金融时报：中国难以承受的战争迷雾

波默默妞

【原文标题】

A fog of war that China can ill afford

【中文标题】中国难以承受的战争迷雾
【原文链接】http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f17ff0c-09bb-11de-add8-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
【翻译】波默默妞
【声明】本译文仅供Anti-CNN使用，转载需注明出处及本文链接
【译文】
    孙子说，一个将军应该“能愚士卒之耳目”来保守秘密。中国的官员们这周使用了《孙子兵法》里的招数：温家宝总理在全国人大会议上发表的讲话并没有包含一丝半点有关刺激计划的内容，而之前有消息说他将会宣布刺激计划，这样，国际金融市场仍然被神秘化。这样，不管是对于中国的对抗危机的政策还是他（指中国政府——译者注）沟通方法来说，都很令人遗憾。

    在这个（全球经济的）低迷时期，中国的处境相比较起来令人羡慕。很多国家都面临两难抉择——一方面他们目前得维持赤字开支；另一方面他们得为将来省下更多钱。对中国来说，目前正确的政策就是用扩大内需来补偿出口的损失，这个政策从长远来看也很合理：使国内的消费在全国总产值中永远占较大比例。这是一个少见的“奢侈性”的政策，它不但对中国人民有好处，而且当中国消费者强大起来后，会通过增加进口额对世界上其它国家也会产生积极效应。

    那么中国还在等什么呢？手里攥着2万亿美元的外汇储备——多年贸易顺差的积累——用公共赤字刺激内需一点儿也不难。政府已经实施了一些有用的措施。针对农村居民进行的一项鼓励人们购买家用电器的补贴项目。而且政府也成功的通过国有银行增加了国内贷款数额。

    但是其它一些行动就不是那么积极了。中国政府去年宣布了4万亿人民的投资计划，但是现在还不清楚这个计划是否能够涵盖在任何情况下所发生的费用。一个更可靠的刺激方案是政府明年计划实施的财政赤字，温总理说这个财政赤字会占到中国经济的3%。这确实很棒——但是要想在出口比上年降低17.5%的情况下达到温总理所说2009年（中国经济）增长8%的目标这个计划还远远不够。

    一个令人信服的中国经济刺激计划是使中国以及世界范围内的经济活动复苏的唯一及最有希望的机会。所以，温总理将会宣布一个振兴计划的预期消息可以使亚洲股市出现强势反弹。市场的表现反应出中国领导人所面临的更深层次的挑战。他们明白他们必须采取行动来减缓全球经济下滑，而且的确他们比其他任何国家都更有能力去做这件事。但是他们还没有领悟到那鼓舞人心的事实，以及市场信心是那行动的一个重要部分。

    储户们害怕向外借钱，消费者担心花钱，到处都在藏钱。度过这场危机需要消除那些不确定性。政府的计划因此必须透明，果断，但是中国共产党在透明度方面仍然有待完善（并不只是经济方面）。

    中国政府的不透明给自己引起麻烦的时代应经一去不复返了。现在整个世界都需要中国把孙子的一些经验放在一边了。

【原文】
A general, said Sun Tzu, “must be able to mystify his officers and men by false reports and appearances” to ensure secrecy. Chinese officials applied their Art of War this week: global financial markets were left mystified when Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s speech to the National People’s Congress contained no sign whatsoever of the stimulus package it had been suggested he would announce. That was unfortunate, both for what it says about China’s anti-crisis policies and about its approach to communication.
In this downturn, China is relatively enviably placed. Many other countries face the paradox of having to sustain deficit spending right now but save more over time. For China, the right policy today – compensating for lost exports by boosting domestic spending – is also a sound policy for tomorrow: moving towards a permanently higher share for consumption in national output. That is a rare luxury, which will serve not only the Chinese people. As they become bigger consumers, they will also benefit the rest of the world through increased imports.
So what is China waiting for? With some $2,000bn in reserves – the result of years of accumulated trade surpluses – it has no difficulty financing public deficits to boost domestic demand. The government has already taken some useful steps. It has put in place a subsidy programme for rural residents that encourages them to buy household appliances and consumer electronics. It has also successfully expanded domestic lending through its state-owned banks.


But other actions have been half-hearted. A Rmb4,000bn investment plan was announced last year, but it is not clear that it contains much spending above what would in any case have taken place. A more reliable measurement of stimulus is the budget deficit the government plans to run next year, which Mr Wen said would be 3 per cent of China’s economy. That is something – but it seems too unambitious to achieve Mr Wen’s stated goal of 8 per cent growth in 2009 when exports are falling by 17.5 per cent year-on-year.

A convincing stimulus package from Beijing is the single most promising opportunity to reinvigorate economic activity in China and around the world. This was illustrated by the sharp bounce Asian markets enjoyed from expectations that Mr Wen would announce such a package. The market reaction revealed the deeper challenge confronting China’s leaders. They understand that they must act to slow the global downturn – and indeed that they have more power than anyone else to do so. But they have not yet grasped that inspiring certainty and market confidence is an important part of that task.

Cash is being hoarded everywhere by savers too afraid to lend and consumers too afraid to spend. Ending the crisis requires lifting their uncertainty. Governments’ plans must therefore be clear and resolute – but clarity is something China’s Communist party still struggles with (not just in economics).

The time has passed when China’s opacity mostly caused trouble for itself. Today the whole world needs it to put some of Sun Tzu’s lessons aside.

avava

什么“战争迷雾”？

saml00l

因为中国主要的对手是商人...像一群牛...放牧技术稍有差错...牛群会因为失去目标而四周到处乱撞...最终伤及中国...消费救中国也救全世界,中国难以像过去一样,肩上重任要为地球多做一些...可是如何让中国人民币像美元一样有价值还需要各强国的行动[支持],手中的人民币以乘以三十倍以上来使用,用时间换取得发展,且过程可以取其利舍其害才是思考的重点