本帖最后由 連長 于 2009-7-30 00:45 编辑
【中文标题】中国的隐形债务问题
【原文标题】China's hidden debt problem
【中文副标题】尽管增长强劲，世界第三大经济体可能比原先认为的有更深的债务。
【原文副标题】Despite robust growth, the world's third largest economy is potentially deeper in debt than originally thought.
【登载媒体】CNN
【原文链接】http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/27/news/international/china_debt.reut/index.htm
【翻译方式】人工
【译者】連長
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=184837&page=1&extra=
【译文】
July 27, 2009: 6:32 AM ET
2009年7月27日：上午06点32分 ET
BEIJING (Reuters) -- On the surface, China presents a fiscal study in contrast with the United States, keeping a remarkably low ceiling on debt even as it spends its way out of the financial crisis.
（北京讯）- 从表面上看，中国提出了一个与美国形成对比的财政研究， 即正当金融危机的时候最高限额的维持一个非常低的债务。
But when Chinese leaders meet their U.S. counterparts this week, they should pause for reflection before venting any criticism, because hidden liabilities mean China's books are uglier -- potentially much uglier -- than at first sight.
但是，当中国领导人在这个星期会见他们的美国同行的时候，他们竟然会停下来进行反思并消除之前的一切评论, 因为隐形债务意味着中国的账本比较丑--咋看之下更丑。
Thanks to successive years of fast economic growth and even faster government revenue growth, the official debt-to-GDP ratio was 17.7% at the end of last year, far lower than almost any other major economy.
幸运的是,由于连续几年快速增长的经济和增长更快的政府收入，至去年底，官方债务占其国内生产总值的比例为17.7%，几乎远远低于其他任何经济大国。
The trouble is that excludes local government borrowing, the current surge in loans backstopped by Beijing and bad assets cleared from the banking system but still floating about.
麻烦的是，现在除了地方政府的借贷和支持贷款，北京仍游离于从银行系统中清理不良资产。
When all are thrown into the pot, analysts estimate that China's debt may be closer to 60% of GDP, putting it in virtually the same league as the United States, which was at 70% at the end of 2008 before it launched its massive economic stimulus program.
分析人士估计，当把所有的东西都算上，中国的债务可能接近60 ％的国内生产总值.事实上，这几乎能和美国相媲美，在2008年底推出大规模的经济刺激计划之前,美国是70%。
To be sure, Washington is now set on a path of exploding debt that Beijing will largely avoid. The United States budgeted for a federal deficit of 12.9% of GDP this year, whereas China is aiming for just 2.9%
可以确认的是，北京将很大程度上避免华盛顿现在铺设的爆炸性债务之路. 今年美国联邦预算的赤字目标占国内生产总值的12.9 ％ ，而中国仅为2.9 ％ 。
But China's finances are deteriorating more quickly than the government expected, fueling a rise in the stock of both explicit and disguised debt that will constrict its wriggle room.
但是,中国财政状况恶化的速度比政府预期的更快,明显刺激了股价的上涨,并且变相债务也将限制其蠕动空间.
"It is serious because, one, much of it is hidden and, two, local governments are currently doubling down on their bets," said Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. "As with all fiscal deficits, it limits space for further stimulus."
渣打银行的经济学家Stephen Green在上海指出:"这很严重，因为，一，大部分是隐形的，二，地方政府正在加大他们的预算支出".“如同所有的财政赤字,将限制进一步刺激的空间".
This is probably a moot point, for now. With China's economy back on track and private-sector investment kicking in, few think Beijing will need to ramp up spending beyond its existing 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion), two-year stimulus plan. But the narrowing of options still discomfits Chinese leaders.
这可能是一个讨论点，现在,随着中国的经济回到正常轨道和私营企业踢出投资,一些人认为北京将需要加大超出其现有四万亿元（5850亿美元）的开支 ,在为期两年的刺激计划中。但是越来越少的选择仍然困扰着中国领导人。
"Our fiscal work is very grim," Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told officials last week
国务院总理温家宝上周告诉官员：“我们的财政工作十分严峻。”
Eroding finances
财政侵蚀
Government revenues declined 2.4% in the first half compared to a year earlier, well shy of the official goal of an 8% rise. Expenditures were ahead of target and set to surge in the second half on the back of infrastructure projects.
与上半年同期相比较，政府的收入下降了2.4 ％ ,低于官方目标8 ％的增长。支出瞄准目标，在下半年猛增，被用于基础设施建设及其他方面。
Tax intakes are, of course, closely tied to economic activity, so China's upturn should deliver cash to government coffers. But improvement in June came mainly from land sales, a one-off revenue source that masks the difficult road ahead.
当然，税务收入与经济活动紧密联系在一起，所以中国的国库现金(量)好转,但在六月份,收入提高主要来自出售土地,一次性的收入来源，掩盖了前进道路中的困难。
"Even when we are already factoring in relatively optimistic revenue growth due to the economic recovery, the deficit is quite sticky at around 5 % per year for the next three years," said Isaac Meng, economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing.
法国巴黎银行的经济学家Isaac Meng在北京表示:即使我们已经考虑到由于经济复苏而相对乐观的经济增长，在未来的两三年内，赤字很可能徘徊在5%左右。
But the real worry is the thickening morass of indirect debt.
