions grow, corporate America for the first time is publicly voicing concern that the trade deal with China is lopsided, and pressure is building on President Barack Obama to toughen his stance.
Jim McNerney, Boeing Co's (BA.N) chief executive, touched upon the issue in November, speaking of a "dilemma" in China relations when he asked Obama at the APEC business summit how he would assess the U.S.-China relationship when both the left and the right are calling for a harder line.
Obama gave his administration's standard response of pursuing constructive engagement and a strong policy with a key partner, but the subtle criticism appeared to have hit home. Later, after a private meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao, he called for China to stop "gaming" the world trade system. 随着贸易摩擦的增多，美国企业第一次公开发表声明，与中国的贸易往来是失衡的，这种舆论压力使得总统奥巴马坚持其立场。吉姆·麦克纳尼，波音公司首席执行官，在十一月份谈及到此话题，当他在亚太经合组织峰会上问奥巴马，他如何获得美中关系 ，当左右两党都呼吁更强硬的措施，与中国的关系陷入两难。 奥巴马政府标准的回答，寻求建设性合作，与重要或不的强硬政策，但是国内出现含蓄的批评。后来，在与中国胡锦涛主席的私人见晤面后，奥巴马呼吁中国停止 世界贸易体系。 企业是比贸易公会更有力量的支持者，传统的说法已经在抱怨中国的贸易行事。其影响，尤其在总统选举年期间，可能会导致日益增多的敌对关系。
Business can be a far more powerful lobby than trade unions, the traditional voices that have complained of China's trade practices. Its influence, particularly in a presidential election year, could lead to increasingly adversarial relations.
"The level of business support for stable U.S.-China relations is beginning to fracture," said Nick Consonery, China expert at the EurAsia Group, a political risk institute that works closely with corporations.
"It is definitely happening because the business perspective is changing and they are less willing to get out in front of (and support) the administration's 'strong and stable' relationship."
In October, the U.S. Senate passed for the first time a bill designed to punish Chinese imports with levies, unless China allows its currency to rise more rapidly in value. Many U.S. economists and lawmakers believe China's yuan is kept artificially cheap by as much as 10-25 percent -- another subsidy to Chinese exporters that helps them undercut foreign competition.
Never before has a currency measure, brought forward multiple times in the past, won U.S. Senate support. No action has yet been taken in the U.S. House, where it is expected to founder. “商业支持的水平对平稳的美中关系开始改革”，尼克说，欧亚组织的中国专家，一个政治危机研究所，与企业关系非常密切。 这是肯定发生的事情，因为商业前景是千变万化的，他们很少愿意退出（并支持）政府强有力的稳定关系。” 八月，美国议会通过第一次投票，打算通过罚款形式惩罚从中国的进口，除非中国同意更快对其人民币增值。许多美国经济学家和立法认识相信中国的人民币人为的将其贬值了10%到25%——还有对出口的补贴，帮助出口商削弱外国竞争。 提出过无数次货币措施从来没有赢得美国议会的支持。人们一直希望垮掉的美国众议院从未采取任何措施。
BUSINESS COMPLAINS
The policy that perhaps most frustrates American business stems from a 2008 announcement by China's State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. It identified "economic lifeline" sectors that China says it must dominate.
The list is long -- aviation, air freight, coal, oil and petrochemicals, power generation, telecommunications and weapons. Industries such as chemicals, equipment and auto manufacturing, electronic communications, steel and nonferrous metals are set as state controlled to varying degrees. These state-owned enterprises enjoy a monopoly or oligopoly in the Chinese market; subsidies for land, water and power; and below-market cost of capital.
Until recently, American business leaders had been loath to speak of China's practices for fear it would lose them lucrative contracts or result in regulatory scrutiny that harms their China operations. Several have gone public in the past few months. 来自企业的抱怨
该政策可能会阻挠有源自中国国有资产监督管理委员会2008年的公告的美国企业。它声明，中国必须自主“经济命脉”部门。 名单很长——航空、航运、煤、石油还有石油化工、电力、电信和武器。在中国市场，如化学、设备和汽车制造业、电信、钢铁以及有色金属都是国有控制或者寡头经营。土地、水、电力部门都有政府补贴；这些部门都低于市场的资金成本。 直到最近，美国商界领袖一直不愿议论中国的行事，是因为害怕丢失他们有利可图的合约或者招来危害他们在中国的交易监管审查，其中一些已经在过去的几月上市了。 "The Chinese government is not going to allow a non-Chinese Internet company to succeed... It is a weapon in the 21st century national security games," eBay Inc (EBAY.O) chief executive John Donahue said in October at a Web 2.0 summit.
