【外交政策 201411】破碎的世界：2014百大思考者 － 煽动者

满仓

【中文标题】破碎的世界：2014百大思考者 － 前言
【原文标题】A World Disrupted: The Leading Global Thinkers of 2014
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文链接】http://globalthinkers.foreignpolicy.com/







从中东到欧洲和非洲，2014见证了前所未有的地缘政治分裂。伊斯兰国用无情的暴力重划叙利亚和伊拉克的边界；俄罗斯在东乌克兰步步紧逼；博科圣地在尼日利亚北部烧杀掳掠。这些全球思考者——恐怖分子领导人、意识形态盲从者、狡诈的金融家——是这些分裂行动背后的策划者。在短短几个月的时间里，他们颠倒了我们所熟知的世界，把整个地区数千万人的生命和未来置于未知。


阿布•巴克尔•巴格达迪
恐怖分子领导人，叙利亚

“野蛮地重新定义21世纪的恐怖主义。”

在不到十年的时间里，阿布•巴克尔•巴格达迪从一名伊斯兰教牧师，变成美国军事基地的囚犯，再变成重新施划中东边境线的恐怖组织掌舵人。

当美军在伊拉克战争期间的空袭让基地组织遭受毁灭性打击的时候，巴格达迪在组织内部扶摇直上，把战争的对象转向饱受战乱蹂躏的叙利亚。今天，被称为“世界上最危险的人”的巴格达迪彻底改变了这个组织。作为伊斯兰国，它已经占领了叙利亚和伊拉克的狭长区域，用恐怖的斩头和大屠杀震惊了整个世界。

巴格达迪改变了组织的融资方式，伊斯兰国不再依赖外国资金，而是通过出售原油、敲诈和绑架等方式每天获利数百万美元。这笔财富给了他巨大的自由度。今年6月，他宣布了伊斯兰国新的领土范围，并称自己为统治者。7月，在摩苏尔大清真寺的一次布道中，巴格达迪明确阐述了他残暴的理想：“万能的真主说：‘与他们战斗，直到没有任何反抗，直到所有的教徒都信奉安拉。’”


弗拉基米尔•普京
总统，俄罗斯


“俄罗斯的命运。”

用俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京的话来说，苏联的解体不但是一个政治体制垮塌的标志，而且是文明疏远的象征。他在3月份为俄罗斯从乌克兰兼并克里米亚的行为辩护时说：“俄罗斯人民必将成为世界上最大的一个国家，否则，必然是一个分裂的国家。”

在普京看来，俄罗斯的定义并不是其边境线，而是俄罗斯人民所共有的文化、语言和历史。与他们联合是这个国家注定的命运——而完全不用顾及其它国家的领土主权。这种思想也注入到这位强人的国内政策中：普京以捍卫所谓的俄罗斯价值观不受西方自由思想和其它势力的摆布为借口，严厉压制政治对手、非政府组织和少数民族。

2014年，国际社会强烈谴责普京的国内外政策，认为这是好战的，甚至是不理智的。但是，他的策略也自有一番道理：在北约扩张和前苏联加盟共和国与西方经济关系日趋强化的环境下，普京认为俄罗斯的文明面临威胁。他认为自己有责任挽救这个文明。


亚历山大•杜金
政治学者，俄罗斯

“策划俄罗斯的扩张主义思想。”

如果说俄罗斯的扩张主义行径有一个忠实的追随者，那非亚历山大•杜金莫属了。这位民族主义哲学家、国家杜马的密友在90年代一举成名，他曾庄严地宣布俄罗斯未来的命运。杜金说，像古代的罗马一样，莫斯科与它的卫星国家将坚决抵抗迦太基（今天的西方）那无处不在的堕落和腐化。

俄罗斯兼并克里米亚之后，杜金的理论焕发出新生。作为兼并行动的“总策划”，杜金声称乌克兰南部和东部——即Novorossiya（新俄罗斯）——“请求”莫斯科的干涉。他与反叛力量总指挥伊戈诺•斯特列科夫关系密切，据说他曾直接给分裂分子下达命令。杜金在3月致美国人的一封公开信中说：“乌克兰在建国23年之后，已经不复存在了，这是不可抗拒的趋势。”

杜金是俄罗斯议会的前任顾问，在国家电视台频频露面，他在俄罗斯的政治体制中有比较强大的立足点。他的存在证明，俄罗斯有比虚张声势的实力政治更强大的理论背景。今年春天，两位俄罗斯记者在《外交事务》网站上撰文，称杜金的教条“即将成为俄罗斯首要的思想意识形态”。


