|
|
【原文标题】Is China Really Funding the US Debt?
【中文标题】中国真的是美国国债的大买家吗？
【登载媒体】The Big Picture
【来源地址】http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/is-china-really-funding-the-us-debt/
【译 者】napiers
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
I keep hearing people erroneously claim that China isfunding US deficit spending. It seems that every eejit with a fundamentalmisunderstanding of mathematics (and access to Xtranormal‘s animatedtalking bears) has been pushing this concept.
我总是听到人们错误的宣称说：中国支撑了美国的财政赤字。但这是非常愚蠢的：一个由来自于对数学方面的根本错误的理解(请参考Xtranormal的小熊对谈的动画)衍生出来的荒谬观点。
It turns out to be only partially true — and by partially,I mean 7.5% true. But that means the statement is 92.5% false.
这已被证明仅仅只是部分正确---部分指的是7.5%，但这意味着92.5%是错误的。
The biggest holders of US debt are American individuals,institutions, and Social Security. We own more than 2 out of every 3 dollars ofUS debt — about over 67%. Hence, we depend far less on the kindness ofstrangers than you might imagine if your listen to the intertubes.
美国国债的最大持有者是美国的相关个人、机构以及社会安全保障。我们拥有的美国国债超过三分之二---大约在67%以上。因此，我们对外国持有者的依赖远远少于你可能的想象，如果你是从网络上得到讯息的话。
Thoseviral animated bears may be clever, but they sure suck at math.
那些病变的动画小熊可能很聪明，但显然对数学一窍不通。(注：这里指的是之前提到的Xtranormal动画)
Total United States’ public debt was ~$13.562 trillion atthe end of the fiscal year (30 September 2010). As of last week, January 4, 2011, theUnited States’ total public debt outstanding has surpassed 14trillion dollars.
美国的公共债务总额在本财政年度结束时(2010年9月30日)达到13.562万亿美元。在上个星期，2011年1月4号，美国的公共未偿还债务总额已经超过14万亿美元。
Political Calculations has whipped up a chart showingexactly who is holding US debt, and funding our deficit:
Political Calculations 已经给出了一个图表，揭示了究竟谁在持有美国国债、支撑我们的赤字：
Sources:
U.S. Treasury Department:
Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States(September 30, 2010)
Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities. (At end ofSeptember 2010)
数据来源——美国财政部：
美国公共债务月报(2010年9月30号)
美国国债的主要外国持有者(截至2010年9月)
【部分评论翻译】
注：以下评论中出现的BR应该是指作者：Barry Ritholtz。
machinehead Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
To me, funding is a flowconcept. The question is not where cumulative Treasury holdings aredistributed, but rather who took down the debt sold in the past year. I suspectChina loomed larger than 7.5% in that figure.
我认为资金是一个流动的概念。问题的关键不在于累计的国债持有者是分散的，而是要记住去年谁将它们抛售。我怀疑中国的持有比例要高于7.5%。
Mark E Hoffer Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
if I understand this Scene,correctly..
the PROC, either, continues tobuy U$D-denominated ‘Assets’ to help maintain their Yuan-peg, or, they’re facedwith, even, more Inflation at Home..
that’s the way this works,right?
and, if that is ‘Correct’, than,“Who has Whom, over a Barrel?”
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/barrel#s 1, & 3, yes?
or, is it CRB http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR?
如果我的理解是正确的话，那么。。。中国或者持续购买美元资产来保持人民币的汇率，或者它们国内正面临着更为严重的通货膨胀。
就是如此，对吗？
并且，如果这是“正确”的话，那么，“谁在听谁的摆布呢？”
是字典http://www.thefreedictionary.com/barrel里的1，3两项吗？
或者，是CRBhttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR指数显示的那样？
obsvr-1 Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
China is not funding thedeficit, in fact none of the UST Bonds fund anything. The USTs that China ownswas/is purchased with USDs already in the system. The bonds that are purchasedmop up liquidity pumped into the system.
