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本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-9-15 15:33 编辑
【中文标题】中国会是下一个日本或是墨西哥吗？
【原文标题】China's Lessons From Mexico and Japan
【登载媒体】华尔街日报
【来源地址】 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904353504576566521762785388.html
【译 者】codewei 小明啊
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
Is China the next Japan or the next Mexico?
One worry for investors is that China will go the same way as Japan. Like Japan once did, China is playing a game of rapid catch-up with the U.S., with growth in output driven by high levels of investment and exports. As also happened in Japan, that growth model has led to the buildup of stress points in the domestic economy: a bubble in the real-estate sector and bad loans in the banks. 中国会是下一个日本或是墨西哥吗？
对投资者而言最担心的是中国会重蹈日本的覆辙。像日本曾做过的，中国正处于依靠高增长率拉动高投资和出口来赶超美国的博弈之中。这样的情况同样曾发生于日本，这种经济增长模式导致将着力点放到国内经济上，由此带来房地产泡沫和银行的坏账问题。 The crucial difference is the level of development. Taking 1990 as the date when Japan's growth faltered, gross domestic product per capita, measured in purchasing-power-parity terms, had already reached more than 90% of the level in the U.S. Capacity to grow by catching up was all but exhausted. The real-estate bubble burst when Japan's urbanization rate was above 60%. In an already predominantly urban society, fundamental demand wasn't strong enough to pick up the pieces. 最关键的差别是发展的层次。以1990年为例，日本的经济增长减缓，人均GDP购买力水平已经超过美国水平的90%，但是日本经济已经疲软，城市化水平超过60%，房地产泡沫破裂。在一个以城市化为基础的社会，基本需求不够强大到来收拾留下的残局问题。 In 2009, China's GDP per capita was 18% of that in the U.S., and the urbanization rate had just touched 50%. The contrast is clear. Significant scope to grow by catching up to the world economic leader remains. If the ghosts towns that loom large in the bear case against China are a genuine problem, continued urbanization means fundamental demand should remain strong enough for China to grow through it at some point. A Japan-style lost decade doesn't appear to be in China's immediate future. A more realistic threat is that China is the next Mexico. Mexico grew through exporting low-value-added goods to the U.S, without paying too much attention to niceties like improving human capital and developing an efficient financial system. But as lower-cost competitors entered the world economy, a weak education system and inefficient allocation of capital started to act as constraints on growth. China took export market share and growth stalled. Mexico's GDP per capita languishes at 28% of that of the U.S., a lower level than in the early 1980s. 中国的人均GDP在2009年时是美国的18%，城市化速度刚刚达到50%。这种对比是很明显的。 在赶超世界经济领先国家上，我们还有很大的发展空间。如果城镇的魅影在中国所要承担的问题中显现，那么持续的城市化就意味着基本需求必须保持足够强大以让中国的增长度过这道关。日本模式中“失去的十年”不会出现在中国不远的将来。 更现实的威胁是中国会是下一个墨西哥。墨西哥的增长是依靠出口低附加值的产品到美国，但却没有将注意力集中到例如提高人力资本和发展一个高效的金融体系的细节问题上。但是以低成本的竞争对手身份进入世界经济，墨西哥的教育体系较弱，资本效力配置低下，这些问题已经限制其经济增长。中国占据市场份额，增长停滞。墨西哥的人均GDP达到美国的28%时也开始一蹶不振，处于比80年代早期更低的水平。 