【09.09.28 时代】中国六十年：繁荣之路（3楼附电子书下载地址）

渔音谦谦

【中文标题】中国六十年：繁荣之路
【原文标题】The Road to Prosperity$
【登载媒体】《时代》欧洲版、亚洲版9月28日提前出刊
【来源地址】http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1924366,00.html
【译者】渔音谦谦  Gabirella
【校对】渔音谦谦
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【备注】此文已制作了电子杂志版本，包括英文原文、中文译文以及作者介绍和访问。请在此帖三楼找下载地址
【译文】

Sixty years ago Mao Zedong stood before a sea of people atop Tiananmen Gate proclaiming, in his high-pitched Hunan dialect, the founding of the People's Republic of China and that the "Chinese people have stood up!" The moment was marked with pride and hope. The communists' victory had vanquished the Nationalist regime, withstood the vicious onslaught of the Japanese invasion and overturned the century of foreign encroachment on China's territory. Moreover, Mao and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) came to power without significant external support — theirs was largely a homegrown revolution.

60年前，毛泽东站在高高的天安门城楼上，面对着下面如潮的人海，用他那浓重的湖南口音喊道：“中华人民共和国成立了！”“中国人民从此站起来了！”这是镶刻着荣誉和希望的时刻。共产党赶跑了国民党政权，抵挡住了日本人的侵略，结束了西方国家对中国领土近一个世纪的蚕食。中国共产党的胜利几乎没有依靠外来势力的支持，这一切全靠他们自己。

Mao brought a vision for China that has resonated from the 19th century Qing dynasty reformers to this day: to regain China's fu qiang (wealth and power), dignity, international respect and territorial integrity. In this regard, Mao and the CCP positioned themselves squarely with a deep yearning among Chinese — thus earning their loyalty and the party's legitimacy. His successors have not wavered from this singular vision and mission. (Read "Where China Goes Next.")

在这一天，毛泽东承诺了一个中国的未来，几乎与当年清朝政府内部的改革派一样：让中国走向富强、获得国际声望、保持领土完整。这一点，中国共产党人与全部中国人民都非常向往，因此全国上下达到了高度的一致性，共产党也取得了执政的合法性，毛泽东的继任者也仍然在追求这个目标。

Tragically, Mao's belief in restoring China's greatness and achieving modernity was inextricably intertwined with his ideological desire to transform China into a socialist and revolutionary society. Mao's social engineering continually convulsed China in unrelenting political campaigns. These movements disrupted productivity and caused horrific loss of life. Yet, despite the chaos, the People's Republic embarked on industrialization and stood up. By many measures, 60 years on, China has achieved significant progress toward becoming a major and global power. Mao may recognize it, but he would not be wholly happy with it.

但是遗憾的是，在带领中国走向现代化的道路上，毛泽东并没有甩开他在意识形态方面的追求——将中国建设成一个社会主义革命国家。毛的作为使中国不断地陷入了循环的政治斗争中。这些革命运动极大的破坏生产力的发展，并引发了社会的高度恐慌。目前的中国已经取得了在经济建设方面的巨大进步，并日益成为主要的全球性大国。不过如果毛泽东看到这一切，也未必会感到满意。　

As the People's Republic of China commemorates its 60th anniversary, it seemingly has much to celebrate. China is the world's most populous and industrious nation, is the world's third largest economy and trading nation, has become a global innovator in science and technology, and is building a world-class university system. It has an increasingly modern military and commands diplomatic respect. It is at peace with its neighbors and all major powers. Its hybrid model of quasi-state capitalism and semidemocratic authoritarianism — sometimes dubbed the "Beijing Consensus" — has attracted attention across the developing world.

此时，中华人民共和国正准备庆祝国庆60周年，这对中国来说是很有必要的：中国已经成为世界人口最多、人民勤奋、世界第三大经济体、科学技术全球领先、正在建立一个世界级的高等教育体系、有一支逐渐强大的军队、外交场合也倍受尊敬。中国似乎与邻国和强国之间的关系不坏，这个国家也完美的融合了准资本主义和半民主的集权主义——有时候还会发表《北京共识》——这引起全世界发展中国家的注意。

This growing soft power of China was strengthened by the 2008 Olympics extravaganza, and the Shanghai Expo next year will similarly dazzle. The 60th anniversary celebration in Beijing on Oct. 1 will impress, if not frighten, the world with an arresting display of military hardware and goose-stepping soldiers. Less visible is the fact that China is the first major economy to recover from the global recession and, indeed, is leading the world out of it.

