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【中文标题】五角大楼新的中国战事计划
【原文标题】The Pentagon's new China war plan
【登载媒体】《沙龙》（Salon）
【来源地址】http://www.salon.com/news/featur ... en_glain/index.html
【译者】rhapsody
【声明】本文供AC/M4使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作。
【译文】
Despite budget woes, the military is preparing for a conflict with our biggest rival -- and we should be worried.
（作者篇前语：）尽管财政拮据，军方却正在为与我们最大对手的冲突做准备——我们应为此感到担忧。
 This summer, despite America’s continuing financial crisis, the Pentagon is effectively considering trading two military quagmires for the possibility of a third. Reducing its commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan as it refocuses on Asia, Washington is not so much withdrawing forces from the Persian Gulf as it is redeploying them for a prospective war with its largest creditor, China.
今夏，尽管美国的金融危机仍在继续，但五角大楼实际上正考虑从两个军事泥潭抽身，转而进入第三个可能成为军事泥潭的地区。在减少伊拉克和阿富汗驻军的同时，华盛顿当局并未大规模地撤出军事力量，而是把注意力重新放到亚洲，重新部署军力应对未来可能发生的战争，对象是其最大的债权国——中国。
According to the defense trade press, Pentagon officials are seeking ways to adapt a concept known as AirSea Battle specifically for China, debunking rote claims from Washington that it has no plans to thwart its emerging Asian rival. A recent article in Inside the Pentagon reported that a small group of U.S. Navy officers known as the China Integration Team "is hard at work applying the lessons of [AirSea Battle] to a potential conflict with China."
根据国防专业媒体的报道，国防部官员正想办法修订被称为“海空一体战”的概念以专门应对中国，这揭穿了华盛顿的死板言辞——当局坚称没有遏制其亚洲新兴对手的计划。《五角大楼内部》近期一篇文章透露，一个由美国海军军官组成的、名为“中国整合团队”的小组，“正努力将（海空一体战的）经验应用到同中国潜在的冲突之中。”
AirSea Battle, developed in the early 1990s and most recently codified in a 2009 Navy-Air Force classified memo, is a vehicle for conforming U.S. military power to address asymmetrical threats in the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf -- code for China and Iran. (This alone raises a crucial point: If the U.S. has had nothing but trouble with asymmetrical warfare for the last 45 years, why should a war with China, or Iran for that matter, be any different?) It complements the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance, a government white paper that precluded the rise of any "peer competitor" that might challenge U.S. dominance worldwide. The Planning Guidance is the Pentagon’s writ for control of what defense planners call "the global commons," a euphemism for the seaways, land bridges and air corridors that are the arteries of international commerce. For a foreign power to challenge this American dominion is to effectively declare war on the United States, and that is exactly what China appears to be doing in the South China Sea, a resource-rich and highly contested waterway in Southeast Asia.
“海空一体战”这一概念成形于1990年代初期，最近时候又被编入2009年海军与空军的机密备忘录，其理念在于调整美国军力以应对西太平洋和波斯湾地区出现的不对称威胁，字里行间指向中国和伊朗。（单是这点就提出了一个关键问题：如果说不对称战事在过去45年里带给美国的都只有麻烦，为何针对中国或伊朗的战事会有所不同？）“海空一体战”对1992年的“国防规划指引”作出了补充；后者是一项政府白皮书，旨在排除任何可能挑战美国在世界范围内支配地位的“同等竞争对手”。 国防规划指引是国防部掌控“全球公共领域”的命令状，控制对象包括海上航道、陆上桥梁和空中走廊等国际通商动脉。任何国家若挑战美国此项支配权，形同对美国宣战；而中国在南中国海这一资源丰富也充满争议的东南亚水域中的行径恰似符合这样的定义。
It was in this spirit that Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Jim Amos, at a dinner hosted by the Center for a New American Security in late May, remarked that the wars in the Persian Gulf were denying Washington the resources it needed to cope with an increasingly assertive China. "We’d like to turn that around," he said. "I don't think we're there to [the extent] we need to be." In his candor, Amos became the latest U.S. military leader to speak about his service’s plans following the Afghanistan drawdown.
五月底“新美国安全中心”举行的一次宴会上，海军陆战队指挥官吉姆·阿莫斯上将表示，波斯湾的战事让美国缺乏所需资源以应付日趋强硬的中国，也是出于同样的思路。“我们想要改变这种局面”，阿莫斯说道，“我不认为我们在那的存在达到了所需（的程度）”。阿莫斯是最近一个针对阿富汗撤军后安排作出表态的美军领导人，而他的表态无疑是直率明确的。
A U.S. mobilization in Asia is well underway, in faith with a spring 2001 Pentagon study called "Asia 2025," which identified China as a "persistent competitor of the United States," bent on "foreign military adventurism." Three years later, the U.S. government went public with a plan that called for a new chain of bases in Central Asia and the Middle East, in part to box in the People’s Republic. Similarly, the nuclear energy cooperation deal signed by the U.S. and India in 2008 was an obvious containment maneuver aimed at Beijing. In late March, press reports detailed a major buildup of American forces in Asia, including increased naval deployments and expansive cooperation with partner countries. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is forging ahead with a multi-year effort to transform Guam into its primary hub in the Pacific, an initiative so vast that John Pike of the Washington, D.C.-based GlobalSecurity.org has speculated that Washington wants to "run the planet from Guam and Diego Garcia by 2015."
