本帖最后由 尘音六戒 于 2010-6-4 16:25 编辑
【中文标题】中国掌握着韩朝和平的关键 【英文标题】China holds the key to Korean peace 【来源媒体】英国每日电讯 【原文库连接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=243483&rpid=3533991&ordertype=0&page=1#pid3533991 【来源网址】http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7747774/China-holds-the-key-to-Korean-peace.html 【译 者】尘音六戒 【翻译方式】人工 【声 明】本文供Anti-CNN/ACCN使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作。 【译 文】
The Beijing government must cast aside its softly-softly approach to Pyongyang, says Con Coughlin.
Con Coughlin表示，北京政府应当抛开其对平壤的温和态度。
By Con Coughlin
作者：Con Coughlin
Published: 6:29AM BST 21 May 2010
发表时间：2010年5月31日6:29
Even by the standards of the military clashes that have become a perennial feature of life on the Korean peninsula, the sinking of a South Korean warship by a North Korean mini-submarine marks an alarming, and potentially catastrophic, escalation in tensions between the two countries. 即使在常年军事冲突已经是生活特色的朝鲜半岛，韩国一艘军舰被朝鲜的一艘小型潜艇击沉，也意味着两国之间的紧张局势会有一次令人震惊的，甚至可能是灾难性的升级。
Since the end of the Second World War, there have been only two notable submarine actions that have resulted in the sinking of enemy ships, and both of them have taken place in time of war. The Indian frigate sunk by a Pakistani Daphne class submarine in 1971 was torpedoed during the Indo-Pakistani war, while the controversial attack on the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano by the Royal Navy's nuclear-powered submarine HMS Conqueror was launched during the military campaign to liberate the Falkland Islands.
自第二次世界大战结束以来，造成了敌方船只沉没的著名潜艇行动只有两次，而这两次行动都是在战争中发生的。1971年印巴战争的时候，印度护卫舰被一艘巴基斯坦“女神”级中型潜艇击沉。而在解放法兰克福群岛的军事行动中，英国皇家海军核潜艇“征服者号”对阿根廷巡洋舰“贝尔格拉诺将军号”发动了一次具有争议的攻击。
To that list must now be added the unprovoked torpedo attack on March 26 by a North Korean mini-sub on: the Cheonan, a 1,200 tonne South Korean corvette that sank with the loss of 46 lives.
现在这一名单需要补充了：朝鲜一艘小型潜艇于3月26日使用鱼雷无故击沉韩国1200吨级护卫舰“天安号”，造成46人丧生。
In naval warfare there is nothing sailors fear more than a submarine attack. A submarine's ability to manoeuvre undetected below the waves into an attacking position before launching its lethal cargo makes even the best-equipped naval vessels vulnerable. Certainly, the 104-strong crew of the Cheonan had no inkling that they were about to suffer a catastrophic hit as they undertook a routine patrol on the treacherous Yellow Sea, the scene of several previous naval confrontations between North and South Korea.
在海战中，没有什么比潜水艇攻击更令士兵们恐惧的了。潜艇能在发射其致命武器之前，在水下不被发现的移动至可攻击位置，潜艇这一能力可以使装备最好的舰艇也显得很脆弱。当然，令“天安号”上的104位强壮的船员没有想到的是，他们会在对黄海的例行巡逻途中遭受到致命的攻击。黄海是前几次韩朝海军对抗发生的地点。
Survivors of the attack have recounted how they were not put on any special alert before the attack, and were unaware that they were under threat from a North Korean mini-sub. One of the officers said the sound of the blast was so loud his eardrums burst. 袭击的幸存者们讲述了他们在被攻击以前没有接到任何特别警告，也并没有意识到他们受到一艘朝鲜小型潜艇的威胁。一名军官说，巨大的爆炸声造成了他的耳膜破裂。
The sailors also insisted that they had not strayed from their normal patrol course, which was regularly undertaken to guard against possible North Korean incursions.
水兵们还坚持认为，他们没有离开正常的巡逻路线，这是为了防止朝鲜可能的入侵而进行的定期巡逻。
At the time of the attack, the Chenoan was operating near Baengnyeong Island, a heavily garrisoned outpost off the North Korean coast. The area is the scene of regular clashes between the rival navies as the maritime boundary has been disputed since the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953. Tensions have intensified since North Korea announced last year that it was abandoning the terms of the armistice, a move that prompted China to withdraw its 280-strong fishing fleet from the disputed waters.
