Look Out for the Diaoyu Islands（译文见沙发）

zhiyi

September 10, 2010, 6:07 pm
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/look-out-for-the-diaoyu-islands/Look Out for the Diaoyu IslandsBy NICHOLAS KRISTOF
Tensions have erupted over some barren rocks in the Pacific that you may never have heard of, but stay tuned – this is a boundary dispute that could get ugly and some day have far-reaching consequences for China, Japan, Taiwan and the United States.
The islands in question are called the Senkaku chain by Japan, the Diaoyu islands by China, and the Diaoyutai by Taiwan. All three claim the islands, which are really just five islets and three barren rocks northeast of Taiwan, 200 miles off the Chinese coast. The latest confrontation occurred when a Chinese fishing boat collided with two Japanese naval vessels trying to intercept it near the islands. The Japanese detained the Chinese captain for questioning and the two countries have been exchanging indignant protests.


The reason to worry is that nationalists in both China and Taiwan see the islands as unquestionably theirs and think that their government has been weak in asserting this authority. So far, wiser heads have generally prevailed on each side, but at some point a weakened Chinese leader might try to gain legitimacy with the public by pushing the issue and recovering the islands.  It would be a dangerous game and would have a disastrous impact on China-Japan relations, but if successful it would raise the popularity of the Chinese government and would also be a way of putting pressure on Taiwan.
The other problem is that, technically, the U.S. would be obliged to bail Japan out if there were a fight over the Senkakus. The U.S. doesn’t take a position on who owns the islands, but the Japan-U.S. security treaty specifies that the U.S. will help defend areas that Japan administers. And in 1972, when the U.S. handed Okinawa back to Japan, it agreed that Japan should administer the Senkakus. So we’re in the absurd position of being committed to help Japan fight a war over islands, even though we don’t agree that they are necessarily Japanese.
In reality, of course, there is zero chance that the U.S. will honor its treaty obligation over a few barren rocks. We’re not going to risk a nuclear confrontation with China over some islands that may well be China’s. But if we don’t help, our security relationship with Japan will be stretched to the breaking point.
So which country has a better claim to the islands? My feeling is that it’s China, although the answer isn’t clearcut. Chinese navigational records show the islands as Chinese for many centuries, and a 1783 Japanese map shows them as Chinese as well. Japan purported to “discover” the islands only in 1884 and annexed them only in 1895 when it also grabbed Taiwan. (You can also make a case that they are terra nullis, belonging to no nation.)
The best approach would be for China and Japan to agree to refer the dispute to the International Court of Justice, but realistically that won’t happen. And since some believe that the area is rich with oil and gas reserves, the claims from each side have become more insistent.
As Chinese nationalism grows, as China’s navy and ability to project power in the ocean gains, we could see some military jostling over the islands. You read it here first.
沙发有找来的译文。供大家参考

zhiyi

警惕钓鱼岛

尼古拉斯-克里斯托弗

  
围绕着太平洋中几块贫瘠的岩石，紧张局势爆发了。你可能从来没听说过这几个石头，但是别走开——这是一个边界争端，有一天它可能会演变得很难看，而且对中国，日本，台湾，和美国都有深远的影响。

  
争议中心的岛屿被日本称为尖阁列岛，被中国称为钓鱼岛，被台湾称为钓鱼台。这个岛屿实际上只是五个小岛和三块光秃秃的岩石，位于台湾的东北方向，离中国海岸线200海里。三方都宣称对这个岛屿拥有主权。最近的对峙产生的原因是，两艘日本的海军舰艇在钓鱼岛附近试图拦截中国渔船时，两者发生了碰撞。日本扣押了中国船长进行问讯。两个国家一直在交换愤怒的抗议。

需要担忧的原因是，中国和台湾的民族主义者都认为不容置疑，那些岛屿是他们的，并认为他们的政府在主张这个主权时过于软弱。到目前为止，在两边一般都是明智的头脑占上风。然而，在某一时刻，某个被削弱了的中国领导人可能会为了从公众中赢得合法性，在这个问题上推波助澜并收复那些岛屿。这将会是个危险的游戏，会给中日关系带来灾难性的冲击。但是，如果成功了，它会提升中国政府在普通民众中的支持度，也将会是给台湾施加压力的一个途径。

  
另外一个问题是，如果发生对尖阁列岛的争端的话，从技术上来说，美国有义务去帮助日本度过难关。在那些岛屿的归属问题上，美国没有立场。但是日美安保条约指明美国将会帮助保护日本管辖的区域。美国在1972年将冲绳归还日本时同意日本管辖尖阁列岛。所以我们处于一个荒谬的位置：尽管我们不认同它们必然属于日本人，但是我们有责任帮助日本为这些岛屿而战。

  
当然，在现实中美国为了几块光秃秃的石头而信守条约的可能性为零。我们不会为了一些完全有可能属于中国的岛屿而冒和中国核对峙的危险。但是如果我们不伸出援手，我们和日本的安全纽带将会被绷紧到断裂点。

  
那么，哪个国家更有理由对这些岛屿宣称主权呢？我的感觉是中国，尽管答案不是毫不含糊的。中国航海记录显示几个世纪以来这些岛屿就属于中国。而且，1783年的一份日本地图也把它们归入中国。日本只在1884年宣称“发现”了这些岛屿，并仅仅是1895年在吞并台湾时将它们据为己有。（你也有理由说它们是无主之地，不属于任何一个国家。）

  
最好的办法是中国和日本都同意把争端诉诸国际法庭，但现实中这不可能发生。既然一些人相信那个地区富含石油和天然气储藏，每一方的主张就变得更为坚决了。

  随着中国的民族主义在滋长，随着中国的海军和它在海洋上投放力量的能力在增加，我们将能看到军事碰撞围绕着这些岛屿发生。你最先是在这里看到这样的说法的，有书为证。

翻译原自：http://article.yeeyan.org/view/176378/136777

nile

尽管作者感觉钩鱼岛应该属于中国，但他依然对中国收复钩鱼岛的正当行为定性为“令人担忧的”、“危险的”“民族主义”，呵呵，典型的美国式的政治正确。