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本帖最后由 酸枣树310 于 2009-4-3 17:00 编辑
【原文标题】 China as a Partner, Not as a Threat
【中文标题】 中国是伙伴，不是威胁
【文章来源】 http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/375651.htm
【译 者】 xiongshu
【译 文】
China's growing economic and military might is changing the balance of power between Moscow and Beijing. This has caused anxiety among various groups of people in Russia -- especially those living in geographic proximity to the Celestial Empire -- and some have been raising the alarm of a Chinese threat.
中国飞速发展的经济实力和军事力量正在改变中俄两国之间的平衡。这一平衡的改变使得许多俄国人感到忧虑不堪（特别是那些居住地与中国接壤的人），有些人还发出警告，警惕来自中国的威胁。
But is that threat real? If the main concern is only that China is a very large, rapidly developing country, then Beijing should also be in constant fear of Russia -- another huge and powerful country. Similarly, European countries would have cause to fear their largest neighbors, France and Germany, and by the same logic those two should fear each other. However, Europeans have learned to live in harmony without mutual fears or animosities. Can Russia hope to have a similar relationship with China and not view its eastern neighbor as a threat?
但是，这样的威胁真的存在吗？如果仅仅是因为中国是个飞速发展的泱泱大国，那中国人也会对俄罗斯 - 另一个幅员辽阔的强国 - 抱有同等的忧虑。同样，欧洲诸国也会对他们最大的邻国法国及德国感到担心，按照同样的思路，这两个国家也会对其邻国忧心忡忡。然而，欧洲各国已经能够和谐共处而不是相互提防。俄罗斯想和中国发展如此的睦邻友好关系而不是把这个位居东方的邻国看作是对自身的威胁，是这样吗？
To answer that question, let's begin by taking a look at Beijing's public statements. In their official documents and speeches, Chinese leaders constantly speak of the need to strengthen friendship and cooperation with the outside world and to achieve a multipolar balance of powers in international relations based on peaceful coexistence. Beijing emphasizes that it has no intention of practicing hegemony or expansionism, either now or in the future. Experience has shown that their words are generally backed up by deeds. China has invariably strived to develop military, political, economic and humanitarian ties with Russia. China does not build up its military presence near Russia's borders, does not join any anti-Russian coalitions, helps Russia to expand its influence in the Asian-Pacific region, supports Moscow's opposition to NATO expansion, founded the Shanghai Cooperation Organization together with Russia and actively cooperates with Russia at the United Nations.
要想回答这一问题，让我们先看一看中国政府的表态吧。中国领导人在其官方文件及讲话中不断对外表示，愿意同外界加深友谊，加强合作，在和平共处的基础上建设国际关系的多极化平衡。中国政府强调，自己无意实行霸权主义，也不会采取对外扩张政策，现在不会，将来也不会。过往的经验告诉我们，中国政府向来都是言行一致的。中国一直致力于和俄罗斯发展军事、政治、经济及人道主义等方面的合作。中国没有在俄罗斯边境上布置军事力量，也没有与任何反俄联盟结盟，并且协助俄方在亚太地区扩大其影响。中方支持俄方反对北约扩张，并和俄方一道建立上海合作组织，在联合国事务上也和俄方展开积极合作。
Behind all of these actions lies a real and significant interest on the part of China for a strategic, long-term and close partnership with Russia. Let's begin with the fact that Beijing does not accept the current unipolar world order, seeks a multipolar structure in international relations and requires Russia's aid in establishing it. China faces other problems in the international arena. These include tensions with Japan, India and Southeast Asian countries, as well as an ongoing problem with Taiwan. Beijing must also confront serious domestic challenges: economic, social, ethnic, ideological, ecological and so on. Under such difficult conditions, it is to China's clear advantage to maintain peaceful relations with Russia to the north, with which it shares a 4,000-kilometer border.
中方开展这些行动，有其重要的现实利益所在：这些行动旨在保持与俄方长期紧密的战略性伙伴关系。先来看看目前的局势：中国拒绝接受现有的单极化国际秩序，努力建设一个国际关系多极化框架，并寻求俄方的帮助来实现这一目标。中国在国际间地区也面临其他一些问题：包括和日本，印度及东南亚一些国家的紧张局势，还有尚未解决的台湾问题。在中国国内，政府也面临一系列问题：经济问题、社会问题、民族问题、思政工作问题、生态问题等等。在如此困难重重的局面下，和北部有4000公里长的边境线接壤的俄罗斯保持和平关系对中国来说是有百益而无一害的。
One more factor unites Russia and China: Their economies complement each other. Over the long term, China will require increasing quantities of energy resources from Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as our technologies -- especially military. For its part, Russia has an interest in exporting energy resources to China, and through China, to other countries of the Asian-Pacific region. Russia also has an interest in buying consumer goods manufactured in China and in hiring Chinese laborers.
另一个更重要的因素将中俄两国紧密联系在一起：双方在经济上彼此支持。从长远角度看来，中国对俄罗斯西伯利亚地区及远东地区的能源需求与日俱增，对俄方制造技术（尤其是军工技术）的需要也是有增无减。对俄方而言，向中方出口能源以及通过中国向亚太地区其他国家输送能源是有很高的利润的。同时购买中国制造的消费品及雇佣中国劳工对俄方而言也是有利的。
Several negative factors also influence -- or could influence -- Russian-Chinese relations. The main irritant is the dramatic increase in the number of Chinese citizens living in the Russian Far East. This has prompted fears of demographic expansion by Russia's giant neighbor.