袭击发生时，“天安号”正在白翎岛附近作业，该处在朝鲜海岸附近，是一个有大量韩国驻军的哨所。1953年朝鲜战争结束后停战协议签订以来，海上边界一直有争议，该地区经常发生韩朝两国海军之间的冲突。自从去年朝鲜宣布废止这一停战协议，紧张局势加剧，此举也促使中国从争议水域撤出其由280艘渔船组成的船队。
Last November a North Korean patrol boat was fired on by the South Korean navy after it entered South Korean waters and refused to return to the North. The North Korean ship was partially destroyed but managed to escape back across the Naval Limit Line, the disputed sea border between the two Koreas. The South Koreans were taking no chances after the North Koreans managed to seize a South Korean fishing vessel the previous July after it accidentally strayed into North Korean waters. 去年11月一艘朝鲜巡逻艇进入韩国水域并拒绝退回到北方，受到韩国海军火力射击。该朝鲜船只部分受损，但设法逃回了“北方限制线”，“北方限制线”是朝鲜和韩国之间的有争议的海上分界线。前年7月一艘韩国渔船意外进入朝鲜领域，朝鲜设法扣留了这艘渔船，之后韩国一直对朝鲜有所提防。
But you have to go back to 1987 for a North Korean act of aggression comparable to the torpedo attack on the Cheonan, when two North Korean spies successfully planted a bomb in the luggage rack of a South Korean airliner, which exploded in mid-air killing 115. Even though one of the bombers provided a full confession, on that occasion the North Koreans escaped any retaliatory action – although Pyongyang's involvement was widely condemned at the UN.
但是如果想找出朝鲜的另一个可媲美对“天安号”进行鱼雷攻击的侵略行为，你得追溯至1987年，当年两个朝鲜间谍成功的将一个炸弹放置在一架韩国客机的行李架上，爆炸造成了115人丧生。尽管其中一名袭击者供认不讳，当时的朝鲜却没有遭到任何报复行动——虽然平壤的参与其中在联合国受到广泛谴责。
Whether the North Koreans are made to suffer the consequences of their involvement in the Cheonan disaster will depend on proving that the attack was premeditated, as opposed to being a catastrophic error of judgment. At present, Western military experts are leaning to the view that the commander of the North Korean vessel panicked under pressure and launched the torpedoes without considering the consequences of his action.
朝鲜是否应该承担参与制造“天安号”灾难的后果，取决于证明这次袭击是有预谋的还是一次判断上的灾难性错误。目前，西方的军事专家都倾向于这样的观点，朝鲜舰艇上的指挥官在恐慌的压力下发射了鱼雷，而没有考虑到这一行为的后果。
"It is easy to imagine a scenario where a submarine commander believes he is about to come under attack and gives the order to fire," said a senior military intelligence officer. "Both navies are operating in a highly volatile area where the slightest wrong move by either side might be misinterpreted as a provocative act."
“很简单，想象这样一个场景，一个潜艇指挥官认为自己马上会受到攻击，于是下达了开火的命令。”一名高级军事情报人员说，“双方海军都在一个非常动荡不安的区域作业，任何一方的任何一个微不足道的错误举动，都将可能被视为挑衅行为。”
But then, given the unstable nature of the North Korean regime, it is equally feasible that for some bizarre reason the attack was launched on the orders of Pyongyang.
但是，鉴于朝鲜政权不稳定的特质，因为任何一个奇怪的原因而让平壤指示了此次袭击，也是不足为奇的。
During the 1980s, when Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, was in the process of negotiating his own rise to power, the North Koreans were involved in a series of terrorist attacks on South Korea, which were undertaken to demonstrate Kim's allegiance to the North Korean cause. These included a bomb attack on a South Korean delegation undertaking an official visit to Burma, as well as the bombing of the Korean Air flight.
在20世纪80年代，当朝鲜领导人金正日在自己逐渐掌权的过程中，朝鲜参与了多起针对韩国的恐怖袭击，这是朝鲜人表明拥护金正日的方式。这其中包括韩国对缅甸进行正式访问时朝鲜对韩国代表团进行炸弹袭击，以及韩国客机的爆炸事件。
A new succession battle is now said to be taking place in Pyongyang amid a flurry of reports that the 69-year-old Kim Jong-il is suffering from bad health. In 2008 "the Great Leader", as he is known throughout the country, was reported to have suffered a cerebral haemorrhage and lost the use of some of his limbs. The country's reclusive dictator is said to have made a partial recovery, to the extent that earlier this month he made an official visit to China, where he is understood to have discussed North Korea's economic plight, as well as Chinese approval for his plans to hand power over to Kim Jong-un, his third and youngest son.
据说由于一些列报告显示69岁的金正日健康欠佳，一场新的继承战已经在平壤打响。2008年，朝鲜全国称之为“伟大领袖”的金正日被报道患有脑溢血，四肢活动不便。朝鲜独裁者的健康据说已经恢复了一些，其恢复程度足够他本月初对中国进行了正式访问。据悉，他和中国方面讨论了朝鲜的经济困境，以及就他计划将权力交给第三个和最小的儿子金正银征得中国的同意。
Kim Jong-un has been described by North Korean defectors as being "just like his father", and has the same hard-line political outlook and explosive temper as his father. Like his father and grandfather before him, Kim Jong-un has now been given the official North Korean sobriquet "The Brilliant Comrade". But Kim Jong-il's plans for the succession have attracted opposition, not least from Chang Sung-taek, the dictator's brother-in-law, who harbours ambitions of his own to assume leadership.
