【中文标题】中国富翁时代来临挫败周边邻居
【原文标题】China in Time of Millionaires Frustrates Neighbor: William Pesek
【登载媒体】彭博社
【来源地址】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/china-in-time-of-millionaires-frustrates-neighbor-william-pesek.html
【译 者】杨靖旼 godstear4
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
Asia’s biggest rivalry is looking more and more one-sided. There’s no competing with China’s 9.5 percent growth as the U.S. sheds jobs, Europe unravels and Japan’s deflation deepens.
Even though Asia’s other rising superpower, India, is zooming along at 7.7 percent, try getting anyone to pay much attention.
Spend a few days in Mumbai and the conversation is all China, China, China. How can we compete? In what way is India’s economy superior? Why does our impressive post-Lehman-Brothers performance get no attention? Then head to China’s business center, Shanghai, and see if India even comes up. In fact, many Chinese businesspeople resent the suggestion that their economy has anything in common with India’s.
China may regret this oversight for two reasons. One, China’s winning streak probably will run into structural hurdles in the next five years. Two, for all their many differences, China and India have more challenges in common than Beijing may want to admit.
No matter how much the media, corporate glitterati and financial intelligentsia scrutinize China, we don’t know if it can beat the system, so to speak. No industrializing nation has ever avoided a financial crisis. Not one.
Common Challenges
For all its smarts, $3 trillion of currency reserves and firm control over the economy, Beijing must contain inflation, reduce pollution, shift away from exports and avoid social unrest as millions of people flock to the cites from the countryside. Can China grow almost 10 percent year after year without a hitch? The odds don’t favor it given the worsening state of the global economy.
Here, it’s worth noting the challenges India and China share, and there are many. They include huge and growing gaps between rich and poor, corruption, asset bubbles, the risk that piles of loans will go bad if world markets crash anew, regional disparities, environmental degradation, huge appetites for resources, sex inequalities that mean boys outnumber girls and angst over their place in the world.
Caveats abound, of course. Few would say China’s corruption is as endemic as India’s, though China’s vulnerability to a Japan-style bad-debt crisis far exceeds India’s. The angst factor, too, requires nuance. Indians are perturbed that their rapid growth and democratic institutions don’t get more kudos globally. Chinese want a bigger say in global affairs but resent the developed world demanding too much from a developing nation.
Whither ‘Chindia’?
The commonalities have revived the buzz about “Chindia,” or the idea that as much as China and India might compete, they may well complement each other. China and India are the most populous nations, nuclear powers and the two fastest-growing major economies. China’s is already bigger than Japan’s and India’s may be only a few years away from topping Japan on a purchasing-power-parity basis.
China has a huge head start when it comes to the roads, bridges, ports and power systems needed to raise living standards, and it receives the bulk of Asia’s direct investment. India has done better in creating a genuine economy with globally competitive companies, innovative products and world- class entrepreneurs. Imagine if they worked together?
Yet the geopolitical rivalry is growing. Look no further than tensions related to global resource access, griping among Indians that China’s trade practices are undermining their manufacturing industries or Beijing’s suspicions about New Delhi’s close ties to Washington.
Follow the Money
If ever there were a time for corporate executives and investors to follow the money, it’s now. At the moment, China clearly is the stronger capital magnet. By 2015, China’s millionaires may account for about half of the rich people across 10 major economies in Asia, excluding Japan, and hold more than half of the wealth, according to a study by Julius Baer Group and CLSA Asia Pacific Markets.
It’s not that simple, though. A new RAND Corp. report looks ahead to 2025 and finds that as China and India grow in prominence, each has certain advantages, but neither is primed to have a clear, across-the-board competitive edge over the other. And India’s advantages -- a growing working-age population, and open and flexible political and economic systems -- will be good things to have during the next 15 or so years.
China’s plusses over India are nothing to sneeze at. China graduates 70 percent more engineers annually than does India -- 600,000 compared with 350,000, RAND’s researchers say. Its vast investments in science and technology could dwarf India’s much- celebrated software industry.
Yet India may be moving into a period of major reforms as the anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare reverberates through the nation. Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. economist Chetan Ahya isn’t exaggerating when he calls India the most promising structural growth story anywhere today. What if recent events in India compel the government to get its act together?
