【09.05.29 NPR】全球经济衰退中审视中国的作用

天健地坤

【中文标题】全球经济衰退中审视中国的作用

【原文标题】Weighing China's Role In The Global Recession
【登载媒体】美国全国公共广播电台（NPR）

【来源地址】http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104690511

【译者】天健地坤

【翻译方式】人工

【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。

【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-170415-1-1.html

【译文】

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner heads for China for talks with officials there early next week. In January, Geithner angered the Chinese government by accusing China of manipulating its currency and undermining free trade. China shot back, blaming the U.S. for sparking the financial crisis.

财政部长盖特纳下周初将赴中国与相关官员会谈。今年1月，盖特纳指责中国政府操纵人民币汇率，并破坏了自由贸易，从而激怒了中国政府。中国则作出反击，指责美国是此次金融危机的始作俑者。

Certainly, the U.S. bears a large share of the blame for the meltdown, but many economists believe China's currency policy paved the way for the worldwide crisis.

当然，美国对全球经济的崩溃负有很大一部分责任，但许多经济学家也认为中国的货币政策为全球危机铺平了道路。

"Here's the short argument that China is partly to blame for the crisis: In its rush to industrialize, China ran up huge trade surpluses. It saved too much of the money it made selling its products. Then, it lent too much of that money to America, says Peter Morici, an economics professor at the University of Maryland.

马里兰大学的经济学教授彼得·莫里奇指出，中国也应该为此次危机承担部分责任。简单来说，中国在急于实现工业化过程中，积累了巨额贸易顺差。而中国过多储蓄了其销售产品所获得的贸易顺差。然后，把资金过多地借给了美国。

"They accumulated dollars and they invested those dollars in the New York bond market," he says. "That made it inexpensive for banks to lend us money through our homes on mortgages and second mortgages and to loan us money on credit cards and to buy cars."

“他们积累了美元并将其投资到纽约债券市场， ”他说，“这使得银行得以将廉价的资金通过房屋抵押贷款，第二套房屋抵押贷款，信用卡借贷，汽车贷款等途径贷给了美国民众。”

China, along with some other Asian nations and oil producers, flooded the U.S. financial markets with so much excess cash that it drove interest rates down, providing an irresistible temptation for Americans to take on more debt, Morici says.

莫里奇说，中国及一些其他亚洲国家和石油生产国使得美国金融市场泛滥着大量的过剩现金，这驱使利率下降，提供了美国人一种不可抗拒的诱惑，从而借取了更多的债务。

"And it meant that the Federal Reserve couldn't pull in the mortgage frenzy when it wanted to," he says. "There was not much the Fed could do. It raised short-term rates, but long-term rates didn't go up with them. Mortgage rates didn't go up. And the terms got easier and easier and people borrowed more and more."

“这意味着当美联储希望控制抵押贷款的狂潮时，事与愿违。 ”他说， “美联储能做的并不多。它提高了短期利率，但长期利率并没有随之升高。抵押贷款利率也没有上升。而贷款条件却愈来愈宽松，人们贷款愈来愈多。”

Economist and China expert Nicholas Lardy agrees that Chinese money provided the fuel for the financial crisis.


经济学家及中国专家尼古拉斯·拉迪认为，中国来的资金助长了金融危机。

"The Chinese gave us the rope, but we didn't have to hang ourselves," he says. "If we had had tougher regulation, the inflow of capital from China would not have led to the crisis that emerged over the last year or so."


“中国为我们提供了救生索，但我们并不应该用它来吊死自己， ”他说，“如果我们有更严厉的监管，中国流入的资本也不会导致从去年开始显现的危机。 ”

Lardy says the lack of regulation allowed U.S. investment firms to develop riskier financial products. And they did so with abandon as they tried to boost profits in the low interest rate environment created by the flood of cash from China.

拉迪说，监管机制的缺乏让美国投资公司开发出更具风险的金融产品。 他们肆意妄为，试图在由中国来的现金洪流所造成的低利率环境中提高利润。

So why did China build up such large and destabilizing surpluses? Lardy and Morici disagree on China's motives. Morici thinks China made a deliberate decision to build its economy and its global power through exports.

那么为什么中国要累积这样庞大和不利于稳定的盈余呢？拉迪和莫里奇在分析中国的动机时意见相左。莫里奇认为，中国的决定是经过深思熟虑的，为的是通过出口发展其经济和壮大中国在全球的势力。

"Quite simply, China wants to have a very large trade surplus with the United States as a development tool to employ [people from rural China] in the cities making things to sell here," Morici says. "So what it does is, it keeps its currency cheap."

