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[09/11/09 TIME]多米诺骨牌效应:一人失业对于整个城市意味着什么?

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发表于 2009-9-13 11:47 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 woodorw 于 2009-9-13 11:48 编辑

【中文标题】多米诺骨牌效应:一人失业对于整个城市意味着什么?
【原文标题】The Ripple Effect: What One Layoff Means For A Whole Town
【登载媒体】TIME
【来源地址】http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1921445-1,00.html
【译者】woodie
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用,未经AC或译者许可,不得转载。
【译文】
                    
                   When Brian Whitfield, center, lost his job, it affected not just wife Debbie and son Logan but also some fellow citizens.                    
                    布莱恩-怀特菲尔德(中)失业,不仅影响到了他的妻子戴比和儿子罗根,同时也影响到了城市中的其他居民。

The Eaton Manufacturing plant in Roxboro, N.C., makes a 3-in. gadget called a lash adjuster that keeps pressure constant on engine valves, increasing fuel efficiency. Last year Brian Whitfield, a supply-chain analyst at the factory, had plenty of work scheduling orders for raw materials, components and packaging. But with the collapse of GM and Chrysler, business ground to a halt, and when Whitfield arrived at his cubicle on Jan. 20, he found an e-mail from management announcing layoffs. He looked around and saw people leaving, carrying boxes. Then his boss called him into the conference room. "Basically it was, 'Sorry, we're going to have to let you go due to sales,'" says Whitfield, 40. He returned to his cubicle with a packet of information about his severance benefits. He dropped it on his desk. He stared at his computer for a few minutes. "Then I just got up and left," he says.
     纽约Roxboro(地名)的伊顿实业工厂主要生产一种叫做压力自控器的三相装置,用来给发动机阀门持续加压,提高燃料的有效利用率。布莱恩-怀特菲尔德是这家工厂的供应链分析师,去年他的日程排满了从原料,零件到包装的各项工作。但是随着通用和克莱斯勒的崩溃,工厂业务一落千丈,几近停滞状态。1月20号,布莱恩像往常一样走到自己的工位上,等待他的却是来自管理层的裁员邮件。环顾四周,他看到人们正在带着箱子离开,一会儿他的老板把他叫进了会议室。“进去了就是说‘销售业绩不好,我们非常抱歉不得不让你们离开’之类的话”,40岁的布莱恩拿着遣散费的信息单返回到自己的工位,把它甩在桌子上。他盯了自己的电脑几分钟,“然后我就站起来离开了”。

The first week of unemployment was hard to take. Fortunately, Whitfield has a wife, Debbie, who earns $39,000 a year as an accountant for the local county government. The couple didn't have to worry about losing their cozy, well-kept home or being able to take care of their 4-year-old son Logan. After Brian's eight-week severance ran out, he started collecting unemployment insurance and the Whitfields began reining in spending to cover what they expect will be a 40% drop in income this year.
    失业的第一周很难熬。幸运的是布莱恩的妻子,戴比还有一份年薪39000美元,在当地政府做会计的工作。夫妇两个不用担心失去这个舒适体面的家,或是没能力照顾4岁的儿子罗根。布莱恩8周的遣散费用光之后,他开始拿失业保险,与此同时整个家庭也开始节省开支来应对今年失去40%收入的现实。

Though it has been painful for him, Whitfield's lost job should have had little effect beyond his immediate family. One lost job is a microscopic event in the massive organism of the U.S. economy. In good times, America sheds 2.5 million jobs a month but creates nearly 3 million new ones. Rolling unemployment allows businesses to adjust to demand, improving efficiency and fueling growth. A healthy economy compensates job losers by creating new jobs for them. America's economic athleticism has been the envy of other countries, a key to its success.
    虽然对其本人来说已经非常痛苦,但是布莱恩的失业产生的影响远不止波及他自己的小家庭。个人的失业是整个美国经济体的缩影。在经济良好的时代,美国每个月都会去除250万个职位,但会同时创造出300万个新的工作机会。起伏的失业率可以促使商业不断的适应需求,提高有效性和确保增长。一个健康的经济环境会创造出新的工作机会来平衡掉失业的人群。美国的经济竞技主义是其通往成功的关键一环,这让其他国家羡慕不已

