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【中文标题】9/11之殇
【原文标题】The Black Hole of 9/11
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】DAVID J. ROTHKOPF
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/29/the_black_hole_of_911?page=0,0
在美国遭受最重大的恐怖袭击十周年之际，我们应当看一看过去十年来世界上发生的10件更加重要的事情。
最近，我不断接到各地记者的电话，要求我为即将到来的911事件十周年纪念日写几篇文章。谈话的核心内容都是一样的：在这个重要转折事件之后，我们都发生了哪些变化？
但是在回答这些问题，以及脑海中反复思量的时候，我不止一次地得出了这样的结论：富有戏剧性的悲壮情绪和英雄效果的911事件的意义，被我们高估了。实际上，当事件刚刚发生的时候，它的意义和后果就已经被高估了。（据布什总统说，他的幕僚长Andrew Card凑过来对着他的耳朵小声说：“美国遭到了攻击。”当然这样的描述没有错误，但是这种措辞就是在表示一场传统意义上的战争和敌人的存在。并且暗示美国整个领土都处于危险之中，这比实际发生的事情扩大了很多。）
实际上，奥萨马本拉登的成功之处就在于精心策划了一场低成本、相对低风险的行动，用几名暴徒引发了人类历史上影响最深远、反应最过激烈的军事行动之一。极为震怒、丧失理智的美国情绪化的大风暴，卷走了数万亿美元和数十万条人命。本拉登的目标是华尔街和华盛顿，目的是摧毁象征美国权力的标志，但他同时在另外一个方面对我们造成了最深的伤害——我们内心的正义。
在谈及911时，我们在某种程度上把它与珍珠港相提并论。那次事件开启了一场世界性的战争，敌人一心想——至少从理论上讲有能力——摧毁美国人的生活方式（而基地组织不过是一群能力有限的极端主义贱民）。我们还说这是文化战争，是世界的分裂。我们穷兵黩武去追杀几千个坏蛋。我们疯了。
现在，我们的心智逐渐恢复。我们从伊拉克撤军，在埋葬了本拉登和他的一批心腹之后，也即将从阿富汗撤军。我们终于看到了这样做的意义，至少在理论上我们是有能力的。接下来的几个星期里，我们将看到铺天盖地的纪录片、编辑们的大制作、对受害者和英雄们的采访，美国的宣传机器将炮制出喧嚣的历史性纪念活动。我要说的是，这已经不能改变10年前的野蛮袭击，也不能抚平这场经历以及它的后果带给人们的内心创伤。我们似乎是想再一次把911当成刻骨铭心的大事件，一个时代的定义。而实际上，这个事件影响最深远的特征就是它让我们分心。这种移心大法让美国和其它一些国家的注意力从我们这个时代中更加重要的事情上转移，它所造成的机会成本是本拉登的胜利，是我们的损失。让我们重回现实世界吧，只有这样才能迎来最终的胜利。
有一个方法可以让我们的历史感回归，问问自己，回首过去十年，世界上有哪些重大的发展意义超过了911事件？未来的历史学家在研究这十年的时候，会把哪些事情的重要性排在911事件、它的操纵者和它引起的后果之前？或许有数十个这样的事情也说不定，下面仅仅是我一时想到的其中10个。
10，美国人对911事件的反应
尽管有些人认为，美国对911事件的过激反应就证明了这个事件的重要意义。但是我们的行动中有如此多的不理智，有如此多与美国历史行为的牵连（例如，曾经入侵伊拉克），因此我们必须把两件事情分开看。实际上，多年来我们在伊拉克内部和周边直接、间接地介入了无数场战争。而且，这并不是一场没有选择的战争，我们在阿布格莱布和关塔那摩触犯了我们国家的道德底限，这是自我毁灭，如果你愿意，也可以称其为另一种恐怖主义。我们对自己的伤害，远远超过对那两个咬了我们一口的罪犯所造成的伤害。我们的反应从好的方面说，让我们终于了解到应该怎样对付恐怖主义（“情报战”和无人机轰炸既残忍又令人悲痛）。但无论如何，它在规模的影响方面都远远超过了引发反应的事件。
9，阿拉伯之春
我们不知道中东和北非在今年这一系列革命将会发展成什么样，但我们知道，这些社会深刻的变化是一种信号，它推翻的政府数量超过了基地组织和美国的能力范围。这些革命产生了深远的社会影响，非极端势力所能及。它更直接地与当地民众对切身利益的关心有关，我们其实有更好的机会实现这个目的，而不是让那些极端教派刽子手继续使用那些古老、过时又无效的手段。美国应当重点关注非政府角色和不均衡力量的发展，但它恰恰忽略了这一点。
8，亚洲势力的转移
这个趋势与排名第一位的大事有关（请继续往下读），但是受其影响的人数和它对全球外交政策的影响，要比阿富汗、巴基斯坦和其它中东地区发生的事情大很多。实际上，所有对亚洲感兴趣的国家之间结盟并建立崭新关系的动力，将会对阿富汗和巴基斯坦的政策产生决定性的影响，因为它围绕的主题是美国与印度握在一起的两只手。世界上最大的两个民主国家之间建立起合作伙伴关系，将产生重要的地区性影响，并且有利于联手遏制恐怖主义、抵御巴基斯坦的内部威胁，同时抗衡中国。然而，这种横跨亚洲的战略转移让更多的国家卷入其中，因为在此期间形成了新的联盟，原有的关系更加牢固。对于中国的崛起、像印度这种新兴势力的出现，以及或许某一天朝鲜半岛的统一，他们一起给予关注、参与和控制。这其中错综复杂，但与中东比起来，它应当对我们外交政策产生更大的影响。中东目前牵扯了我们太多的精力，长远看来不应如此。