“同他父亲一个样”朝鲜叛逃者们这样描述金正银，而且也具备同样强硬的政治见解，以及和他父亲一样的暴脾气。像他的父亲和之前的祖父，金正银已经被授予朝鲜的官方绰号“尊敬的金正银同志”。但金正日对于继承的计划引起了包括其妹夫张泽成在内的反对，张泽成怀有自己取得领导权的野心。
In order to cement the younger Kim's power base and control of the army, it is possible that Pyongyang could have authorised a fresh round of attacks on South Korean targets, which resulted in the torpedo attack on the Cheonan.
平壤有可能会为了巩固小金的权力基础和对军队的控制，授意了对韩国目标的新一轮攻击，从而导致了以鱼雷袭击“天安号”。
Whether the Cheonan was the result of a grave military error, or a casualty of renewed political in-fighting in Pyongyang, the challenge for South Korea and its allies now is how best to respond to the provocation. Seoul has promised retaliatory measures, and is pressing the United Nations Security Council to respond following the publication of an independent report which concluded that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan.
无论“天安号”事件是一个严重的军事错误，或者是平壤政权更迭斗争的牺牲品，对于韩国及其盟友来说，现在面临的挑战是如何最好地应对挑衅。首尔发誓要采取报复行动，并且在发布了结论是“天安号”被一枚朝鲜鱼雷击沉的独立调查报告之后，敦促联合国安理会对此作出反应。
But the West's options for responding to the attack are limited. Military action is out of the question, as it would only lead to a resumption of all-out war in the Korean peninsula, which would have disastrous consequences for South Korea.
但是，西方对袭击可选择的反应方式是有限的。军事行动是不可能的，因为这只会导致朝鲜半岛上战争的全面爆发，而这将为韩国带来灾难性的后果。
A new round of sanctions will achieve little, as North Korea is already subject to a crippling international sanctions regime because of its continued refusal to co-operate over its nuclear programme. And any attempt by the UN to punish Pyongyang for its role in the Cheonan affair would inevitably meet with resistance from China, the regime's regional protector.
新一轮的制裁将收效甚微，朝鲜已经因为在其核计划上持续拒绝合作而受到国际制裁。联合国试图因其在“天安号”事件中所扮演角色来惩罚平壤的任何尝试，都将不可避免的遭到来自朝鲜政权的保护者中国的阻力。
For years, China has advocated a softly-softly approach to North Korea in the vain hope that Pyongyang could be persuaded to follow China's own transition from cultish despotism to economic reform. China will now argue that tough action against North Korea could further destabilise a regime that is already suffering from economic meltdown.
多年来，中国一直在对朝鲜进行温和而无望的努力，试图说服平壤像自己一样从狂热专制过渡到经济改革。中国现在会辩称，对朝鲜采取强硬行动，可能会进一步动摇一个已经遭受经济崩溃痛苦的政权。
This may well be the case, but if China has serious pretensions to becoming a major world power, then it needs to bring all its influence to bear on the North Korean regime to ensure that there is no recurrence of the Cheonan disaster. While the Chinese yesterday adopted their customary non-committal stance on North Korea, describing the Cheonan attack as "unfortunate", China is the only country that can exercise real influence on the Kim clan.
情况也许的确这样，但是如果中国具有成为一个世界大国的强大野心，那么它必须向朝鲜政权施加自己的影响力，确保“天安号”事件不会再次发生。尽管中国昨天根据其一贯的对朝鲜问题不做任何表态的立场，将“天安号”事件描述为“不幸的”，中国仍然是唯一一个可以向金氏施加实质影响的国家。
Beijing's recent decision to back a new UN resolution for sanctions against Iran demonstrates that China is slowly waking up to the global responsibilities that go with being one of the world's leading powers. Now it must do the same with North Korea in order to prevent any escalation in hostilities.
北京最近决定支持一份新的联合国对伊朗的制裁决议，这表明中国与其作为世界强国之一相符的国际责任心正慢慢的觉醒。现在，它必须同等对待朝鲜，以防止任何敌对行动的升级。
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实在忍不住说两句。
翻译了两篇和韩朝冲突有关的外媒报道，发现它们的口气何其相似。 1、肯定了击沉天安号的一定是朝鲜的鱼雷，全然不顾各国军事专家高级将领们对这个事件发生的可能性的分析，选择性失明； 2、把韩国有意无意的塑造成一个无辜的受害者，对于韩国是否有错误只字不提，热衷于描述朝鲜和朝鲜人有多么邪恶； 3、一个劲的鼓吹“中国影响论”，一再强调这是中国的责任，无论作为一个世界强国还是因为对朝鲜的影响力，吹捧和威胁齐上。
隐约感觉，要么就是这些西方国家其实还是有点畏惧朝鲜（也许只是潜意识），同时基于对自己的利益考量，所以一定要不分皂白的针对朝鲜，并且把中国顶上火线=w=
再感慨一次，西方国家狼子野心依然啊。 | 
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发表于 2010-6-4 15:26
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