When the gov’t wants to spendmoney they do not have, they create it, and if there are no open market buyersthen the FED buys the bonds. In other words, if China did not buy another USTBond it would not stop the USG from spending into deficit.
This is all FED propaganda and athorough misunderstanding by the politicos and MSM in regards to the debt basedfiat monetary system.
中国没有为(美国的)财政赤字提供帮助，事实上(购买)美国国债并没有起到任何作用。中国所持有的美国国债是用业已流通的美元购买的。这些购买的债券只是将注入市场的流动性消除而已。
当政府缺钱用的时候就发行债券。并且如果没有开放市场的购买者，那么美联储将买下它们。换句话说，如果中国不购买另外的美国国债，它将不会阻止美国政府的财政赤字(增长)。
这些关于以债务为基础的法定货币体系的观念，其实都来自于美联储的洗脑，并彻底的被政客和主流媒体误导。
curbyourrisk Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Of that 42.2% owned byIndividuals and Institutions….HOW MUCH OF THAT IS HELD BY THE FEDERALRESERVE??????
Please do answer, as I tried tofind the statistic myself and was not able.
有42.2%被个人和机构持有……美联储占了多大的比例？？？
请务必回答一下，因为我试着自己统计，但并未成功。
Mark E Hoffer Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
this: “…The biggest holder of USdebt is American individuals, institutions, and Social Security…”
is a hideous Fraud..on theSocSec end of it, at the minimum..
Cash was poured into SocSec andexchanged for non-Marketable ‘Securities’ (then Spent)..
the only way those ‘Securities’,that were already Paid for, come back to Life, is to generate the TaxRevenues–Again..
and, on the other hand, we have http://www.aim.org/media-monitor/government-accounting-scandals/
http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-sorry-state-of-us-government-accounting-practices/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/137009-the-federal-reserve-can-not-account-for-9-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-transactions
to begin with..
所谓：“……美国国债的最大持有者是美国的相关个人、机构以及社会安全保障……”就是一个彻头彻尾的谎言……至少在社会安全保障这一部分……
现金被注入社会安全保障系统，换来非上市的“证券”(然后花掉)……
那些已经支付过的“证券”回到现实生活中的唯一出路，就是通过税收---再一次的。而另一方面，我们又有了新的问题(需要面对):
http://www.aim.org/media-monitor/government-accounting-scandals/
http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-sorry-state-of-us-government-accounting-practices/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/137009-the-federal-reserve-can-not-account-for-9-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-transactions
Mark E Hoffer Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
“…When the gov’t wants to spendmoney they do not have, they create it, and if there are no open market buyersthen the FED buys the bonds. In other words, if China did not buy another USTBond it would not stop the USG from spending into deficit.
This is all FED propaganda and athorough misunderstanding by the politicos and MSM in regards to the debt basedfiat monetary system…”
obsvr-1,
shhh, you’ll scare theHorses/wake the Children..
“……中国没有为(美国的)财政赤字提供帮助，事实上(购买)美国国债并没有起到任何作用。中国所持有的美国国债是用业已流通的美元购买的。这些购买的债券只是将注入市场的流动性消除而已。
当政府缺钱用的时候就发行债券。并且如果没有开放市场的购买者，那么美联储将买下它们。换句话说，如果中国不购买另外的美国国债，它将不会阻止美国政府的财政赤字(增长)”
给三楼的obsvr-1同学：嘘，你会吓跑马儿/叫醒孩子的。
machinehead Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Oh jeez, the MMT loonies haveshown up. Free money for all — and ponies for the kids!
喔，天啊，MMT的疯子出现了。所有的东西---包括给孩子们的小马，都免费。
bobthehorse Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Maybe Al Gore can do ‘AnotherInconvenient Truth’?
