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澳大利亚《每日清算》:中国:多元化措施摆脱美元的束缚

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发表于 2009-2-21 23:40 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
【原文标题】 China is Considering Ways to Diversify Out of the Dollar
【中文标题】 中国:多元化措施摆脱美元的束缚
【刊登媒体】 澳大利亚《每日清算》
【来源地址】 http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/china-is-considering-ways-to-diversify-out-of-the-dollar/2009/02/16/
【译  者】     xiongshu
【译  文】


China is Considering Ways to Diversify Out of the Dollar

  中国:多元化措施摆脱美元的束缚

"We hate you guys..."

  “我们对你们很不满...”

Mr. Luo Ping, director general at China's Banking Regulatory Commission, speaking in New York on Wednesday, shared his opinion of U.S. bailout policies:
"Once you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion ...we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do."

  中国银监会主席罗平上周三在纽约这样表达了他对美国经济救援计划的看法,“你们一旦开始实施这样一项耗资一两万亿的救援计划,我们就知道美元要贬值了,因此我们对你们的行为很不满,但却没有任何办法。”

Reports in the press this week say that China is considering ways to diversify out of the dollar. The Chinese are no fools. They see what is coming. And they know what it will do to them - the holders of the largest pile of dollars ever assembled.

  据这次新闻发布会的消息可知,中国政府正在考虑通过其他方法摆脱美元的限制。中国人不是傻子,作为现今最大的美元持有国,他们能察觉的到这样一个经济计划所带来的后果。

The Financial Times made it perfectly clear to them in a cartoon yesterday. It shows Barack Obama in front of a huge smoking trashcan filled with dollars. The president is pouring on gasoline.

  昨天那期《金融时报》的一幅漫画很清楚的描述了这一现状。在这幅漫画里,美国总统巴拉克.奥巴马先生正站在一个冒着滚滚浓烟的垃圾桶前,垃圾桶里烧着的是大把大把的美元,总统先生还在朝垃圾桶倒汽油。

Yes, dear reader, Mr. Ping has caught on. And the rest of the world is catching on too. The feds are printing trillions of dollars...and dumping them in banks and zombie corporations. They've got out their Zippo lighters...their firestarters...their kindling and crumpled paper.

  是的,亲爱的读者朋友们,罗主席看的目瞪口呆,世界上其他国家也和罗主席的反应一样---目瞪口呆。美国联邦政府正在夜以继日赶印美元,把大把大把的的美元注入银行和财务状况堪忧的企业。美国政府已经点着了Zippo打火机,火焰喷射枪,开始疯狂烧钱。他们是在糟蹋这些纸币。(译者注:估计作者是想说美国政府把钱投入破产或濒临破产的银行和企业无异于直接用Zippo打火机烧钱。)

But getting this blaze going is harder than most people think. It could take months...or even years.

  但要这个火焰一直烧下去比大多数人想象的难得多。政府要保持资金注入至少数月之久...甚至数年之久。

Yesterday, the Dow held steady. But oil continued to sink. The price per barrel fell below $35.

  就在昨天,道琼斯指数持平收盘,但原油价格仍在跌落。每桶原油的价格已经跌破35美元。

France is officially in recession, says today's La Tribune . GDP fell at a 1.2% rate in the last quarter, the government announced. A decline of 1% is expected for 2009.

  据今天的法国《论坛报》报道,法国官方宣布本国出现经济衰退。政府表示,在上一季度国内生产总值(GDP)下跌了1.2%,并预计在09年全年GDP会有1%的下跌。

Spain is in a worse recession. Property sales are off 30%. The GDP is expected to decline 3.3% this year. And unemployment is projected to reach 19% by 2010.

  西班牙正面临更糟糕的经济衰退。房地产销售量下降30%;GDP预计全年下降3.3%;而到2010年失业率将会达到19%。

"Falling like a rock," says La Tribune of Spain's economy.

  《论坛报》描述西班牙经济时这样说道,“经济衰退犹如巨石坠落”。

Meanwhile, "India set for slowest growth in six years," says the FT .
   
  与此同时,《金融时报》的报道说,“印度经历了近六年里最小的经济增幅”。

"Austria warns of dangers in potential Ukraine 'catastrophe,'" continues the gloom and doom.

  在持续出现经济萧条和国内恐慌后,“澳大利亚政府警告将会出现乌克兰那样的‘经济风暴’”。

And in Japan:
"Deflation fears grow as wholesales prices fall."
"Pioneer lays off 10,000 workers..."

  在日本国内:
  “民众对通货紧缩的恐惧随着零售批发商品价格一落千丈而与日俱增。”
  “首批裁员的公司企业已经裁员10000人...”

World trade is collapsing. Now everyone is complaining about 'protectionism.' The next G7 meeting has protectionism - and how to avoid it - at the top of the agenda. But protectionism is just the reaction, not the cause. Trade is collapsing because people have become reluctant to spend, invest or lend anywhere - especially, far from home.