阿布巴卡尔•谢考
博科圣地领导人，尼日利亚

“把伊斯兰国带到非洲。”

阿布巴卡尔•谢考得到全世界的关注是在今天5月，他在一部视频中兴高采烈地宣布为绑架尼日利亚锡伯克200名女学生的事件承担责任。他说：“我会到市场上把她们卖掉，安拉说我要卖掉她们，他指示我这么做。”

过去一年中，谢考的军事头脑让这个非洲人口最多、经济最发达的国家饱受蹂躏。他把伊斯兰圣战组织博科圣地变成了非洲的伊斯兰国，采取残忍的手段执行所谓的中世纪伊斯兰法典。博科圣地攻城略地，杀人无数，更多的人流离失所，目前已经控制了尼日利亚东北部，号称占领的土地面积与爱尔兰国土面积相当。腐败、管理不善、滥用职权的国家军队根本无法抵挡谢考的部队。

随着伊斯兰极端组织的实力逐渐增长，谢考的野心也在不断膨胀。他崇拜伊斯兰国领导人阿布•巴克尔•巴格达迪。在另外一个欢庆的视频中，他说安拉“命令我们统治整个世界，不仅仅是尼日利亚。我们已经开始了。”


亚历山大•博罗代
前总理，顿涅茨克人民共和国，乌克兰

“白手起家建立一个独立的共和国。”

当乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区宣布独立的时候，顿涅茨克自封的政府需要一个领导人。意料之中让西方国家懊恼的是，他们在莫斯科找到了一个人。42岁的活动人士和政治顾问亚历山大•博罗代接受了顿涅茨克人民共和国总理职务的委任，他在接受《纽约时报》采访时说：“很多来自俄罗斯的人都在提供帮助，我也是其中之一。”

这或许过于自谦了。博罗代被称为是“俄罗斯帝国的卡尔•罗夫”，他来自一个激进分子团体，所信奉的大俄罗斯思潮弥漫了整个克里姆林宫。批评人士说他与俄罗斯情报机构有密切的关系，对于这种说法他没有理会，但也没有否认。

在整个夏天，博罗代是莫斯科与基辅之间的联络人和调停者。马来西亚航空公司17航班失事之后，博罗代公开否认反叛武装力量的介入，并宣布移交黑匣子和遇难者遗体。他在三个月之后卸任，说应当由“顿涅茨克本地人士”履职。但是他的作用至关重要。根据《华盛顿邮报》的报道，作为“分裂主义行动的苍白面孔”，博罗代让一个宣布独立的共和国站起来了。


哈贾•艾尔•阿贾米/阿卜杜勒•拉赫曼•哈拉夫•艾尔•阿纳兹
伊斯兰圣战资助人，科威特/叙利亚

“为恐怖分子提供滚滚财源。”

当美国还在犹豫是否为叙利亚反对派提供武装时，它的对手没有浪费时间。在今年一年中，哈贾•艾尔•阿贾米和阿卜杜勒•拉赫曼•哈拉夫•艾尔•阿纳兹在以前的基础上继续向伊斯兰国和基地组织的附属机构努斯拉阵线提供现金。他们改进了以往伊斯兰圣战的筹资方式，利用出售石油和敲诈勒索的所得，大笔资助激进分子。

阿纳兹曾经资助伊斯兰圣战士兵的活动，据美国财政部提供的信息，他曾经与伊朗的基地组织共事。年轻的教士阿贾米出身于科威特一个显赫的家庭，他利用社交媒体在波斯湾地区为强硬派伊斯兰教徒筹集资金，敦促他的推特粉丝为结束政府独裁统治贡献力量。推特在2014年8月关闭了他的账号，当时他有47万名粉丝。（他在几个星期之后重开推特账号。）2012年，他在卡塔尔的一次集会上说：“知道吗？把大马士革赶下台之需要1000万美元。重要的事情是支持圣战士兵，武装他们。”


圣战约翰
伊斯兰国武装粉子，叙利亚

“海外伊斯兰圣战人士的榜样。”

美国记者詹姆斯•福利遭斩首的视频激起了国际社会的愤怒，不但针对残忍的行为，而且针对戴面罩的行刑者，这似乎是个英国人。英国新闻界称其为“圣战约翰”，他是数千名前往中东与伊斯兰国并肩作战的外国人之一。