The thing is, no one knows. That goes, too, for whether China has struck upon some new formula for economic growth and can avoid a crash. All we can say for sure is that what we think we know about Asia today might be turned on its head in coming years. China versus India could be a case in point.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
亚洲最大的一场竞争的局势现在看来已经越来越一边倒，美国就业凋敝，欧洲走向崩溃，以及日本的紧缩加剧，中国却以9.5%的增长率独占鳌头。 即使亚洲另一个崛起的超级大国——印度，获得7.7%的增长率，正试图获得更多的关注。 在孟买呆上几天，你会发现谈论话题的都是中国，中国，中国。我们如何去竞争？印度的经济优势在哪里？为什么我们在雷曼兄弟破产后所有本应备受瞩目表现失去了关注度？接着，我们去上海，这个中国的经济中心，看看有没有印度的身影。事实上，许多中国商人厌烦别人中国经济与印度有相近的说法。 中国可能会为他们忽视这点而后悔，原因有二。其一，中国经济的连胜记录会在下一个5年内遇到结构性的障碍。其二，中国政府必须承认在所面临的越来越多的挑战上，中印存在共同点。 可以这么说，无论媒体，企业高层还是金融知识分子如何审视中国，我们仍然不知道它否能战胜这个固有系统问题：没有正进行工业化的国家可以逃过金融危机。一个都没有。 共同的挑战 尽管中国有着卓越的才能，3万亿美元的外汇储备和对经济的严厉控制，它仍然必须想方设法的来控制通胀，降低污染，从出口型贸易转型，以及避免由于数以万计的人口从乡村涌向城市所带来的社会不稳定因素。 中国有可能顺利地的一直以将近10%的速度继续增长？鉴于全球经济形势恶化的现状这种可能性不大。 所以，印度和中国共同面临的挑战还是值得一提的，并且应该受到更多重视。他们包括日益扩大的贫富差距，腐败问题，资产泡沫，如果世界市场再次崩溃坏账积压造成的风险，不同地区发展差距，坏境恶化，对资源的高需求，性别歧视——意味着男性的数量会多过女性而导致他们在世界上处于焦虑位置。 当然，需要注意的事项比比皆是。几乎没人会说中国的腐败问题会和印度一样普遍，尽管中国对日本式的坏账债务危机的脆弱性远超过印度。当然这一令人焦虑的因素也需要细细甄别。印度对于他们因为他们尽管有着的快速经济增长和民主体制而却无法获得全球性的赞誉而感到烦恼。中国人想要在国际事务中更多的发言权，但痛恨发达国家对作为发展中国家的中国提出太多要求。 “中印国”去向何处？ 中印之间的共性又使“中印国”的说法再次兴起，或者说是这种观点：尽管中印之间会有竞争，但他们也可能会有很多互补。中国和印度都是人口大国，都有核武器，且是增长最快的经济体。中国的经济总量已经超过日本，而印度以购买力平价计算，也会在几年之后超过日本。 在用于提高生活水准的道路、桥梁、港口和电力系统等基础设施建设方面，中国都先声夺人，而且中国接受了亚洲大规模直接的投资。印度在创立一个更明智的经济方面更胜一筹，它有着具有全球竞争力的公司，高新技术产品和世界级的企业家。想象一下中国和印度携手并进将是什么光景？ 尽管地缘冲突正在加剧，但两个国家都需要将眼光放得更长远些，而不仅是拘泥于为获取全球资源而导致的矛盾，印度对对华贸易破坏了自己制造业的抱怨，以及中国政府对印度政府向美国靠拢的的猜忌。 逐利 如果只给企业高管和投资者一次机会去逐利，那就应该是现在。当下，很明显中国是个的超强资本吸纳器。根据瑞士宝盛集团和里昂证券亚太区市场的研究，到2015年，中国的百万富翁会占除去日本的亚洲10个主要经济体的一半，并且持有过半的财富。 然而，那并不是很容易。兰德公司的一项新报告指出，到2025年，中国与印度的经济增长会趋近，各具优势，但都没有一个对对方的全面的压倒性竞争优势。印度的优势——适合工作年龄的人口在增长，以及开放、灵活的政治经济体制——会为印度在今后15年乃至更长时间里带来优势。 而中国对印度的优势亦不可小看。兰德公司的研究者表示中国每年毕业的工程师要比印度多70%，60万对35万。这项对科技领域的巨大投资，可以将印度引以为傲的软件行业比下去。 而且，印度会随着由Anna Hazare领导的反腐败运动响遍全国而进入一个重大变革时期。摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司的经济学家Chetan Ahya称印度是现今所有地区中最有前途实现结构增长时，并没有夸张。如果现在发生在印度的事件迫使政府整合它的行为将会如何？ 答案没人知道。如果中国可以将新的经济增长方式注入经济之中避免崩溃也同样。我们可以肯定的是，我们了解的今日亚洲可能会在接下来的时间里引领世界。中国与印度的交锋会是关键。 （William Pesek是《彭博社》的专栏作家，文章仅代表作者个人观点） 网友评论：