  世界贸易已遭受重创,正面临绝境。如今所有人都在埋怨“贸易保护主义”。下一次G7议会已经将讨论贸易保护主义及其解决方案列入会议首要议程。但贸易保护主义并不是经济萧条的起因,而仅仅是其带来的反应。世界贸易陷入绝境,是由于人们开始变得不愿花钱消费,投资或借贷-尤其是不愿在离家很远的地方花钱。

The guy who invented the shipping container industry works in the office above us, here in the "Sea Container Building" in London. You know, the building with the gold balls on the roof. He's an American from Kentucky who later got into the railroad business and went broke. But after WWII he figured out that shipping could be made much more efficient by putting goods into metal containers and using big cranes to stack them on ships. Thanks to his innovation, globalized trade got a huge boost.

  创立集装箱船运业的那个人就在我们办公室楼上办公。就是那座在顶上有一个金色大球的大厦,伦敦海洋储运大厦( Sea Container Building )。 他是一个来自肯塔基州的美国人,后来搞过铁路行当,不过破产了。二战以后,他预计将货物装载入大型集装箱再通过大型起重机将货物运入货轮, 通过货轮来进行货物运输效率更高。 由于他对运输业的革新,全球化贸易有了一个长足的进步。

But now, for the first time in its 53-year history, container traffic is going down. In the last four months, not a single new container vessel has been ordered. China - the planet's largest factory - is making, selling and shipping less stuff to the rest of the world. Exports to the United States are down 10% year on year; exports to Europe are down 17%.

  但如今,在集装箱船运业53年的历史上,首次出现了亏损。在过去四个月里,该公司没有收到一份制造新集装箱货轮的订单。世界上最大的船舶制造国中国已经向世界其他国家减少了货轮的生产量和销售量,货物运输量也下降了。对美国的出口量已经较去年下降了10%,欧洲方面则下降了17%。

In the United States itself: "CEOs see grim economic outlook..."
  
  在美国国内:“公司总裁们已经看到了不甚乐观不再景气的经济前景...”

"Biggest GDP drop since '46..."

  “自1946年以来的最大GDP跌幅...”

"Toll Bros. first quarter revenue down 51%...no end in sight to real estate trouble..."

  “托尔兄弟公司(Toll Bros.)第一季度财政收入下跌51%...放眼望去,房地产行业面临的困境仍没有尽头...”

"Caterpillar to cut 2000 jobs..."

  “卡特比勒公司削减2000个工作岗位...”

The headlines are nearly unanimous: it's deflation that menaces the world, not inflation. But Sparky Benarnke...and Barack "House-o-fire" Obama...are on the case. They're not going to rest until they get that darned conflagration going.

  新闻头条的内容基本上都差不多:现在困扰世界的不是通货膨胀而是通货紧缩。充满干劲的美联储主席伯南克先生和新官上任三把火的巴拉克.奥巴马总统难辞其咎。他们要一直加紧工作直到这场大火燃烧起来才能有喘息的机会。

Eventually, they'll get a small flame started... And then, watch out...it could burn, baby, burn... like a brush fire in Australia. And that's when the Chinese will really hate us.

  终于,他们点着了一个小火苗...然后,看着吧...火会烧起来的...伙计,烧起来了...就像澳大利亚的丛林大火那样。那时,中国人就会对我们怒眼向视了。

*** "Fears of a return to the 1930s are too pessimistic," writes David Bowers in the FT.

  “害怕回到上世纪30年代那样的经济大萧条时期的想法未免也太过于悲观了”,David Bowers在《金融时报》里这样写道。

Au contraire, they seem too optimistic to us.

  相反的,这些害怕的情绪似乎对我们更有利。

In the '30s, the feds still had a residual respect for law and order. So did the public. When the Roosevelt administration went about taking control of the economy, it had to fight against the courts the whole way. As many as 1,600 injunctions were issued to prevent the feds from carrying out their grandiose plan. When these cases got to the Supreme Court, the court threw out key parts of Roosevelt's program as unconstitutional. The U.S.Constitution was meant to limit was government could do. Apart from the express undertakings described in the document, all other things were supposed to be left to the states and to individual citizens. Nowhere in the U.S. Constitution was there any mention of an "industrial recovery" program, for example. So the Supremes threw it out.

  在上世纪30年代,美国联邦政府当时对法律和条款(最高法院)还是会给予尊重的,公众也是如此。当罗斯福政府打算着手控制经济时(实施宏观调控),他们必须处处都要和法院做抗衡。当时,法院签署了1600多条禁令来阻止联邦政府实施其宏伟的经济计划。当这些纠纷案件最终递交最高法院审理时,最高法院认为罗斯福政府的经济计划中最核心部分违反了宪法的规定。美国宪法总是有意限制政府的行为。宪法除了明确描述纳入其中的法律条款外,剩下其他的事宜就全部交给国家和公民个人来处理了。例如在宪法里就只字未提有关“工业援救”的项目。因此根据宪法,最高法院就否决了政府的提议。

Then, Roosevelt attacked the court itself. He argued that "nine old men" should not be allowed to stop progress. He tried to pack the court with more justices ready to do his bidding. This was too much for Congress to swallow; even his vice president was against it. The amendment to increase the number of Supreme Court justices failed.