“其实很简单，中国希望利用跟美国巨大的贸易顺差作为发展工具，来促使农民工进入城市，生产商品，并在美国销售。”莫里奇说，“所以他们做的就是使人民币汇率处于低水平。”

But Lardy, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says China sort of stumbled into the situation.

但拉迪，这位彼得森国际经济研究所的研究员说，中国也是无意地进入了目前的状况。

Back in the 1990s, China decided to peg its currency to the dollar, a move that was viewed as positive back then. For a while it worked fine. The dollar appreciated and so did China's currency, the yuan. That meant Chinese exports were more expensive. So, despite its increasing productivity, China's trade surplus was manageable.

早在20世纪90年代，中国决定将其货币钉住美元，此举在当时被看作是积极的。在一段时间里这样的做法很有效。美元升值，人民币也随之升值。这意味着中国的出口商品也更加昂贵。因此，尽管中国的生产力有所提高，中国的贸易顺差还是在可掌控范围之内的。

But early in this decade, the dollar began to fall, and with its currency still pegged to the dollar, China's exports became cheaper. China sold mountains of goods, and its trade surplus soared, Lardy says.

但是到本世纪初，美元开始下跌，人民币仍然盯住美元，这样中国的出口商品变得更为便宜。中国出售了大量的商品，使得贸易盈余猛增。

"Their goods became massively more competitive on international markets and they developed large trade surpluses without any precedent in recorded history," he says.

“他们的产品在国际市场上变得极具竞争力，他们积累了史无前例的巨额贸易盈余。”

Lardy says some Chinese leaders want a more balanced economy. But he says others, with economic interests in export production, have gotten addicted to the huge profits that exports generate. They're resisting the calls from the U.S. government and others to allow the value of the yuan to rise.

拉迪说，一些中国领导人希望有一个更趋平衡的经济。但是某些在出口生产中的既得利益者，沉溺出口所带来的巨额利润。他们抵制美国政府和其他方面希望使人民币汇率上升的呼吁。

Geithner will raise the issue during his talks next week, but Lardy says that with China holding $1.5 trillion in U.S. debt, the U.S. doesn't have a lot of leverage. Just last month, the Treasury blinked when it declined to officially call out China for manipulating its currency.

盖特纳在下周的会谈中将谈及这个问题，但拉迪说，中国有1.5万亿美元的美国债券在手，美国并没有什么底气。就在上个月，美国财政部先行退让，拒绝指责中国操纵人民币汇率。

"Certainly one of the reasons they probably didn't raise it to that threshold is the very commonsense idea that maybe you shouldn't pick a fight with your banker," Lardy says. "If you need to borrow a lot of money from somebody, you have to treat them, perhaps, with greater deference than you would if you didn't have that dependency."

“他们不提出指控的主要原因之一，也就是他们知道不该跟自己的“银行”发生争执，这也是常识，”拉迪说。“如果你需要向某人借大量的资金，你也许更应该额外地礼待他们。”

Morici argues it's the other way around. The fact that China has lent the U.S. so much money actually gives the U.S. leverage. That's because China needs a strong U.S. economy if it wants to be paid back in full.

莫里奇则认为其实这正好相反。事实上，中国已经借给了美国这么多钱，正好增强了美国的谈判底气。这是因为中国如果想美国全额还款，它需要一个强大的美国经济。

And, of course, China is still dependent on the U.S. consumer. A Treasury official says Geithner will urge China to seek more balanced growth by boosting domestic consumption and depending less on exports.

还有，中国仍然依赖于美国消费者。财政部官员说，盖特纳将敦促中国提高国内消费和减少对出口的依赖来寻求更为平衡的增长。

天健地坤

这篇文章后面的读者评论没有一个是赞成那位马里兰教授的说法的。看了美国民众头脑还算清楚，只是一些叫兽们喜欢哗众取宠而已。

天健地坤

2009年5月29日 5:42:49 robert scheppy (scheppy) wrote:

Americans might try managing their own money better, as b both the government and people seem addicted to debt..