外来的圣战成员已经不是什么新闻，从穆斯林游击队到车臣叛乱，伊斯兰极端组织长久以来都在寻求外国支持，为自己的行为正名。通过特定的宣传方式，伊斯兰国吸引了大量的外国士兵。据估算，1.5万名外国人，包括1900多名西方人已经加入了叙利亚的武装组织。

西方国家的官员说他们已经查明了圣战约翰的身份，他应该也是处死其他三名西方人质——一名美国人和两名英国人——的刽子手，行刑过程也被摄像。但是，即使我们抓到了这个戴面罩的家伙，依然会有无数外国雇佣兵取代他的位置。





原文：

Agitators

From the Middle East to Europe to Africa, 2014 was a year of unprecedented geopolitical fracturing. The Islamic State began relentlessly and violently redrawing borders in Syria and Iraq, while Russia aggressively staked new claims in eastern Ukraine and Boko Haram murdered and plundered its way through northern Nigeria. These Global Thinkers—terrorist leaders, ideologues, wily financiers—are the brains behind these splintering operations. In the course of just a few months, they have upended the world as we know it, leaving the future of whole regions and the lives of tens of millions looking dangerously uncertain.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
Terrorist leader
Syria
"For brutally redefining 21st-century terrorism."

In under a decade, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is said to have gone from being an Islamic preacher to a prisoner at a U.S. military base to the man at the helm of a terrorist organization that is redrawing the Middle East’s borders.

As U.S. airstrikes decimated al Qaeda in Iraq’s leadership during the Iraq War, Baghdadi began a meteoric rise through the organization and shifted its efforts into war-ravaged Syria. Today, Baghdadi, called the “world’s most dangerous man,” has thoroughly rebranded his group: As the
Islamic State, it has conquered swaths of Syria and Iraq and shocked the world with graphic images of beheadings and mass executions.

Baghdadi has revolutionized the way the group makes money; instead of relying on foreign patrons, the Islamic State reportedly reaps millions of dollars per day from sales of crude oil, racketeering, and kidnapping plots. This wealth has granted him vast autonomy, and in June, he
announced a new caliphate, or Islamic empire, and declared himself its ruler. The following month, in a sermon delivered at Mosul’s Grand Mosque, Baghdadi laid out his ruthless vision: “He the most high says,‘And fight them until there is no sedition and until the religion, all of it, is for Allah.’”

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia
For manifesting Russia’s destiny

The way Russian President Vladimir Putin tells it, the Soviet Union’s collapse marked not only the dissolution of a political system, but the estrangement of a civilization. “The Russian people,” he said in March, defending Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, “became one of the biggest, if not the biggest, split-up nation in the world.”

To Putin, Russia is not defined by its current borders, but by the shared culture, language, and history of the Russian people. And it is his state’s manifest destiny—territorial sovereignty of other countries be damned—to unite them. This ideology has informed the strongman’s domestic policy as well: Putin has led a crackdown on political rivals, NGOs, and minorities in the name of defending so-called Russian values from the West’s liberal excess and other forces.

In 2014, the international community decried Putin’s machinations, both at home and abroad, as belligerent and even irrational. His tactics, however, may be perfectly coherent: Amid NATO expansion and growing economic ties between former Soviet states and the West, Putin sees Russia as a civilization under threat. And he believes that he is the man to save it.

Alexander Dugin
Political philosopher
Russia
For masterminding Russia’s expansionist ideology.

If Russian expansionism has an ideologue, it is Alexander Dugin. The nationalist philosopher and Duma confidant first made his name in the 1990s with grandiose visions of Russian destiny: Like ancient Rome, Dugin claimed, Moscow and its satellite states would guard against the decadence and degeneracy found in an ever-present Carthage (today, the West).

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Dugin’s ideas have found new life. Called the “brains” behind that takeover, Dugin has since claimed that southern and eastern Ukraine—or Novorossiya (New Russia)—“pleads” for Moscow’s intervention. He is in close contact with rebel commander Igor Strelkov and has reportedly even given instructions to separatists. “Ukraine as it was during the 23 years of its history has ceased to exist,” Dugin wrote in March, in an open letter to Americans. “It is irreversible.”

