本帖最后由 千年明月 于 2010-8-4 21:30 编辑
【原文标题】China expert says academics claims China will 'dominate' in the next 30 years 'pessimistic'
【中文标题】中国专家对于中国将在未来30年“主宰”亚洲的观点表示悲观
【来源地址】http://www.news.com.au/national/china-expert-says-academics-claims-china-will-dominate-in-the-next-30-years-pessimistic/story-e6frfkvr-1225900504290
【译者】译四小姐
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本文供Anti-CNN/ACCN使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-258169-1-1.html
【译 文】
A LEADING Australian expert on China has described a visiting US academic's claims a "non-peaceful" China would seek to dominate Asia as "deeply pessimistic".
一位权威的澳大利亚中国问题专家描述了一位美国来访学者的观点：对于一个“非和平”的中国将寻求主宰亚洲的观点“深感悲观”。
Considered to be one of the US's leading strategic thinkers, Professor John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago, warned Australia yesterday that over the next 30 years China would seek to dominate Asia and said that its rise would not be peaceful.
一位美国的权威战略思想家，来自芝加哥大学约翰.米尔谢姆教授，昨天警告澳大利亚，中国将在未来30年寻求主宰亚洲，并且不会通过一种很和平的方式。
"If China grows in the next 30 years as it has over the last 30 years, it will seek to dominate Asia the way America dominates the western hemisphere," the professor said at Sydney University.
他在悉尼大学说道，“如果中国在未来30年保持它在过去30年的增长速度，它将寻求像美国称霸西半球一样称霸亚洲。”
"If China turns into a greater Hong Kong, it will try to push the United States out of Asia and develop its own Munroe Doctrine - a reference to a US policy of dominating other countries in the Americas.
“如果中国变成一个特大号香港，它会试图把美国赶出亚洲，来发展自己的“门罗主义”——一种美国主导美洲国家事务的外交思想
"I think that China cannot rise peacefully and that this is largely pre-determined."
“我认为，中国不可能和平崛起，并且（在这个崛起的过程中）需要做大量准备。”
A foreign policy realist, Prof Mearsheimer opposed the Iraq war, is a fierce critic of the Israeli lobby in the US and a sceptic about American decline.
这位外交政策的现实主义者，反对伊拉克战争的米尔斯海默教授，对以色列在美国的游说官员持激烈的批评态度，另一方面，他对美国衰落论持怀疑态度。
He will deliver the annual Michael Hintze Lecture at Sydney University tomorrow. His host, Sydney University's Alan Dupont, described Prof Mearsheimer as "America's boldest and perhaps most controversial thinker in the field of international relations".
他明天将要在悉尼大学进行年度的迈克尔欣策演讲。主办者悉尼大学的艾伦杜邦形容米尔斯海默教授是“美国在国际关系领域最大胆和最有争议的思想家
However, Professor Stuart Harris from the Australian National University's School of International, Political & Strategic Studies said Prof Mearsheimer’s views were extreme among China experts.
然而，来自澳大利亚国立大学国际政治和战略研究学院的斯图尔特哈里斯教授认为米尔斯海默教授的观点在中国问题的学者圈子中相对极端
"The time he is talking about in the next 30 years and his view on China is one of extreme pessimism,” Prof Harris said.
“他对于未来30年以及他对中国的看法是极端悲观的，”哈里斯教授说。
"The debate about China has been going on for thirty years and the (Chinese) leadership has taken a very steady line on most things and they are going to think very carefully about which line they take into the future.
关于中国的辩论已经持续了30年，在这期间，中国的领导人在大部分事情上采取求稳的方针，同时他们也将会更加谨慎的考虑未来他们将采取的方针政策。
"There’s no doubt China will try to be more active and to some extent dominate in South East Asia, but I don’t think they will get to a point where they will outpace the US in that timeframe, the US will be able to keep up.”
“毫无疑问，中国将试图在国际关系中展现更积极的态度，在一定程度上主宰东南亚，但我不认为他们将会他们在这个时间段内超过美国，美国将有能力保持住自己的地位。”
Prof Harris said China had huge internal domestic problems to overcome; millions still living in poverty despite record economic growth over past decades, the ongoing social and political problems of transitioning to an open market economy, and growing unrest among the burgeoning middle class on issues such as the environment and systemic state corruption.
哈里斯教授说，中国有许多国内问题需要去处理；尽管经济增长超过了过去的几十年，但数百万人依旧生活在贫困中，转型过程中出现的社会与政治问题，以及对环境污染和制度性腐败等问题，日益加深了蓬勃生长的新兴中产阶级的不安。
“China has along way to go to cope with all its problems, there are people in the system who want to do what Mearsheimer says they do, but there's still many domestic problems to resolve first and they don’t want the rest of South East Asia ganging up on them with the US, so they will be cautious,” he said.
他说，“中国都用一直以来的方式去应对所有的问题，确实有许多人想去做米尔斯海默教授提到的“非和平崛起”，但是首先应该去解决的是那些国内问题，他们不希望其他南东亚国家与美国串通起来，所以他们会更加谨慎。”
"The hard headed naval people in China might want this type of future direction, but there's no sense of this from the leadership.”
“中国的保守派海军可能希望以这种模式崛起，但高层领导却不这么看。
He said an aggressive policy whereby China’s leaders sought to dominate the Asian region was not a “pre-determined” outcome as claimed by Prof Mearsheimer.
他认过去中国政府用来在亚洲扩大影响的政策并非是一个苦心经营的预设产物，而这一观点与米尔斯海默教授不谋而合。
"I think they realise there are many risks in this, China is very vulnerable. What they call their 'crown jewels' - the big industrial areas on the coast are very vulnerable (to military attack),” Prof Harris said.
哈里斯教授说，“我认为他们意识到这有许多风险，中国很容易受到攻击。他们所说的'皇冠上的宝石' - 沿海大工业区在承受军事打击方面都是十分脆弱的。”
“I don’t see them necessarily taking an aggressive confrontational approach against the US unless the US adopts such an approach towards them."
“我不认为他们一定对美国采取了积极的对抗方式，除非美国对他们采取这种做法。”
Prof Mearsheimer believes the US and its Asian allies, including Australia, will follow a strategy of "containment" and of "balancing" China in Asia. He says there is no difference between these concepts - thus dismissing the formula that underpins Australia's policy towards China.
教授米尔斯海默认为，美国及其亚洲盟国，包括澳大利亚，在亚洲对中国将采取遵循 “制约”与“平衡”的战略。他说，制约与平衡之间没有区别 - 因此撤回对于澳大利亚迈向中国政策的支持。
Profe Mearsheimer says that containment of China "is desirable from an American point of view". On Australia's potential conflict as a US ally and China's economic partner, he predicted we would develop closer economic ties with China but support the US to contain China's power.
米尔斯海默教授说，中国的遏制战略对于美国人的立场来说是合适的。而澳大利亚则存在潜在的冲突，因为它既是美国的盟友，也是中国的经济伙伴。因此米尔斯海默教授预言澳大利亚将与中国发展更密切的经济关系，并同时支持美国对中国力量的遏制。
The presence of nuclear weapons, he argued, meant there would be "no shooting war" between the US and China.
他认为核武器的存在意味着美国与中国之间将“不会发生军事战争”。 |
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