【路透111116】气候问题上中国可能使美国陷入孤立

EchoVan

【中文标题】气候问题上中国可能使美国陷入孤立
【原文标题】Analysis: China climate role could be to corner U.S.

【登载媒体】路透社

【来源地址】http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/16/us-un-climate-china-idUSTRE7AF1JU20111116

【译    者】EchoVan   

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译文】
(Reuters) - China, the world's biggest carbon emitter, could nudge the United States into more action on climate change, rescuing the latest round of global talks and improving its international reputation.
Expectations remain extremely low that a new global deal can emerge from a summit later this month in Durban, South Africa.
But it could lay the foundations for a future deal and desperate negotiators are looking to China to help isolate the United States in its stubborn climate change denial, even if it is only for reasons of enlightened self-interest.
"My sense is that if Durban fails it would be due to the lack of U.S. political will to deliver and if it succeeds it would be due to China's extra efforts," said Jennifer Morgan, director of the climate and energy program at environmental thinktank the World Resources Institute.
The United States has achieved local shifts on environment policy and developed emissions trading schemes at state and regional level.
However, it has twice delayed plans this year to regulate carbon dioxide from power plants and, under fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, automakers do not have to make improvements until 2018 or 2025.

中国，世界最大的碳排放国，可能会促使美国在气候问题上采取更多行动，从而挽救最新一轮的国际对话，并且提高本国国际声望。

人们已经几乎不指望本月下旬在南非德本召开的峰会能达成什么新的协议。但这至少可能为未来的协议打下基础。绝望的与会者希望中国能帮忙孤立美国，即使这只是出于对中国自身利益考虑。美国在气候变化问题上一直采取强硬的拒绝态度。“我觉得，德本会议如果失败了，都得归罪于美国缺乏采取行动的政治决心；要是会议能取得的成效，得感谢中国的特殊贡献。”环境问题智库，世界资源协会的气候与能源项目主管，詹妮弗·摩根说。

美国在环境政策上的态度最近有了改变，并已经在联邦和地区层面推出了排污交易计划。但是，美国今年已经两次延迟了规范发电厂二氧化碳排放的计划，而且，根据其现行的汽车能效标准，汽车制造商直到2018或2025年都不用进行改革。

A more far-reaching climate law failed last year to pass the U.S. Congress, where the environment has become a political battleground between Republicans and U.S. President Barack Obama's Democrats.
Obama, for all his personal commitment to the environment, has made clear the world's second biggest carbon emitter will not commit to a new legally-binding protocol at least until after the next presidential election.

去年，一项影响更大的环境法案也没能在国会通过。环境问题成了共和党和奥巴马总统的民主党进行政治角逐的砝码。奥巴马尽管自身愿意贡献于环境事业，也挑明了立场：世界第二的碳排放国（译者注：美国），至少在下届总统选举前，都不会签署任何新的有法律约束效力的协议。
NOT THE BIGGEST BOULDER
In China, a huge population and a series of devastating floods have underlined the risk of global warming and justified record-breaking investment in new energy technology.
Climate negotiators no longer see China as the biggest of the so-called boulder nations -- a group that also includes smaller boulders Japan, Canada and Russia, as well as the United States.

Within the European Union, which has spearheaded efforts this year to maintain momentum in the Kyoto process, officials say China has been helpful.

"We have great hopes with regard to China, which recently has been very constructive in its attitude toward Durban," Joanna Mackowiak-Pandera, Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of the Environment for Poland, said this week. Poland is current holder of the EU rotating presidency.
Some have gone further to say China can help to isolate the United States.
"I don't exclude the EU and China and other emerging economies making this strategic partnership for this climate issue and the U.S. being isolated," said Jo Leinen, chair of the environmental committee in the European Parliament.

中国不再是环境问题上的最大绊脚石

在中国，巨大的人口和一系列严重的洪灾已经指明了全球变暖的威胁，也使史无前例的新能源项目投资显得尤为重要。

气候问题呼吁者再也不把中国视为最大的“气候问题绊脚石国家”——这一名单还包括诸如日本，加拿大，俄罗斯等国，当然还有美国。
欧盟今年一直推动执行《京都议定书》。欧盟官员说，中国也帮了忙。

“我们对中国寄予厚望，中国对德本会议的态度很有建设性。”波兰环境部副部长，焦安娜·马克维克·潘德拉本周说。波兰目前是欧盟轮值主席国。

有些人进一步指出，中国可能会帮助孤立美国。

“在气候问题上，欧盟，中国，以及其他新兴经济体可以携起手来建立战略伙伴关系，而美国正在被孤立起来。”欧洲议会环境委员会主席，乔·雷楠说。
CHINA HAS DEVELOPED
After the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, the United States signed, but never ratified it.
China was still regarded as a developing nation and not expected to carry a large share of the cost of cutting carbon emissions, blamed on decades of pollution by the industrialized world.

