本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 11:30 编辑
【中文标题】正邪争霸2012 － 民主人士对阵独裁者（第一天）
【原文标题】Democrats vs. Dictators: 2012
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/bracket/democrats_vs_dictators_2012?page=0,0
（续【外交政策 12/03】正邪争霸2012 － 民主人士对阵独裁者（前言））
第1场
巴拉克•奥巴马（美国）对尼古拉斯•萨科奇（法国）
尽管共和党挑战者内部发生了一些混乱，但奥巴马前方的道路并不平坦。夹在汽油价格疯涨和阿富汗局势持续动乱之间的总统，同时还在面临一场艰难的连任选举。从好的方面来看，就业数据还是出现的向好的迹象，总统的支持率也在上升（更不用提共和党的正面碰撞了）。萨科奇在下一个月选举的民意调查中，似乎落在竞争对手之后。他把时间都花在与极右派争吵伊斯兰牛肉的标签，以及反驳卡扎菲资助他选举的指控上。这两位大官都遇到一些棘手的问题，但比较起来呢？即使萨科奇的声望在不断提升，但这位可怜的小王子抵挡不住奥巴马的勾手投篮。卫冕冠军顺利过关，奥巴马胜出！
第2场
本杰明•内塔尼亚胡（以色列）对雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安（土耳其）
这两位最近以来都没遇到太大的麻烦。埃尔多安在国际上遭遇了一些批评的声音，说他压制国内的言论自由和民权社会。国内一些人批评内塔尼亚胡，在讨论伊朗威胁问题时，随意使用大屠杀的措辞。但在外交力量上，两者相距甚远。埃尔多安在中东地区对待调停者的态度逐渐演变为一场闹剧，他在上周美以公共事务委员会上的发言，说明以色列的安全事务——尤其是内塔尼亚胡的激进派观点——依然主导华盛顿的决策。这么说吧，埃尔多安就像一个灵巧的得分后卫，而比比（译者注：以色列人对内塔尼亚胡的爱称）是一个强力前锋，他已经做好准备和他的老朋友奥巴马一较高下了。内塔尼亚胡胜出！
第3场
茱莉亚•杰拉德（澳大利亚）对费利佩•卡尔德龙（墨西哥）
一场引人入胜的对决出现在两匹黑马之间，但二者差距不小。在7月份即将举行的大选中，卡尔德龙就是一个废物，他的国家行动党的民意测验结果惨不忍睹。卡尔德龙戴着闪闪发亮的手枪走上赛场，但我们都知道他在与墨西哥贩毒分子多年作战中运用的策略有多么不得人心、毫无效果。杰拉德就像一只一动不动的翠鸟，她刚刚让前首相陆克文重掌大权的企图破灭。澳大利亚……嘿！嘿！嘿！杰拉德胜出！
第4场
卢卡斯•帕帕季莫斯（希腊）对安格拉•默克尔（德国）
天啊，德国主导的欧盟刚刚把帕帕季莫斯扶上他的位子，这根本不是一场比赛。据《外交政策》的现场观察员报道，帕帕季莫斯在场上毫无招架之力，任由默克尔得分，尽管德国评论员说他疏于防守的原因是希腊人懒惰成性。默克尔脱下高跟鞋，在希腊首相身上招招见血。默克尔在希腊的名声愈加恶化，那里的反德情绪空前高涨，但说到底这还是一场一边倒的比赛。场边似乎有一些人在私下押注，默克尔没能把这件事掩盖住。有人看见当帕帕季莫斯被抬着离开赛场时，默克尔偷偷往他手里塞钱。默克尔胜出！
第5场
武装部最高委员会（埃及）对穆罕默德•艾哈迈德内贾德（伊朗）
让我们回到赛场，埃及强大的过渡期当政军阀似乎占有一些优势。在推翻侯赛因•穆巴拉克政权一年之后，军队掌控下的国家似乎相当安定——尽管即将到来的大选可能会改变这个局面。军方甚至在没有损害其国际关系的前提下，镇压了一个由外国人资助的非政府组织。艾哈迈德内贾德一瘸一拐地走上赛场，似乎饱受国内外敌人的折磨。在国际制裁和压力之下，他成为了伊朗历史上第一位面对国会出庭受审的总统，针对他的指控是管理国家经济不力和公然反抗最高领导人。两个人就这样面对面地站着。
解说员甲：武装部最高委员会上场了。这边艾哈迈德内贾德也走上赛场，穿着他标志性的宽松内裤、松开领口的衬衫和会员独享的拉链夹克。
解说员乙：嘿，等等，场上发生了什么事？
解说员甲：他好像被叫回到场边！
解说员乙：跟他说话的那个人是谁？
解说员甲：看起来像是伊朗的监护委员会！难道他们要在最后一分钟换人吗？
解说员乙：他们不会换上那个人吧？
解说员甲：没错，正是最高领导人阿亚图拉•阿里•哈梅内伊！他已经结束停当，让内贾德坐在长凳上。
解说员乙：观众朋友们，似乎已经明了谁在主导这场比赛了。这个狡诈的老恶棍眼中喷出了火焰……
内贾德坐上冷板凳之后，哈梅内伊经过激烈对抗侥幸胜过埃及新贵。哈梅内伊胜出！（如果你选择了艾哈迈德内贾德，这轮也可以得分。）
第6场
穆罕默德六世（摩洛哥）对登盛（缅甸）
这是一场独裁改革者的战斗。去年，在长年执政所积累起的矛盾即将爆发的时候，摩洛哥的亲西方国王开始了一系列适度改革，包括从宪法上允许公民投票和议会选举。这或许只是装点门面的举动，但已经足以平息阿拉伯春天抗议者的怒气了。缅甸的浪子回头似乎是要来真格的。这个国家曾经一度被与朝鲜相提并论，现在却允许其最著名的异见者参与选举，还出面接待像希拉里•克林顿这样的客人。现在宣布缅甸为民主国家还为时尚早，但登盛所面临的巨大困难为他赢得了一定的分数，他通过国家恢复法律及秩序委员会这个有力的武器跻身下一轮。登盛胜出！
第7场
卡斯特罗兄弟（古巴）对罗伯特•穆加贝（津巴布韦）
