【澳大利亚人0116】龙年预示着中国的权力转移

花落无声

【中文标题】龙年预示着中国的权力转移

【原文标题】Year of the Dragon heralds power shift in China

【登载媒体】澳大利亚人

【来源地址】http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/year-of-the-dragon-heralds-power-shift-in-china/story-e6frg926-1226244874187

【译者】花落无声

【翻译方式】人工

【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3296043-1-1.html

【译文】



Chinese New Year celebrations are expected to flag significant changes.
人们预计春节的庆祝标志着重大的改变。

IN a little more than a week, a fortnight of fireworks will officially start around the vast cities and impoverished farms of the world's most populated country.   

一周多后，在这世界上人口最多的国家里，为时两周的烟火将会在广阔的城市和贫困的农场周边正式开始。

The crackers will celebrate the Chinese New Year and spring festival, ushering in the Year of the Dragon, the most auspicious of the 12 years in the Chinese zodiac.

爆竹将会庆祝中国新年或说春节，迎接龙年——12生肖里最吉祥的一个——的到来。

The Year of the Dragon is when, according to China's astrologers, big things come to pass.

根据中国占星家的说法，龙年是重大事件发生之年。

And this year, not much will be bigger than the once in a decade change in the top job: Secretary General of the ruling Communist Party and its subsidiary government title of President.

今年，没有什么会比十年一度的最高职位——执政的共产党的秘书长及附属的政府的主席头衔——的变化更重大了。

Not only are the Chinese awaiting this transfer of power, which will play a key role in determining all economic and strategic choices, but for a world anxious about the debt crisis in Europe and the stagnation in the US, few things matter as much as what China does this year.

不仅中国人在等待这场将会在经济和策略选择方面扮演主要角色的权力转移，对于为了欧洲的债务危机和美国的萧条而焦虑的世界来说，几乎没有事比中国今年要做什么更加重要。

The country's remarkable near 10 per cent annual growth over the past decade has helped underpin the international economy and prop up the ailing developed world during the first phase of the economic crisis that began in 2008.

过去十年里，这个国家接近10%的非凡的年增长率帮助巩固了国际经济，并在2008年开始的经济危机的第一阶段中支撑了境况不佳的发达国家。

But the world's dependence on China is now even more acute.

但现在世界对中国的依赖更加严重。

For no country in the developed world is this truer than Australia, which is linked to China in a way not thought possible even a decade ago. In 2010, China passed Japan as Australia's biggest trading partner, with trade now worth $105 billion a year, and China became Australia's biggest export destination, a position of dominance that also continues to increase.

发展世界中没有国家像澳大利亚对中国的依赖更加真实了，澳大利亚与中国的联系方式在即使十年前还被认为是不可能的。2010年，中国超过日本，成为澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴，现在每年的贸易价值高达1050亿美元，中国还成为了澳大利亚最大的出口目的地——一个仍在增加的主导位置。

There are many other facts that show the scale of the connection.

还有其它显示联系程度的因素。

Australia is one of China's prime destinations for foreign investment; China is by far the largest source of students (the second biggest export sector after mining); China takes about 70 per cent of Australia's wool clip, part of more than $5bn in agricultural exports; China helps to underpin urban and even some rural property markets; and last year, China passed Britain as our most valuable source of tourists, with numbers expected to reach 1 million a year by 2020.

澳大利亚是中国国外投资的主要目的地之一；到目前为止，中国是最大的学生来源（这是第二大出口部分，仅次于采矿业）；中国大约用掉澳大利亚羊毛年产量的70%——这是农业出口的50亿美元的一部分；中国帮助巩固了城市甚至一些农村的地产市场；去年，中国超过英国，成为了我们最有价值的客源，2020年前游客数字有望达到一百万。

Australia is now more dependent than any other country on China (bar possibly Taiwan) and its continued economic growth.

现在，澳大利亚比任何国家都更依赖中国（可能除了台湾）和中国持续中的经济发展。

When the global financial crisis hit three years ago, Beijing reacted by pumping billions of dollars into Australia's economy, generating an investment bubble and adding to inflation, but the sustained domestic demand in China has helped Australia to avoid recession.

当三年前全球金融危机发生时，北京做出反应，向澳大利亚的经济中注入数十亿美元，引起了投资泡沫并加剧了通货膨胀，但中国持久的国内需求也帮助澳大利亚避开了衰退。


Once again, Chinese policymakers face a similar challenge as growth slows because of the global meltdown and government-led efforts to tackle inflation.

