【华尔街日报110815】中国官方数据混淆房地产状况

lilyma06

【中文标题】中国的官方数据混淆房地产状况

【原文标题】China's Official Data Muddy Its Housing Picture

【登载媒体】华尔街日报

【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904006104576502414258582694.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories

【译    者】lilyma06

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。

【译    文】

By TOM ORLIK
The outlook for China's housing sector is both crucially important for the world economy and—because of weakness in the data—very hard to predict.
因为在数据上很难预测的弱点，中国房地产部门的前景对世界经济都至关重要。
Despite a government push this year for more-accurate home-price data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, international markets—and most Chinese consumers—remain deeply dubious of the official monthly figures.   
尽管从今年以来中国国家统计局开始了政府推动更精确的房产价格数据，国际市场和中国消费者仍对官方的月度数字深为怀疑。
July data from the National Bureau of Statistics are due out Thursday, but confidence in the official figures is so low that the markets pay more attention to numbers from a private data provider, the China Real Estate Index System.
国家统计局公布的7月份数字截止到本周四，然而人们对官方数字信心很低，市场更多地关注了一个私有数据提供者--中国房地产指数体系。

Reuters
A worker installs windows Sunday in a building in Hefei, China.
周日，中国合肥一个工人正在安窗户。


China, an engine of global growth, has to do better at explaining this key sector of its economy. Take Shanghai, the country's financial hub and richest city. According to data from the China Real Estate Index System, prices of new apartments in Shanghai have risen by more than 150% in the past five years. That outpaces a 107% increase in wages over the same period—moving home ownership further out of reach for average earners.
中国是全球经济增长的引擎，它能更好地解释这个关键部门对其经济的作用。拿中国的金融中心和最富有的城市上海来做例子。根据中国房地产指数体系数据上海新建房在过去五年中价格已经上涨了150％以上。这超出了工资同比同增长速度的107%，使平均收入者达到居者有其屋的目标更难实现了。
But the official data tell a different story. According to China's NBS, prices for new apartments in Shanghai have climbed 20% over the past five years—well below the increase in wages.
但官方公布的数据却显示另一情形。根据中国国家统计局的数据，上海过去五年新建房的价格增长20%，远低于过去五年工资的增长。
As important, though the trend in both data series is upward, the path mapped out by the private data is more volatile—with bigger ups and downs in the growth rate than in the official data.
重要的是，尽管两个数列的趋势都是上升的，但由私人数据制出的数据波动较大，要比官方数据的增长率有更大的波动起伏。
Why is the difference between those two sets of figures so important? (Full disclosure: I investigate the question in detail in my book "Understanding China's Economic Indicators.") Investment in residential real estate accounts directly for 12% of China's gross domestic product, and more than that when demand for steel, cement, and other construction materials is factored in. China's real-estate boom helps energize the domestic economy and keeps miners from Australia to Brazil flush with cash.
为什么这两组数字之间的区别很重要？（全面披露：我在我的《了解中国经济指数》一书中调查了这个问题）住宅房地产投资直接占中国国内生产总值的12％，对于钢、水泥和其他建筑材料的需求也纳入进去。中国的房地产繁荣有助于振兴国内经济，并不断从澳大利亚到巴西买卖矿业。
House prices are a key leading indicator of changes in policy, sales and investment. Rising prices attract speculators into the market. Entrepreneurs and billionaires descend on Beijing and Shanghai with suitcases of cash, snapping up entire floors of luxury residential developments. Higher sales encourage developers to break ground on more-lavish projects. But if prices rise too fast, the government has to step in to cool the market, speculators move to the sidelines, and developers put down their tools.
房价是政策、销售和投资变化的一个关键领先指标。价格上涨吸引投机者进入市场。企业家和亿万富翁提着装满现金的手提箱来到北京和上海抢购豪华住宅的整个楼层。更高的销售额鼓励开发商往更奢华的项目动工。但如果房价上涨过快，政府就要介入市场降温，鼓励投机者进行副业，开发商放下了他们的工具。