也许阿尔.戈尔(AlGore)可以拍出“另一个难以忽视的真相”？
dougc Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
This years deficit is about 1trillion, the total federal debt is about 14 trillion. They should not beconfused, the Chinese may only hold 7.5 % of the total us gov debt but they arefinancing about 20 to 30 % of this years deb offeringst.
今年的财政赤字大概有1万亿美元，而整个联邦政府赤字在14万亿美元左右。这不应当混淆，中国人所持有的也许仅仅占所有美国国债的7.5 %，但他们在今年的债务认购上占到20 %~30 %。
machinehead Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
According to the Treasury,China’s holdings of Treasury debt barely rose in 2010 (through October), butthe UK bought a quarter trillion worth of them.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
A surge that large is, bydefinition, ‘hot money.’ Someone ought to be paying more attention to this.
对财政部来说，中国在2010年(截至10月份)的国债持有量几乎没有增长，但英国买下了价值2500亿美元的国债。
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
突然而来的激增，根据定义就是“热钱”。人们应该更多的关注这一方面。
ivar kreuger Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
Hot money indeed. High time toread up on the currency wars of the 1920s and 30s.
I am curious as to why Mr.Ritholtz views the fact that America owes itself 40% of its unrepayablely largedebt as a “bullish indicator.” I tend to view this fact as a clear-cut longterm bearish indicator and point of future economic pain. As anyone who hasread financial history knows, sovereign defaults are common occurrences. So Ican only assume that at some point America will default on her unrepayablely(Micheal Hudson’s word, not mine) large debt. I would much rather the US defaulton phony paper promises to China than SS payments to struggling seniors.Hopefully you could clarify this point Mr Ritholtz and it goes without saying,you have one hell of a blog here.
~~~
BR: WTF are youtalking about? Who said this was bullish indicator?
确实是热钱。现在到了认真研究发生在1920年代到1930年代间的货币战争的时刻了。
我很好奇为什么Ritholtz先生居然将美国欠自己的债务占它所欠下的巨额债务总量的40%视为“看涨指标”。我倾向于将之认为是对未来的经济痛苦的一个明确的、长期看跌的指标和关键点。读过金融史的人都明白，主权违约的现象屡见不鲜。因此我只能假设在某个时刻美国将赖掉它的未清偿(unrepayablely，Micheal Hudson发明的词，我只是引用)的巨额债务。相比较而言，我宁愿美国赖掉其对中国的虚假的纸面偿还承诺，而不是无力向可怜的老人提供社会安全保障。Ritholtz先生，希望你能弄清楚这一点；另外不言而喻的是，你的博客糟糕透顶。
~~~
BR: 你这个蠢货在胡说什么？谁说这是看涨指标了？
Low Budget Dave Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
China owns 7..% of the total,but nearly 50% of the amount issued in the last three years. If you subtractout Social Security and other imaginary investors, the total jumps up to about80%. This is pretty much the exact opposite of the conclusion that you reached.
中国持有总量的百分之七点多，但在过去三年的发行数量中占到接近一半的比例。如果减去社会安全保障和其他想象中的投资者，那么就会达到80%。这恰恰和你得到结论相反。
Barry Ritholtz Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 1:38 pm
If you subtract my strikeoutsand pop ups in high school, I was an .800 hitter
如果你减去我在高中时代的三振出局以及高飞球，我就是80%的击球手了。
Thor Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
They also have very littlechoice from what I understand. We give them dollars for all the crap we buy andthey need to keep their currency pegged at a low rate so they have littlechoice but to buy that debt, and not many options when it comes to getting ridof it.
Low Budget – Pull up a couple ofgraphs that show both China’s purchasing of our debt vs our trade deficit withthem.
我的理解是他们总是只有很少的选择。我们给他们美元购买垃圾产品，他们需要保持本国货币的低汇率，因此他们别无选择只能购买国债，但想要摆脱的时候却没有多少办法。
低预算---罗列的一些图表显示了中国正在购买我们的债务以及我们对中国的贸易赤字。
jjay Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
I am not certain about this.
