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【中文标题】中国的双重危机
【原文标题】Double Trouble for China
【登载媒体】外交官
【原文作者】Zachary Keck
【原文链接】http://thediplomat.com/china-power/double-trouble-for-china/
根据自由之家和中国政府国家统计局提供的两份报告，中国是世界上最不自由的国家之一，同时其收入分配不公的程度已经达到危险的边缘。
自由之家在星期三发布的年度自由报告中称，2012年全球所有被禁锢在“不自由”环境中的人口中，有一多半都生活在中国。《世界自由》报告的导言中提到：“共有2,376,822,100人生活在不自由的社会环境中，占全球总人口的34％。另外，很重要的一点是，其中半数以上都生活在一个国家里——中国。”
自由之家定义一个国家为“不自由”的标准是“缺少基本的政治权利，从制度上大范围否定公民的自由”。全球有47个国家被冠以“不自由”之名，占国家总数的24％。
另外58个国家被认为是“部分自由”，90个国家被认为“自由”，占国家总数的46％。在亚太地区，46％的国家是自由的，36％的国家部分自由，21％的国家不自由。在不自由的国家中，朝鲜、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦以及另外4个国家被自由之家认为是“自由状况最恶劣”的国家，说明它们在政治权利和公民自由方面的得分最低。
自由之家2013年部分国家自由度排名
尽管中国在整体上还不算“自由状况最恶劣”的国家，但西藏却是在排名中位列“自由状况最恶劣”的两个地区之一。而且，自由之家认为，中国和另外5个国家的得分仅仅稍高于排名垫底的国家。其政治权利是最低的7分，公民自由是次低的6分。
更让中国尴尬的是，自由之家把北京和其邻国缅甸做了一个对比，结果非常令人不快。报告中说：“尽管缅甸内部还存在很多问题，但它已经在政治权利和公民自由方面超越了中国。”缅甸在政治自由和公民权利上的得分分别是6分和5分。
尽管中国在经济上把缅甸远远甩在后面，但并非每个人都分享到了胜利的果实。如果你愿意的话，让我们来看看中国政府自2000年以来第一次发布的这个国家的基尼系数。基尼系数是被国际认可的一种衡量国家收入分配公平性的指数，0代表绝对公平，1代表完全不公平（一个人掌握所有财富）。
星期五，国家统计局局长马建堂在北京的新闻发布会上公布，中国自2003年以来的基尼系数徘徊在0.47到0.49之间。北京上一次公布基尼系数是在2000年，当时的数字是0.412。马说：“0.47到0.49的基尼系数表示收入分配的差距还是比较大的。”与此相比，发达国家中收入分配最不公平的美国，按经济发展合作组织的估算，税后基尼系数约为0.37。包括联合国在内的其它组织认为美国的基尼系数高于0.4。
在进一步阐述这些数字时，马说城乡工人收入的差距是平均收入差距的三倍，不同行业工人间收入的差距是平均数字的四倍。
很多经济学家和国际组织认为，超过0.4的基尼系数会引发社会动荡。
值得一提的是，邓小平和他的下属官员承认，改革开放政策至少在短期会造成更大程度的收入分配差距。在1980年到1987年间担任总理职务的赵紫阳负责推进中国经济平衡性的日常工作，对于中国沿海地区比内地省份收入增长过快的现象，他是一个积极的推动者。有理论认为，收入分配高度不均会威胁社会的稳定性，还会削弱政府平衡经济、塑造一个更加依赖本土需求——而不是出口——的经济模式的能力。
马主持的新闻发布会中有一个亮点。收入分配不均在2008年似乎已经达到了顶点，那一年的基尼系数是0.491，之后逐年下降到2012年0.474的水平。然而，这与国家统计局在2011年的声明内容似乎有矛盾。当时发布的信息并没有涉及具体数字，其内容谈到2011年的收入分配不均程度比2010年稍有提升。
尽管如此，新领导班子在面临劳动力规模缩小的现状时，重新平衡经济的任务变得更加艰巨。马在星期五的新闻发布会上说，与2011年相比，2012年的劳动力减少了345万人。他认为计划生育政策是主要原因，并且强力主张调整这项政策。
自由之家在报告中提到，11月份开始执政的中国第五代领导人似乎不会发起这种艰巨的、颇具远见的政策变化，以带领这个国家走过坎坷的道路。当共产党揭开第五代领导人的面纱时，那些期望“真正意义上的改革的人被给了当头一棒，因为那些都是走强硬路线出身的领导人。”至少，在经济改革方面他们需要做得更好。
原文：
China is among the least free societies in the world and suffers from a dangerously high rate of income inequality according to two reports this week from Freedom House and the Chinese government’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
China was home to over half of the global population who lived in “not free” societies in 2012, according to Freedom House’s annual freedom index, which was released on Wednesday.
