【中文标题】中国用不公平的手段击败美国
【原文标题】How China unfairly bests the U.S.
【登载媒体】洛杉矶时报
【原文作者】Peter Navarro
【原文链接】http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-navarro-trade-china-20110621,0,1648754.story
中国胜过美国的产业优势，实际上源于一系列复杂的不公平贸易行为。在自由贸易框架中，这些行为都是不合法的。
美国经济已经持续低迷了十多年，即使有再多的右翼减税政策和左翼的财政刺激方案，也无法解决造成我们经济缓慢增长和高失业率的核心结构问题。这个问题就是大规模的、长期的贸易赤字——大部分来自中国，它从我们手中夺走的就业岗位数量，几乎与让美国人全部就业所需要的工作岗位数量相当。
要理解美国的巨额贸易赤字为何是这个国家经济困境的主要根源，首先要理解驱动我们国民生产总值的四个主要因素：消费、商业投资、政府支出和净出口。我们这篇文章主要讨论净出口。
净出口指的是进口与出口的差，贸易赤字表示净出口是负值，这直接降低了GDP的增长比率和就业岗位增长比率。
美国的贸易赤字让我们付出每年1％GDP增长和将近100万个就业岗位流失的代价，这表示我们在过去十年中减少了数百万个就业岗位。今天，如果我们还保有这些就业岗位，我们就不会看到居高不下的失业率、被强制抵押赎回的房屋和长满杂草的工厂。
据此得出的结论是，如果我们想让美国人有事情可做，我们必须大幅削减贸易赤字。从统计角度来看，我们需要大幅削减与中国之间的贸易赤字。
每天，美国消费者购买中国出口商品的金额比美国销售到中国的商品的金额高出10亿美元。除原油以外，中国一个国家就占据了美国贸易赤字的大约70％。这种“对中国出口商品的依赖”让民主的美国人向世界上最大的共产主义国家亏欠了1万亿美元，而中国握有3万多亿美元的外汇储备，其中大部分是美元。
如果更形象地说明这些外汇储蓄的规模，中国手里的钱足够买下道琼斯工业平均指数中所有大公司的多数股，包括美国铝业公司、卡特彼勒、埃克森美孚、沃尔玛，还能剩下几十亿美元。
那么，我们怎样才能扭转，或者至少大幅度降低与中国间的贸易赤字现象呢？首先，我们必须突破一个成见，即中国的产业优势完全来自于廉价劳动力。实际上，廉价劳动力虽然是因素之一，但当你仔细研究了中国产业优势中各组成部分之后，你会发现它实际上是源于一系列复杂的不公平贸易行为。在自由贸易框架中，这些行为都是不合法的。
中国最强大的让对方失业的“武器”是煞费苦心的出口补贴制度、对美国科技和贸易机密厚颜无耻的剽窃、仿造耐克和雪佛莱等高端品牌、机智地操纵货币大幅贬值，以及强迫那些在中国境内运作或向中国销售商品的美国公司转移技术。
这些不公平的贸易行为严重违反了世贸组织的规定和美国政府的法律，财政部曾经裁决反对操纵汇率的行为（可惜的是奥巴马政府拒绝把这个判决施加给中国，即使这曾经是他竞选时承诺的事情之一。）。
而且，令人难以置信的短视，让中国共产党竟然愿意用大范围的环境破坏和居高不下的工作场所安全事故，来换取那几分钱的生产成本优势，这一切都是因为极为松懈的制度标准。例如，根据世界卫生组织提供的数据，每年大约有70万中国人死于环境污染，等于每年消失一个怀俄明州。中国官方承认，每年有2000人死于煤矿事故，而美国每年因此死亡的人数还不到50。
我们要想清楚：这些货真价实的经济武器已经让数千家美国工厂关闭，数百万美国工人遭受连带损失。所有这些都发生在所谓自由贸易这杆大旗下。
如果我们的确想逆转目前我们与中国之间摧毁就业岗位的贸易赤字形势，第二个需要被揭露的错误观念是，自由贸易让双方受益。如果一个国家用欺骗的手段对付另一个国家，那么这就不是一个自由贸易的概念。实际上，当一个只认钱财的中国采取不公平的贸易行为来向我们的产业基础宣战时，美国经济将注定是输家。
鉴于目前美中之间的结构性问题，以及渺茫的建设性贸易改革举措，我们的经济前景必定是昏暗的。这一本质已经被越来越多的选民所认清，只有能抓住这一点的总统候选人才能在2012年大选中胜出。我们需要一个人，他/她引导这个国家走向与中国贸易关系的基础，是建立在美国人理想的自由、公平概念上，而不是建立在让中国人充分就业、美国工人充当炮灰的重商主义和社会主义贸易政策上。
原文：
China's manufacturing advantage over the U.S. is actually due to a complex array of unfair trade practices, all of which are illegal under free-trade rules.