- I bought a scarf and started a conversation with the seller in Barcelona Las Ramblas...as a retired university SBDC director I thought her talk about it is India not China winning the cheap retail sales as something to think about..a few months later on visiting Shangahi and China I was sure she had to be mis informed considering all the 129 storied bldgs being built and all the construction cranes...but upon further thought..I am not so sure....a politician or a corporate ceo will seldom if ever tell the truth....talk to a small business owner on a one to one and find the truth......Rick H...Bowling green KY USA
- 我在巴塞罗那的Las Ramblas买围巾的时候和卖家聊了一会，作为一个已退休的大学中小企业发展中心主管我认为她提到的印度廉价商品零售上超过中国的情况值得思考。几个月后我访问中国上海在那里看到好多繁忙的起重机和129个在建购物大厦我才知道她搞错了，至于未来会怎样我还不确定。。。毕竟你别指望从一个政治家或者公司ceo嘴里听到实话，要想知道真相的话还不如和小生意人面对面谈一谈
- Actually, lot of people (including many experts on China) will say that China's corruption is as endemic as India - it is just that India has a free media which is obsessed with corruption (which may turn out to be a good thing in the long run). I agree with rest of the analysis.
事实上好多人包括许多中国专家都说中国的腐败问题和印度一样普遍，这是由于印度的新闻更自由对腐败问题更为关注，而这从长远来说对印度是一件好事。文章其他的分析我都同意
- “Spend a few days in Mumbai and the conversation is all China, China, China. How can we compete? In what way is India’s economy superior? Why does our impressive post-Lehman-Brothers performance get no attention? Then head to China’s business center, Shanghai, and see if India even comes up. In fact, many Chinese businesspeople resent the suggestion that their economy has anything in common with India’s.” How enthusiastic are business people in New York, London and Tokyo about doing business in India? Why William Pesek single out Shanghai alone? Is he trying to incite Indian resentment against China? Don’t worry when there is good money to be made in India, Chinese businessmen will be among the first to be there. India still needs another 5-10 years for her potential to be reality. So it is important for India to focus on domestic development first and do not get bogged down in resources wasting foreign adventures like the US. Peaceful development is as important for India as for China. This is the most important commonality between the two countries.
- 纽约伦敦东京的商人对于到印度做生意又有多少兴趣呢？WP为什么把上海单拿出来说?他是想拿对中国不满的印度人当枪来黑中国吗？别操心到什么时候才在印度才能赚到钱了，中国商人会是赚到第一桶金的。印度起码还要5到10年才能实现他的潜力。所以对于印度来说发展内需才是当务之急，同时要注意别被外国（像美国）的金融投机活动拖入泥潭。和平发展对于印度对中国来说一样重要，这是这两个国家之间最重要共同点
- It is indeed an interesting situation - you go to India, and everyone compares India with China and opine on why and how India cansurpass China. You go to Beijing and folks think you are silly comparing China and India in the same breath. If you want to compare, compare China with the developed nations.