But the sharp shock of the 2008 financial crisis paralyzed the U.S. economy. Mass layoffs have been at a record high, flooding the labor market with job hunters. Six years of manufacturing-job losses were compressed into 18 months, overwhelming retraining programs. The collapse of home values and the tightening of credit make worker mobility a moot issue. Instead of connecting the jobless to new jobs, the employment system has seized up. After 33 weeks of searching for work, Whitfield is looking warily to December, when his unemployment insurance ends.
    但是2008年经济危机的严重震荡使美国经济陷入瘫痪。大量涌入人才市场求职的失业者人数再创历史新高。制造业6年的职位损失在短短18个月内发生,彻底压垮了再就业培训工程。
房产价值崩溃和信贷紧缩使得跳槽成了谈之色变的话题。就业系统已然停止运转,不能再为失去的工作平衡出新的职位。33周求职未果后,布莱恩战战兢兢的等待着12月,那时他的失业保险也要到期。

In an unhealthy economy, a single lost job becomes infectious, combining with others and spreading through family, neighborhood and community. Widespread cutbacks in spending by families mean lower demand for businesses and lower tax revenues for the government. This belt-tightening means fewer car sales and thus fewer jobs for car-part makers. It means less government spending on infrastructure and other public services, including economic development. The sum effect is less available work for job seekers — a perfect vicious circle. For a well-educated job loser like Whitfield, it can mean a permanent drop in earning power and standard of living — a reversal of the American Dream.
     在不健康的经济环境下,个人的失业具有感染性,会和他人联系起来,然后在家庭,邻里和社区之间传播。邻里间广泛传播的开支削减意味着对商业更低的需求和政府更少的财政收入。这就勒紧裤腰带的做法意味着汽车销量的进一步减少,那么汽车零件制造商所需要的工人就更少。它也意味着政府在基础设施和其他公共设施方面的投入减少,其中也包含了经济开发方面的投入。总的来说就是更少的职位可以提供给求职者。这形成了一个完整的恶性循环。对于像布莱恩这样受过高等教育的人来说,这可能意味着赚钱能力和生活水平的永久性降低,美国梦遭到逆转。

Sunday morning in Roxboro. The streets are empty, but the church parking lots are full: it seems as if every one of the town's 8,876 residents is at services. At the United Methodist Church on North Main Street, Pastor T.R. Miller is delivering a sermon titled "Rags to Riches to Rags." At the largely African-American First Baptist Church on the other side of Durham Road, the choir is singing "I'd rather have Jesus than silver and gold" so loudly you can hear it in the parking lot.
    周日早上的Roxboro,街上空空荡荡,可教堂的停车位却满满当当:看起来就好像是全城8876位居民都来了。在主街北边的联合卫理工会里,米勒牧师正在进行一场题目为“从穷困到富足再到贫困”的布道。在durham路的另一侧,庞大的非洲裔美国人第一浸信会里,唱诗班在合唱“只要耶稣不要浮华”,声音大的停车场都可以听到。

In the second-to-last row of Roxboro Baptist, the Whitfields try to listen to the sermon, but Brian's mind wanders. Last autumn, Debbie warned Brian that the ax might fall. She grew up in Flint, Mich., the granddaughter of a man who participated in the landmark 1936-37 sit-down strike at GM's Fisher body plant that established industrial-labor-organizing rights in America. But she saw her father and uncle go down with the automakers. "When they shut down the Fisher plant [in 1987], everything within a two-to-three-block radius closed down: bars, restaurants, gas stations, banks. Because I lived through the '80s up there in Flint, I just had a feeling that something wasn't right," she says. Since December, Eaton has idled 99 of its 289 Roxboro employees.
    在浸礼会教徒倒数第2排,布莱恩一家正在聆听布道,但是布莱恩本人却思绪万千:去年秋天,戴比曾经警告过他可能会裁员。她在FLINT长大,她的祖父曾经参加了1936-37年具有历史意义的通用费舍儿车身工厂静坐抗议,这次抗议使得美国建立了工业劳动组织权。但她也亲眼目睹了父亲和叔叔与汽车制造商的妥协。“他们在1987年关闭费舍儿工厂的时候,辐射2到3个街区的一起都随之关闭了:酒吧,饭店,加油站,银行等等,正是因为我在那度过了整个80年代,我觉得这一切太不可思议了。”她说。从12月开始,伊顿公司已经裁掉了它在本地289雇员里的99位。