Since then, China has overtaken many developed nations in economic output and has leapfrogged the United States to become the greatest producer of carbon emissions.
But it has also powered ahead in the low-carbon technology race investing $54 billion, compared to the United States' $34 billion, the U.S. Pew Environment Group said.
In the framework of Kyoto talks, China is still arguing, along with the other members of the BASIC group of nations -- Brazil, South Africa and India -- it should be counted as developing.

中国的发展

美国签署了1997年的《京都议定书》，但从未正式批准通过。

中国当时还被看做发展中国家，不用在减少碳排放任务中担负很大份额，因为考虑到工业化国家应该对这几十年的污染负责。

从那以后，中国在经济产量上已经超过了很多发达国家，更是一举超越美国成为世界最大的碳排放国。
但是，中国在低碳科技竞赛中也遥遥领先，投资额达到540亿美元，相比之下美国只有340亿美元，美国皮尤环境集团称。

在京都协议的框架内，中国仍然坚持，和其他BASIC四国成员---巴西，南非，印度----一样，中国还应算作发展中国家。
Environmental negotiators think it is time China recognized that being a world power should also mean leadership of the green race -- and joining in with environmental diplomacy as well as scrambling for energy and technology.
Within Kyoto, it should be leading the cuts, instead of benefiting from the U.N.'s Clean Development Mechanism, through which rich nations invest in clean energy projects in developing countries in return for carbon credits.

China has become the world's number one country in terms of registered CDM projects since the scheme's launch in 2005, although the environmental integrity of some projects has been questioned.
The European Union has made a leap of faith saying it will sign up to a second phase of Kyoto -- but on the condition that other countries give a firm commitment, or in EU-speak, a road map, showing when they would sign up too.

环境保护者认为，中国是时候明白，成为世界大国也意味着在环保事业上要起领头作用——在争抢能源和科技的同时，也要把环境问题列为外交政策之一。在京都议定书框架内，中国也要带头降低碳排放，而不是仅从联合国的清洁发展机制（ＣＤＭ）中受益。通过清洁发展机制，富裕国家投资于发展中国家的清洁能源计划，换取碳减排量。

自从2005年清洁发展机制实施以来，中国已注册的ＣＤＭ项目已居世界首位，尽管一些项目的环境可靠程度遭到了质疑。

欧盟已经做出了惊人的承诺，称将签署第二阶段的《京都议定书》——但前提是其他国家也要给出明确的承诺，或者，用欧盟的话说，一个路线图，指明他们加入签字的时间。
The question is whether China will break the deadlock, said Morgan of the WRI, and "commit to commit."
"My hope would be Europe and China would be working together to build a pathway forward," she said.
The EU, with its mighty debts and dependence on China to help bail it out, has limited bargaining power.

Visiting Chinese officials have nevertheless acknowledged the EU, a vital trade partner, has expertise to share.
"We need to focus on the green sector, and in this regard, Europe has the talent and the knowledge," Zhang Yangsheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economy, National Development and Reform Commission in Beijing, told a high-level EU-China forum in Brussels this month.
"We need to focus on energy saving. Europe is ahead of the others."

问题在于，中国是否能打破僵局， “承诺做出承诺，”世界资源协会的摩根说，“我希望欧盟和中国能携起手来共建未来。”

限于其巨额债务和对中国资助的依赖，欧盟可讨价还价的余地并不大。

到访的中国官员承认，欧盟作为其重要贸易伙伴，有着专业的技术可以借鉴。

“我们需要关注绿色产业，而在这一领域，欧洲有着技术和知识。”张养生（音），中国国家发展改革委员会对外经济司的司长，在这个月布鲁塞尔的中欧高级别会议上说。“我们需要关注能源节约。欧洲在这方面是领头人。”

fanancai

牛!先把话说在前头!如果中了，就有底气嚷嚷了：你看你看，我说对了吧；如果说“错了”，那目的已经达到了……