7，美国和其它发达国家经济低迷
911发生之前，日本的经济崩溃就兆示出这样的趋势，911之后，其发展更加迅猛。美国经历了第一个就业岗位数量零增长、平均收入水平下降的十年，欧洲经济也纷纷崩溃，尤其是南欧。二战后世界经济支柱纷纷倒塌，很明显，各国的地缘政治战略需要重新调整。进入一个处处受限的时代之后，超级势力必须采取不同的合作方式，彻底结束布什时代错误的单边主义政策。
6，社交媒介的发明
哪个更重要：摧毁世贸大厦、杀死几千无辜的平民，还是前所未有地把5亿人连接起来（像Facebook那样）？在瓦齐里斯坦（巴基斯坦西部地区）的山洞中传递纸条，还是在开罗塔利尔广场进行推特革命？这完全是不能相提并论的。
5，手机和手持电子设备激增
就像社交媒介横空出世一样，过去十年中的科技大事件是前所未有的、难以置信的、颠覆世界移动电话的普及。1991年，911事件发生的10年前，全球有1600万手机用户，今天这个数字猛增到60亿。2011年全球的短信发送数量将达到8万亿条。在未来的3到4年，会有更多的人使用手机而不是电脑来登录互联网。这个增长趋势在发展中国家更为明显。今天，手机照相机比其它所有类型的照相机加起来还要多。每个人都相互联通，每个人都是见证者，每个人都是全球信息网络的来源，每个人都是联盟成员、暴徒和选民。
4，2008年经济崩溃
2007年10月9日，道琼斯工业平均指数从14164点顶峰跌落到来年3月份的6469点，跌幅达54％。“恢复”过程花了17个月（未来趋势如何尚不明朗）。在2006年达到顶峰的美国房地产市场直线下落，一些专家预测恐怕未来若干年也无法达到高峰期的数字。数十万亿美元的流失让数亿人重回贫困生活环境，养老账户严重亏空，数十亿人的生活遭受影响。国家和公司对事件的控制能力微乎其微。经济危机还造成了政治和国家政策方面的影响——从重新考虑国家政策重点到全球对“美国资本主义”态度的转变——911与此相比不值一提。
3，欧元区危机和2011年到2012年的解体
不相信第4点吗？继续读下去吧。发展国家经济的衰退、2008年的经济危机、欧洲政府的过度借贷，再加上对银行体系的松懈管制（当然还有各个国家的具体问题，比如西班牙没有吸取美国房地产危机的教训）引发了足以让欧盟解体、欧元消失的大危机。即使这两件事都没有发生，那也会让世界经济失控到2008年经济危机的程度。如果真是这样，全球本已摇摇欲坠的经济将遭受致命打击。欧盟这个试验品在过去几十年中，让内部冲突和混乱的这片大陆得以和平地发展。如果它真的解体，那么绝对是超过911的大事件。
2，全球气候谈判不了了之
尽管俯拾皆是的证据显示，人为原因造成的气候变暖速度在人类历史上前所未有；尽管科学界一致认为各类生命，以及沿海生活的数十亿人口面临着切实的危机；尽管整个星球都面临迫在眉睫的威胁，世界的领导人却对此不屑一顾。如果全球平均气温在这个世纪再升高1度或3度，911事件相比起来仅算得上是地球生命性质变化的一个小插曲了。它的影响远远大于911事件，以及其引发的后续事件的危害。
1，中国和其它金砖国家的崛起
全球变暖的问题之所以没有被排在第一位，是因为我们暂时还没有看到它的全部威力。但与其相似的轮廓——这个星球上的经济增长和政治权力——越来越受到21世纪的“新兴力量”的影响，代表国家是中国、印度、巴西和其它国家。当然，他们已经不是新面孔了，中国和印度在上帝创世的时候就是经济大国，直到19世纪中期。在2001年9月11日，他们还被当作是遥远未来的参与者。过去十年见证了他们的成长，他们现在是世界经济的引擎。他们将决定2011年是否有哪个市场会崩溃；美国和欧洲能否借到钱来医治病怏怏的本国经济；世界各国能否就温室气体排放达成一致意见；我们是否真的有能力控制大规模杀伤性武器扩散；以及未来的国际秩序是什么样子的。金砖国家在发展，美国在全神贯注地看本拉登的幻灯片。现在，美国的未来就取决于美国人什么时候才能关注真正重要的问题。
那么，所有这些都说明911是不重要的吗？绝非如此。它是美国人生活中的意义非凡的一天，是我们对自身的脆弱、对威胁的性质、对世界真正力量看法的转折点。它让我们重新审视对我们国家的性质、我们的盟友、我们的军事力量和我们世界观的各种假设。这个事件，以及它引发的后续行动让我们付出了恐怖的生命代价——袭击中的受害者、士兵的家庭、中东战争牺牲者和他们的家庭。它改变了美国，让我们看到了自身的不足，让我们有机会反省自己。在它面前，我们曾经是那么的无能为力，但是又在伟大美利坚人的榜样下感召勇敢地站起来，终于，我们学到了很多。然而，最重要的一课是，我们作为一个国家在面临重大挑战的时候，需要在更加广阔的时代背景和更深层次的利益角度来考虑我们的策略。我们不能让单一事件左右我们的观点，就像一个历史黑洞那样扭曲周围的时间和事情本质。我们应当把911交还给历史，让历史告诉我们它是什么，不是什么，为什么重要，为什么它仅仅是过去十年中无数伟大事件中的一个。