After he lost his job, Brian went to the Roxboro office of North Carolina's Employment Security Commission and met with Roxie Russell, the branch manager. She suggested that he go back to school. Even if Brian could afford it, he doesn't want to start a two-year M.B.A. program only to drop it when a job comes along. He has focused his efforts instead on looking for work, so far without success. He keeps his spirits up by looking after Logan and coaching Little League.
    在丢掉工作后,布莱恩去了北卡罗来纳州就业安全委员会位于roxboro的办事处,在那里碰到了分部主管 Roxie。她建议布莱恩去充电。可就算布莱恩可以负担的起,他也不想开始2年的MBA课程,因为如果一旦有工作机会,他就不得不放弃课程。现在他全身心的求职,到目前为止还没有结果。他打起精神照顾儿子和为一个小联盟担任教练。

In the meantime, the family is trying to save. Brian's father, a barber with a shop opposite the courthouse, has some farmland outside of town. Brian planted a garden and takes home vegetables; Debbie calculates that they have shaved $125 a month off their grocery bill, but most of their savings come from other cutbacks. They dropped their membership at the local country club, saving $110 a month. They no longer spend $350 to $400 per month on babysitting now that Brian looks after Logan. Their weekly dinner date? Gone, saving another $175 or so per month.
    同时,家里还在努力削减开支。布莱恩的父亲,在县政府大楼对面开了一家理发店,他在城外还有一些农田,布莱恩在那里为家里种了一些蔬菜;戴比算计着虽然他们每个月能在购物单上省下125美元,但是大部头的钱还要靠其他方面来削减。他们注销了乡村俱乐部的会员,这样每个月可以省下110美元。,因为现在布莱恩负责照顾儿子,所以他们不再每月花350-400美元来请保姆。每周的晚餐约会呢,没了!每个月又省下了175美元。

The Whitfields aren't the only ones scrimping in Roxboro. Roy Waldron, a pipe fitter, has stopped going out to dinner with his wife Judy since losing his job in February. Tommy Woods, a former forklift operator, says he is collecting aluminum cans to get gas money to drive to job interviews.
    布莱恩家不是这里唯一削减开支的家庭。管道安装工罗伊自从2月份丢掉工作后就已经不再和妻子一起外出就餐了。前叉车操作员汤米说他要捡铝罐子才能凑够开车去面试的钱。

The list goes on: Russell, the elegant, no-nonsense employment-office manager, says traffic to her office increased 13% over the past 12 months. Of the county's 19,510 workers, 2,358 were unemployed as of Aug. 13 — a rate of 12%. More cuts may be on the way. Aleris International, a manufacturer of rolled aluminum that employs 149 at its Roxboro plant, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February. Charter Communications, which has 14 working for it in Roxboro, followed suit in March. "People are afraid to spend their money now," says Marcia O'Neil, head of the Roxboro Area Chamber of Commerce.
    名单还在继续扩大。简练,喜欢开门见山的就业办公室主管RUSSELL说在过去12月中到她办公室的人数增加了12%。截止到8月13的调查表明,全县19510名工人中有2358位是失业状态,失业率高达12%。更多的裁员即将到来。生产轧制铝的Aleris国际在本地的工厂雇佣了149人,2月份申请了破产保护。Charter通信在本地有14名员工,3月份也步了Aleris的后尘。“现在人们不敢花钱”,这一地区的商会主席玛西雅-奥尼尔说。