美国人应该尝试更好地管理自己的财政，因为美国政府和人民都似乎借钱借上了瘾。

2009年5月29日 6:44:13 Shirley Freeman (homesafe) wrote:

The view has been attributed to Prof. Morici that the U.S. and Europe are in economic trouble now because both import more than they export. When imports consistently exceed exports, eventually you have to begin borrowing to pay for the exports, and borrow, and borrow....That view rings true. But it's too big a stretch to blame China for the behavior of Barney, Dodd, and others in blocking efforts to trim the excesses of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past decade, along with the out-of-control speculation that caused the excesses. No, our own shortsightedness got us into this. And with a White House that refuses to consider what to do if (and when?) inflation from their excess dollar-printing rears its very ugly head (in a year or two?)...the current Administration will continue the mistake of shortsighted strategies for current benefit...and dig our economy into an even deeper hole. Obama claims to be able to do several things at once. Shouldn't one of those things be working on a strategy to minimize inflation when/if it begins? If you are told there is a wrecking ball swinging over your economy, shouldn't you at least look up?

莫里奇教授提出的观点，指出目前美国和欧洲陷于经济危机是因为两者的进口大于出口。当进口长期超过出口时，只能开始通过借贷来支付进口产品，然后再借，再借。。。这看起来正确，但是， Barney，Dodd和其他一些人阻挠尝试减少房利美和房贷美在过去十年里的过度放贷，和由于完全失控的投机的努力，如果将这也也归咎于中国，就有点说不过去了。

不，这完全是我们的短视让我们陷入泥潭。目前，白宫也拒绝考虑如何应对大量印刷钞票而将导致的一两年后的可怕的通胀。现任政府也还将为了短期利益而继续实施短视的错误政策，这将会把我们的经济推向更深的困境。奥巴马声称他的政策可以同时解决好几个问题。但是，这些政策里不应该有一项来减少极有可能来临的通胀吗？如果你明知道有一个大铁球悬在我们经济之上摇摆着，难道不应该至少抬头看看吗？

2009年5月29日 8:48:13 Only Me (onlyme) wrote:

China has one less consumer. I have been purchasing frozen veggies at Whole Foods for quite a while, but the recent food labeling laws that put country of origin on the packaging showed me that the supposedly organic vegetables I have been eating are coming from China.

Why can we not growing our own vegetables? Whatever the answer is, I am no longer buying frozen "organic" vegetables from Whole Foods, until Whole Foods stops buying vegetables from China. I prefer to support our own economy and will look for veggies from somewhere/anywhere within the U.S.

中国又少了一个消费者。我一直在Whole Foods购买冷冻蔬菜，新的商品标识规定要注明原产地，我才发现一直吃的有机蔬菜来自中国。

为什么我们不能种植自己的蔬菜？不管什么原因，在Whole Foods停止从中国进口蔬菜之前，我将不再在Whole Foods购买那些“有机”冷冻蔬菜了。我支持我们自己的经济，我会去找我自己种植的蔬菜来买。

2009年5月29日 8:51:49 G B (GB_) wrote:

Right, it's China's fault that we don't have a problem buying goods manufactured with slave labor as long as their cheap. Or that we racked up debt. Or that we use six times the world average of resources to move our overweight arses around.

No obviously it's China's fault. We're the good guys.

就是，这全怪中国。只要价格便宜，我们对购买受奴役劳工生产的产品一点问题都没有，又或者，我们债务越来越多，又或者，我们使用六倍于全球人均水平的能源消耗来来去去地移动我们的肥硕的身躯（译者：这位用的是反语，说的是美国汽车汽油消耗和安逸享乐的问题）。

不，这很显然是中国的错，我们才是好人。

2009年5月29日 9:00:10 Jeremy Anderson (wumingzi_57) wrote:

Thank you for taking the time to explain some of the mechanics of the economic relationship between the US and China.

In the time-honored tradition of NPR listeners who flood the stations to comment on the most trivial of grammatical errors, I would like to point one out in this story. The Chinese currency is called the "yu-en" not the "yu-ahn".

(audio link below)
http://www.mdbg.net/chindict/chi ... uan&wdrst=1&wdeac=1

谢谢你花时间来解释中国和美国之间的经济关系和机制。基于NPR听众愿意涌到电台来指出最琐碎的语法错误的一贯传统，我也来指出一个小错误。中国货币读作“元”，不是“鱼昂”（译者：这位仁兄真较劲，呵呵）

2009年5月29日 9:07:22 victor miller (double) wrote:

it is partley Amerca's thought because of us Americans went behond our means, if us Americans were to spend more wisely, like save money, and borrow less, than we would not have been in where we are now, I may be being insitive, but it is not right to blame our problems on china.

部分美国人这么想是因为这次危机太让人难以承受了。如果我们美国人可以更聪明的花钱，愿意储蓄，减少借贷，那么我们是不应该堕落到目前的状况的。也许我有些麻木不仁，不过把我们的问题归咎于中国，这不太对。

2009年5月29日 12:00:13 Rick Fucci (Rick44) wrote:

Very FUNNY Story.
Recap:

The two culprits are:

"The US working class"
Vs.
"The industrial engine of China"

"The US, accepted too many fish from the Chinese and "WE" forgot how to fish. And somehow this is china's fault."

