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【中文标题】中国商业网站的泡沫即将破灭？
【原文标题】Is China's dotcom boom a bubble about to burst?
【登载媒体】BBC
【来源地址】http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14880350
【译 者】心儿飞
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
Jingdong Mall's bold plans could signal trouble for China's internet start-ups 资料图：京东大胆的计划可以看出中国互联网启动的危险信号。
Chinese online retailer Jingdong Mall, which sells everything from shavers to steamers to smartphones, is not short on ambition. 中国在线零售商京东商城出售从剃须刀、蒸锅到智能手机等所有商品，而且其并不缺乏雄心壮志。
Also known as 360buy.com, it is seeking to raise up to $5bn (£3bn) by listing shares in New York next year in what would be the largest ever US internet initial public offering (IPO).
If the deal materialises, it would be far larger than the listing of Google, which raised a paltry $1.9bn in comparison.
京东商城（网址是360buy.com）正在募集高达50亿美元的资金准备明年在美国纽约上市，这将是美国有史以来首次公开募股最大的互联网公司。如果交易实现的话，这将远远超过谷歌。相比之下，谷歌19亿美元的集资显得微不足道。
The daring move is raising eyebrows and sparking talk that China's dot.com boom could be turning into an unsustainable bubble.
京东大胆的举动让人愁眉紧锁，引起了激烈的讨论：此举可能成为中国网络公司从繁荣到不可持续泡沫的转折点。
It also comes as investors have grown wary of Chinese firms listed in the US following a number of accounting scandals.
伴随着中国成熟、谨慎的投资者而来的还有在美国上市的中国公司的一系列审计丑闻。
The company is reported to be meeting with banks in Beijing this week to pick which financial institution will handle the bumper deal.
据报道，京东将于本周在北京会见各大银行来挑选适于投保的金融机构。
Credentials
可以相信的证明
At first glance, Jingdong Mall has some strong credentials.
Founded in 2004, the company is reported to have more than 25 million users and more than 50 million daily page views, and generates 300,000 orders per day.
乍一看，京东商城有些实力。根据报告，京东成立于2004年，用户超过2500万，每日网页浏览量超过5000万，每天有30万个订单。
It has already raised a whopping $1.5bn from a group of high-profile strategic investors including Digital Sky Technologies, which invested in Facebook and discount buying website Groupon in the US.
京东已经从一些有声望的战略投资者那里募集到了资金，包括在美国投资了Facebook和团购网站Groupon的数字天空技术公司（Digital Sky Technologies）。
Members of the Walton family, who founded Wal-Mart, and Robin Li, the boss of Chinese internet darling Baidu, also ploughed money into the company.
创立了沃尔玛的沃尔顿家族和中国互联网宠儿百度的老板李彦宏也都成为京东的投资人。
China's answer to Amazon is also operating in a market rich with promise.
同样，中国对亚马逊的答案也适用于充满希望的市场。
According to Shanghai-based technology research firm Redtech Advisors, the number of Chinese shopping online will near 200 million by the end of 2011, nearly double that of 2008.
And Forrester Research estimates that total web sales in China are likely to triple to almost $160bn in 2015 from about $50bn in 2010. 研究咨询机构上海睿析科技(RedTech Advisors)调查显示，到2011年底中国网购人数接近2亿，是2008年的近两倍。而福雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）估计，中国网络销售总量从2010年的500亿美元到2015年可能翻三番，约1600亿美元。
Challenges
挑战
But Jingdong Mall also has some major challenges to contend with.
但是，京东商场也面临着一些挑战。
New York has not turned out to be a sure bet for many of the company's peers.
Several Chinese internet companies have sold shares to US investors in recent months, and while their IPOs in many cases drew strong demand, their share prices have since lost ground dramatically.
E-commerce site DangDang, which has a similar business model to Jingdong Mall and listed in December, now trades well below its listing price.
Social networking site Renren and online video site Youku have also fared badly, and online dating site Jiayuan and Youtube rival Tudou both slid on their market debuts.