The imposed frugality in Roxboro goes directly to Brad Rogers' bottom line. He and his wife Betty opened a popular Golden Corral franchise just south of unemployment services on Durham Road in 1999. Everyone from the town's low-skilled workers to the city elders goes there, drawn by the $9.99 all-you-can-eat buffet and the slogan "Help Yourself to Happiness." This year the Whitfields, the Waldrons and many others aren't: sales are down 2.5% this year, and it would be worse, says Rogers, if he hadn't launched a big coupon push. But that's eaten into profits, which dropped 63% over the past two years and are on track to do the same this year.
    Roxboro实行节俭的做法直逼布莱德-罗根的底线,他和妻子贝蒂1999年在Durham路失业服务中心南边开了一家颇受欢迎的Golden Corral特许连锁店(Golden Corral是一家自助餐连锁的名字)。9.99美元通吃和尽享快乐的口号吸引了城里的每一个人。可是今年很多人都不会去了,销售业绩下降了2.5个百分点。罗根说如果他不进行一次大促销的话,情况还可能更糟。可是这样做会让过去两年里下降了63%,今年依然会下滑的利润额雪上加霜。

To stay in the black, the Rogerses cut all worker hours 10% at the beginning of August, which saved jobs but lowered the wage dollars available to the community. Rogers isn't even the worst off — his cheap buffet can still fit into many tight budgets. O'Neil says other restaurant owners in town tell her they're down 25% in 2009. Big Al's diner closed in February.
    为了保持盈利,他在8月初减少了工人10%的工作时间,虽然没有裁员,但是把工资降低到了一个合适的水平。罗根的情况不是最坏的,他的廉价自助餐还可以迎合许多家庭紧缩后的开支。奥尼尔说城里的其他饭馆2009的业绩下滑了25%。Big Ai这家在2月份就倒闭了。

In the bigger picture, though, consider a GM dealership that was run by three brothers and closed down in November 2008, taking with it 26 jobs. One brother, John Boyette, moved out of town in search of work, while another, Norman, is selling used cars for a dealer in Cary, 50 miles away. "We're getting along the best we can now," says Norman. It's axiomatic that if the local dealership can't sell cars, then GM doesn't need as many parts from Eaton, which then doesn't need as many Brian Whitfields.
    稍微大一些的例子,比如由三兄弟运作的通用汽车专卖店,在08年的11月倒闭了,相应的26个工作机会也随之消失。兄弟中的一个离开了这里去外面寻找工作,另一个则在50公里外CARY的一家汽车专卖店销售2手车,“我们干的不错”他说。很明显,如果汽车销售商卖不出更多的车,通用公司就不用从伊顿公司购买更多的零件,那么伊顿公司就不需要布莱恩这样的人了。

Compared to other parts of the country, Person County's 39,000 residents are actually fortunate. Forty miles south of Roxboro is Research Triangle Park, near Durham, where growth has been led by innovation and the unemployment rate is a mere 6%; 51% of Person County's workforce travels to Durham County for jobs, and that helped soften Person's economic woes in the past.
    和美国的其他地方比,Person县的39000位居民确实是幸运的。Roxboro南部50公里,靠近Durham的地方就是三角科技园,那里创新确保了增长,失业率也仅仅是6%。大概51%的Person县劳动力转移到DURHAM县找工作,以往这可以可以缓和PERSON县的麻烦。

But the previous downturns were not as severe as this one. Decreased spending at places like Golden Corral has gone straight to the county budget's bottom line. This year's sales-tax revenues are projected to drop 10% from last year. Overall revenue is expected to fall 9%, or $5,528,022. Capital projects have been hit. The county had planned to renovate the courthouse, an elegant 1930 brick building that sits in a square off Main Street and has a workmanlike modern extension off the back. At a meeting in May, the county council decided to delay the project.
    但上一次经济衰退没有这次严重。居民削减支出已经直接威胁到了县财政收入。今年的销售税收预计会比去年下降10%。总体的财政收入也会下降9%,或者说是减少5528011美元。投资项目遭到重创。县里本来计划要翻新办公大楼,这个一栋建于1930年的美丽的砖质建筑,坐落在主路外的一个广场上,它的后面曾经做过扩建。但是5月的一个会议上,县议会作出决定推迟了翻新工程。