  然后,罗斯福就法院的判决提出质疑。他认为那“九个老家伙”(应该是指最高法官吧)不应该阻止经济计划的实施。他开始准备向最高法院安排更多的法官,为自己的“翻盘计划”着手准备。但这已经超出国会的人数限定了,甚至副总统都反对罗斯福的计划。为最高法院增加法官的修改议案就这样以失败告终。

But then, the old men themselves failed. They died. And as their mortal envelopes got packed in the dirt, new justices were appointed - such as Felix Frankfurter and William O. Douglas - who were willing to go along.

  但是接下来,这些“老家伙”却输给罗斯福总统了。他们一一辞世。就在这些老法官长眠地下之时,新任命的法官走马上任了-包括Felix Frankfurter 和 William O. Douglas-这些新上任的法官最终站在了罗斯福总统这一边。

This time there is practically no resistance. President Obama enjoys support, both wide and deep. The public is behind him. Congress is on his side. And the courts have long since given up trying to limit the power of the federal government.

  而现在,奥巴马总统面前实际上并没有阻碍。奥巴马总统得到了最为深远全面的支持。公众都支持他。国会也站在他这边。法院也不再想原来那样试图限制联邦政府的权力了。

Everyone wants something for nothing. And everyone believes he can get it from the feds. As a result, we're looking at trillion dollar deficits - as far as the eye can see.

  所有人都想以零投入换取高产出。所有美国人都相信自己能从联邦政府那里获利。因此,我们都死死盯着那一万亿的赤字-丝毫不肯有半点走神。

That's not all, of course. Back in the '30s, the dollar was still linked to gold. The price was set by law and dollar holders were free to convert their dollars into gold at the statutory price.

  当然,这还没完。回顾上世纪30年代,那时美元还是和黄金价格相关联的。黄金价格由相关法律限定,美元持有人可以按法定价格用美元自由兑换黄金。

In order to devalue the dollar, the Roosevelt administration had to call in the nation's gold - making it illegal for private citizens to hold the yellow metal - and then revalue gold upwards. In a stroke of a pen, debts denominated in dollars were clipped 60%.
  
  为了使美元贬值,罗斯福政府召见国家黄金管理机构,宣布个人持有黄金为非法行为,接着就重新评估黄金价格的上涨空间。在总统先生用笔签署法案后,美元就贬值了近60%。

Now, there's no need even for the pen. Dollars float on a sea of debt...with no golden anchor to windward. All it takes is a whoosh of inflationary breeze and the buck is off! No need for calling in gold. No need for legislation. In a few days, the value of the dollar could be cut in half...or by 75%...or more.

现在,甚至都不用签署什么法案了。在全球经济环境中,没有了船锚黄金价格的牵制,美元价格这一叶扁舟在风云莫测的债权关系之海中上下浮动。只需要一阵通货膨胀的微风吹过,美元升职的船帆就折戟汪洋中了。不需要召见黄金管理机构,也不需要任何法律程序。就在几天之内,美元价格就会一落千丈,贬值近半...或者...贬值四分之三...甚至更多。

And who's going to protest? The Chinese? Yes...but they don't vote in U.S. elections.

  那么现在,有谁要提出抗议的?中国人?不错,就是中国人...不过他们没有给美国总统选举投过票。

Although the dollar is no longer bound to gold, smart investors still see it as the ultimate store of wealth...and so should you. Hedge your investments against the imminent demise of the dollar by holding onto some gold. It's easier than you think.

尽管美元价格已经不再和黄金价格挂钩了,一些有远见的投资者仍然把黄金看做是财富的最终归属地...当然,您也可以这样认为。为了避免投资过程中可预见的美元贬值所带来的风险,您不妨购入并持有一些黄金。这种避免风险的方法比您想象的要简单的多。
发表于 2009-2-21 23:53 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-2-22 00:25 | 显示全部楼层
我们因巨量美元而强大,也因巨量美元而软弱,
这是个哈姆雷特式难题。
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发表于 2009-2-25 14:26 | 显示全部楼层
翻的很好哦!加油~~ O(∩_∩)O
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发表于 2009-2-25 14:38 | 显示全部楼层
"Once you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion ...we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do."
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这句话说得怪蠢的,尤其是那种嗔怪的口气让人反胃。把纳税人的钱买巨额美国国债,现在面临贬值,你怎么能说无能为力呢?你以为你在和美国打情骂俏吗?至少也应该用经济上的损失来换取一些政治上的好处,即使无能为力,态度上的强硬还是应该做出的,怎么能马上示弱服软呢。

中国官员素质有待提高,真让人恨呀~~~~
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