中国的软实力在08年的奥运盛事上得以加强和提高，2010年的上海世博会也会同样地令人惊叹。2009年10月1日，中国将举行盛大的阅兵仪式，不出意外的话全世界的目光都将聚焦于天安门广场，看到最新式的武器和迈着正步昂首走过的士兵。另外，一个人们还未意识到的事实是：中国将是首先复苏的经济体，而且可以肯定的是，它将带领全世界走出经济危机的阴影。

China is on a roll, particularly when viewed over time. Visiting or living in China every year over the past three decades, I have had the personal opportunity to witness dramatic transformations. When I first went to China in 1979, vestiges of the Cultural Revolution were still evident: revolutionary slogans painted on walls and pockmarks on university buildings from bullets and howitzer shells shot by dueling Red Guards. Camouflaged, but just as evident, were the personal scars borne by intellectuals and officials whom I met at the time. I heard stories of beatings and humiliations, confiscations of personal possessions and loss of living quarters, and forced hard labor.

中国是一个复杂丰富的国家，如果亲身经历和观察就更能体会。在过去的三十年里，我几乎每年都要到中国去居住或采访一段时间，亲眼看看中国的鲜活变化。1979年我第一次到中国时，满眼都还是清晰的文化大革命痕迹：墙上仍然刷着革命标语、大学的墙上仍然留有“武斗”时留下的弹孔等。我所见到的知识分子和政府官员们极力掩饰，却还是无法掩藏十年浩劫给他们带来的无尽伤痛。我听到的故事都是关于文革中被抄家的、被殴打的、被羞辱的、被没收财产的、没收住所，还有被强迫劳动的。

I then witnessed the dramatic blossoming of personal freedoms and economic growth in the 1980s, punctuated by periodic countercampaigns launched by neo-Maoists in the leadership. One could literally feel and see Chinese society come alive after its long Maoist trauma, only to have people quickly recoil when the conservatives in the leadership reasserted themselves. This seesaw pattern persisted throughout the decade, culminating in the dramatic Tiananmen demonstrations and their suppression in June 1989.

随后，我又见证了1980年代中国个人自由主义的勃兴、经济的增长，其中也被坚持毛泽东思想的高官所打断和阻挠。所有人都能深切地感受到整个社会逐渐从文化大革命的阴影中走了出来。政府中改革派与保守派的不断斗争贯穿了整个80年代，在1989年6月的天安门事件中推向了高潮。

In the early 1990s, I again experienced China as a society traumatized, this time by the aftermath of Tiananmen. But by mid-decade Deng Xiaoping had reignited domestic economic reforms and China had normalized its place in the world after its post-Tiananmen isolation. Politics, however, remained frozen and the heavy hand of the state remained evident. Only during the present decade, in the waning years of Jiang Zemin's rule and under Hu Jintao, has the Communist Party begun to experiment with very limited political reforms. My discussions with those party officials involved with crafting the "democratic" reforms makes clear that there are strict boundaries to how far they will proceed.

90年代初，在天安门事件后，我再次体验了中国的社会创伤。随后邓小平点燃了国内经济改革的火焰，中国重新在后天安门时代世界范围内确立了自己的地位。可是，中国在政治上仍然明显地保持着森严的管理形态。直到近十年，江泽民时代和胡锦涛的执政后，中国共产党才开始实践小范围内的政治改革。我和一些政府官员经常讨论的是：他们应该如何巧妙的进行民主改革？这需要严格的界定底线。

Thus, when considering the totality of six decades, the record of the PRC is decidedly mixed. While its achievements have been momentous, so are the contrasts and contradictions exposed by those very same achievements. In many sectors, each reform breeds new problems and challenges. China has come a long way, but it still has a long way to go.

因此，当我们回顾建国的60年，中国的经历无疑是复杂的。伴随着许多重大成就的是越来越多的冲突和矛盾。在许多方面，每一项改革就会滋生新的问题和挑战。中国走过了漫长的道路，但它仍然有很长的路要走。

The Cost of Wealth

财富的代价

The question for China's leaders was never whether to modernize — but how. During the Maoist era a variety of economic models were experimented with, each of which achieving some modicum of growth. Yet all of them left China lagging far behind the West and East Asia. The costs of some initiatives, like the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1960, were catastrophic in human and environmental terms. It was not until Deng and Chen Yun, another reform-minded Politburo member, returned to power in 1978 from internal exile that the economic course was changed.