- 这种情况确实有趣——你到印度去发现每个人都在把印度和中国相比并且讨论印度如何才能超过中国；你到北京去人们会觉得傻子才拿中国和印度比较，要比就和发达国家比
- I am amazed as to how western media uses western values to measure the success of one nation over another. Haven't we learned from these long cycles of financial booms and busts that " the pursuit of happiness" through social tranquility and harmony and achieving a more equitable society, with a fairer distribution of wealth, is by far a better and more sustainable outcome.India and China are two cases of almost identical backgrounds, and western media influence is exerting the wrong impact on the direction
for both societies. Do we really want to create two new USA's in Asia. Haven't we seen the rising gaps between the rich and the poor in the USA as the pursuit of self-interest and the escalating prejudices among races and religions destroy the fabric of society.Who cares if China is developing economically faster than India or that India will have the ultimate edge with its younger population. Where is the motivation to achieve environmental sustainability, social equality and ultimately happiness in society.Watching Chinese young professionals draw hefty mortgages to buy a small apartments that will enslave them to their banks for the rest of their lives trying to pay it off, and the result is a very unhappy younger generation in China, working overtime with little time to enjoy life. If this is development that western media promotes for China and India, then for sure they will blind-foldedly follow the USA and Europe in a breath-taking financial journey that benefits the lucky few and creates an unsustainable social disharmony among their population.Let China and India grow "slowly" and let them adopt their old and traditional values that survived for centuries. Let China and India develop to the world unique societies despite their political and structural ideologies. Perhaps the USA and Europe will find the Chinese or Indian models have few things to learn from.
西方媒体拿西方价值观作为依据来衡量一个国家比另一个国家要成功的做法令我震惊。难道我们还没从那些盛极而衰的经济周期循环里吸取足够的教训吗？通过提高社会透明度和谐度达到社会平等财富公平分配才是实现社会可持续幸福之王道印度和中国有着及其相似的背景，西方媒体却对两国都进行了歪曲和误导。我们真的想要在亚洲制造两个新的美利坚吗？难道我们没有看到追求个人利益导致美国贫富鸿沟越来越大种族宗教偏见破坏社会稳定的前车之鉴？
谁关心中国经济发展是不是比印度快了还是印度年轻人口增长是否到达极限了?真正需要在意的问题是实现环境可持续发展社会平等乃至终极幸福。看看现在中国的年轻人为了买一套小公寓不得不背着沉重的抵押贷款在余生为了还贷成为银行的奴隶，导致整个年轻一代们都十分不幸，工作超时无暇享受。如果这就是西方媒体向中国和印度提倡的发展，那么他们将来只会盲目的跟着欧美坐只会惠及极少数人却导致社会不可持续发展和混乱的经济过山车。
让中国和印度慢慢成长，让他们保持他们自己的已经存在了几个世纪的旧传统价值观，让中国和印度发展具有独特的政治阶层意识形态的社会体系。
也许欧美会发现中国和印度模式有值得学习之处。
- 谁说印度没人关注？！我看P先生一直在写这种总能产生广泛影响的中印之争文章
- Excellent analysis of the China versus India "competition". One major element of history has however, been overlooked by thewriter. This is the role played by China whenever it has been in the ascendant in the past. A strong ruler at Beijing has always demanded tribute or at least acknowledgment of suzerainty from China's neighbors. This led to neighbors plotting with China's internal power brokers to checkmate the "Emperor" at Beijing. Today, China is already flexing its muscles and every neighbor (bar none) worries about its intentions. The quarrel over resources beneath the South China Sea, border tensions with India, aggressive trade practices with every nation.... expose the true face of China. This is why all of China's neighbors demand that the US remain in Asia and cooperate in shoring up regional defense against a hegemonistic China.India on the other hand is a pacifist nation. It has never invaded any country through its long history nor attempted to browbeat any of its neighbors. On the contrary,
China is wooing all of India's neighbors some of whom have some economic or historical political issue or the other with India, through the offer of generous aid so as to alienate them from India, despite the fact that all of India's neighbors share the same culture, ethnically belong to the same race and have political and legal systems based on British traditions. China is feared but India is not.China's success despite being a Communist dictatorship is due to its ability to prevent the revival of a personality cult (by changing its Party Chairman and Prime Minister every 5 years), ensuring merit in selection of its leaders, collective but speedy decision making and above all exceptionally rapid implementation. It has also re positioned itself as a champion of Chinese nationalism and Confucianism hoping that this camouflage will make its authoritarian rule more acceptable to its people. Other Communist nations (like North Korea, Cuba and even Vietnam) have failed precisely because they have not followed the Chinese system of dictatorship. Yet, given its rapidly ageing population, hostility of its neighbors, pressure to keep delivering economic growth rates in excess of 9% per year to prevent social unrest and inability of exports to support this rate of growth, China will face mounting problems. India's democracy has stood the test of time and has proven its ability to hold this immensely diverse nation together. Nehru's misguided socialistic zeal lasting 40 years set the nation back economically while saddling it with a gargantuan bureaucracy characterized by incompetence, waste and corruption. India's economic growth really started in 1991 when socialism was buried and Indian entrepreneurs set free to pursue their own visions. Even though major economic reforms are yet to be initiated, India has grown rapidly into a $ 1.6 trillion economy in 2010. Individual initiative remains the main source of
Indian economic growth unlike China where the State plays a major role in orchestrating investment and has direct control over the actions of its people. In the longer term, it will be India which will show a more sustainable and equitable growth than China. Social tensions too are better accommodated in democratic India. The bottom line is India has only one goal, that of lifting its 350 million poor (out of 1.2 billion) from poverty and to live in harmony with its neighbors. China on the other hand believes that its leaders are endowed with the ability to know what is good for its people and that its people will trade civil and political liberties for authoritarianism so long as their living standards keep rising, their nationalistic urges are satisfied
and its neighbors (nay the entire world) bows to the might of China !