Bloomberg News Reform of the financial system has fallen by the wayside in China. Above, Chinese flags fly on boats in the Bohai New Area port zone of Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China. Here, China might have more to worry about. Wages in the low-skill manufacturing sector are rising fast. On their current trajectory, they will double in the next five years. Low-skill jobs have already started to migrate elsewhere and will continue to do so. Public spending on education, at 3% of GDP in 2009, compares unfavorably to an average of 5% in the grouping of upper-middle-income countries to which China aspires. Reform of the financial system has fallen by the wayside as banks continue to funnel savings to low-yielding state-sponsored projects. To be sure, China's record of economic management is much stronger than Mexico's. And the government talks a good game about the importance of reform. But words have so far not been matched by action. In August this year, a move to bulldoze schools that provided education to the children of migrant workers in Beijing seemed emblematic of policy makers' priorities. With education part of the key to avoiding the middle-income trap, it is bulldozed schools, rather than ghost towns of empty apartments, that are the bigger threat to China's development. 中国的金融体制改革已经被甩在一边。中国的旗帜在河北沧州这片渤海新区港口飘扬。 中国可能更加忧虑。低技能制造业的工人工资快速上涨。以目前的迹象，在下个五年会翻一番。低技能的工作已经开始并会持续向其他地区转移。2009年教育的公共支出占GDP的3%，相比与中国所期待的中上等国家收入平均支出5%还有差距。金融体制的改革就被银行持续的给国家资助的低回报率的项目贷出存款而放置一边。 的确中国的经济管理记录要比墨西哥强得多。政府在谈到改革时擅长于博弈。但语言和行动不相符。今年的8月，强制学校为打工子弟提供教育成为中国政府政策制定者的首要任务。以教育作为关键部分来避免中等收入的陷阱，只是强制学校而非处理城市化的空白区，而这是对中国发展更大的威胁。
网友评论： 译者：小明啊
Stephen Borsher: Whatever China will or will not become, it will take a long time. The USA took only 400 years(actually 320 from it's consolidation) to collapse' but it was a bubble itself, same as the bubbles that killed it. China has much longer history, which I think might mimic that of the USSR more than it does any other country. It will not make the same mistakes that we did, especially after it ends up owning much of US. But when it does get too large, the most logical next step id for it to break up into smaller and more manageable pieces. The USSR did that without proper planning and it ripped the country apart, forcing it into near destitution. I don;t see China making any of those mistakes. Japan and Mexico are right out as possible templates, but China might learn a lot from Canada. Stephen Borsher：无论中国是否会成为下一个日本或墨西哥，这都要需要很长的时间。美国达到今天这样的地步只用了400年（从内战结束之后算起事实上是320年），形成泡沫，并且破灭。中国的历史悠久，我认为中国可以效颦前苏联，应该不会再犯我们所犯的错误，说不定还可以在美国完蛋后，接手一部分。但是问题是国家太大了，就需要分解成比较小的区片进行管理。苏联当初这么做了，但是没有一个合适的计划，导致它把国家分成区块后，却使自己接近赤贫。我没有看到中国犯过这些错误。日本和墨西哥的确可以当做一个发展模板来看待，但是中国很有可能会学加拿大。- Scott Davis:I wouldn't call the US a bubble. It's sheer natural capital and human capital is the reason for its success.
回楼上，我不认为美国处于泡沫中，而它的成功的原因完全是因为自然资本和人力资源。
- One problem that many people seem to believe is that they think Beijing is all powerful. They think that with the whip of a wand, Beijing can curb China's declining labor force, fix China's screwed up property bubble, fix China's countless non-performing loans, fix a growing stratification in regional wealth, fix China's growing desertification.
- 有一个问题,许多人似乎相信,北京拥有所有的力量。他们认为用魔杖这么一点，,北京就能遏制中国劳动力日益减少的趋势，,搞定中国的房地产泡沫,解决无数的不良贷款、使财富持续增长，,解决区域间分异现象,还有中国蔓延的沙漠化现象。
- It simply can't.China, like Japan, is a bubble. Beijing recognizes it, that's why they're taking such drastic measures to curb all these instabilities. But Beijing tied its hands back during its mega-stimulus where they dished out insane levels of credit.
- 这可不简单
中国,像日本一样，也是一个泡沫。北京发现了这一点,这就是为什么他们正在采取这种极端的措施,以减少这一切的不稳定性……
- I mean, if you include the debt from China's SOE's, then China's debt makes the US debt look like a cake-walk.