中国领导人的问题不仅仅是“要不要走现代化道路”——更重要的是“如何走现代化道路”。在毛执政的年代，中国曾尝试了几种经济模式，每一种都取得了一些微小的进步，却使中国远远落后于西方和东亚国家。一些革命运动，例如1958年—1960年发生的大跃进，给人民和环境都带来了灾难性的影响。直到1978年政治局常委邓小平和陈云恢复权利后，中国的经济局面才有所改善。

Three decades later, the world witnesses the extraordinary results. China is now the world's third largest economy, after the U.S. and Japan, and recently surpassed Germany as the largest exporting nation. Its GNP is on course to overtake Japan's by 2010 and perhaps that of the U.S. by 2020.

三十年过去了，全世界目睹了中国惊人的变化。中国现在是仅此于美国和日本的全球第三大经济体，最近又赶超德国成为全球第二大出口国。中国的国民生产总值在2010年将超过日本，甚至在2020年超过美国。

Much of this dynamic growth has been export-driven, benefiting the low- and medium-technology sectors of the economy. But China is beginning to move up the technological ladder and is becoming more innovative in certain sectors such as electronics and biotechnology. The country has become a manufacturing superpower and the workshop of the world, producing two-thirds of all photocopiers, microwaves and shoes; 60% of cell phones; 55% of DVDs; over half of all digital cameras; 30% of personal computers; and 75% of children's toys, plus a wide variety of other goods.

经济的增长很大部分得益于出口，也带动了中国传统中低科技产业的发展。现在，中国已经开始迈上高科技产业的台阶，也加速了尖端科技的发展（如电子科技、生物科技）。这个国家已经逐渐成为制造业的航母和世界工厂：生产了全世界2/3的影印机、微波炉和鞋子；60%的手机；55%的DVD机；过半的数码相机；30%的个人电脑；75%的儿童玩具；再加上无数其他的商品。

As a result of its economic boom, China has amassed a staggering $2 trillion in foreign exchange — the largest reserves in the world — and is beginning to invest significant amounts abroad. Today, 37 Chinese multinational corporations rank among FORTUNE's top 500 global companies, up from just six a decade ago, while 450 out of the FORTUNE 500 American companies have production lines and a business presence in China. China has become the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment. To fuel its economic boom, China's voracious and insatiable appetite for raw materials has led it to absorb large amounts of global commodities. China now consumes 16% of global energy resources and is the world's third largest consumer of oil.

经济的迅速发展带来的是中国外在资本的激增——惊人的2万亿美元。中国是全世界最大的储蓄国，同时也加快了对外资本投资的步伐。今日，有37家中国跨国企业跻身世界五百强，而在十年前，这个数字仅为6家。美国五百强企业中有450家在中国投资了生产线。中国成为了全球最受投资者青睐的地方。中国对原材料的急切渴求，使它不断的吸收国际市场。中国现在消费了全球16%的能源资源，也是全球第三大石油消费国。

But the economic explosion has come at a high environmental cost. China's air and water are among the most polluted on earth and it is the leading emitter of greenhouse gases. The environmental nightmare is hurting public health. Malignant cancer now accounts for 28.5% of deaths while respiratory diseases account for 13.1%, according to the 2008 China Statistical Yearbook. China's growth has been dynamic, but it is also double-edged.

但是中国经济的快速增长是以巨大的坏境损耗为代价的。中国的空气恶化，水源污染和废气排放是全球最严重的，环境的恶化严重威胁着公众健康。2008年的中国统计年鉴显示，中国死亡人口中，有28.5％人死于癌症，13.1％人死于呼吸道疾病。急速的经济发展已经成为了中国的“双刃剑”。

渔音谦谦

Reinventing a Nation

重建一个国家

Mao spent his lifetime trying to transform Chinese society in his utopian, socialist and revolutionary vision. He tried to create a "new socialist man" and an equitable society. His regime succeeded in providing the world's largest population with food to eat, housing and basic services. Social vices were eliminated, literacy was expanded, life expectancy increased and infant mortality decreased. These were no small achievements. But Mao's efforts to impose socialism had a deadening effect on urban and rural society alike, as political movements repeatedly harassed different groups of people.