A former advisor to the Russian parliament who appears frequently on state television, Dugin has a strong foothold in the Russian establishment. He is a potent reminder that there is more behind Russia’s bravado than realpolitik. As two Russia hands wrote this spring on Foreign Affairs’ website, Dugin’s dogma is “proving to be a strong contender for the role of Russia’s chief ideology.”

Abubakar Shekau
Leader, Boko Haram
Nigeria
For bringing an Islamic state to Africa.

Abubakar Shekau captured the world’s attention this May in a video in which he gleefully took responsibility for kidnapping more than 200 schoolgirls in Chibok, Nigeria. “I will sell them in the market,” he said. “Allah says I should sell; he commands me to sell.”

Over the past year, Shekau’s military savvy has proved devastating to Africa’s most populous country and largest economy. He has transformed the jihadist group Boko Haram into the African equivalent of the Islamic State, bent on enforcing its medieval version of sharia law through brute force. Attacking town after town, killing and displacing thousands of people, Boko Haram has extended its control over Nigeria’s northeast; it now claims a territory about the size of Ireland. State security forces, which are corrupt, mismanaged, and abusive in their own right, have been no match for Shekau’s fighters.

As the Islamist group’s power grows, Shekau’s ambitions also appear to be expanding. He has praised Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and in yet another exultant video, he declared that Allah “commands us to rule the rest of the world, not only Nigeria, and now we have started.”

Alexander Borodai
Former prime minister, Donetsk People’s Republic
Ukraine
For raising a self-declared republic to its feet.

When eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region declared independence, the self-styled government in Donetsk needed a leader. Unsurprisingly, and to the chagrin of Western powers, it found one in Moscow. “A lot of people from Russia are coming to help,” Alexander Borodai, a 42-year-old activist and political consultant, told the New York Times after he was appointed prime minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic. “I am one of them.”

That may be underselling his position: Borodai has been described as “the Karl Rove of Russian imperialism,” hailing from a group of ultranationalists whose zeitgeist of a Greater Russia has permeated the Kremlin. Critics insist that he has strong ties to Russian intelligence services—a claim he brushes off but does not deny.

Over the summer, Borodai was a key liaison and negotiator with both Moscow and Kiev. After the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, it was Borodai who publicly denied rebel involvement in the crash and dictated when the black boxes and bodies were released. He stepped down after just three months, saying “a genuine Donetsk native” should be in charge. Yet he left a critical mark: As the “grizzled face of the separatist movement,” according to the Washington Post, Borodai helped a self-declared republic rise firmly to its feet.

Hajjaj al-Ajmi, Abd al-Rahman Khalaf al-Anizi
Jihadi financiers
Kuwait; Syria
For shaking the terrorist money tree.

While the United States has dithered about arming the Syrian opposition, its opponents have wasted no time at all. Throughout 2014, and building upon previous efforts, Hajjaj al-Ajmi and Abd al-Rahman Khalaf al-Anizi drummed up cash for the Islamic State and the al Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front; the men have advanced jihadi fundraising methods, adding handsomely to the militants’ revenues from oil sales and extortion rackets.

Anizi has also facilitated the travel of jihadi fighters and, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, has worked with al Qaeda in Iran. Ajmi, a young cleric from a prominent Kuwaiti family, has used social media to elicit funds from hard-line Islamists across the Persian Gulf, urging his Twitter followers to help end government atrocities; his following had swelled to over 470,000 before Twitter suspended his account in August 2014 (weeks later, he rejoined). “Did you know that bringing down Damascus would not cost more than $10 million?” he asked at a 2012 event in Qatar. “The priority is the support for the jihadists and arming them.”

Jihadi John
Islamic State militant
Syria
For being the poster boy of expat jihadism.

The videotaped beheading of American journalist James Foley sparked international outrage over both the brutality of the act and the identity of the masked executioner: The militant appeared to be British. Dubbed “Jihadi John” by Fleet Street, he is among the thousands of foreign fighters who have traveled to the Middle East to fight alongside the Islamic State.

Such jihadi migration is nothing new. From the mujahideen to Chechen rebels, Islamist groups have long looked to foreign nationals to swell their ranks. Yet, relying on propaganda, the Islamic State has attracted foreign fighters on a massive scale. As many as 15,000 foreigners, including some 1,900 Westerners, have joined militant groups in Syria, according to some estimates.

Western officials say they have identified Jihadi John, presumed to be the killer of three other hostages—one American and two Britons—whose beheadings have been videotaped. But even if the hooded militant can be tracked down, there will be plenty of foreign recruits to take his place.