Beijing could be forgiven for a little tardiness in getting up to speed on housing data. The boom that has made developers and speculators rich and left young professionals grasping for the first rung on the real-estate ladder is a recent phenomenon. As recently as 15 years ago, the private property market was almost nonexistent. Home for most workers was employer-provided housing. But with an incipient property bubble threatening to cause economic disorder and social unrest, the government has attempted to bring prices under control, with the latest crackdown kicking off in April 2010.
在熟悉了解住房数据方面北京表现出的一点迟延是可以原谅的。这次房地产繁荣使得开发商和投机者变富，一些年轻的专业人员抓住第一级房地产上升阶梯是一个新现象。在15年前个人地产市场几乎还不存在。大多数工人的房屋是雇主提供的住房。但对于会给经济造成秩序混乱和社会动荡危险的刚开始的房地产泡沫，政府一直试图控制住价格，并于2010年4月开始了最近的打压政策。
Of course, if prices have risen only as fast as the official data suggest, there is no need to worry. With just a slight mismatch between prices and incomes, a brief period with a slower increase in prices will improve affordability. When that happens, the government will be able to loosen its controls, sales will rise, and developers will be powering up their cement mixers—reassuring international markets that the economy is humming along. If the official numbers are also correct that house prices typically move gradually and within a small range, even continued controls by the government are unlikely to result in a sharp correction.
当然如果价格按照官方公布的数据上涨，就没有必要担心。价格和收入之间的轻微不匹配，在一个短暂的时期内价格增长缓慢能够提高支付能力。如果这种情况发生，政府将能够放松对其控制，销售额将上升，开发商将水泥搅拌器再通上电，使经济一路不看好的时候国际市场还能够可靠。如果官方数字也是正确的话，房价通常在一个小范围内逐渐变化，甚至继续由政府控制的情况系也不会导致大幅回调。
But if—as seems more likely—the China Real Estate Index System data are correct and prices are considerably out of whack with income, the government in Beijing and reluctant local officials will have to maintain controls on the sector for a long time, raising the specter of a rough patch for China's economy. Equally worrying, if movements in prices are as volatile as the private data suggest, the chances of a policy misstep leading to a sharp correction are higher.
但是更可能的情况，如果中国房地产指数体系的数据是正确的，价格就相应与收入不一致，北京政府以及当地心不甘心的地方官员就会对该房地产长期控制控制，中国经济亮红灯的幽灵。同样令人担忧，如果价格变动波动的正如私人数据表明的那样，政策方面的失策导致大幅回调的可能性更高。
Despite, or perhaps because of, the importance attached to real estate, there are few areas of China's economy where the official data are less reliable. In 2009, the combination of a slowdown in growth that hit many home buyers in the pocketbook and continued failure by statisticians to report the rapid increase in house prices evident to would-be buyers was too much for public opinion to bear.
也许是因为房地产的重要性，对于对中国经济官方公布的数据也有少部分是不可靠的。 2009年经济增长放缓的组合使很多房屋购买者掏了腰包，而统计人员未报告的房价迅速增长也使很多买家承受太多的舆论观点。
The National Bureau of Statistics' announcement of an increase in average house prices of just 1.5% was met with public skepticism. One Chinese Internet commentator asked: "Can you believe that? Obviously a misplaced decimal point."
国家统计局公布的数据平均房价同比增长仅为1.5％，这也遭到了公众的怀疑。一个中国互联网评论员问：“你信吗？这显然错了一位小数点。”
Outrage over the 2009 data sparked some change. But the new system rolled out in January wasn't much of an improvement. On the plus side, outdated and unrepresentative samples that analysts believe were to blame for problems with the old data were replaced by a system that captures every sale of new property. On the down side, the national average figure—the best guide to the overall state of China's housing sector and a major focus of market attention—was shelved in favor of more detailed city-level data. That differs from practices in the U.S., where the monthly Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index and new-home sales data from the Census Bureau both provide national benchmarks for price changes as well as city or regional breakdowns.
对2009年的数据的愤怒引发了一些变化。然而1月新推出的制度没有多大的改善。分析人士认为，好的一面，问题应归咎于过时和不典型的样本，每一个新售房的旧的数据被替换。不利的一面，作为全国平均数字的最好的指导，中国的住房部门的整体状况和市场的主要注意力集中在有利于更详细的市级数据搁置。这不同于美国的做法，美国是每月将来自人口普查局的标准普尔凯斯-席勒指数和新屋销售数据提供给城市或区域的故障和作为国家基准价格房屋价格的变化。
Adding to the confusion, local officials in China control the flow of high- and low-price property on to the market, affecting the movement of the data. Nicole Wong, China property analyst at CLSA, said when the government cracks down on property speculators, officials withhold permission for developers to bring high-value properties to market—contributing to the appearance of falling prices. When the heat is off, more-expensive developments are allowed back in.
更让人迷惑的是，中国的地方官员控制高和低价格的房地产流动市场，影响数据变化。法里昂证券中国地产分析师黄尼科尔说，当政府打击炒楼时，官员保留给开发商的高价房产进入市场的许可从而使价格下跌。当这股潮流退去的时候，又允许更昂贵的开发重新进入。
Sleight of hand by local officials—moving the house-price index without changing the underlying situation—does little to solve China's housing bubble, or to provide investors and policy makers with an accurate understanding of the sector. If the Chinese government is serious about controlling runaway house prices, the first step should be to provide credible data on exactly how high home prices actually are.
当地官员的花招---不改变根本情况，改变房价指数，这并没有解决中国的房地产泡沫的问题，也没给投资者和决策者关于房产方面更准确的理解。如果中国政府在认真地控制失控的房价，第一步应提供可靠的数据，高房价究竟是多少。

igcaxxm

说好话咱照收，坏话都是帝国主义造谣亡我之心不死~

两怀

房地产宰相，

沐霜

关心去中国的房地产了、、、好事坏事？