高级独裁者俱乐部的娱乐时间到了。过去三年中，穆加贝（88岁）饱受国际社会强加给他的联合政府的困扰。他希望在今年通过选举来摆脱讨厌的反对派，但政府有可能筹集不到足够的钱来进行全民投票。或许他可以利用特朗普在津巴布韦的狩猎之旅，向他索取一些钱，但并不乐观。卡斯特罗兄弟（两人年龄加起来167岁）已经不像以前那样势不可挡了，但是除了死亡，我们也想象不到其它任何因素会让他们放弃权力。而且，即将到访的教皇或许会给他们带来一些好运气。卡斯特罗的双人组合轻而易举地抵挡了非洲小独裁者的进攻。卡斯特罗胜出！
第8场
金正恩（朝鲜）对雨果•查韦斯（委内瑞拉）
第一天比赛的最后一场是名不见经传的新人金正恩，他要在与沙场老将查韦斯的比赛中一战成名。小金在今年的锦标赛上能超越他的父亲老金吗？在去年的疯狂三月比赛中，老金在第二轮被普京打得毫无还手之力。总统先生的杀手锏依然是满嘴的废话——“骗人的同性恋纳粹犹太复国主义者”这样的话，与他口沫横飞喷在那位28岁（或许29岁）的矮胖子脸上连绵不绝的粗话根本不能相提并论。但是由于近期身体的疾病和委内瑞拉国内越来越大胆的反对声音，查韦斯在半场中回到休息室时，显得有些疲惫。当“绝对英明的同志”出现在下半场的赛场上时，查韦斯却不见了。据后来发现的一个字条，他临时赶往古巴去接受具体内容不详的治疗……把出线权拱手送给了金。金正恩胜出！
第一天赛果如下：
（待续）
原文：
Game 1
Barack Obama (United States) vs. Nicolas Sarkozy (France)
Despite dysfunction in the Republican field of challengers, Obama's got a tough road ahead of him. Between rising gas prices and increasing chaos in Afghanistan, the president faces a tough reelection battle. On the bright side, employment numbers are starting to pick up and so are the president's approval ratings. (Not to mention the demolition derby on the GOP side.) Sarkozy, meanwhile, is slightly trailing in the polls heading into next month's election and spending his days scrapping with the far right about halal beef labeling and fending off allegations that his campaign was funded by the Qaddafis. The two incumbents may both be facing some tough moments, but how do they stack up on the court? Even with Sarkozy's lifts, the petit prince can't stop Obama's hook shot.The defending champ cruises through this one. OBAMA WINS.
Game 2
Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel) vs. Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey)
Neither of these guys has been getting great press lately. Erdogan has faced increasing scrutiny abroad for his crackdowns on the free press and civil society. Netanyahu has received criticism at home for what some see as cavalier use of Holocaust imagery when discussing the threat from Iran. But in terms of diplomatic power, it's not even close. Erdogan's efforts to play mediator in the Middle East have mostly come to naught of late, while the speeches at last week's AIPAC conference demonstrated that Israeli security -- in particular, Netanyahu's hawkish vision of it -- still dominates in Washington. Let's put it this way: Erdogan might be a silky point guard, but Bibi's version of the power forward is all elbows -- and he's already looking down the road to a matchup with his old pal, Barack. NETANYAHU WINS.