毛泽东花尽一生的心血努力把中国社会建设成他理想中的乌托邦式社会主义的革命国家。他希望培养“社会主义新人”和建立平等的社会。他的体制成功了：中国使世界上一大部分人口有饭吃，有房住，有衣穿，可以享受基本基本服务。社会保障得以完善，文化知识得以普及，生活质量得以提高，新生婴儿死亡率大幅下降。这些不是小的成就。但是毛执意推行社会主义给城市和农村社会都造成了不好的影响，政治的建设干扰了人民的生活。

By the time Deng and his compatriots came to power in 1978, China was traumatized, tired and alienated by 30 years of Maoist experiments and totalitarian controls. Deng's wisdom was to recognize that the state needed to retreat from society and the economy if the creative and entrepreneurial spirits of ordinary Chinese were to be unleashed.

直到1978年邓小平重新掌权，中国已经再三十年毛泽东思想的紧箍咒下变得伤痕累累。邓小平的智慧使他认识到：如果要把中国传统思维以一种有创造性的方式释放出来，必须重新构建中国的社会和经济结构。

Three decades later, Chinese society has fully blossomed. Chinese today experience a wide variety of personal freedoms in daily life that they and their ancestors had never known. Chinese state and society have also reconnected with the past, emphasizing Confucian and Buddhist values. More than 200 million people have been lifted out of poverty and the members of a growing middle class with disposable income travel abroad, invest in the stock market, dine out and decorate their stylish apartments with furniture purchased from stores like Ikea. Access to education has become far more widespread. Some 21 million students attend university today, while an estimated 300,000 study abroad every year. Approximately 206 million Chinese children attend primary and secondary schools. Basic literacy is almost universal in China today, while it was roughly 20% in 1949. Still, China remains a poor country by global standards: some 207 million people still live below World Bank poverty levels on less than $1.25 per day.

三十年后，中国社会得到了全面的发展。如今的中国人充分体验着个人自由，而这对他们的祖先来说是不可能的。中国社会也重新审视历史文化，开始推崇孔子学说和佛学观念。有超过2亿人脱离了贫困，中产阶级人数也逐年上升。他们开始出国旅行，投资股票市场，外出享受美食，以及用新潮的家具比如宜家装修他们的房子。公共教育已经得到普及。现在每年有2100万人接受高等教育，有30万人出国深造。大概有2亿6百万中国孩子接受九年义务制教育。基本的读写能力也已普及，而在1949年这个比例仅为20%。但是，按照国际标准，中国现在还算一个“穷国”：有2亿7百万人生活低于世界银行的标准，也就是说他们每日生活花费不足1.25美元。

With economic growth have come demographic shifts and life improvements. Live expectancy has shot up while infant mortality has plummeted. In 1949 more than 90% of the population lived in rural areas; given the expansion of urban areas, slightly more than half (721 million) do today, according to official statistics. But China's increasing urbanization and spreading industrialization have resulted in a considerable loss of arable land and forcible evictions, sparking much resentment against local officials.

经济增长之后便是人口结构的变化和生活水平的提高。人们的预期寿命变长了，婴儿死亡率下降了。1949年，超过90%的人居住在农村地区；官方统计显示，由于城市面积的不断扩大，现在只有45%左右的人（7.21亿）生活在农村。但是，中国不断扩大的城市化和工业化进程造成了大量可耕地的丧失和人们由于环境而被迫迁徙。这些都造成了人们对当地政府官员的反感。

Chinese intellectual life has also improved, although over time this remains one of the real dark spots of Chinese communist rule. For six decades intellectuals have been persecuted, harassed and forced to conform and create within various boundaries set by the state. They continually probe the boundaries — until the state pushes back. Despite continuing controls, public and private discourse in China has never been so free. The blogosphere and Internet are alive with unbridled discussion — unless and until it crosses the state censor's invisible hand. (Read "Avoiding Censors, Chinese Authors Go Online.")

尽管在过去的一段时间里（译者注：指文革），文化在中国共产党统治之下一直是一片阴霾，但是现今中国人的精神生活水平提高了。过去60年里，知识分子被迫害、被恐吓，他们必须遵循共产党制定的规定，并在其规定范围内进行文化创作。直到博客空间和互联网上人们大肆讨论着，前提是他们逃脱了政府审查部门的无形监控。（请参考《为了逃脱审查，中国作家纷纷进行网上创作》）

While China has made much progress, it still has many blemishes. Treatment of ethnic minorities — particularly Tibetans and Uighurs — is the Achilles' heel of the regime, as violent riots last year and in recent months have clearly demonstrated. Crime and corruption remain serious problems, while cities struggle to provide basic services to the huge "floating population" of 100 million or so migrants. Income disparities (as measured by the Gini coefficient) are now approaching the highest in the world. China has again become a stratified society — just what Mao sought to eliminate. Still, given the unprecedented scale and nature of China's socioeconomic change over the past 30 years, the country's relative stability is commendable.