原文：
As we assess the legacy of the 10th anniversary of America's seminal terrorist attack, it's worth looking at 10 events from the past decade that have actually been more important.
Recently, I've started to get calls from reporters doing pieces on the upcoming 10th anniversary of 9/11. The thrust of the conversations is the same: How were we changed by that watershed moment?
But in responding to their questions and mulling the question in my head, I keep coming back to the same conclusion: 9/11, for all its tragic and heroic drama, is an easy event to overestimate. Indeed, we have been overestimating its significance since almost the moment it happened. (According to President George W. Bush, his chief of staff, Andrew Card, leaned forward to whisper the news of the attack in his ear and said, "America is under attack." Although factually accurate, the statement was in the language of traditional wars with traditional enemies and implied that the United States as a nation was somehow at risk in ways much broader than was actually the case.)
In fact, the success of Osama bin Laden was in masterminding a low-cost, comparatively low-risk action by a handful of thugs that produced one of the most profound overreactions in military history. Trillions of dollars were expended and hundreds of thousands of lives lost in the emotion-fueled maelstrom unleashed by a shaken and clearly disoriented America. Bin Laden aimed for Wall Street and Washington, seeking to strike a blow against symbols of American power, but in so doing he also hit us where it would hurt the most -- right in our sense of perspective.
We spoke of 9/11 as though it were somehow equivalent to Pearl Harbor, the beginning of a global war against enemies bent on, and at least theoretically capable of, destroying the American way of life (unlike al Qaeda, a ragtag band of extremists with limited punch). We spoke of cultural wars and a divided world. We reorganized our entire security establishment to go after a few thousand bad guys. We went mad.
