[08.07.24经济学家] 汇率——巨无霸指数

erihao

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【媒体出处】http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11784836
【中文翻译】erihao
【声明】本文翻译仅供Anti-CNN内部使用，谢绝转载！

【原文】

The Big Mac Index
Sandwiched

Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Burgernomics says currencies are very dear in Europe but very cheap in Asia

EVER since the credit storms first broke last August, the prices ofstocks, bonds, gold and other investment assets have been blown thisway and that. Currencies have been pushed around too. Did thisbuffeting bring them any closer to their underlying fair value? Notaccording to the Big Mac Index, our lighthearted guide to exchangerates. Many currencies look more out of whack than in July 2007, whenwe last compared burger prices.

The Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity(PPP), which says that exchange rates should move to make the price ofa basket of goods the same in each country. Our basket contains just asingle item, a Big Mac hamburger, but one that is sold around theworld. The exchange rate that leaves a Big Mac costing the same indollars everywhere is our fair-value yardstick.
         
   
  Only a handful of currencies are close to their Big Mac PPP. Of theseven currencies that make up the Federal Reserve’s major-currencyindex, only one (the Australian dollar) is within 10% of its fairvalue. Most of the rest look expensive. The euro is overvalued by amassive 50%. The British pound, Swedish krona, Swiss franc and Canadiandollar are also trading well above their burger benchmark. All are moreovervalued against the dollar than a year ago. Only the Japanese yen,undervalued by 27%, could be considered a snip.

The dollar still buys a lot of burger in the rest of Asia too. TheSingapore dollar is undervalued by 18% and the South Korean won by 12%.The currencies of less well-off Asian countries, such as Indonesia,Malaysia and Thailand, look even cheaper. China’s currency is among themost undervalued, though a bit less so than a year ago.

The angrier type of China-basher might conclude that the yuan shouldrevalue so that it is much closer to its burger standard. But careneeds to be taken when drawing hard conclusions from fast-food prices.PPP measures show where currencies should end up in the long run.Prices vary with local costs, such as rents and wages, which are lowerin poor countries, as well as with the price of ingredients that tradeacross borders. For this reason, PPP is a more reliable comparison forthe currencies of economies with similar levels of income.

For all these caveats, more sophisticated analyses come to broadlysimilar conclusions to our own. John Lipsky, number two at the IMF,said this week that the euro is above the fund’s medium-term valuationbenchmark. China’s currency is “substantially undervalued” in the IMF’sview. The dollar is sandwiched in between. The big drop in thegreenback’s value since 2002 has left it “close to its medium-termequilibrium level,” said Mr Lipsky.

If that judgment is right, the squalls stirred up by the creditcrises have moved at least one currency—the world’s reservemoney—closer to fair value. Curiously the crunch has not shaken faithin two currencies favoured by yield-hungry investors: the Brazilianreal and Turkish lira. These two stand out as emerging-marketcurrencies that trade well above their Big Mac PPPs. Both countrieshave high interest rates. Turkey’s central bank recently raised itsbenchmark rate to 16.75%; Brazil’s pushed its key rate up to 13% onJuly 23rd. These rates offer juicy returns for those willing to bearthe risks. Those searching for a value meal should look elsewhere.

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erihao

【译文】

巨无霸指数
挤在中间

汉堡包经济学说明现在欧洲的货币很贵，但是亚洲的货币却非常便宜

自从去年八月信贷风暴爆发以来，股票、债券、黄金以及其它投资资产的价格都受到这样或那样的冲击，而且各国货币也同样被推来推去。这样的价格波动会使的它们接近其基本的公正的价值吗？根据我们简单的汇率指导工具——巨无霸指数来看，事情并非如此。许多货币看上去比我们上次在2007年七月比较汉堡包价格时，变得更不正常。

巨无霸指数是建立在购买力平价理论的基础上。购买力平价理论认为，汇率应该使得一篮子商品的价格在各个国家都相同。我们篮子里的商品只有一样——麦当劳的巨无霸汉堡包，但它却是在全世界都销售的商品。使世界各地巨无霸的售价在折算成美元后是否相等，是我们衡量汇率是否公允的价值尺度。

只有一小部分货币接近它们的巨无霸购买力平价。在构成美联储主要货币指数的七种货币中，只有一个（澳大利亚元）是在其10％的公平价值范围内的。其它大多数都看起来非常贵。欧元被大幅高估50％。英镑，瑞典克朗，瑞士法郎和加拿大元的汇率同样也是高于其汉堡包基准。所有这些货币对美元汇率都比一年前要高。只有日元被低估了27％，可以认为是个例外。

在亚洲其它地区美元同样也是能买很多汉堡包的。新加坡元被低估18％，而韩国则是12％。在一些经济不太繁荣的亚洲国家，比如印尼、马来西亚和泰国，货币看起来则更便宜些。中国的货币是被最严重低估的货币之一，虽然比一年前略好些。

愤怒的中国抨击者可能会作出结论说，人民币必须重新估值以与其汉堡包标准接近。但是从快餐价格得出强硬结论应该谨慎些。购买力平价方法显示出货币的长期比价关系。价格由于当地成本而不同，例如租金和工资，这在贫穷的国家会很低，跨境交易的配料价格也同样如此。由于这样的原因，购买力平价方法在比较有相近收入的经济体的货币时更为可靠。

尽管有这些附加的解释，但是更加精密的分析结果和我们的结果大体相同。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的二号人物John Lipsky本周说，欧元高于国际货币基金组织的中期的估价基准。而且以国际货币基金组织的观点来看，中国货币被“严重低估”。美元介于其间。 Lipsky说，从2002年以来的美元大幅度贬值使其“接近它的中期均衡水平”。

如果上述判断是对的话，信贷危机导致的风暴至少使得一种货币——世界储备货币（指美元，译者注）——接近其公平价值。令人奇怪的是，信贷紧缩没有动摇渴望收益的投资者对于两种货币的信心：巴西的雷亚尔和土耳其的里拉。这两种货币在新兴市场的货币中表现非常出色，高于其巨无霸购买力平价。这两个国家都有着高利率。土耳其央行最近提高其基准利率到16.75％，巴西则在7月23日将其关键利率提高到13％。对于那些愿意承担风险的人而言，这样的利率水平提供了丰厚的收益。但对那些想要寻找一份超值的饭菜的人老说，则要到别处了。