But, if you take all the Federal government annual revenues, excluding SS.
Subtract all the interest currently being paid annuallly on the national debt.
What is left is the amount the Federal government has to fund everything elsein the budget with.
As the national debt continues to soar.
And average interest rates begin to rise.
The twain shall meet!
A simultaneous equation of sorts.
我对这个不确定。
但是，如果你将排除社会安全保障后联邦政府的总岁入，减去目前每年为国债所支付的利息。
剩下来的就是联邦政府必须为预算中的所有其他部分支付的数额。
国债继续飙升，而平均利率也开始上升。两者总是会相遇的。勉强算得上联立方程。
Marcus Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
So I have to assume that all theFed’s QE2 purchases fall under the “US Individuals and Institutions” category.With Social Security, that means we owe ourselves pretty much 60% of all ourdebt. The way we forgive our own debt is to basically forgive ourselves all ofour SS benefits and US investments so the way out of this is to eat a huge lossOR sell those US assets ASAP so that someone else can get stuck eating thatloss either directly (by the gov’t not paying in full) or indirectly (by thegov’t printing money to pay in full, but with each dollar having reducedpurchasing power). I’m not expecting anything from SS but I have to pay into itby law. Apart from that, I’m placing my bets with countries that actually saveand produce enough to pay their bills.
Also QE2 effectively has the Fedpurchasing ALL of our issuance through June 2011. (Which has me thinking thateither China will not maintain it’s peg or the Fed will not exhaust it’spurchases… unless one or the other starts buying existing Treasuries ratherthan new issuance. Maybe I’m missing something here.) But I think the argumentis that if China stops buying our treasuries, interest rates will rise and ourdebt ridden nation will be screwed. That’s only HALF the argument since it assumesthe Fed won’t do exactly what it IS doing by buying ALL of our issuance. IfChina stops funding us (ie-maintaining their peg) and the Fed continues buyingall of our issuance then the yuan will rise and the dollar will fall. Chinawill then be able to buy all the stuff we use for cheaper and for us it will beincreasingly expensive. You may get every dollar you are owed, but you’ll needevery one of them (and a few more) to buy the same stuff you use now.
Lastly, the fact that we hold somuch of our own debt is MORE distressing than China holding it because itlessens their incentive to keep funding us. Much of our debt inevitably ends upultimately spent on cheap consumer goods produced in China. That means we’regoing in hock and giving them our money now, while it’s worth something. Ifthey’re not buying our treasuries (and instead are investing in gold,commodities, oil reserves, etc.) then they are stealing our buying power andlocking it into increasingly scarce reserves. Over time the value of thosereserves will increase, making China even wealthier and our continuous dollarprinting will make the value of our reserves decrease, making the US evenpoorer. Look out 3rd world country status, here we come! :-)