还有几个消极因素影响着或将要影响中俄关系。其中影响最大的要算在俄罗斯远东地区生活的中国人数量急剧上升。由俄罗斯的近邻中国带来的人口激增给俄方造成了恐慌。
How should Russia behave in these circumstances? Of course, Moscow could focus its attention on the problems and try to anticipate China's next move. However, predicting the future is extremely difficult if not impossible. At the beginning of the 20th century, some academics and politicians predicted that China would constitute Russia's greatest threat. In fact, the enemy ended up coming from the West, and Russia fought two world wars on its western flank. Russia could continue trying to guess the future, but it will never succeed. And in the process of trying, it would provoke tensions that are far from necessary. By exaggerating the notion of a Chinese threat, Russia will only irritate the Chinese, get itself all worked up and ultimately spoil relations.
在这样的环境下，俄方将采取何种行动呢？当然，俄方应该关注这些问题，并预测中方的下一步动向。然而，即使条件允许，预测未来也是极其困难的。在20世纪初，一些学者和政客预计中国会成为俄罗斯的心腹之患。但事实却是，威胁最终来自西方。俄国在自己位于欧洲的国土上打了两场世界大战。俄罗斯可以一直试着去预测未来，但预测永远不会和事实相符。而且在相互揣测时，会许多造成毫无必要的紧张局面。如果过多的提及中国威胁论，俄罗斯只会激怒中国，把自己逼上绝路，最终对两国关系造成无法挽回的破坏。
Russian politicians should instead focus their efforts on whatever will bring Russia and China closer together and enable them to continue cooperating. The main basis for such cooperation is the complementary nature of their economies. The proper approach is to cooperate with China -- in fact, to work with Korea, Japan, Southeast Asian countries and with all states that want to participate -- in developing the productive power of Siberia and the Far East. What would that give Russia? First, interested foreign powers would be forced to compete with one another, making it impossible for any one of them to achieve hegemony. Second, Russians will migrate toward the new jobs and opportunities, strengthening the Far East. And even if at some later date problems do arise between Russia and China, it will be easier for Russia to defend those regions because they will have become stronger, more developed and more densely populated by Russians.
因此，俄方的政客们更应该关注如何能将中俄双方关系变得更为紧密，促进双方进一步合作。双方经济彼此相辅相成的本质是开展合作的重要依据。与中国开展合作 - 事实上，与韩国、日本、东南亚各国及所有有意向参与合作的国家开展双边协作 - 是提高西伯利亚地区及远东地区生产力的可行途径。通过此途径能给俄罗斯带来哪些好处呢？首先，有意向参与合作的国家会不得不与各个对手进行竞争，这样相互牵制就不可能让任何一行成为霸主。其次，俄国人会向远东地区迁移，以期寻求新的工作和发展机遇，并因此提升该地区的经济水平。即使未来某个时候中俄两国之间真的出现了摩擦，随着这些地区经济的进一步发展及俄国人口数量的上升，俄方也能更为自如得保护这些与中国接壤的地区。
Another advantage to cooperation is that it will deepen our interdependence. The Chinese, Japanese and others who invest in our eastern regions or who work there will literally have a vested interest in seeing those territories prosper. Recall once again the example of Europe. France and Germany were at war over disputed territory for almost a full century. Now the Franco-German border has become only a virtual construct, with people moving across it in both directions without even noticing that it exists.
合作的另一个好处，就是能够加深各国间彼此依赖。不管是中国人、日本人还是其他国家到俄罗斯远东地区投资或工作的人，都能亲眼看到并亲身感受到该地区的繁荣。让我们再一次回顾欧洲各国合作这个例子。法国和德国曾一度为了存在争议的国土打了进一个世纪的仗。如今法德边境仅仅是一个地理意义上的边界而已，两国人民往来于此，都没有感受到边界的存在。
Russia's main approach to China should be characterized by close bilateral cooperation and recognition of our mutually complementary economies. Our common geopolitical interests should also play a role. Geopolitical cooperation with Beijing is worthwhile, but the question is just how far it should go. I think that Russia should maintain the customary relations with China -- while cooperating with the United States and the West -- in order to press Washington and its allies to move toward a multipolar world in which the various powers would not compete with each other, as has been the case in the past, but would cooperate. A foundation already exists to facilitate that type of cooperation -- the United Nations, regional multinational organizations and international law.
俄罗斯与中国开展合作的最主要途径就是加强双边合作，并意识到两国经济彼此互补相辅相成。由于地理上的邻近而为两国带来的政治利益也应该对开展合作起一定作用。与邻国中国开展地缘政治合作是值得的，只是俄方要考虑合作深入的程度。我认为俄方应该与中方保持现有的两国关系，同时也开展与欧美的合作，以此使美国及其盟友向多极化世界方向发展，在多极化世界中，各国不再像原来一样彼此竞争，而是相互合作。现在已经有开展这种合作的基础了：联合国、地区多国组织及国际法。
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