尽管中国取得了不小的成就，但仍然存在很多不足。处理与少数民族的关系——尤其是对待西藏人和维吾尔族人——是该政权的致命缺陷。去年3月14日的西藏打砸抢烧事件以及近几个月回民的暴动都证明了这一点。贪污和犯罪仍是伤脑筋的大问题，而与此同时所谓的将近1亿的“浮动人口”还没有基本的社会服务。如今的收入差距（以基尼系数来衡量）快要成为世界上最严重的了。中国又变成了一个阶层分化十分明显的社会，而这正是毛泽东想要消除的现象。然而，从过去30年里中国经济社会变化的规模和本质来看，该国的相对稳定还是值得称赞的。

Politics Not as Usual

与众不同的政治

At first glance, China's political system has not changed much since 1949. It is still a Leninist system, dominated by the CCP and an oligarchy of its self-selected leaders, which tolerates no opposition. The Party's powerful Organization Department oversees all major appointments in the country, and one must really be a party member to get ahead professionally. Party and government organs remain essentially as they were six decades ago, copied from the Soviet Union.

乍看之下，1949年以来，中国的政治体制并没有多大的变化。它还是由中国共产党主导的、党内自选领导人的、列宁式的寡头政治，不容许有一丝反对。中共组织部监督国内所有的重大人事任命。而且，只有成为了党员，才能专门从事共产党任命的工作。和刚见过的时候一样，现在党和政府机构都是从苏联那里学来的。

But while much of the structure and essential nature of the system remains largely the same, the substance and process of politics has changed quite a lot. The leadership and the 76 million party members are better educated and their recruitment and promotion is much more meritocratic. Competence is now rewarded. In the past, there existed only two exit paths from officialdom: purges and death. Now mandatory retirement is firmly implemented. Instead of being a totalitarian party dominated by a single leader, the CCP today is an authoritarian party with a collective leadership. The leaders themselves — at least those I have witnessed — are now remarkably self-assured and relatively sophisticated. Marxist-Leninist ideology plays little, if any, role in their decision-making. The policy process is more consultative, although still lacking in transparency. Much emphasis is put on governance and officials at all levels undergo required training in public administration.

尽管中国政治制度的结构和本质都大致没有改变，但其政治生活的具体内容和过程都有了很大变化。党的领导人和76，000，000名党员的受教育水平提高了，在招纳和升职方面都注重任人唯贤。现在有能力者都会受到奖励。在过去，做官只有两种结果：要么被开除出党，要么一直做官到死。如今，强制性退休被严格执行。中国共产党是一个拥有集体领导权的专制政党，而不是由唯一领导者控制的极权政党。领导者们对自己都很有把握，并且变得相对老练了——至少我看到的是这样。就算他们的决策中还有马列主义意识形态的话，其作用也微乎其微了。决策过程尽管还不够透明，但已经更加注重采纳多方意见了；强调执政能力的提高，公共行政部门的各级官员需要接受培训。

On the whole, the Communist Party has proven itself to be remarkably adaptable and open to borrowing elements from different countries and political systems. As a result it is becoming a hybrid party with elements of East Asian neo-authoritarianism, Latin American corporatism and European social democracy all grafted to Confucianist-Leninist roots. The uprising in Tiananmen and across China in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of communist systems in Europe and the Soviet Union were instructive experiences for the CCP. Many lessons were drawn, but the principal one was to remain flexible and adaptable, not dogmatic and rigid. (Read "Beijing Clamps Down After Call for Democracy.")

