金融危机---驶入风暴 ( The Economist-The Financial Crisis-Into the Strom)

Rok-Viv

The financial crisis

金融危机

Into the storm

驶入风暴

How the emerging world copes with the tempest will affect the world economy and politics for a long time

新兴世界如何应对这次大风暴会对世界经济和政治将产生的长远影响

FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.

在去年的多数时间里，新兴世界快速发展的经济体遥望着西方的金融风暴。这些国家的银行拥有少量的会使发达国家的金融公司陷入混乱的抵押性资产。由于高原材料价格，商品出口商稳步发展。而中国经济上骇人的力量也正在壮大。从布达佩斯到巴西利亚，大量的贷款推动了内需。尽管关于自大萧条以来遭到最严重的金融崩溃的发达国家的讨论与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎金融风暴中心还有一段长的距离。

No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.

情况不再像以前那样了。由于外国资本已经流失，人们对其的信心也日渐消失，这就使得新兴世界的股票市场陷入困境（有些情况下，股票市场会出现暴跌）及其货币贬值。国外银行突然中断贷款，甚至回到了最基础的银行业务（如贸易信贷）。这样，信贷市场弊病的发作就导致了大的混乱。

Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less wellendowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a €5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.

发达国家和发展中国家政府为减少破坏都在这次危机中奋战。这对于外汇储备大的国家来说变得最为容易。俄罗斯出资2200亿美元来支撑其金融服务业。韩国也为其银行债务担保1000亿美元。资金相对少不足的国家正寻求帮助---匈牙利从欧洲中央银行获得了50亿欧元的“救命钱”，同时也向国际货币基金组织协商贷款（向国际货币基金组织寻求救援的还有乌克兰）。近十几个国家也正向基金组织求助。

Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter— still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.

问题长期存在的国家被迫采取最后的措施：阿根廷对其私人养老基金进行国有化，这看起来像是推脱责任。但即使是强势的国家也尤其虚弱的一面。本周的数据表明，中国今年第三季度的增长率放缓到9%，虽然增长速度依然很快，但对于近些年来的两位数的增长确实慢了许多。

The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.

各新兴国家都做好各样的准备，但累积的影响将会巨大无穷的。很明显，这些新兴国家进展得如何将会决定世界经济面临的是一场轻微的经济衰退，抑或是一场更为严重的经济大萧条。在过去的18个月里，新兴国家占全球经济增长的四分之三左右。但这些国家的经济到最后有的也是一个政治性的宿命。

In many places—eastern Europe is one example (see article)—financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse—either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession—there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.

在许多地方---比如西欧---金融风暴正席卷这些软弱的政府，即使那些强力的政府也会遭受这一痛苦。一些专家认为中国经济年增长率需要达到7%才能避免社会动乱。通常，接下来的争端会影响对世界经济一体化的讨论。与新兴国家以往的危机不同，本次的混乱始于发达国家，这很大程度上是由于不断趋于一体化的资本市场。如果新兴经济体崩溃---不管是陷入货币危机，抑或是大萧条---人们对金融全球化都会产生更多的质疑。

Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy—both at home and in the rich world— can yet avoid a catastrophe.

幸运的是这一恐怖的场景并未发生在世界的每个角落。所有的新兴国家都会放缓经济发展的脚步，无疑，其中的一些国家也会面临严重的经济衰退。但是许多国家都以比以往更为强势的姿态来面对当下的危机，并用巨额的储备、灵活的货币以及强大的预算来武装自己。不管是在新兴国家还是在发达国家，只要是好的政策都能避免一场灾难的发生。

One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.

希望犹在的原因就是发达国家的灾难带来的影响是可以应付的。欧美需求的减少危机到了出口，尤其是对亚洲和墨西哥的出口。商品的价格已经下跌：石油的价格与其最高点以及下跌了60%，而许多农作物及金属的价格却变得更加糟糕 --- 这带来了不同的影响：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的出口商都遭受打击，但却给亚洲的进口商带来了好处，也减少了世界各地对通货膨胀的担忧。像委内瑞拉一些国家由于经营不善而变得脆弱。然而，又因为这些国家过去的大繁荣，所以就现在来说糟糕的商品价格还不会造成大范围的危机。

The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.

