【彭博社0110】前央行顾问称2012中国不会硬着陆

lilyma06

【中文标题】前央行顾问称2012中国不会硬着陆

【原文标题】
China Won’t See Hard Landing in 2012, Former PBOC Adviser Says
【登载媒体】彭博经济周刊

【来源地址】http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-09/china-won-t-see-hard-landing-in-2012-former-pboc-adviser-says.html

【译者】lilyma06

【翻译方式】人工

【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3291221-1-1.html

【译文】

前中央银行顾问余永定称中国经济在今年不会硬着陆，房价也不会崩溃。中国社科院学部委员余说道，“中国今年还没有触礁。”“人们担心房价会崩溃。这不能保证的。”昨天在纽约的论坛上他这样说道。

世界第二大经济体中国去年第三季度经济增长率是9.1%，为近两年来最慢的增速，第二季度增速为9.5%。彭博调查23位经济学家得到的第四季度增速中位数估计值为8.7%。

余说，“8%或者7%的增长都是可以的。如果是低于7%的增长率可能会是危机了，经济又或是政治危机。”

他说，今年最大的担忧是任何“戏剧性的”房地产投资下降，而房地产占中国国内生产总值的9.9 ％ 。这一比例与韩国和日本等国家相比还是是“太高”。

搜房网控股有限公司是全国最大的房地产网站，根据公司跟踪的100个城市中，有60个城市价格下降。1月份数据显示中国的住房价格在政府反复抑制开发和购买下在12月份时连续第四个月下跌，比上个月下降0.25％。

“住房的刚性需求仍然是非常强劲的， ”余说。”经济学家之间有一个共识，如果房价下降20％，像白领这样潜在的买家将进入市场。这对于中国银行系统来说不会是“灾难性”的，因为从2009年起在中国的按揭贷款首付比例已从40％升至60 ％。“
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy won’t have a hard landing this year, and the nation’s housing prices are unlikely to collapse, said Yu Yongding, a former central bank adviser.

     “China has yet to hit the rocks this year,” said Yu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government-backed policy research institute. “People are worried about a housing market collapse. This is not warranted.” Yue spoke at a forum in New York yesterday.

     The world’s second-largest economy expanded 9.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in two years, down from 9.5 percent growth in the second quarter. The government may say on Jan. 17 that fourth-quarter growth slowed to 8.7 percent, according to the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

     Annual growth of “8 percent or even 7 percent is OK,” Yu said. “A pace of less than 7 percent means crisis, economic and perhaps political crisis.”

     The biggest concern this year is any “dramatic” fall in real estate investment, which accounts for 9.9 percent of China’s gross domestic product, Yu said. That proportion is “way too high,” compared with countries like South Korea and Japan, he said.

     China’s home prices fell for a fourth month in December, dropping 0.25 percent from the previous month, after the government reiterated plans to maintain curbs on development and purchases, SouFun Holdings Ltd., owner of the nation’s biggest real estate website, said on Jan. 4. Prices slid in 60 out of 100 cities tracked by the company.

     “Real demand for housing is still very strong,” Yu said, adding there is a consensus among economists that if housing prices drop by 20 percent, potential buyers, such as white- collar workers, will enter the market. That wouldn’t be “disastrous” for China’s banking system because the down- payment ratio for mortgages in China has risen to 60 percent from 40 percent since 2009, Yu said.

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Jigong

某“章大人“说2012 年中国将崩溃！;P