And now, as we are recovering our senses, withdrawing from Iraq, and soon starting to exit Afghanistan, having buried bin Laden and hosts of his henchmen, we are beginning to be able to see this. At least in theory we can. For the next couple of weeks, we will witness documentary after editorial mega-feature, interviews with victims and heroes, the American legend machine producing historical bumpf at full blast. That is not, by the way, to diminish the brutal blows struck 10 years ago or the deeply felt human experiences associated with it and its aftermath. Rather it is to say that once again we will seek to frame 9/11 as a great event, the definer of an era, when in fact, its greatest defining characteristic was that of a distraction -- The Great Distraction -- that drew America's focus and that of many in the world from the greater issues of our time. That distraction and the opportunity costs associated with it were bin Laden's triumph and our loss -- and our ultimate victory will come as we get a grip back on reality.
One way to demonstrate that restoration of historical sensibility comes if we ask ourselves, looking back over the past 10 years, what other developments took place that exceed 9/11 in lasting importance? What events of the past decade will historians write of that will have them looking past or beyond the attack, its masterminds, or its immediate response? There are scores, I suspect. Here are just 10 that come to me off the top of my head.
10. The American Response to 9/11
While some might consider America's overwrought response to 9/11 to be proof of its significance, so much of that response was irrational and more directly related to issues in America's past (the invasion of Iraq, for example) that it needs to be seen as a thing apart. Indeed, we had been directly and indirectly fighting wars in and around Iraq for years. Further, that war was a "war of choice," just as the violation of our national principles at Abu Ghraib or Guantánamo was purely self-destructive, auto-terrorism if you will. We did more damage to ourselves than did the two-bit criminals who baited us. In any event, our response -- which extends on the positive side to our coming to better understand how to combat terrorism (the "intelligence war" and drone attacks bin Laden ended up bitterly lamenting) -- was both vastly bigger in scope and in consequence than the events that triggered it.
9. The Arab Spring
We have no idea how the string of revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa this year is going to turn out. But we do know that they are a sign of deep change that has toppled more governments in the region than either al Qaeda or the United States could. These revolutions are having a broader social impact than extremism and are linked more directly to the self-interest of the masses in the region -- which ought to have us handicapping it with better odds than we'd give fundamentalist murderers practicing their ancient, outmoded, and ineffective trade. The United States was right to focus on the rise of nonstate actors and asymmetric power -- it was just focusing on the wrong sources of that power.
8. The Rebalancing of Asia
This trend is related to the No. 1 story of the decade (keep reading), but it touches more lives and will be of far greater impact to global foreign policy than anything that happens in Afghanistan or Pakistan, or anywhere in the Middle East. In fact, the intensive efforts to forge new alliances and open new relationships among all the international players with interests in Asia will probably play a decisive role in AfPak as it encompasses developments like the U.S. embrace of India. That evolving partnership between the world's two largest democracies will have important regional consequences vis-à-vis the battle against terrorism and containing threats from within Pakistan while at the same time creating an important counterbalance to China. These strategic shifts across Asia touch far more countries than those, however, as they involve creating new alliances and deepened relationships to address, engage with, and at the same time, manage the consequences of China's rise -- as well as that of other emerging powers such as India and, someday soon, perhaps a reunified Korea. It's complicated, but it's the big leagues of foreign policy compared with the Middle East, which is attention-grabbing but over the long term strictly second division.
7. The Stagnation of the U.S. and Other Developed-World Economies
This trend started a few years before 9/11 with Japan's economic meltdown. But it really gained momentum in the 2000s, when the United States experienced its first-ever decade of zero net new job creation and declining median incomes. Europe also spluttered, especially in the south -- and this weakening of the pillars of the post-World War II world clearly fed a reordering of geopolitics. Entering an age of limitations is forcing big powers to work together differently and has put the kibosh on the momentary and misguided unilateralism of the Bush era in the United States.
6. The Invention of Social Media
What's more important? Knocking down the World Trade Center and killing several thousand innocents or linking half a billion people together as never before (as Facebook did)? Passing notes from cave to cave in Waziristan or fueling a Twitter revolution in Cairo's Tahrir Square? It's not even close.