If it were not so important to understand what really happened, not only to avoid this kind of economic destruction in the future, but to identify the true dysfunction and do something about it now, this would just be another FUNNY story.

I suppose it should be no surprise that NPR is channeling this fantasy for the Fed, as if it were THE NEWS.
But framing the Federal Reserve as the cavalry? Going over to talk to those pesky Chinese producers?

Ayn Rand would flip out.

I would love to see the research file for this story examined (unredacted). The WWWWW&Hows of it getting on the air. That would at least sound like NEWS.

A careful study, which IS ongoing, will show that the centralized banking system has evolved into a tower of paper power, so rife with greed and corruption that it is collapsing of its own weight. Lest we forget: Power tends to corrupt and absolute tends to...... We are doomed to live in a county with a plunging standard of living run by and for the powerful and corrupt.

这是一个很有意思的故事：
案件概述：
两名罪犯：“美国工人阶层”和“中国工业引擎”

美国从中国接受的了太多的鱼，以致我们连怎么钓鱼也都忘了。不知这么地，这也成了中国的错。

如果我们不去理解究竟发生了什么事情，这不但不能无法避免今后同样的经济崩溃，也无法认清真正的目前的机能失效在哪里然后加以医治。这样也只会另一个有趣的故事。

我觉得NPR为美联储将这个荒诞的想法当做新闻来播出并不奇怪。但是，将美联储描述成一支勇敢的骑兵，冲到中国那里跟麻烦的中国生产者谈判？ 艾茵•兰德会气得从坟墓里跳出了。

我倒是想看看这则新闻的研究材料和审查过程（未编辑过的）。然后，又怎样可以获得播出的。这才是真正的新闻。

一项严谨的调查，（正在进行中的）会解释中央集权的银行系统已经演化成一个纸做的权利高塔，充斥着贪婪和腐败，而造成因为自身的重量过重而坍塌。我们不要忘记：权利导致腐败，绝对的权利导致。。。。我们注定要生活在一个由权势和贪腐官员统治的，生活水平急剧下降的国度。

（译者：这位仁兄是一位典型的阴谋论者，目前全球普遍来说对此次经济危机的起因归咎于美国贪图享受的人民和中国工业化发展的野心。而他却提醒大家不要忘了美国金融系统的幕后老大们，正是他们一手制定的美国金融系统和银行体系，也包括监管机制。也许，这位仁兄正在参与某项研究。呵呵，很有意思。）


2009年5月29日 13:30:13 G R (12qwer345643) wrote:

Without going into too much of the complexities of the U.S-China relationship, I find it laughable that an American economics professor would dare blame China because Americans lacked the discipline and the intelligence to make sound economic decisions on a personal and national level. It is almost like a drug user blaming the 'pusher' and the manufacturers of a drug for being too good at getting a product to market thereby causing their addiction!

Typical self centered, narcissitic, blame-others- for-problems-you-caused-yourself American thinking. Just be prepared for a future where America is so indebted to China that we don't have our national autonomy any more. And that will come about because America was stupid- NOT CHINA!

先不太去探讨中美关系的复杂性，我就觉得太好笑，美国经济学教授居然敢将美国国家及其民众缺乏自律和智慧未能做出明智经济决定的原因归咎于中国。这就象是瘾君子让毒贩子和医药公司为自己的毒瘾负责。

这正是典型的自我为中心的，及其自恋的，“要求他人为自己造成的问题负责”的美国人想法。大家准备好吧，我们的未来将会是因为向中国欠债太多，以致丧失自己主权的未来。造成这样的结果，是因为我们美国人太笨，而不是中国！
  
2009年5月29日 13:37:10 A C (ack126) wrote:

Are you kidding me? The financial crisis is caused by China's cheap Yuan? I don't know what that professor is smoking in Maryland but he's got to stop! Are these the kind of people that are educating America's next generation?

If I give you a rope, will you hang yourself or can you come up with something better to do with it? If I pushed you on a cliff, will you just jump or will you try to avoid falling?

This recession is probably the best thing that has ever happened to a society like ours. We have to learn how to save, how to not live beyond our means, how to care for those in needs so if we ever become one, there's someone else there looking out for us. If we don't learn a valuable lesson out of this mess, how are we ever going to progress and how are we ever going to have a worthwhile future to live into?

