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本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-9-15 13:05 编辑
【中文标题】日本对华乐观的结束
【原文标题】The End of Japan's China Optimism
【登载媒体】华尔街日报
【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576556141247309006.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
【译 者】yangfuguang
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
Yoshihiko Noda took power in Tokyo last week because of Japan's desperate domestic situation. Its economy has been battered by the March 11 triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. Its political system seems paralyzed, with Mr. Noda becoming the sixth prime minister in five years. It is aging and losing competitiveness. And a general ennui is creeping through society. Like his predecessors, Mr. Noda will stand or fall on how well he manages to juggle these daunting challenges.
上周在日本严峻的国内形式下野田佳彦当选为新首相。日本本国经济在3月11号地震、海啸以及核电站危机三重打击之后受到重创。其政治体制似乎已经瘫痪，而野田也成为日本五年来第六任首相。日本在老化丧失竞争力，而在国民心中，也已经产生了一种厌倦情绪。像之前几任首相那样，野田佳彦可能会处理好这些棘手问题，也有可能处理不好。
Yet Mr. Noda will not be only a domestic- and economic-policy leader. In his first days, perhaps as much attention has been paid to Mr. Noda's foreign policy views and criticisms of China. Mr. Noda recently wrote an essay in the prestigious Bungei Shunju periodical, in which he called Chinese foreign policy "high-handed" and stated that its rapid military buildup was of "great concern not only for Japan but the entire region." Moreover, his new foreign minister, 47-year old Koichiro Gemba, has caused waves by similarly warning China to "play fair" in global political and economic policy.
野田佳彦先生不仅是国内及经济政策的领袖。在他就职第一天，野田的外交政策及对中国的批评受到最多关注。野田最近在《文艺春秋》（日本极富盛名的杂志）上发表了一篇文章，在文章中，野田宣称中国的外交政策是“目空一切的”，并且其迅速的军力建设“不仅在日本，而且在全世界引起重大关注”。更甚者，他的外相47岁的松浦晃一郎已经发出类似的警告，要求中国在全球政治和经济政策中“保持公平”。
These attitudes mark the final nail in the coffin of China engagement pursued by both the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and the former majority Liberal Democratic Party. Since China's economic growth spurt began in the 1980s, Japan has sought to tread a careful line between forging closer ties with Beijing and maintaining its tight alliance relationship with the United States. Like Washington, Tokyo has sought to benefit from China's economic growth while hedging against its rising military strength and political influence.
这种态度是将民主党和自民党的对华政策钉在棺材中的最后一根钉子。自从中国经济在上世纪八十年代开始增长以来，日本一直寻求在中国和美国之间的一种平衡，即努力与中国建立更密切的关系，但又要维持和美国的同盟关系。和美国一样，日本想从中国经济增长中获取利益，又担心中国日渐增加的军力和政治影响力。One obvious reason for the change in tone from Tokyo is that the past year has strained Sino-Japanese ties. Most damaging was the face-off over the Senkaku Islands last fall, in which the Japanese Coast Guard arrested the captain of a Chinese fishing vessel in the disputed waters. An almost total rupture in diplomatic relations and tit-for-tat retaliation dragged on for weeks. China's unveiling of a fifth-generation stealth fighter-bomber and the recent launching of its first aircraft carrier have further ruffled Japanese feathers, as Beijing continues its march toward building the most powerful Asian military.
日本政策发生改变的一个重要原因是过去几年中日关系日趋紧张。最危险的对峙来自于去年秋天的中国尖阁列岛争端，当时日海上警卫队在争议海域逮捕了中国渔船长。为此中日关系几乎完全破裂，双方展开对抗。中国公布第五代战斗轰炸机，以及最近的航母试航都触动了日本，中国继续向建设亚洲第一的军事力量发展。Getty Images
Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine angers Asian neighbors and isolates Japan.（日本的靖国神社刺激着亚洲邻国并且使其自身孤立）The DPJ was once expected to dramatically improve relations with China. One of its most powerful founders, the now disgraced Ichiro Ozawa, had led large delegations, sometimes numbering in the hundreds, to China, openly proclaiming better ties. Yukio Hatoyama, the first DPJ premier, also proposed an East Asian Community, in which Japan, China and South Korea would take the lead. Such outreach seemed not only natural but far-sighted, given that China is Japan's most important trading partner.
