【08.10.08 路透社】中国能为缓解全球风暴做什么
【原文标题】What China can do to ease global storm
【原文标题】中国能为缓解全球风暴做什么
【登载媒体】路透社
【来源地址】http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE49723H20081008?sp=true
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译仅供Anti-CNN使用，如需转载请注明译者及本站链接，谢谢！
【原文】(由Eadie Chen和Simon Rabinovitch分析)
BEIJING (Reuters) - China, the world's biggest holder of currency reserves, may yet play an important part in calming a global financial storm from which it is largely sheltered.
Premier Wen Jiabao, who has promised to "join hands" with other nations to tackle the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, says the biggest contribution China can make is to keep the world's fourth-largest economy humming.
To that end, China has already cut interest rates and is expected to do so again. Yet speculation is swirling that Beijing could also chip in with a vote of confidence by pledging to hold onto its vast dollar assets and even buy more to help fund the massive bailout of the U.S. financial system now under way.
"For the sake of long-term U.S.-China relations, for the sake of China presenting a better image, I think China should stand up and say that it supports the U.S. dollar and is buying Treasuries," said Tao Xie, an expert on U.S.-China relations at the Beijing Foreign Studies University.
On one level, doing so would be very much in China's self-interest. Perhaps two-thirds of its $1.81 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is in U.S. Treasury and other bonds, and there was much hand-wringing during the dollar's slide earlier this year at the hefty losses Beijing was incurring.
"The dollar assets are held hostage. Dumping them is in nobody's interest," said Ding Zhijie, a finance professor who advises the government on foreign exchange management.
CHINA'S PREDICAMENT
On the other hand, there is a strong current of opinion in official circles that America has only itself to blame. A leading state newspaper said on Tuesday that China should not foot the bills for U.S. woes, while a commentary on Wednesday lashed Washington for its lax, short-sighted monetary policy.
And China's state-owned banks and its sovereign wealth fund, stung by losses on earlier investments, have conspicuously kept their hands in their pockets while Japanese financial firms have bought into Wall Street's fallen or ailing giants.
"China is an unavoidable predicament. It will eventually have to buy U.S. Treasuries, but it should do this in exchange for something from the United States," said Mei Xinyu, a senior researcher at the Commerce Ministry.
As a quid pro quo, researchers suggested, Beijing should press Washington to open U.S. markets wider to Chinese firms, take concrete steps to stabilize the dollar and help China wield more power in bodies such as the International Monetary Fund.
Muddying the debate is the politics of Taiwan, a renegade island over which China claims sovereignty.
Plans unveiled by the Pentagon on Friday to sell around $6.5 billion in arms to Taiwan triggered a furious response in China.
"The probability that China will come out openly to say it supports U.S. Treasuries has been reduced by the announcement of the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. When an issue comes up related to Taiwan, China tends to pick Taiwan as more important than whatever else, even the economy," said Xie.
POLICY EASING ON THE WAY
The global crisis has had little impact on China to date through financial channels. Far from depending on capital inflows, it is a huge exporter of savings; the financial system is awash with cash; capital controls shield it from volatile outflows; and its banks are underdeveloped and inward-looking.
Yet collateral damage through economic linkages are a growing concern. Exports are softening and recent surveys of purchasing managers have been weak.
Auto sales growth has slowed to single digits. Housing sales in major cities have almost ground to a halt as people expect prices to fall further. And four big steelmakers have agreed to cut output by 20 percent to prop up prices.
"I personally feel that the economic fundamentals are undergoing dramatic changes," said an official close to a team from the National Development and Reform Commission that visited five central provinces last month to take the pulse of business.
The official said China has plenty of room to adjust policy so that domestic demand takes up the slack left by drooping exports. But it had to move quickly before it was too late.
Economists confidently expect that a major Communist Party conclave starting on Thursday will sanction a further easing of monetary policy and a more stimulative fiscal policy in the form of tax cuts and extra government spending.