EBay has abandoned its efforts to build a Chinese marketplace where people bid for goods online after it ran into stiff competition from a free Chinese site. Its new strategy is to sell goods from Chinese companies to international buyers. "It was about finding a business model that works in China," said Daniel Feiler, spokesman for its China operations.
Google Inc. (GOOG.O) last year pulled back to Hong Kong on concerns Chinese were hacking the Internet search giant and a row with China over censorship. 中国政府不允许不是中国的国际公司成功……这是21世纪国家安全游戏的武器。易趣公司首席执行官约翰·唐纳修在八月份的Web 2.0峰会上这样说道。 在它陷入与一家免费的中国网站的竞争后，易趣已经放弃努力开拓其吸引人们在网上竞价投标的中国市场，。易趣的新策略是从中国公司卖产品给国际买家。“易趣打算寻找适合中国国情的商业模式”，易趣中国区的发言人达尼尔说道。 谷歌去年已经将服务器从中国大陆撤到香港，因为对中国攻击国际搜索引擎巨头的担忧，还有一连串的审查制度。
Jeffrey Immelt, chief executive of General Electric Co (GE.N) which has multibillion dollar contracts in turbines, railroad engines and aircraft parts with China, also faced choices in how to compete. "The notion was, if we're part of the Chinese economy, we should be allowed to win."
But finding ways to win means that companies have to avoid confrontations with Chinese authorities, he said. "We're not naive or stupid about these things. We really do think a lot about it," said the CEO, who advises Obama on business competitive issues. "There is a multitude of ways to succeed in China."
China's policies have helped vault its industries to global prominence. It has 61 companies today among the global Fortune 500 list, almost quadruple the number in 2005. The U.S. tally over the same period has fallen to 133 from 176. What American business finds disturbing is that most of the Chinese companies are state-owned, including the three in Fortune's Top Ten -- China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (600028.SS), China National Petroleum and State Grid STGRD.UL. 杰夫·伊梅尔特，通用电气的首席执行官，于中国在涡轮机、铁路引擎和飞机部件有无数亿美元的合作，同样面临选择如何竞争的局面。“有一种说法是，如果我们是中国经济的一部分，我们才会被允许赢得竞争”。 但是寻找获胜的方式意味着公司不得不避免与中国政府的冲突，他说。“在这些事情上，我们并不天真也不愚蠢。我们真的思考过很多。”敖包吗的商业竞争顾问CEO说道。“在中国有很多方式成功”。 中国的政策已经帮助其产业一跃成为全球领先位置。今日中国已由61家公司名列世界五百强，几乎是2005的四倍。同期美国统计已从176跌落到133家。美国企业发现分销是大量中国企业都是国有，包括位列福布斯十大帮手的3家企业:中国石油化工有限公司，中国石油和国家电网。 The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a joint report with the Coalition of Services Industries that China and other countries lavish regulatory favors and generous subsidies on their state-owned firms, making it very difficult to compete.
"No adequate and effective international disciplines now exist to deal with this problem," it said. 美国商会与服务产业联盟在一份联合报告中提到，中国和其他国家的对国有企业大量监管支持和慷慨的补贴，使得非常难以同其竞争。 现在还没有明确有效的国际惩罚条例处理这类问题。报告表明。
FIGHTING B ACK
In the past three years, the United States has brought five cases against China at the WTO, more aggressive than the seven cases during the eight years of former President George W. Bush's administration. By March 2010, the United States had won three WTO cases against China, four were resolved before WTO action, and four were pending.