总的来说，中国共产党已经向世人证明了她对不同国家和不同政治体制的适应性和愿意向他们学习的开放心态。因此，中国正成为一个集东亚新专制主义、拉美社团主义、欧洲社会民主于一体的混合政党，这一切又都嫁接到了儒家思想和列宁主义的根上去了。对中国共产党来说，1989年的天安门事件，以及随后共产党执政体制在欧洲的崩溃和苏联解体都很有指导意义。很多教训可以从中获得，但是最主要的一条是保持政策的灵活性和适应性，不能搞教条主义和墨守成规。

Will the Party's adaptability and the nation's continuing economic growth be sufficient to sustain it in power indefinitely? Perhaps. The CCP's sustenance to date has certainly surprised many leading China watchers. But, going forward, the major challenge to the Party will likely be its ability to deliver adequate "public goods" to the population: health care, education, environmental protection and other social services. Providing stability and ever increasing personal wealth will not be enough to guarantee the Party indefinite legitimacy — it must continuously improve the quality of life of its citizens. This is China's new revolution: the revolution of rising expectations.

中共对时局的适应能力和中国持续的经济增长足以永远支撑其执政地位吗？也许吧。中共所取得的成绩确实让很多高级中国问题的观察者深感惊奇。但是，中共在前进道路上遇到的主要挑战可能是其能否为国民提供足够的“公共商品”：医疗，教育，环保和其他社会服务。创造稳定的社会环境和超高的个人财富对于保障该党的执政地位还远远不够——中共必须不断地提高国民的生活水平。这是中国新一轮的革命：关于外界对其不断增加的期望的革命。

Taking On the World

担负世界的责任

Any consideration of China's transformation since 1949 must recognize the dramatic improvement in China's global posture. Sixty years ago the new People's Republic was cut off from the world, having diplomatic recognition only from a relatively small number of nations. It was excluded from the U.N. It soon became embroiled in the Korean War and the Cold War, which brought further isolation. Despite some marginal trade with Western Europe following the 1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina, China was cut off from international trade, finance and aid. As a result, its economy stagnated.

在考虑自建国以来中国发生的变化时，我们必须承认其国际形象的巨大提升。60年前，新中国与世界隔绝，只与少数几个国家建立了外交关系，还没能加入联合国。迅速卷入朝鲜战争和冷战的中国遭遇了进一步的孤立。尽管1954年日内瓦会议后中国与西欧国家有了一些贸易往来，但仍然被孤立在国际贸易、金融和援助之外。这样的结果是经济的停滞。

Six decades later, China has fully embraced globalization at home and has burst onto the world's stage in a largely positive fashion. It now has both interests and a presence in parts of the world completely new to China — such as Latin America and the Middle East — and enjoys rising international prestige. Beijing has generally managed its relations well with the major world powers: the U.S., Russia and the E.U. It has transformed its regional diplomacy in Asia, reasserted a role in Africa and become much more deeply engaged with international organizations and across a range of global-governance issues. China used to eschew multilateralism, distrusting it as some kind of (Western) conspiracy. While Beijing remains a selective multilateralist globally — engaging on some issues and not others — the broad trend has been positive and in the direction of deeper contributions to the world community.

60年后，中国国内面向全球化，并以积极的姿态登上了世界舞台。在世界上一些对其来说陌生的地方，中国在那里既存在利益又在当地有一定的活动，例如，在拉美地区和中东地区。中国在国际上的名声越来越高了。北京和世界主要大国都建立了良好关系：美国、俄罗斯和欧盟。中国改变了在亚洲的地区外交政策，重新发挥在非洲的影响力，积极参与国际组织和一系列全球事务。中国曾经一直不信任并且回避多边主义，认为它在某种程度上是一种（西式）阴谋。尽管北京仍然是挑剔的全球多边主义者，致力于某些事务，但大趋势仍然是好的，是朝着为国际社会做更多贡献的方向发展的。

China is also more proactive on global security issues ("hot spots" as Chinese analysts like to describe them). When natural disasters now strike, such as the South and Southeast Asian tsunami in 2004 and the Pakistan earthquake the following year, China is there to provide physical and financial assistance. China now has over 2,100 peacekeeping personnel deployed in about a dozen nations worldwide — more than any other member of the U.N. Security Council. This is one tangible expression of China's strong commitment to the U.N. Today, indeed, the PRC may be the greatest advocate of the U.N. among the major powers. (Read "China Takes on the World.")