5. The Proliferation of Cell Phones and Hand-Held Computing Devices
As big as the advent of social media is, the big technology story of the past decade is the unprecedented, mind-boggling, world-reordering spread of cell phones. In 1991, 10 years before 9/11, there were 16 million cell-phone subscribers worldwide. Today, we are rapidly approaching 6 billion cell-phone subscribers. Eight trillion text messages will be sent in 2011. Within three or four years, more people will access the Internet via phone than via computer. And growth is fastest in the emerging world. There are more cell phone cameras today than all other forms of camera added together. Everyone is connected. Everyone is a witness. Everyone is part of a global news network, an instant coalition, a mob, an electorate.
4. The Crash of 2008
The Dow Jones industrial average fell from a peak of 14,164 on Oct. 9, 2007, to 6,469 the following March, a decline of 54 percent. It took 17 months to "recover." (The jury is still out on what's next.) The U.S. housing market, which peaked in 2006, has plummeted virtually unabated ever since, and some experts expect that those past highs may be unattainable for years, if ever. The resulting tens of trillions of dollars in losses sent hundreds of millions of people deeper into poverty, crushed retirement accounts, impacted the well-being of billions of people, and called into question the viability of countries and companies in ways that cannot yet be calculated. It also had political and policy implications -- from reconsidering national priorities to changing global views toward "American capitalism" -- that will dwarf those associated with 9/11.
3. The Eurozone Crisis and the Crash of 2011-2012
Don't believe point No. 4? Well, keep watching. The weakening caused by the decline of developed-world economies, the crash of 2008, reckless overborrowing by European governments, and lax management of the banking sector (as well as localized national problems such as the failure by the Spanish to learn the lessons of the U.S. housing crisis) has led to a crisis that could undo the European Union, blow up the euro, and -- even if neither of those things happen -- send the world's economy into another tailspin that could recall or exceed 2008's crash. If it does, it will have an even more devastating impact on already weakened economies worldwide; and if it undoes the European experiment, which has helped ensure decades of peace on a continent previously riven by conflict, well, then it will again on totally different grounds easily trump 9/11.
2. The Failure to Address Global Warming
While evidence piled up that man-made warming was accelerating in ways that outstripped all models and all precedent in human history, while the scientific community united in its agreement that the crisis would be existential for many forms of life and coastal communities where billions of people live, while the entire planet was threatened as never before, the leaders of the world were otherwise engaged. If global temperatures rise another degree or three this century, 9/11 will be seen as a comparative footnote to an event that could remake the nature of life on Earth and lead to a toll many, many times greater than either 9/11 or the wars it triggered.
1. The Rise of China and the Other BRICs
The only reason global warming is not No. 1 is that we haven't seen its full effects yet. But its contours -- and that of economic growth and political power on the planet -- will be shaped increasingly by the influence of the "new" powers of the 21st century, led by China, India, Brazil, and others. Of course, they're not new: China and India were the world's largest economies from the dawn of time until almost the mid-19th century. But still, on September 11, 2001, they were considered players to watch -- in the distant future. The past decade has seen them emerge to the point that they are now the engines of growth that will determine whether a market crash of 2011 occurs, whether the United States and Europe can borrow to fund their ailing economies, whether the world will reach an agreement to manage greenhouse gas emissions, whether we will truly contain the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and what the real future of international institutions and agreements will look like. The BRICs rose while the United States was distracted by bin Laden's sideshow; now, America's future will depend on how quickly Americans can refocus on what's really important.
So, does all this mean 9/11 was not important? Of course not. It was a significant day in the life of America, a turning point in our view of our vulnerabilities and of the nature of threats and real power in the world. It led us to question many of our assumptions about the nature of our country, our alliances, our military capabilities, and our worldview. It and its aftermath have had a horrific human cost -- on victims of the attack, on the families of our soldiers, and on the many victims and their families of the wars we subsequently conducted in the Middle East. It has changed America, taught us our limitations, and forced us to question ourselves. We have been diminished by it, raised up by the noble examples of individual Americans -- and in the end we have learned much from it. Foremost among those lessons, however, must be that we as a nation need to summon the discipline in times of great national challenges to frame events in the broader context of time and our larger interests. We cannot allow single isolated events to warp our view of all around them, like historical black holes twisting the fabric of adjacent time and events. It is important to our process of consigning 9/11 to history to understand both what it was and what it was not, why it was important and why it was just one of many even greater stories of the past decade.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-9-1 12:59
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发表于 2011-9-1 13:26