Apart from negotiations at WTO complaints, the United States also is working to draw other big Asian trading nations into regional or bilateral trade pacts, which are designed to open markets and serve as a hedge or counterweight against Chinese trade policies. It ratified a free trade agreement with South Korea recently and has breathed new life into the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP.L, a 9-nation free-trade group that gained new heft in November when Japan, Canada and Mexico announced plans to join negotiations. U.S. officials want TPP to set new standards on free trade and become a template for future international trade deals. 反击 在过去的三年，美国已向世贸组织提出五个安利反对中国的这种行为，这些案例比前总统乔治·W·布什领导期间的7个案例更加激进。2010年3月，美国已经获得反对中国的3个案例，四个在世贸组织行动前解决，还有四个悬而未决。
除了世贸组织抱怨的商议，美国还试图吸引亚洲其他大型贸易国家加入区域和双边贸易协定，拟定开放市场，为抗衡中国贸易政策的壁垒服务。美国最近批准了与韩国的自由协定当日本、加拿大和墨西哥宣布加入谈判，为跨太平洋货盘关系TPP.L，九国自由贸易集团注入了新的生机。美国官方希望TPP对自由贸易设置新的标准，并成为今后国际贸易协议的范本。
What remains unclear in Washington is whether China's new leadership in 2012 will resume market opening or turn further inward. The country took a huge leap in the 1990s as it prepared for WTO entry, slashing red tape, removing layers of protection for domestic factories and farms and opening its markets. That work is widely credited inside and outside China with turning the country into the industrial dynamo of today.
The U.S. ambassador to the WTO Michael Punke said China made "impressive steps" to bring its laws and regulations into line with global rules in the five years after WTO entry.
Some trade experts say reform fatigue then set in and they expect opening measures to resume. Other U.S. experts say China turned away from market liberalization as early as 2003, when the reform-minded team of President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji retired and handed power to the more cautious current leadership of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, respectively.
"Nobody who was watching China enter the WTO back then saw this change coming," said China trade analyst Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation. "It was as if a different government with different priorities came in," he said.
Hu and Wen are due to retire from their state posts in March 2013 and hand over power to successors, most likely led by current Vice President Xi Jinping. The next generation of leaders has not expressed economic or trade policy views that depart from current statist orthodoxy, and are expected to proceed cautiously once in power.
The cost could be high, said Long Yongtu, who negotiated China's WTO entry in the late 1990s. He told a recent symposium he was extremely worried that "essentially, after 10 years, it seems China is drifting away from the WTO."
A statist model that denies fair competition for all enterprises, domestic and foreign, could stifle China's economic growth, Long said.
"We cannot only have large-scale and state-owned enterprises. That is only the skeleton of the economy. We need thousands upon thousands of small and medium-sized private enterprises. They are the flesh and blood of the Chinese economy." 华盛顿还没有明确的态度，2012年中国的新的领导是否会获得市场开放或者进一步向内。中国在上个世纪九十年代的巨大飞跃是它为加入WTO 的准备，消减反锁，消除对本国工农业的层层保护，开放市场。像工业发达国家转变这项工作获得中国国内外广泛赞誉。 美国世贸组织代表麦克·朋克说，中国加入世贸的五年中，做出了“令人印象深刻的措施”，使其法律和规章与国际规则相符。 一些贸易专家说，改革疲劳，着手，他们希望打开恢复的措施。另外一些美国专家说，当江泽民主席和朱镕基总理的改革一是团队退休后，政权转交到如今更加小心的现任领导胡锦涛和温家宝，中国早在2003年就从市场自由化转变了。 “没有人看到中国加入世贸组织然后发现这一变化的到来，”传统基金会的中国贸易分析家德里克·希瑟斯评到，“好像是一个有不同特权的另一个国家加入了世贸组织。” 2013年3月，胡锦涛和温家宝退任，很有可能会将权利交接个现任副主席习近平手中。下一任领导班子并没有表现出对现任中央集权的经济贸易政策正统的偏离，预计一旦上任会更加谨慎。 代价是惨重的，，曾在上个世纪九十年代讨论过中国加入世贸组织计划的龙永图说。他在最近的一个座谈会上说，他非常担心“加入世贸组织十年以来，中国基本上正在脱离该组织。” 一个否定国内外企业竞争的中央集权模式只会扼杀中国的经济增长，龙永图说。“我们不能只有大型国有企业，它们只是中国经济的骨架；我们更需要成千上万的中小型私有企业，他们是中国经济的新鲜血液。”
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发表于 2011-12-12 18:14
发表于 2011-12-12 18:35