中国在全球安全问题（中国分析家称之为“火炉”）上也表现得十分积极。自然灾害爆发之后，就像04年南亚和东亚发生的海啸，05年巴基斯坦的地震，中国都会提供人力和财力上的支援。中国现在有2100人的维和人员部署在世界各地的将近12个国家，这已超过了其他联合国安理会成员。这是中国现在严格遵守联合国宪章的表现。的确，中国人民解放军也许是联合国几个主要大国中间最重要的维和倡导者了。（请参考《中国独挑世界大梁》）

In the field of arms control, China used to be a serious proliferator of missiles and missile components, and a significant seller of conventional arms. But, over time, China has signed or ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Biological and Conventional Weapons Convention, has joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group and has essentially adhered to the Missile Technology Control Regime (although it is not a member). This is not the China that the world used to know: a "revisionist" destabilizing power that sought to overturn the international order. Today, the People's Republic of China is deeply involved across the globe and is increasingly an upholder of, and contributor to, the existing international order. China has been a considerable beneficiary of the post – Cold War order, which has allowed Beijing to establish a presence in regions and international institutions that was not previously possible.

在军备控制方面，中国过去曾积极研制导弹和导弹部件，并出售大量传统军事武器。但是，中国已经签订或者认可了《核不扩散条约》、《全面禁止核试验条约》以及《禁止生化武器公约》，中国参与了NSG，基本上遵守了《导弹武器技术控制制度》的内容（虽然还未签署）。这和之前世界对中国的印象有些偏差，一直以来很多人都觉得这个带着“修正社会主义”色彩的国家将给世界秩序构成威胁。今天，中华人民共和国广泛的参与国际事务，也为国际秩序的稳定做着自己的贡献。中国是冷战时期的受益者，获得了足够的时间去重新塑造在世界舞台的形象，这在之前几乎是不可能的。

China's strategic posture is also changing. Its military modernization program has made giant strides in recent years — and they will be on display in the massive military parade in central Beijing on Oct. 1. In many categories China's military is the best in Asia and in some sectors is approaching NATO standards. The People's Liberation Army still has no global strike capacity, however, other than its intercontinental ballistic missiles and cyberwarfare capabilities.

中国的战略姿态也正在发生着改变。其军事现代化已经在近年里取得了骄人成绩，这些现代化的军事装备将在10月1日北京的阅兵式上展现。从很多方面来看，中国的军事是亚洲最强的，而且在一些领域已经接近了北约的军事标准。除了其洲际弹道导弹和网络作战能力之外，中国人民解放军尚未具备全球作战能力。

Still, many countries worry about China's rise and global expansion, even though it has, to date, been outwardly peaceful. Public opinion polls in Europe and the U.S. regularly reflect a negative image of China, while concerns over economic competition and job losses are growing in Europe, Africa and Latin America. Substantial strains remain in Beijing's ties with three of China's most important neighbors: Australia, India and Japan. Even relations with Russia, which have achieved historic highs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have run into obstacles. This is unsurprising. As Beijing expands its influence and begins to flex its new muscle on the world stage, it's to be expected that China will engender occasional discord with other nations. (Read "The China-India Rivalry: Watching the Border.")

然而，尽管中国对外一直坚持走和平发展道路，很多国家仍然担心中国的崛起和全球扩张会对他们构成威胁。欧洲和美国的民意调查显示，民众心目中的中国均是负面形象。在欧洲，非洲以及拉丁美洲，人们对于经济竞争和失业倒是越来越关心了。北京和其三个最重要的邻居：澳大利亚、印度和日本的关系一直都很紧张。甚至和自苏联解体后发生巨变的俄罗斯的关系发展也遇到了阻碍。这一切都不足为奇。随着北京在世界舞台上影响力越来越大，并在一些新的领域扩大影响，自然中国会和别国产生摩擦。（请参考《中印敌对：紧盯边界》）

Future Shock?

未来冲击
（译者注：原文作者指的是由于社会激变,将来人口爆炸,知识爆炸,环境大变等使人受到压力而导致无所适从的感觉）

Some historians of China think they see the telltale signs of dynastic decline: government corruption, social discontent (especially in the countryside), autocratic rulers and a militarizing state. Some contemporary China experts also voice their doubts — proclaiming the regime fragile and the political system ossified — while economists question how long the dynamic growth can continue.

中国的一些历史学家认为中国开始走下坡路的迹象已开始显现：政府腐败风气严重，社会不满情绪衍生（尤其在农村地区），管理不民主以及国家军事化。当代中国学者也表达了他们的一些疑虑——中国政权的脆弱和政体的僵化——另一方面经济学家们却在质疑这种快速的增长还能持续多久？

While the system and country have weaknesses and challenges, the Sinological landscape is littered with its naysayers and critics. The People's Republic of China has endured for six decades and has overcome a wide variety of serious domestic crises, border wars and international isolation. Its strengths and adaptability have repeatedly been underestimated by outside observers. One thing is certain: China will remain a country of complexity and contradictions — which will keep China watchers and Chinese alike guessing about its future indefinitely.