对于商品价格下跌来说更为震惊的危机发生在金融领域。随着资产价格的下跌，财富也正面临着挤压缩水 --- 比如中国的房价就已经开始下跌了。即使新兴国家的消费者的负载要比发达国家的要少得多，但是这仍会使这些新兴国家的国内消费受挫。其他方面比如，国外银行贷款的突然短缺，对冲基金以及来自债券市场的其他投资者的外逃都迫使信贷发展放缓。只是发展迅速的信贷曾经支撑着强力的国内支出，因此，信贷的进一步紧缩意味着经济增长的放缓。

Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oilexporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is Eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.

需要再一次提到的是，影响会因各国的不同而有所不同。由于中国及海外地区的石油出口国拥有巨大的经常项目顺差，新兴经济体作为一个群体依旧向发达国家输送资本。但是80多个国家的财政赤字超过了GDP的5%。而这些国家中的大多数都是那些依靠国外救助的贫困国家，也有一些是依靠私人资本的大国。对那些像土耳其和南非一样在国外金融业务上突然放缓的国家来说，他们需要做出大的调整。尤其让人担忧的是东欧的许多国家都出现了两位数的赤字。此外，由于全球金融一体化，即使是像俄罗斯那样的顺差国的银行也已经开始习惯于毫不费力的外国贷款。发达国家对银行的救助或许会限制财富的缩水，但是对于资本流向新兴国家的速度却会放慢。作为银行家的一个组织，国际金融研究协会认为私人资本净额会比去年减少30%。

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.

这次的信贷紧缩是令人惧怕的，但是大多数新兴市场能够避开大的灾难，而且最大的几个市场的情况还相对良好。对于相对脆弱的市场来说能够，且也应该得到救助。

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow—perhaps to 8%—but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.

各大国都无法与中国相比：中国掌握着2万亿美国的储备，拥有着经常项目顺差，与国外银行的交易甚少，并且中国过剩的预算为其推动开支提供了巨大的空间。自从中国的领导人已经明确了他们会不惜一切代价来缓冲经济增长时，中国经济的增长速度就很有可能会放缓到8%，但不至于出现经济崩溃。虽然这并不足以挽救世界经济，但这样的增速却能为改善商品价格奠定基础，同时也对新兴世界里的其他国家有所帮助。

The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.

其他大的经济体将会受到更大的打击，但却应该能够度过这次风暴。印度的预算赤字巨大，而巴西的公司则出现巨大的外汇风险。但是巴西拥有多样化的经济，而且两个国家都拥有大量的储备来平稳过渡经济的放缓。对于拥有5000亿美元储备的俄罗斯来说，应该能够阻止卢布的持续贬值。至少在短期内，最为脆弱的国家还是那些小国家。

There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.

当更为紧缩的信贷强力要求做出调整时必然会带来痛苦。但是明智而迅速的国际救援会有所不同：一些新兴国家已向美联储寻求流动性支持；另外一些国家则希望中国能为它们提供援助。毋庸置疑，寻求国际国币基金组织（IMF）的帮助才是更好的出路，因为它拥有大量专业的建议，以及2500亿贷款基金。然而，悲哀的是向基金借钱成为了一种耻辱。这种想法应该改变。而国际国币基金组织应该形成更快更灵活的金融手段，并且使贷款条件最少化。在过去的一个月时间里，灵活的政策的制定送走了发达国家的灾难。现在，同样的事情会发生新兴世界。


原文网址：http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12471135




翻的不好，望指出，谢谢


[ 本帖最后由 Rok-Viv 于 2008-11-15 00:31 编辑 ]