因此我只能假设美联储的QE2 (第二轮量化宽松政策)的所有购买行为都落入“美国的相关个人和机构”。加上社会安全保障，我们欠自己几乎占所有债务的60%。我们摆脱自己债务的方式基本上就意味着丢掉我们在社会安全保障上的所有收益和美国的投资，避免这种问题出现的办法就是吞下这个巨额损失，或者尽可能快地出售美国资产---因而其它人就会陷入吞下巨额损失的困境，或者直接(美国政府没有能力全额支付)，或者间接(美国政府通过增印钞票来全额支付，但美元的实际购买力下降)。我对社会安全保障没有任何指望，但法律规定必须给它送钱。此外，我把赌注放在那些从事实实在在的积累和生产，从而足以支付他们账单的国家。
QE2规定美联储购买到2011年6月为止我们发行的所有国债。(我的猜想是或者中国不再维持联系汇率，或者美联储没有耗尽它的资金……除非两者之一开始收购现有国债，而不是发行新的国债。这里我不是很确定。)但我认为争议在于如果中国停止购买我们的国债，利率就会上升，而我们这个负债累累的国家就要完蛋了。但这仅仅是一半的争议，因为这其实是假设美联储不会再做目前在做的事情，即买下所有的发行的国债。如果中国停止资助我们(即维持联系汇率)，而美联储继续购买所有我们发行的国债，那么人民币将会升值，而美元会下跌。中国将能够以更便宜的价格购买我们使用的所有东西，对我们而言则恰恰相反。你也许仍然能够拥有相同的收入，但你将不得不用更多的代价去购买你现在使用的同样的东西。
最后，我们持有自己债务太多这个事实其实比中国持有的较多更为糟糕，因为它降低了他们资助我们的诱因。我们债务中的大部分最终不可避免的以购买中国生产的廉价商品的形式出现。这意味着我们将要变卖家当，我们正在将我们的钱给他们，尽管这些钱还有一些价值。如果他们不再购买我们的国债(反而去投资黄金、商品、石油储备等项目)，那么他们正在窃取我们的购买力，并锁定不断稀缺的储备。随着时间的推移，这些储备的价值将会增加，使得中国越来越富有。而我们不断地印刷美元将降低我们储备的价值，使得美国越来越穷。当心(这种沦入)第三世界的势头，我们快了！：-）
inessence Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
You will not default onyourself…bond transactions do not”mop up liquidity.”
你不可能赖掉欠你自己的帐……债券交易不会“消除流动性”。
Thor Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Lastly, the fact that we holdso much of our own debt is MORE distressing than China holding it because itlessens their incentive to keep funding us.
China doesn’t fundanything – they’re simply exchanging their goods for dollar denominated assets.They have very little choice in the matter. We’re certainly not going to startpaying for all of their cheap crap in Euros. They want their trade surplus tobe in the safest form of dollar assets they can use and right now that happensto be US Debt. As long as China runs a huge trade deficit with us, as well askeeps up with their dollar peg, they have very little choice.
“最后，我们持有自己债务太多这个事实其实比中国持有的较多更为糟糕，因为它降低了他们资助我们的诱因。”(注：这是引用之前的评论)
中国并没有资助任何人---他们简单的用他们的产品来交换美元计价资产。他们在这一点上别无选择。我们当然不会开始以欧元支付他们的廉价垃圾。他们希望自己的贸易顺差是能够使用的最安全的美元资产形式，目前来说就是美国国债。只要中国对我们保持庞大的贸易赤字，并保持联系汇率制度，他们就别无选择。
curbyourrisk Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
I still believe that the USgovernment…at some time in the future will default. They will selectivelydefault so as not to hurt anyone. I believe that they will selectively defaulton the debt held by the Federal Reserve. Not the debt held by individuals, northe debt hdl by banks or corporations and ESPECIALLY NOT the debt held by Chinaor the other countries dumb enough to buy it.
Listen…in the long run…I dareanyone to show me a nation….HISTORICALLY…that fully re-paid thier debts!!!!!!
No one actually pays it…theyjust keep funding themselves over and over again.
我仍然认为，美国政府……在将来的某个时间违约。他们将有选择违约，以便不伤害任何人。我相信他们将有选择地赖掉由美联储持有的债务。不是由个人，也不是由银行或公司持有，特别是不是由中国或傻到购买这些债券的其它国家所持有的债务。
听着……从长远来看……我想没有人能够说出任何一个国家……历史上的……完全偿还债务!!!!!!
没有人实际偿还债务……他们只是一次又一次的资助自己。
Thor Says:
January 14th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Curb – There are a number ofEuropean countries who paid their WWII debts in full. Our WWII debts have beenfully paid off at this point as well.
遏制——已经有一些欧洲国家全额偿还了它们的二战债务，他们欠我们的现在也被全部付清。 |
评分
-
1
查看全部评分
-
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-22 19:49
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-1-22 20:56