Game 3
Julia Gillard (Australia) vs. Felipe Calderon (Mexico)
An intriguing match-up of two dark horse contenders. It's not even really close though. With a general election coming in July, Calderon is something of a lame duck and his PAN party is struggling in the polls. As the game begins, Calderon comes out guns ablaze -- but we all know how well that strategy has worked in his unpopular and highly deadly multi-year campaign against Mexico's drug cartels. Gillard, meanwhile, stays cool as a kookaburra having recently demolished former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's attempt to return to power. Aussie, Aussie Aussie, Oi, Oi Oi! GILLARD WINS.
Game 4
Lucas Papademos (Greece) vs. Angela Merkel (Germany)
Oof. Given that a German-dominated EU essentially installed Papademos in his current office, this one wasn't much of a contest. FP's game scouts report that Papademos appeared to just let Merkel score at will, though German commentators attributed his lack of defense to Greek laziness. Merkel, meanwhile, dug in her heels, literally, drawing blood from the Greek PM with nearly every shot. It won't help Merkel's reputation in Greece, where anti-German sentiment is at an all-time high, but it was a blowout. There might have been a sidebet going on -- or Merkel didn't cover the spread -- because at the end she was seen to be grudgingly slipping some cash to Papedemos as he was helped off the floor. MERKEL WINS.
Game 5
The SCAF (Egypt) vs. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Iran)
Going into the game, Egypt's tough-as-nails transitional military junta appeared to have the advantage in this one. A year after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, the military's grip on power seems pretty secure -- although the upcoming election could change that. The military even cracked down on foreign-funded NGOs without seriously damaging its international relationships. Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, limped into this first round, dinged by enemies at home and abroad. Beset by sanctions and international pressure, he recently became the first president in Iranian history to be hauled before parliament to face accusations that he has mismanaged the country's economy and defied the Supreme Leader. So, as they took the floor...
[Announcer]: The SCAF has taken the court. And here comes Ahmadinejad in his trademark baggy shorts, button-down shirt, and zippered Members Only jacket.
[Announcer 2]: Hey, wait, what's happening?
[Announcer]: He's being called back to the bench!
[Announcer 2]: Who's that talking to him?
[Announcer]: It looks like Iran's Guardian Council! Is there going to be a last minute substitution here?
[Announcer 2]: Is that who I think it is?
[Announcer]: Yes, it's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei! He's lacing up his old-school Jordans and telling Mahmoud to take a seat!
[Announcer 2]: Looks like it's clear who's running the show, folks. And there's fire in that wily old veteran's eyes...
With Ahmadinejad riding the pine, Khamenei squeaks by the upstart Egyptians in a nail biter. KHAMENEI WINS. (Scoring note: If you picked Ahmadinejad, you still get points for the Ayatollah advancing.)
Game 6
Mohammed VI (Morocco) vs. Thein Sein (Myanmar)
It's a battle of the reformist autocrats. With longtime regimes imploding all around him last year, Morocco's Western-friendly king undertook a program of modest reforms, including a constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections. They may just have been wallpaper, but did enough to quell the worst of the Arab Spring-style protests. Myanmar's turnaround, though, seems the real deal. A country once frequently mentioned in the same breath as North Korea is now allowing its most famous dissident to run for office and playing host to the likes of Hillary Clinton. It's certainly too early to describe Myanmar as a democracy yet, but Thein Sein gets points for degree of difficulty and SLORCs his way through to the next round. THEIN SEIN WINS.
Game 7
The Castro Brothers (Cuba) vs. Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe)
It's recreation hour at the dictator senior center. Mugabe (age 88) has been severely hampered for the last three years by an internationally imposed coalition government. He's hoping to jettison his pesky opposition partners by holding elections this year, but it's possible the government may not have enough money to hold the vote. Perhaps he was able to raise a bit of money from the Trump's recent hunting excursion in Zimbabwe, but it doesn't look good. The Castros (combined age 167) aren't as formidable as they once were, but other than death, it's hard to imagine anything that could remove them from power at the moment. Plus, an upcoming papal visit may bring good luck. The double-team Castro Bros. defense manages to hold off the diminutive African dictator. CASTROS WIN.
Game 8
Kim Jong Un (North Korea) vs. Hugo Chavez (Venezuela)
The final matchup of the day features unknown newcomer Kim Jong Un looking to make a name for himself on the big stage against veteran contender Chavez. But can the younger Kim go deeper in the tournament this year than his father, who was summarily dumped by Putin in round two of last year's March Madness? El Presidente can still trash talk with the best of them -- "mendacious gay Nazi Zionist" is nothing compared to the torrent of verbal abuse he unleashed on the pudgy 28 (or maybe 29) year-old rookie. But hampered by illness and an emboldened Venezuelan opposition, Chavez was looking a bit tired as he made his way to the locker room at halftime. And as the "brilliant comrade" took to the floor for second-half action, Chavez was nowhere to be seen. As we later learned from a pre-recorded message, he jetted off to Cuba at the last minute for some unspecified medical treatment ... giving Kim the win by forfeit. KIM WINS.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-3-23 09:24
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2012-3-23 12:46