中国及其体制存在软肋和挑战，而学者对该国的看法不乏否定和批评。中华人民共和国已艰难走过了60年，克服了各种严重的国内危机、边界战争和国际孤立。其力量和适应力一再为外界观察家所低估。有一件事是可以肯定的：中国仍将是一个充满复杂性和矛盾的国家———这一点将使中国问题观察家和中国人自身继续不停地猜测这个国家的未来。

渔音谦谦

繁荣之路电子杂志下载








此刊包括《繁荣之路》的英文原文、中文译文、作者简介、作者访问以及《时代》官网上一套《狂野中国》的摄影集。
有兴趣的筒子可以下载来看看！
谦我第一次做电子杂志
做的不好大家多担待！

下载地址：

http://www.rayfile.com/zh-cn/files/e0777e11-acc4-11de-9e27-0014221b798a/

纳米盘的下载地址：
http://www.namipan.com/d/%e3%80% ... af282b47c3fc2f3bf00


=================翻译交流==================

#16楼

感谢LZ的翻译，顺便挑点小错。
1.and recently surpassed Germany as the largest exporting nation 最近又赶超德国成为全球第二大出口国。
——这句根据英文意思应该是成为第一大出口国，前段时间新闻也报道了今年上半年中国已超过德国跃居第一。
2.slightly more than half (721 million) do today现在只有45%左右的人（7.21亿）生活在农村。
——这句应该是一半多一点的人口（7.21亿）生活在农村。
3.("hot spots" as Chinese analysts like to describe them)（中国分析家称之为“火炉”）
——这句根据习惯叫法应翻译成（中国分析家称之为“热点”）

rhapsody

终于出来了，楼主辛苦

srn123456

这是谁写的。。。

magicboy

这是谁写的。。。
srn123456 发表于 2009-9-29 15:20

David Shambaugh
3楼电子书里有作者介绍

光明大使

感谢翻译

渔音谦谦

这是谁写的。。。
srn123456 发表于 2009-9-29 15:20

sorry。。我都不记得标注了。。。这个简介在电子杂志里面有。
沈大伟(戴维·香博)是美国著名的中国问题研究专家，乔治·华盛顿大学中国政策研究项目主任、政治学与国际关系学教授。沈大伟研究中国共产党的专著《中国共产党：萎缩和适应》引起了学界广泛关注。

trsita

顶下，谦谦辛苦了，不错。

青衣紫萝

好想看···为什么我下载不了啊
汗··巨汗··

拥抱和平

谢谢谦谦哦~辛苦谦谦哦~大爱谦谦哦~

支持一下

感谢lz啊 看完了 写的还是可以的

67842391

还是老美的传统思维
给个萝卜的同时还不忘手里的大棒

yonghongy23

AC的童鞋们可以在阅读后好好思考一下文中提出的问题， 比如，环保，民族，腐败，贫富差距，社会保障，信仰，民主，改革，军事平衡，世界责任等问题。因为要解决这些问题，除了参考国外的经验和建议，最主要的当然还是靠我们中国人自己。

curiouspuppy

simple0374

感谢LZ的翻译，顺便挑点小错。
1.and recently surpassed Germany as the largest exporting nation 最近又赶超德国成为全球第二大出口国。
——这句根据英文意思应该是成为第一大出口国，前段时间新闻也报道了今年上半年中国已超过德国跃居第一。
2.slightly more than half (721 million) do today现在只有45%左右的人（7.21亿）生活在农村。
——这句应该是一半多一点的人口（7.21亿）生活在农村。
3.("hot spots" as Chinese analysts like to describe them)（中国分析家称之为“火炉”）
——这句根据习惯叫法应翻译成（中国分析家称之为“热点”）

渔音谦谦

补充一个纳米盘的下载地址。
麻烦斑斑帮我补充到三楼。多谢啦。
http://www.namipan.com/d/%e3%80% ... af282b47c3fc2f3bf00



=======版主提示==========

已补充至3楼~

olgacheung

美国有许多智库许多中国问题专家。

我认为最有水准的不是沈大伟，而是在瑞典工作的季北慈。当然，谢淑丽也不错。

dnh7688

这个感觉不错……

gabirella

What an awesome partner!!