Yes, blame the Chinese, blame the Indians, blame the illegal immigrants! Why don't we just write our blames and complaints into our constitution and just continue pointing fingers and dwell in the past instead of marching forward? Maybe if we convinced the world that other countries are the problems and we are not at all greedy, wasteful, and irresponsible, we'll be the economic power house again????

没开玩笑吧？金融危机是因为人民币汇率太低？我不晓得那位马里兰的教授吃错了什么药，但是他必须停止。就是这样的人在教育美国的下一代吗？

如果我给你一条绳索，你会用来吊死自己呢，还是用于别的更好的用途？如果我在悬崖边推你一把，你会借势就跳呢，还是尝试着做点什么来避免坠崖？

这次衰退也许是对我们这个社会有巨大的好处。我们必须学习如何储蓄，如何避免入不敷出，如何关心那些需要帮助的人们，这样也许哪天我们也会需要别人的帮助，就会有人伸出援手。
如果我们不去学习从这次危机里获得的珍贵教训，我们怎么能够进步，怎么能够拥有一个值得奋斗的明天呢？

是的，去责怪中国，责怪印度，责怪那些非法移民吧！我们还可以将这些责怪和抱怨写进我们的宪法，继续指责过去，但是为什么我们不能面向未来呢？难道说我们说服了全世界，这都是别的国家的错，我们美国不是贪婪，浪费和不负责任的人，这样我们就会重新成为经济动力的源泉吗？

2009年5月29日 16:34:32 Brian H (Brian_H) wrote:

Blaming China for the global recession is like blaming GM and Budweiser for drunk driving accidents.

将全球衰退归咎于中国就像是将酒后驾驶归咎于GM和百威啤酒

2009年5月30日 7:09:33 Grace Sheffield (Grace7) wrote:

Wow, that is just pitiful.
We are really in trouble if many share this view, particularly if they are the ones charged with leading us out of this mess.

* Well said AC!!

哇，太可耻了。
如果我们大多数人都这么想，尤其是那些领导我们走出泥潭的人也这么想得话，我们真的没救了。

另，AC，说得好！

2009年5月30日 18:44:22 Viny F (Vinii) wrote:

Interested article!! However, the professor extended over the board to make his case without much evidence we can point to. So far, we know excessive of liquidity was one of the causes along with lack of regulation and reckless risk taking by Mr. Wall Street. Even if over flooding USA with cheap capital was determined the main cause, China wasn't the only source. Blaming China for financial crisis? Is it too far to the right or left, may be both.

很有意思的一篇文章！但是，那位教授阐释自己观点却不能呈现出什么证据，这有些牵强。到目前我们知道，流动性过剩是导致这场危机的原因之一，还有华尔街大头们缺乏监管和盲目的承担风险也是诱因之一。即使美国金融市场廉价资本泛滥成灾被认为是最主要的原因也好，中国并不是这些资本的唯一来源。把这场金融危机归咎于中国？这也太极左或极右了吧，也许两样都有。

2009年5月31日 10:51:34 Stacie Roach (Rexxangel) wrote:

I do hope these guys remember that we need China on our side when it comes to any possible conflicts there may be with North Korea.

我希望这些人能够记得在处理跟朝鲜的冲突当中，我们还需要中国站在我们一方。

2009年5月31日 11:45:22 chris juneau (cjuneau) wrote:

ack126, I think you could quite possibly be the next leader of the republican party

AC126，我觉得你会成为共和党的下一任领导人。

吃裤子穿饭

这是个什么样的媒体啊，怎么好像读者都很理智的样子

olgacheung

这个教授可以拿绳子累死自己，当然看看是不是MADE IN CHINA~

无可就要

死乞掰咧地求中国借钱给他们,然后又厚颜无耻地指责中国借了太多钱给他们.
不从自己身上找错误的原因,一味地为自己的错误寻找借口.

rlsrls08

这是个什么样的媒体啊，怎么好像读者都很理智的样子

这个媒体是NPR，美国公关广播电台。

它是公益性质的，也就是说资金来源靠赞助和个人捐赠，比CNN等财团控制的媒体相对客观一些。

桔子咪咪

人都是自私的，犯了错总想着把错推到别人身上。

向左微倾

能让中国经济不断发展，让西方国家后退
这将是何等畅快的事
就是有人只想共进退   SB

sam712

读者更有看头~

万恶时代

谢谢楼主的翻译！

JOEYZHANG

中国人民的作用就是为全球各国政府包括我们自己的无知买单！！！可怜的中国民众，举步维艰的国情，发展呀。。。