民主党曾经被寄予厚望，可以显著改善对华关系。它的创立者之一就是目前被贬的小泽一郎，他曾经带领庞大的代表团去中国，公开宣称对华关系的改善 。自民党第一任首相鸠山由纪夫曾经提出过东亚共同体的概念，这其中日本、中国和韩国处于领导地位。这种扩大交流不仅仅是出于自然，而且也是目光远大的，因为中国是日本的第一贸易伙伴。Few in Japan today talk in such optimistic terms about China. None want a clash of any kind, nor a more confrontational relationship, but neither are Japanese willing to be forced into accommodating Chinese desires. Mirroring the change in American attitudes, there is rather a growing pessimism that China will willingly adopt international norms of behavior as it becomes stronger. Its repeated claims over all of the South China Sea and ostentatious sailing of a small flotilla between Japanese islands all add to a deepening sense of unease in Tokyo. Defense planners have openly started talking about focusing on Japan's "southwestern wall," the string of islands stretching from Kyushu to Taiwan, and Japanese politicians muse about closer relations with Australia and India, for example.
在日本，这种对华的乐观情绪消失了。没有人想要任何形式的冲突，或者是升级的对抗，但是日本也不愿被迫听从中国。这也反映了美国的态度变化，中国在强大以后将能否按国际规范出牌也引起了人们的担忧。中国不断重申整个南海问题，以及不断从日本近海巡航的小型舰队都深深加重了这种不安。防御计划开始公开谈论关注日本的“西南壁垒”，这是一串从九州岛伸展至台湾的岛屿，日本官员对澳大利亚及印度的密切关系表示关心。Meanwhile, the bedrock of Japan's security remains the alliance with the United States. Mr. Noda also is believed to be a strong supporter of the alliance, and has been quoted as saying that Japan should do away with its infamous Article 9 of the Constitution that denies the country the right to have military forces for "war or the settlement of international disputes."
同时，日本安全的基石依旧是美日同盟。野田佳彦也是极力支持这一联盟的，据说他曾表示日本应该废除宪法第九条，关于禁止日本不能以军事方法解决“国际争端或者战争”的规定。This, along with his controversial statement that he does not believe Japan's Class A war criminals of World War II were guilty of war crimes, has raised hackles in China. Strong editorials in Chinese newspapers have warned Mr. Noda not to visit Yasukuni Shrine, where the spirits of those war criminals are said to be enshrined, and to accept Chinese claims over the Senkaku Islands. Beijing appears as worried about Mr. Noda's views as of the possibility of Tokyo and Washington reviving their alliance, which has been rocked the past two years by disputes over rebasing U.S. forces inside Japan.
这种说法以及他曾表示他不相信日本甲级战犯对二战罪行负责已经激怒了中国方面。中国的报纸措辞严厉的警告野田不要拜访靖国神社，这里供奉着日本甲级战犯；而且要接受中国对尖阁列岛的要求。北京似乎担心野田的观点会使得美日同盟重现活力，它们这种关系已经由于美国在日的军事基地变动而动摇了。All this means that China and Japan are headed into another rough patch. With Japan weakened by domestic problems, it is even warier about Chinese moves to reduce Tokyo's influence in Asia or its maneuvering room in East Asian waters. The heated rhetoric will likely die down after a while, but the behind-the-scenes jockeying for position and the wary looks toward one another will not cease.
所有这些都表明中日将走向更加艰难的道路。随着日本国内问题带来的衰退，中国将进一步减少日本对亚洲的影响力及日本在东亚水域的演习空间。言辞的交锋在今后一段时间可能会停滞，但是背后的争夺以及对彼此想法的改变将不会消失。For Mr. Noda, this is a headache he does not need. Any mishandling of relations with China will result in criticism by opposition lawmakers, and perhaps from those in his own party as well. Japan needs every trade partner it can get now, and while both Mr. Noda and Mr. Gemba are believed to support Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade negotiations, China will remain crucial to Japanese economic health for decades to come.
对于野田来说，这是他不需要的头疼问题。任何对华政策的失误将会招致反对派，甚至是党内人士的批评，。日本急需可以抓住的贸易伙伴，同时野田及Gemba先生都支持日本参与环太平洋自由贸易协定，中国在未来数十年对日本经济都很重要。More generally, Mr. Noda cannot afford to isolate Japan any further. Not only China, but South Korea has registered its objections to his views on Japanese war criminals. On the other side of the ledger, Washington is weary of dealing with revolving Japanese leaders and growing impatient to see movement on relocating U.S. forces in Japan. Mr. Noda will have to delicately balance all these pressures. Otherwise he will risk leaving Japan even more distant from its neighbors and friends than before.
更重要的是，野田无法承受日本的孤立。不仅是中国，韩国也反对野田的对于战犯的看法。另一方面，美国对日本领导人的再次更换感到厌烦，对于在日的美军基地变换也没有了耐心。否则，野田将会面对即远离邻居又疏远朋友的危险。
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发表于 2011-9-15 13:19