这是篇关于中印竞争的优秀分析文章，但是作者忽视了一个主要的历史因素。在过去世界上具有支配地位的中国一直发挥着重要作用，强势的中央集权领导人一直统治者邻国或者至少要求他们承认中国的宗主国地位。这也导致邻国与中国内部的篡权者勾结围攻在中央的皇帝。今天，中国又在蠢蠢欲动
而所有的邻国（无一例外）对其意图充满疑惧。从南中国海底资源的争端到中印边界紧张局势乃至和每一个国家的倾掠性贸易都暴露了中国的真面目。这也是所有的中国邻国都希望美国留在亚洲在地区冲突中对其支持来对抗中国霸权主义的原因
而印度则是一个和平主义国家。在他的漫长历史中他从不曾倾略或者恐吓其邻国。相反，中国却在勾结所有的印度邻国，这些国家和印度要么有经济竞争关系要么有政治历史冲突或者别的矛盾。尽管中国慷慨的援助这些国家以结盟疏远印度，但所有的印度邻国都有着共同的文化，种族以及建立在不列颠传统之上的政治法律体系的事实不容回避。所以害怕的是中国而不是印度
中国作为一个共产主义政权依然能取得成功是由于他们通过每5年换一届主席和总理制止了个人崇拜的复辟，在选举领导人的过程中确保了利益，决策集思广益而果断高效，以及最重要的异常快速的执行力。另外中国也重塑了民族主义儒家主义使他的集权统治经过这些伪装能够更加为他的人民所接受。其他共产主义国家（像北朝鲜古巴甚至越南）都失败了是因为他们没有模仿中国的统治方式。然而，人口加速老化，与邻国关系紧张，为维稳必须保持9%以上经济增长的巨大压力，以及出口放缓无法继续为这样的增长率并提供动力，中国依然面临着许多问题印度的民主已经经历了时间的考验而被证明能够支持这个及其民族多样化的国家。尼赫鲁错误的社会主义狂热将这个国家的经济发展耽误了40年，现在依然遗留庞大官僚主义引起的竞争力低下贪污浪费等问题。印度的经济增长是从社会主义被颠覆印度企业家被解放允许追求个人理想的1991年才真正开始。虽然重大经济改革仍未开始印度2010年的经济依然快速达到了1.6万亿美元。和中国由国家通过组织投资发挥主要作用却抑制人民个人主观能动性带动经济增长不同，个人创造力依然是印度经济增长的主要动力长远来看，印度的发展将比中国更加平衡和有可持续性，民主的印度媒体也将更好地调解社会冲突。归根结底，印度万事俱备只欠东风——帮助12亿人口中的3.5亿贫苦人口脱贫使他们与邻里和谐生活。然而在中国领导人们总是自负地以为自己知道人民的福祉在哪，而只要生活标准不断提高民族主义感得到满足邻国向中国俯首称臣他们的人民就愿意放弃自由接受专制统治。
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狗仔卡
楼主
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-9-10 14:25