The American economy has been in trouble for more than a decade, and no amount of right-wing tax cuts or left-wing fiscal stimuli will solve the primary structural problem underpinning our slow growth and high unemployment. That problem is a massive, persistent trade deficit — most of it with China — that cuts the number of jobs created by nearly the number we need to keep America fully employed.
To understand why huge U.S. trade deficits represent the taproot of the nation's economic woes, it's crucial to understand that four factors drive our gross domestic product: consumption, business investment, government spending and net exports. This discussion focuses on net exports.
Net exports represent the difference between how much we export and import. A trade deficit means net exports are negative, and that directly reduces both the GDP growth rate and rate of job creation.
America's trade deficit is costing us close to 1% of GDP growth a year at a loss of almost 1 million jobs annually. That's millions of jobs we have failed to create over the last decade; and if we had those jobs now, we wouldn't see continuing high unemployment numbers, padlocked houses under foreclosure and empty factories pushing up weeds.
It follows that if we want to get America back to work, we need to sharply reduce our trade deficit. As a statistical matter, that means sharply reducing our trade deficit with China.
Every business day, American consumers buy $1 billion more in Chinese exports than American manufacturers sell to China, and China alone accounts for about 70% of America's trade deficit in goods, excluding oil imports. This "Chinese import dependence" has led a democratic America to owe the largest communist nation in the world more than $1 trillion, while China holds more than $3 trillion in foreign reserves, most of them in U.S. dollars.
To put these dollar reserves in perspective, that's more than enough money for China to buy a controlling interest in every major company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including Alcoa, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Wal-Mart, and still leave billions to spare.
So how can we eliminate, or at least drastically reduce, our trade deficit with China? For starters, we must puncture the myth that China's main manufacturing edge is solely its cheap labor. Indeed, while low labor costs are a factor, when you carefully research the biggest source of China's manufacturing advantage, it is actually a complex array of unfair trade practices, all of which are illegal under free-trade rules.
The most potent of China's "weapons of job destruction" are an elaborate web of export subsidies; the blatant piracy of America's technologies and trade secrets; the counterfeiting of valuable brand names like Nike and Chevy; a cleverly manipulated and grossly undervalued currency; and the forced transfer of the technology of any American company wishing to operate on Chinese soil or sell into the Chinese market.
Each of these unfair trade practices is expressly prohibited both by World Trade Organization rules as well as rules established by the U.S. government, e.g., the Treasury Department has sanctions against currency manipulation (which, alas, the Obama administration refuses to use against China despite campaign promises to do so).
In addition, there is the Chinese Communist Party's incredibly shortsighted willingness to trade tremendous environmental damage and a surfeit of workplace deaths and injuries for a few more pennies of production cost advantage, all because of ultra-lax regulatory standards. For example, according to the World Health Organization, almost 700,000 Chinese citizens die annually from the effects of air pollution — that's like losing everybody in Wyoming every year — while Chinese officials acknowledge more than 2,000 coal mining deaths annually, compared with fewer than 50 in the United States.
Make no mistake. All of these real economic weapons have led to the shutdown of thousands of American factories and turned millions of American workers into collateral damage, all under the false flag of so-called free trade.
The second myth we must expose if we are to ever reverse the job-killing trade deficits we now run with China is the idea that free trade always benefits both countries. That doesn't hold true if one country cheats on the other. Instead, when a mercantilist China uses unfair trade practices to wage war on our manufacturing base, the American economy is the big loser.
Given America's structural problem with China and absent constructive trade reform, our economic prospects can only dim further. The presidential candidate who grasps that essential truth, which is becoming increasingly understood by much of the electorate, will be the one who wins in 2012. We need someone who can lead this country to a trade relationship with China founded on the American ideals of free and fair trade rather than a set of mercantilist and socialist trade policies that employ the Chinese masses at the expense of American workers. |
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发表于 2011-6-24 13:57