美国在亚洲的部署正在展开，依据的是2001年春国防部一项称作“亚洲2025”的研究的精神，该项研究将中国定性为执着于“对外军事冒险主义”的“美国长期竞争者”。三年后，美国政府公布了一个要求在中亚和中东建立一系列新基地的计划，部分目的就在于围堵中国。类似地，2008年美国和印度签订的核能合作协议也是旨在遏制北京当局的明显举动。三月晚些时候，媒体报道了美国军力在亚洲大规模集结的细节，包括增加海军部署以及加大与伙伴国家的合作。与此同时，国防部正力推把关岛打造成未来太平洋主要基地的多年计划。这一计划是如此宏大，以致于位于华盛顿的GlobalSecurity.org网站的约翰·派克预计华盛顿当局是想“到2015年的时候把从关岛到迭戈·加西亚打造成指挥行星的轴线。”
Unlike America’s allies in Asia and Europe, however, China is not about to outsource its national security obligations to a foreign power, particularly when it comes to the South China Sea. There more than ever, and not without reason, Beijing identifies the U.S. not as a strategic partner but as an outright threat. In 2007, when China destroyed one of its weather satellites with a ballistic missile, it served as a warning to Washington after the ramming six years earlier of a U.S. spy plane by a Chinese fighter jet off the coast of Hainan Island. Though the crisis that followed was defused diplomatically, it was interpreted by some in Washington as vindication of the throaty Asia 2025. In fact, the clash followed a dramatic rise in the frequency of U.S. overflights in the area during the twilight of the Clinton years, which triggered a demarche from Beijing that slipped through the cracks of the transition to the Bush administration. The Hainan incident, as affair is known, was the inevitable outcome of a highly intrusive American surveillance regime.
然而中国不像美国在亚洲和欧洲的盟友，准备把自身的国防责任外包给外国势力，尤其是涉及南中国海的时候。在这一区域，北京当局不是将美国看作战略伙伴，而是视为直接威胁，现时比起任何时候都更为坚持这种看法，也不是没有理由。2007年，中国用弹道导弹摧毁本国一颗气象卫星，就是作为对华盛顿当局的一个警告，在中国喷气式战机撞击美国侦察机到海南岛海岸的事件过去六年后。尽管那场危机随后在外交层面得到了缓和，但这被华盛顿当局的一些人用作推动“亚洲2025”的实证。事实上，撞击事件之前，也就是在克林顿任内的末期，美国军机飞跃这一区域领空的频率陡增，致使中国方面采取了措施，而这在权力交接到布什政府期间被忽视了。海南事件，诚如众所周知的那样，是美国具有高度侵入性的监视机制无可避免会造成的结果。
In addition to China, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines all have competing claims on several clusters of South China Sea islands. Rather than intervening with quiet diplomacy to untangle this incendiary thicket, the U.S. has starkly sided against Beijing. In March 2010, when a Chinese official was quoted by Japanese media as identifying the region as a "core interest" of Chinese sovereignty, the White House retaliated by declaring that freedom of maritime navigation is a U.S. "national interest." As it turns out, according to the China scholars Nong Hong and Wenran Jiang, writing in the July 1 edition of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation’s China bulletin, the core interest to which the official referred was “the peaceful resolution” of the disputes in question. Despite this, the White House refuses to climb down. Two weeks ago, three U.S. Navy ships paid call on Vietnam, China’s ancient antagonist, for a weeklong joint exercise at a time of strained relations between Beijing and Hanoi, prompting a formal protest from the Chinese. In Manila last month, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pointedly assured her hosts that the U.S. would honor its mutual defense pact with the Philippines and sell it new weaponry on discounted terms.
除中国以外，越南、文莱、台湾、马来西亚和菲律宾都声称对南中国海的一些岛群拥有主权。美国没有采取息事宁人式的沉默外交干预方式，而是明显站在与中国对立的一边。2010年3月，日本媒体引述一位中国官员称该地区属于中国主权的“核心利益”时，白宫针锋相对地回应道海航自由是美国的“国家利益”。事实上，根据中国学者洪农和姜闻然发表在7月1日出版的《中国简报》（总部位于华盛顿的詹姆斯敦基金会所办刊物）上的文章，该官员提及的核心利益在原话中是指争议问题的“和平解决”。尽管如此，白宫方面拒绝让步。两周前，三艘美国军舰访问了中国长久以来的死敌——越南，参加长达一周的联合演习；当时正是中越两国关系紧张的时候，这引发了中国方面的正式抗议。上月国务卿希拉里在马尼拉向东道国着重保证美国会遵守同菲律宾的共同防御协定，并在折价条件下向其出售新武器。
For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. government has encountered the practical limits of the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance. In its story about AirSea Battle and the China Integration Team, Inside the Pentagon revealed an oblique, if profound insight from Andrew Krepinevich, the highly regarded head of Washington’s Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. China, he said, is clearly jousting for control of the Western Pacific and "we have to decide whether we’re going to compete or not. If we’re not, then we have to be willing to accept the shift in the military balance." Otherwise, "the question is how to compete effectively."
自冷战结束以来，美国政府第一次碰上了1992年国防规划指引的实际瓶颈。《五角大楼内部》关于海空一体战和中国整合团队的报道透露了安德鲁·克雷皮内维奇一番隐晦却又意味深长的话，他是华盛顿智库战略和预算评估中心的主任，备受尊崇。“我们必须决定是否竞争。如果不竞争，我们就必须接受军力平衡发生倾斜的事实。”否则，“问题就是怎样有效地进行竞争。”
Here is a noble appeal for Washington to match its commitments with the resources needed to sustain them, the absence of which has fueled the debt crisis that nearly reduced the United States to a mendicant state. Such are the crippling costs of a defense policy that makes global hegemony a mindless imperative.
这是提请华盛顿当局向其兵力配以维持运转所需资源的庄重请求，而资源的缺乏助长了债务危机，这几乎使美国变成了一个乞讨国度。这就是将全球霸权变成无意识职责的国防政策所带来的灾难性负担。 |
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发表于 2011-8-19 01:29
