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本帖最后由 逆卷炎灵 于 2011-7-21 14:21 编辑
【中文标题】不要以虚假“事实”来判断中国
【外文标题】Don't Judge China on Phantom Facts
【刊载媒体】CNBC
【刊载日期】2011.7.11
【原文链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3120948&pid=4687923&page=1&extra=#pid4687923
【译者】逆卷炎灵（三流翻译，请多指教）
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
By: Shaun Rein, CNBC Contributor，Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group
原文作者：肖恩·赖因，CNBC赞助者，中国市场研究集团创始人兼总经理
There are a lot of doomsday scenarios about China’s economy floating around these days and oddly, a number of them are focusing on infrastructure spending and rising local debt rather than the real threat of rampant inflation, which hit a three-year high in June at 6.4 percent.
近些天，诸多中国经济崩溃论不绝于耳，许多持这些论调的人，都把着眼点放在基础设施建设的巨额耗费以及不断增长的地方债务上，而对于6月达到年度最高6.4%的疯狂的通货膨胀却不怎么关注。
Famed bearish economist Nouriel Roubini said in a column for Project Syndicate that China’s economy will face a sharp slowdown in 2013 because of too much wasted infrastructure spending.
著名的悲观经济学家努里尔·鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）在《评论汇编》的一栏中说道，由于过多浪费的基础设施耗资，中国的经济在2013年会面临严峻的衰退问题。
Similarly, MIT professor Huang Yasheng argues that Chinese incomes are not rising fast enough to offset dwindling export growth and that urbanization has been wasteful.
同样的，MIT教授黄亚生也持这样的论点，他认为，中国的收入增长缓慢，无法抵消出口减少带来的影响，而且城市化过程中有诸多浪费现象。
However, a quick examination of Roubini’s and Huang’s data points show there is little merit in their conclusions because they are both using phantom facts.
然而，鲁宾尼和黄亚生的论点却经不起推敲，因为他们都错误地参考了虚假的信息。
Roubini argues that infrastructure spending has been excessive and redundant, creating not needed and unsustainable projects that will cause an inevitable slowdown. A recent article in Reuters quotes Roubini as saying: ‘“I was recently in Shanghai and I took their high-speed train to Hangzhou,’ referring to the new Maglev line that has cut traveling time between the two cities from four hours to less than one. ‘The brand new high-speed train is half-empty and the brand new station is three-quarters empty.
鲁宾尼认为基础设施投资严重过剩，中国制造了许多没用的、不耐用的工程项目，这必然会导致经济下降。路透社最近发表的一篇文章中，引用了他的话：“‘我最近在上海乘坐了他们通往杭州的高速列车。’说道那个能把两地行程从四小时减到不到一小时的新磁悬浮列车时， 鲁宾尼说：‘这个崭新的高速列车有一半座位是空的，而那个崭新的车站则有三分之一是空的。’”
Parallel to that train line, there is also a new highway that looked three-quarters empty. Next to the train station is also the new local airport of Shanghai and you can fly to Hangzhou,’ he said. ‘There is no rationale for a country at that level of economic development to have not just duplication but triplication of those infrastructure projects.”’
“与列车线一样，还有一个新的交通工具看起来也是空了三分，那就是紧挨着车站的新机场，从上海直接飞往杭州”，他说：“对于经济水平在这种层次的国家来说，建设这么庞大的基础设施工程，毫无道理。”
Scary stuff – if it were true. Fortunately reality is far from what is being framed by Roubini. His contention that there has been infrastructure spending in triplicate does not withstand even the most basic scrutiny. I checked with several airlines and travel agents like Ctrip [CTRP 43.77 -1.14 (-2.54%) ] and Expedia [EXPE 30.39 -0.29 (-0.95%) ], and they all confirmed that there are no direct flight between Shanghai and Hangzhou and never was.
可怕的在这里——现实远非鲁宾尼所勾勒的那样。他那个关于基础设施建设过剩经不起基本的推敲。我查了一些航班和旅行社，例如携程旅游网、艾派迪旅游公司，他们根本没有从上海直接飞往杭州航班，从来都没有。
How about that empty Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev train? That train would certainly be empty, since like those direct flights it simply does not exist.
那么那辆空空如也的上海—杭州磁悬浮列车呢？那辆列车当然是空的，如那些直接航班一样，这辆列车也不存在。
Plans for a Maglev train were scrapped after thoughtful planners calculated such construction would indeed be wasteful. In fact, aside from the 7-minute Maglev ride that connects Shanghai's Pudong International Airport - which handled 40.6 million passengers in 2010 and 3,227,914 metric tons of cargo, making it the world's third-busiest in terms of freight traffic- with a subway station in the city, there are no other Maglev trains in operation in the country.