CICC Securities said it expects Beijing to cut benchmark lending rates by up to 160 basis points in the coming 12 months.
"Against the backdrop of global rate cuts, the external environment for China to cut rates is ripe now," the China Securities Journal said in a front-page commentary on Wednesday. (Editing by Alan Wheatley)
【译文】
中国作为世界上最大的外汇储备国（尚未但）可以扮演一个重要的角色为缓解全球金融风暴提供一个大的栖息所。
温家宝总理答应过与其他国家“携手”应对自大萧条时期以来最为严重的金融危机，他表示中国所能做的最大贡献就是继续巩固世界第四大经济体的地位。
中国为此已下调利率，预计还会再次下调。然而也有人认为北京方面应该下决心动用其庞大的美元资产（或继续加大购买）来帮助正在进展中的美国金融系统救援大行动。
北京外国语大学一位中美关系研究专家Tao xie表示：“为了中美的长期利益考虑，为了展示中国更好的形象，我认为中国应该站出来发表支持美元的言论并购买美国债券”。
从某个层面上看这样做也有利于中国自身的利益。也许中国1.81万亿美元外汇储备中的三分之二是美国国债和其他债券，在今年早些时候美元疲软北京方面遭受了巨额损失，引起不少争议。
Ding Zhijie是一位金融学教授，为政府的外汇管理提供咨询建议。他说：“不应动用美元资产，抛售资产对谁都无好处”。
中国的困境
在另一方面，当前官方圈子中有一种强烈的意见认为美国是自作自受。一家颇为权威的国有媒体周二发表言论称中国不应为美国困境买单；周三则有评论抨击华盛顿方面松散而短视的货币政策。
中国的国有银行和财富基金被早前的投资损失刺痛，显然捂紧了口袋。而日本金融机构则走进华尔街收购因经营不善面临破产的公司。
Mei Xinyu是商务部的一位高级研究员，他表示说：“中国无法对此作壁上观。最终它不得不购买美国债券，但应该以此来与美国达成其他协议”。
作为回报，研究人员建议北京方面应该给华盛顿方面施加压力向中国企业开放美国市场、逐步稳定美元汇率以及帮助在例如国际货币基金组织这样的机构中发挥更大的作用。
台湾局势正是中美较量中的焦点，台湾是个分裂出的岛屿，但中国宣称对其拥有主权。
上周五五角大楼通过了一项对台出售价值约65亿美元的武器计划，引起中国的强烈愤慨。
Tao Xie表示：“随着美国对台出售武器，中国站出来公开表示支持美国的可能性变小。任何问题扯上台湾，中国都将毫不犹豫把台湾问题放在更加重要的位置，经济也不例外”。
宽松的政策有望到来
全球危机就财政渠道而言对中国几乎没什么影响。中国拥有庞大的储蓄出口型金融体系，远不依赖于外来资金；金融系统充斥着现金；资金控制规避了不稳定的资金外流的负面影响；中国的银行不发达偏内向型。
然而经济相关联产生的间接损害正日益成为人们关注的焦点。出口日见疲软，最近对采购经理进行的调查结果也不乐观。
汽车销售增长速度降至个位数，出于人们对房价进一步下降的期望大城市的房地产销售几乎停顿，四家大的钢铁生产企业已达成协议减产20%以维持价格。
上月国家发展和改革委员会派出一个小组前往五个中心省份为经济搭脉，了解此事的一位官员表示：“我个人觉得经济基本面正在发生戏剧性的变化”。
该官员称中国的政策调整有着很大的空间，出口的低迷可以由内需来填补。但必须及时作出迅速的调整。
经济学家们充满信心地期待中共于周四召开的一个大型会议能达成共识进一步放宽货币政策，以减税和缩减政府开支等形式刺激更为宽松的财政政策。中金证券预计在未来一年内贷款基准利率有望降至160个基本点。
中国证券报周三头版评论文章说：“在未来全球利率走低的情况下，中国降息的外部环境已经成熟”。(Alan Wheatley编辑)
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