- 我的意思是,如果你有来自中国的国有企业债务,那么中国的债务使美国债务看起来像个步态比赛。
Stephen Borsher：Well then, "let them eat cake"; theirs and ours. 那么，让他们吃蛋糕去吧，中国的，还有我们的。
- And, "I wouldn't call the US a bubble. It's sheer natural capital and human capital is the reason for its success." Is or was; that is the question. IMO, stick a fork in US; we are as done as Rome. I think we are about experience the financial version of land grab imperialism
- “我不认为美国处于泡沫中，而它的成功的原因完全是因为自然资本和人力资源。”这句话，是现在还是过去式？这是个问题。在我看来，在美国脸上，可以贴个叉叉了。我们就像罗马。
Jun Jing:“failure to focus on education...” You can accuse China of many things, but education is definitely not one of them. No other people pay more attention to education than the Chinese. This is from personal experience. “教育事业没搞好……”你可以指责中国任何事情，但是不能指责中国的教育问题。没有其他国家像中国一样为教育投入那么多。这个观点来自我个人的经历Scott Davis:Yes, Chinese/Asian-Americans pay attention to education.Chinese in China barely have the opportunity to obtain such an education. And even for those who do, there aren't even enough middle/upper class jobs available.
What's ironic is that back in the 1990's China began spurring higher education through large-scale subsidization. But there's simply not enough high level jobs in China, so these educated people's are unemployed. As we all know, an unemployed, educated population is a magnet fordissidence. - 是的，不管是中国人还是美籍亚裔，都为教育投入很多。但是在中国的中国人几乎没有机会去获得这样一个教育。甚至对他们而言，不管是谁去做，都还没有足够的中/上层阶级职位
讽刺的是，从1990年开始，中国通过大规模的资金投入刺激高等教育的发展。但是因为缺少足够高端的职业，这些受过高等教育的人不得不失业。
On a side-note, one has to mention that China has yet to provide a internationally competitive University. The best they have is U of Beijing, but even my local university (UCI) is ranked higher than that on nearly all scales (even the one composed by a Chinese firm) - 这在侧面说明，中国没有一个具有国际竞争力的大学。他们最好的大学是北京大学，但是就算是我老家的大学（加州大学尔湾分校）在几乎所有方面的排名上都比北大要高，（即使它包含一家中国公司）
Paul Shang:It is useless to compare education because the quality of education is difficult to measure. Does more money spent on education mean better educated graduates? but if these graduates can not find jobs, does it mean the education have failed? Having "internationally competitive university" in China, as Scott Davis argued, is also meaningless too. Who defines an university to be competitve? we have seen many reports of ranking top universities and they are located predominately in U.S. and Europe. Who conducted the survey? How do they measure? if they are measured by the research papers published in the western journals, no wonder Chinese professors have few in there. so go figure! 楼上，这种比较是无意义的，因为对于教育质量的衡量是非常复杂的。而花在教育上的钱越多，就意味着毕业生的素质越高么？难道因为毕业生找不到好工作，就归咎于教育是失败的么？像Scott Davis说那样“中国没有具有国际竞争力的大学”，这样的担忧同样是无意义的。谁能定义一所大学是否具有国际竞争力？有很多在排名报告中名列前茅的大学，我们看到他们都是位于美国和欧洲。那么是谁来执行这个排名？谁来衡量这些？如果他们是通过论文在西方刊物上的发表来衡量这一些。那无疑，中国的教授的文章会很少出现在这些杂志上吧？所以，大家自己想想看吧……Brain Scott：We will continue to exploit China, just like we did Mexico and Japan, until their labor and goods are too expensive and then we will move on to the next host. It's already happening. Africa is calling Brain Scott：我们将继续开拓中国市场,就像我们对墨西哥和日本所做的,直到他们的劳动力和商品价格变贵,然后我们将目标移动到下一个地区。这其实已经发生了，那就是非洲。- Dove Hollinger:house is a much bigger commodity and generate 60% profit margin while cost is zero. nonpareil with anything else and it can make everything looks extremely pretty. 2 years in 3.5% housing loan with no property tax is the biggest incentive to housing bubble we are seeing. housing loan at current 7% mean housing price is going to drop 30~50%, with no relieve of loan interest as too much money already printed. it is the end of an era.
- 在中国，房子是一种较大的商品，而且成本为0，却产生60%的利润。其他东西没法和它比，而且它让一切东西都看起来超级不错。2年前3.5%住房贷款，还没有财产税是当时对购房者最大的激励,我们正在目睹房市泡沫目前7%的房屋贷款意味着房价会下跌30 ~ 50%,贷款利息没有减少，太多的钞票已经印刷好。这是一个时代的终结。
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发表于 2011-9-15 16:09