再一次，由全球经济崩盘和政府领导的遏制通货膨胀的努力带来了发展缓慢，中国决策者面对着一个相似的挑战。

But this time, as Beijing considers whether to again increase spending, it is more tightly constrained in policy options, not just by the coming leadership change but by the rising power of elite interest groups.

但这次，在北京考虑是否再次增加开销的时候，它更加被政策选择——不仅仅是即将到来的领导变化，还有精英利益集团逐渐增加的权力——拘束。

At the political and business level, the demand is for economic stability and continued strong growth rather than reform initiatives that could slow the behemoth.
Yet without reform, China risks being stuck in the middle-income trap or experiencing a Japan-style "lost decade" or two.

在政治和商业的层面上，现在需要的是经济稳定和持续的强势发展，而非可能减缓这庞然大物的改革措施。然而如果没有改革，中国就会冒着被困在中等收入困境里或经历日本式“失落的10年”或20年的风险。

Rapidly rising wages are signalling that China may no longer be able to compete for the low-margin, high-volume manufacturing that  has driven its rise in the medium term, but a lack of ability to  innovate, or properly educate enough of its people, could see it fail to  climb up the value chain to provide high technology and premium  services.

迅速增长的工资标志着中国也许不能再来竞争低利润大规模的生产了，在中期这种生产曾带来了中国的崛起。然而创新能力与人民所需的适当教育的缺乏，可能导致它无法爬上价值链来提供高科技和增值服务。

This would leave it stuck somewhere in the middle. Many  observers also fear that China may follow Japan's trajectory of booming  exports, over-investment and expensive property markets, which led to  decades of wallowing in a stagnant economy.

这会让它（中国）卡在中间。很多观察者还害怕中国可能会步日本急速增长出口、过度投资以及昂贵房地产市场的后尘，那让日本在停滞的经济中沉溺了几个年代。

But signs for reform are not promising.

然而改革的迹象不容乐观。

Economic statistics due this week are  expected to show that China's quarterly GDP growth has slipped below 9  per cent for the first time since 2009.

人们预计到这周为止的经济统计数据将显示中国的季度GDP增长已经滑落到9%一下，这是自2009年以来的第一次。

"Slower export growth and  weaker domestic property construction were likely the main factors," UBS  analyst Wang Tao says. And there is worse to come.

“更慢的出口增长以及更薄弱的国内房地产建设可能是主要因素。”UBS分析师Wang Tao说。还会有更糟糕的事。

The problem is  that the crisis in Europe has coincided with Beijing's efforts to cool  China's property market, and figures released last week show property  sales in the capital fell by 60 per cent over the New Year period  compared with the same time last year.

问题是欧洲的危机正好和北京冷却中国房地产市场的努力碰到了一起，上周发布的数据显示与去年同期相比，首都的房地产销售在新年期间跌落了60%。

"With exports weakening  more visibly and property activity entering wintry conditions in months  ahead, we expect GDP growth to slow further to 7.7 per cent in Q1 2012,"  Wang says.

“在出口更明显地减弱、楼市在未来几个月里进入冷淡状况的时候，我们预计在2012年第一季度GDP增长会减缓到7.7%。” Wang说。

The government has already moved to loosen monetary  policy, cutting the Reserve Ratio Requirement (the percentage of its  funds a bank must hold in cash) at the end of last year.

政府已经开始放松货币政策，从去年开始减少存款准备金（一家银行资金中需要是现金的百分比）。

Analysts  argue that lower growth will trigger more visible policy easing, which  will lift domestic investment and economic activity from the second  quarter of this year.

分析师争论说低一点的增长将会触发更多可见的政策缓解，这会提高从今年第二季度起的国内投资和经济活动。

For 500 million or more Chinese, the Spring  Festival will hold the ever present hope of real change, of improving  lives eked out on $1 or less a day.

对于5亿或者更多的中国人来说，春节代表着永远存在的对真正的改变的希望，代表提高每天用1美元甚至更少来维持的生活。

With all this on its banquet table, little wonder that everyone is watching China.

中国的宴会桌上有着这些，难怪所有人都在注视着中国。

lilyma06

个别地方有些不顺哦~之后我把发布地址贴上来，可以对比下啊

花落无声

lilyma06 发表于 2012-1-16 17:19
个别地方有些不顺哦~之后我把发布地址贴上来，可以对比下啊

好的^_^
谢谢帮忙修改~~~