越来越多的同行证明，纽约也不可靠。近几个月以来，一些中国互联网公司在纽约上市。一般情况下首次公开募股表现出强劲的势头，但股价随之急剧下跌。与京东有着相似商业模式的电子商务网站当当网去年12月在纽约上市，现在股价远低于其上市价格；社交网站人人网和在线视频网站优酷表现也不好，网上交友网站世纪佳缘和Youtube的竞争对手土豆网在首次亮相后也相继下滑。
Scandals
丑闻
Chinese shoppers are increasingly shunning stores and buying online
资料图：中国顾客越来越少到实体店购买，相比之下都倾向在线购买。
A spate of accounting scandals at US-listed Chinese companies has also made investors wary.
在美国上市的中国公司相继发生审计丑闻，也让投资者更为警惕。
Since March, 30 US-listed Chinese firms have had their auditors resign and 20 have been delisted while regulators examine accounting and disclosure issues.
自3月份以来，已有30家在美国上市的中国公司的审计辞职，在监管机构检查账户和披露问题之后，其中的20家公司已经被摘牌。
Concern over corporate governance has eroded confidence in other Chinese companies listed in New York, even those not accused of any wrongdoing.
对公司管理的关注已经削弱了在纽约上市的其他中国公司，甚至是那些从没任何不当行为的公司。
US research firm Renaissance Capital calculates that if an investor had bought shares in every Chinese IPO between 2008 and June 2011, he or she would have made a loss of 24%. This compares with a 25% gain on the average non-Chinese IPO.
根据美国市场研究公司复兴资本（Renaissance Capital）计算，如果投资者在2008到2011年之间买了中国任何一个IPO（首次公开募股），他将会损失24%；相比之下，其他国家的IPO平均会有25%的涨幅。
But Jingdong Mall is unlikely to look to list elsewhere. According to Renaissance Capital, US investors are viewed as being keener to invest in riskier assets such as internet stocks.
但是京东商城未必会寻找别处上市。复兴资本认为，美国投资者更热衷于投资较高风险的行业，如网络股。
And to list in Hong Kong, the other favoured destination for Chinese firms looking to go public, companies must be profitable.
Loss-making Jingdong does not expect to make money until the second half of next year.
如果在香港（中国企业青睐的另一个公开募集地）上市，公司必须是赢利的。但在明年下半年之前，正处于亏损状态的京东并不指望赚钱。
"Slow growing Chinese IPOs head to Hong Kong; growth companies embark for New York," Renaissance Capital said in a recent report.
复兴资本在报告中说：“缓慢成长的中国公司到香港，而成长型企业却来到纽约。”
Bubble deflating?
泡沫破灭？
360buy.com has caught the attention of high-profile investors like Robin Li, who founded search engine Baidu
资料图：京东商城已引起百度的创始人李彦宏的注意。
Doug Young, a Chinese media and technology expert who writes a column for Chinese-language daily China Business News, says there are signs the internet bubble in China may soon deflate.
《第一财经日报》专栏的资深财经记者阳歌说，有迹象表明中国的互联网泡沫可能会很快破灭。
Mr Young says the market is too crowded, with billions of dollars in new investment entering the market in the last year chasing consumer demand that, while growing, is still too small to support so many new players.
阳歌说，市场已经过于拥挤，去年为了满足消费需求，有数十亿美元涌入市场，而且还在不断增长，市场太小已不能承受如此多的新投资者。
Early signs of distress include big layoffs at group buying site Gaopeng, in which Groupon has a stake, and online clothing store Vancl.
市场窘迫的早期迹象就是团购网站高朋的大量裁员，尽管Groupon和网上服装店凡客都有它的股权。
Mr Young says that Jingdong Mall's big-name investors will be pushing for an IPO before the bubble truly bursts and wipes out the billions they have pumped into the company.
阳歌认为，京东商城的大牌投资者会推动IPO的发行，但一旦泡沫真正破灭之后，他们投资的数十亿美元都将化为乌有。
As recently as May, the company's chief executive Liu Qiandong said that they would hold off until 2013 or later to float, when they were expected to be in profit.
最近5月，京东总裁刘强东表示他们将推迟到2013年活更晚一些实现盈利。
"They are trying to [do an] IPO in a negative market," he says.
"But the alternative is that they don't raise the money they need and they run out of cash when the bubble bursts."
“他们尝试（或正在）做在不利的市场条件下首次公开募股，”阳歌说，“但是另一种方式是他们不必募股需要的钱，用光现金，坐等泡沫破裂。”
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