In that, the county joined a troubling national trend: the collapse of construction spending. Job losses in construction have been a key amplifier of the ripple effect in this recession. In 2007 there were 175 new private residential building permits issued in Person County; as of late last month, the number was 50.
    这样这个县就陷入了麻烦的全国趋势:建筑支出的崩溃。建筑行业工作机会的减少放大了是本次经济衰退产生的多米诺骨牌效应。2007年Person县有175家新的私人住宅获准动工,而今年截至到上个月末为止才只是屈屈50家。

With folks forgoing vacations, Hyco Lake, 10 miles north of Roxboro, was a busier place this summer. It's a man-made lake that actually serves a business purpose. The south end of Hyco Lake feeds cooling water to a massive power plant owned by Progress Energy. The plant employs 268 people and generates up to 2,425 MW of electricity. In January, just after he was laid off, Whitfield called human resources at Progress to see about a job. The Roxboro power plant employs six supply-chain analysts, says Harry Sideris, the plant manager, but he doesn't need any more. Even if he did, Sideris says, Progress has a soft hiring freeze in effect and is filling only essential positions.   
    因为大家都不去度假,所以今年夏天Roxboro北边10公里处的Hyco湖比往年更繁忙一些。这里其实是一个用作商业用途的人工湖。湖的南端为Progress能源公司的大型发电场提供冷却水。这个工厂雇佣了268名员工,产出2425兆瓦的电力。1月份,布莱恩刚刚失业的时候,曾经打电话给Progress公司的人力资源部谋职。工厂的经理哈瑞-塞德瑞斯说工厂现在有六名供应链分析师,不需要更多,而且即使他想要,Progress公司在招聘上也有软性的冻结政策,现在只需要填满基本职位即可。


Progress also has a plan to sell synthetic gypsum, a by-product of its newly installed pollution-reducing stack scrubbers, to a plant that was scheduled to be built this year by wallboard maker CertainTeed. Gypsum is a critical component of wallboard, which is a critical component of housing construction. You know where that story goes. Because construction has collapsed, CertainTeed has postponed the wallboard plant until 2011.
    Progress公司本来打算把新安装的污水处理系统产生的副产品-合成石膏卖给计划几年建设的墙板制造工厂CertainTeed.这种石膏是CertainTeed公司生产墙板的必需原料,而墙板又是房屋建设的关键部件。接下来发生了什么,不言自喻。因为建筑行业的崩溃,CT公司把墙板生产厂的动工计划推迟到了2011年。

That's too bad, because according to John Donaldson, president of CertainTeed Gypsum, the plant would have needed a supply-chain analyst. Someone like Brian Whitfield.
    这实在是槽透了。因为CT的老总约翰-唐纳德森说,这个工厂如果如期建成的话,需要像布莱恩这样的供应链分析人才。


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发表于 2009-9-13 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
TIME是时代周刊吗?

了解美国的一些现状;
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发表于 2009-9-13 15:51 | 显示全部楼层
楼上说的有道理
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发表于 2009-9-13 19:24 | 显示全部楼层
106 China 3315 中国  乘以1400000000是什么概念?
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发表于 2009-9-14 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
貌似比生活水平,应该比平价购买力吧,比单纯的人均GDP来的有道理。对于生活水平来说,这个数据我并不看重,要是人民币汇率升高,那岂不是这个排名也高?但实际上汇率升值对我更没好处。
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发表于 2009-9-14 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
《21世纪经济报道》就有篇文章叫《粥场新客》,专门描写失业后等待救济的美国中产阶层现状。
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