深思熟虑的磁悬浮列车策划者们，考虑到那些工程确实没用而且会很浪费，因此早就取消了工程计划。实际上，那个连着上海浦东国际机场的磁悬浮列车，仅需七分钟路程，在2010年就承载了4060万乘客，3，227，914公吨货物，这个磁悬浮列车加上城市地铁是世界上第三繁忙的货运路线，除了这条线路，这个国家根本没有其他的磁悬浮列车。
Huang, on the other hand, in a July 6, 2011 blog post in the New York Times says, “Beijing and Shanghai have some of the lowest population densities among the world’s big metropolises.” From this Huang concludes that Shanghai’s infrastructure buildup is not needed.
另一方面，在2011年7月6日，黄亚生在纽约时报的博客中说道：“北京和上海是世界大都市之中人口密度最低的。”从个数据出发，黄亚生得出了上海基础设施建设毫无必要的结论。
In fact, Shanghai has the highest density of urban populations in the world at official population numbers, which does even include millions of unregistered workers in the city. It is not uncommon for Shanghai families of three or more to live in less than an area of 200 square feet per person, while the average home in America is 10 times that size.
实际上，从官方数据来看，上海是世界上城市人口密度最高的城市，这还不包含数城市中的百万没户口的流动工人。有家庭三口甚至更多居住在人均不到18平米的空间里，这在上海很普遍，而美国则是这个数据的十倍。
Most workers in the restaurant and construction industries live in sub-human dormitories, where eight people or more share a room. Infrastructure spending is badly needed to relieve living congestion by allowing for cheaper land sales farther from the city center just to get basic living space for people.
许多在餐馆、建筑业的工人居住在集体宿舍里，8个人一间或者更多。基础设施建设急需减轻住房压力，通过远低于市区价格的廉租房屋，让人们获得最基本的生存空间。
Huang also underestimates the middle class’s purchasing power, but he does bring up important issues. Namely, China needs to avoid falling into the middle-income trap that many developing countries do when per capita GDP hits $6,000 a year and stagnate. If it does not, China will be more like a Mexico, with huge income disparity between the rich and poor, rather than the world’s leading economic superpower.
黄亚生也低估了中产阶级的购买力，但他确实提出了一个重要的议题。换句话说，中国需要避免陷入“中间所得魔咒”，不要像许多发展中国家那样，当年人均GDP到6000美元的时候，经济陷入停滞。如果不这样的话，中国就会是下一个墨西哥，在穷人和富人之间有巨大的贫富差距，这样的中国不会成为领导世界经济的大国。
Measures to promote consumption are actively being implemented, which will lessen the risks, Huang mentions. Fourteen provinces this year increased their minimum wage by an average over 20 percent. This is on top of hikes by provinces like Sichuan, which increased the minimum wage by 44 percent in 2010.
黄亚生还提到，促进消费的诸项措施正在积极执行之中，这将使得风险变小。今年，有14个省份提高最低工资标准近20%。在2010年，像四川这样的省份，提高最低工资标准高达44%。
Shanghai’s government is also forcing parity in social security and health care benefits for official Shanghai residents and migrants registered to work there.
上海市政府也在强制平衡正式上海居民和外来移民之间的社保和医疗费用。
Wage and social security increases are a must for the health of the economy as Huang rightly points out but they are also largely responsible for the massive inflation. The government needs to walk a careful line between improving everyday conditions and making China uncompetitive as an investment destination.
黄亚生明确指出，工资和社保的增长，对于经济健康来说十分必要，但他们也很大程度上导致了很高的通货膨胀。政府需要在提高生活水平和改进投资环境之间谨慎地找到一条中间路线。
China is not immune to economic cycles. It will certainly go through ups and downs in the coming decades. But problems are more likely to stem from inflation, a weak education system, and a rocky shift to more consumption than concerns about local debt or over-infrastructure spending based on Roubini’s and Huang’s phantom facts.
中国无法免疫于经济周期规律。在未来的几十年，经济水平肯定要经历诸多跌涨。但问题很可能出在通货膨胀、薄弱的教育体系以及刺激消费需求这些问题上，而不是基于鲁宾尼、黄亚生的虚假信息得出的“地方债务”、“基础设施耗资”这样的问题。
Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group (www.cmrconsulting.com.cn), a strategic market intelligence firm, and is based in Shanghai. He is also the author of an upcoming book on the end of cheap Chinese labor.
肖恩·赖因是中国市场研究集团（www.cmrconsulting.com.cn）创始人兼总经理，中国市场研究集团是一个提供市场战略策划的公司，基地位于上海。肖恩·赖因也是即将出版的《中国告别廉价劳动力》一书的作者。
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