但是，真正担心的是间接债务泥潭的增厚.
Officials at the Ministry of Finance estimated earlier this year that local government debt already topped 4 trillion yuan, or 16.5% of GDP, much more than previously assumed.
今年早些的时候，官员在财政部估计，当地政府的债务已经超过了4万亿，这可能占国内生产总值的16.5%，远远超过了以前。
Above and beyond that are 400 billion yuan in bad loans in banks' hands and at least 1 trillion yuan in non-performing debt hived off their books and assigned to asset management companies. The buck stops with Beijing on all of these.
银行手中的不良贷款超过400亿元，他们卖出了至少有1万亿元不良债务的账本和分配到资产管理公司。北京在所有这些问题上都责无旁贷。
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The record surge in bank lending this year means that its sum of liabilities is about to swell in size.
今年银行贷款激增的记录意味着其负债综合约为膨胀的规模.
Banks have showered money on infrastructure projects that are seen as having iron-clad government guarantees. Green said he "conservatively" estimates that Beijing's bill for covering loans issued this year alone will be 1.75 trillion yuan, enough to push its 2009 deficit to 10% of GDP.
Green提到,银行纷纷出钱提供贷款给基础设施项目被认为有铁一般的政府担保。他“保守”的估计，北京的法案，包括今年发放仅17500亿元的贷款，就足以推动其2009年约占国内生产总值10 ％的赤字.
"Debt bomb"
＂债务炸弹＂
Most troublesome of all is the potential for a "debt bomb", in the words of China's Economic Observer newspaper, at lower levels of government as officials engage in financial engineering that is both opaque and highly leveraged.
要说最麻烦的话，是潜在的＂债务炸弹＂．中国的经济观察报，在较低级别的政府官员参与的金融工程上不透明高资产负债比率．
Rules prevent Chinese banks from lending to governments the equity capital which they need to obtain further loans for investment. But local officials and banks are now exploiting a vast loophole thanks to intermediaries known as trust companies．
条例防止中国银行贷款给各国政府的自有资本， 而他们需要获得进一步的投资贷款。但是，由于中介机构作为信托投资公司，地方官员和银行正在利用一个巨大的漏洞。
The process is simple enough. Trusts create specially designed "wealth products", which banks sell to their clients. Banks then give the funds to the trusts and they, in turn, funnel them to governments as equity capital.
这个过程足够简单。信托创建专门设计的“财富产品”，其中由银行出售给他们的客户。然后给银行的信托基金，他们再反过来，漏给各国政府作股本。
Local authorities, in short, are piling debt on top of debt. The Chinese banking regulator has started to warn trusts and banks of the growing risks, state media recently reported.
总之，地方当局是打桩债务最重要的债务。官方媒体最近报道，我国（指美国）银行业监督管理机构已经开始为日益增加的风险而警告信托机构和银行。
It was not long ago that bad loans in China's banking system seemed to pose a massive debt threat to the wider economy. The core solution over the past decade was sustained double-digit growth, vastly expanding the denominator in debt-to-GDP ratios and generating the taxes to pay down the numerator.
中国银行系统的不良贷款似乎在不久前形成了巨大的债务而威胁到更广泛的经济。核心解决方案在过去数十年持续两位数增长，大大扩大分母的债务与国内生产总值的比率，并用由此产生的税收支付分子。
Beijing is already looking to raise taxes where it can -- increasing the levy on cigarettes, for example -- but a return to super-charged growth is again its principal debt reduction plan.
北京希望可以－－从增收香烟那里提高税收，例如－－除了绝妙回报，还有增长，就是其再次减债的主要计划。
In the meantime, China needs to fund its rising deficit.
与此同时，中国需要增加基金的赤字。
On that front, at least, the government can be supremely confident, even if it has to issue more than the planned 950 billion yuan in bonds this year and yet more to cover shortfalls in coming years.
在这方面，至少，政府可以超级自信，即使它已经发行了多于原计划的9500亿元的债券，并且还将在未来几年里发行更多债券以填补亏空。
"There is so much saving and so much liquidity, so there is definitely not a problem that China will not be able to finance its deficit," said Tao Wang, UBS economist in Beijing.
瑞士银行的经济学家Tao Wang在北京表示：“有如此多的储蓄和这么多的流动资金，中国将无法支付其赤字这绝不成问题。
【感谢网友忧心为本文提供翻译帮助】
翻译交流 见6#
When all are thrown into the pot
把所有的东西都算上
But the narrowing of options still discomfits Chinese leaders.
但是选择越来越少仍然困扰着中国领导人。 （discomfit应该是困扰、挫败的意思）
Expenditures were ahead of target and set to surge in the second half on the back of infrastructure projects.
支出瞄准目标，在下半年猛增，被用于基础设施建设及其他方面。
even if it has to issue more than the planned 950 billion yuan in bonds this year and yet more to cover shortfalls in coming years.
即使它已经发行了多于原计划的9500亿元的债券，并且还将在未来几年里发行更多债券以填补亏空。
我也讨厌译经济类文章，太专业了!楼主可以用Google翻译机再查查英英字典试试，Google翻译机虽然译出来的大多不是人话，但是对专业词汇、缩写、专有名词的翻译还是不错的。
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