“The number of people living under Not Free conditions stood at 2,376,822,100, or 34 percent of the global population, though it is important to note that more than half of this number lives in just one country: China,” the introduction of this year’s Freedom of the World report stated.
Freedom House defines a country as “not free” when “basic political rights are absent, and basic civil liberties are widely and systematically denied.” It gave this label to 47 countries around the world, 24 percent of the total polities.
An additional 58 countries are only listed as “partly free” while Freedom House considers 90 nations as free, 46 percent of the total. In the Asia-Pacific, 43 percent of countries were listed as free, 36 percent were labeled partly free, and 21 percent were labeled as not free. Of those in the latter category, North Korea, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan were among the seven countries Freedom House included in its “worst of the worst” category meaning they got the lowest possible score for both political rights and civil liberties.
Although China as a whole wasn’t part of the “worst of the worst” grouping, Tibet was one of the two territories included in the survey that met the requirements for the “worst of the worst” ranking. Furthermore, Freedom House said that China was one of the six nations and territories that scored only “slightly above those of the worst-ranked countries,” receiving a seven, the lowest possible score, in the political rights category and the second lowest score, six, for civil liberties.
More embarrassing for China was the unfavorable contrast Freedom House drew between Beijing and its neighbor Myanmar.
“For all its lingering problems, Burma has now surpassed China on both political rights and civil liberties,” the report said.
Myanmar was given a six in terms of political freedom and a five in the category of civil liberties.
Although China remains far ahead of countries like Myanmar economically, not everyone in China is sharing in the spoils.
That is if you believe the Chinese government, which released data on the country’s Gini coefficient for the first time since at least 2000. The Gini coefficient is an internationally recognized measurement of income inequality in a country where zero equals perfect equality and a score of one means perfect inequality (one person holding all the wealth).
China’s Gini coefficient has hovered between 0.47-0.49 since 2003 Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), told a press conference in Beijing on Friday. The last time Beijing released Gini data was in 2000, when it said the number was at 0.412.
"A Gini coefficient between 0.47-0.49 shows that the gap in income distribution is relatively large,” Ma reflected.
By way of comparison, the United States, which has one of the highest levels of income inequality in the industrialized world, has been estimated by the OECD to be around .37 after taxes. Other organizations like the UN place the number higher at 0.4.
Breaking down the numbers further, Ma said there was a three-fold gap in wealth between rural and urban workers, and a four-fold gap between workers in the most and least lucrative industries, Reuters reported.
Many economists and international organizations believe anything above 0.4 risks creating social unrest.
It’s worth noting that Deng Xiaoping and his subordinates recognized that their policy of reform and opening up would create greater income inequality at least in the short-run. Zhao Ziyang, who as Premier from 1980-1987 was in charge of the daily implementation of China’s economic rebalancing, was a particularly strong advocate of the need to allow income for China’s coastal regions rise faster than inland provinces.
That being said, the high level of income inequality threatens social stability and impairs the government’s ability to rebalance the economy towards one built more on domestic demand than exports.
The one bright spot in Ma’s press conference was that inequality appears to have peaked in 2008 when the Gini was at 0.491, and declined each year since reaching 0.474 in 2012. This contradicts the NBS' statements in 2011, however, when it said—without stating actual numbers— that income inequality had risen slightly in 2011 compared to 2010.
Still, the new leadership’s efforts to rebalance the economy will be made all the more difficult by the declining size of the labor force. At the Friday press conference Ma said the labor force had declined in absolute terms by 3.45 million workers in 2012 relative to the year before. He cited the one-child policy as the cause of this drop and passionately advocated this be reversed.
China’s 5th generation leaders that took over in November are unlikely to initiate the kind of tough, visionary policies needed to navigate the country’s mounting difficulties, Freedom House suggested in its report this week. The annual survey said those hoping for “meaningful political reform were dealt a serious blow” when the CCP unveiled the fifth generation leadership, “whose members have generally built their careers on hardline policies.” They'll need to do better in economic reform.
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