【大西洋月刊110920】中国拯救欧洲对自由市场利好

lilyma06

【中文标题】中国拯救欧洲对自由市场利好

【原文标题】Chinese Bail-Out of Europe Could Be Good News for Free Trade

【登载媒体】大西洋月刊

【来源地址】

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/chinese-bailout-of-europe-could-be-good-news-for-free-trade/245411/

【译    者】godstear4u

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。

【译    文】

China is reportedly weighing a purchase of Italian debt, which would give it greater leverage in the global economy
据报道中国正在考虑购买意大利国债，这将大大增强其在全球经济中的影响力

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi welcomes Wang Gang, the vice-chairman of China's main government advisory body, during a meeting at Chigi Palace in Rome / Reuters
意大利总理贝鲁斯科尼在基吉宫会见中国国务院副总理王岐山

It's not hard to understand why Americans might be nervous about news that China is considering buying up Italian debt, a potential first step toward bailing out the troubled European Union economies. There are immediate concerns, such as China's demand that Europe give up some the trade regulations that keep it protected from Chinese undercutting. And the story hits on a number of American anxieties, stated and unstated: that China's debt holdings give it a tool to use against us; the decline of the U.S. as the world's leader; the rise of China to displace us; Western financial weakness; the glimmer of doubt that maybe we got it wrong with the Western system of free markets and liberal democracy, that China got it right and will soon be leading the way.
中国考虑购买意大利国债，这有可能是把欧盟经济体拉出泥潭的第一步，因此我们也就不难理解为何美国会对这条新闻感到紧张。这件事有几个关注点，例如中国要求欧盟取消为保护当地市场而采取的反倾销贸易规则。这一事件严重挑动了美国人的神经，以下事实不言自明：中国所持有的巨额债务使它有了对付我们的武器；作为世界老大的美国正在衰落；中国将会崛起取代我们；西方金融财政有缺陷；我们对自由市场和民主自由构成的西方体系开始产生怀疑；中国走对了路并将一路领先

But China, by buying up debt from Italy or elsewhere in the EU, might actually be doing far more to promote the Western-style free market democracy than to subvert it. An investment in Italian debt is literally an investment in the Italian style of governance, after all. More than that, it's an investment within a larger international system of free markets, global cooperative institutions, and inter-governmental organizations. Despite all the talk of the decline of the West and Western-style system, that fact that China -- the world's largest authoritarian state economy -- is even weighing sovereignty fund investments and World Trade Organization regulations is a nice little victory for Adam Smith, Woodrow Wilson, and other architects of the liberal international system.
但是中国通过从意大利或者欧洲其他国家买进国债将促进西方的自由市场民主体制而不是颠覆他们。毕竟，对意大利国债的投资实际上是对意大利式政体的投资。更重要的是，这项投资同时也是对更广阔的国际自由市场全球化经济体系政府间国际组织的投资。尽管大家都在讨论西方和西方体系正在衰弱，中国作为这个世界上最大的专制经济体也正在考虑主权基金投资和世贸组织规则，这一事实可以说是亚当•斯密，伍德罗•威尔逊等国际自由市体系场建立者的一次小小胜利。

China, of course, will likely continue to free-ride on the international system in the short term, manipulating currency flows as it depends on consumers in developed, free market democracies to buy its goods. And why shouldn't it? Its incentives are to maximize its benefit from the ever-freer global trade regimes (essential to the success of its incredible manufacturing output) while minimizing its costs to that system, getting around foreign trade safeguards as best it can. But the more successful that China becomes within the liberal international system of trade and cooperation, the greater stake it has in the continued freedom and cooperation of that system. Holding European debt might give China more leverage to cheat within the international system, but also reduces China's incentive to do so.
当然，中国短期内很有可能继续在这个国际体系内搭顺风车，通过向自由民主的发达国家消费者们出售商品操纵通货流动来赚钱。这简直是必然的。通过各种激励措施使他从这个有史以来最自由的全球贸易体制中获利最大化，而这种体制对其制造业出口的巨大成功有着至关重要的作用。同时利用外国的贸易保护措施使其在这个体系中的成本最小化。但是随着中国在全球自由贸易与合作体系中越来越成功，对这个体系的资本支持也越来越多。持有欧债将给中国在这个国际体系中更多的影响力去招摇撞骗，但同时也降低他这样做的动机。

Imagine your friend, an avowed communist who runs her worker's commune to the letter of Marxist teaching, decides to start investing in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, explaining she needs the money to expand her commune and to buy more pamphlets to spread the Marxist gospel. Is her business plan doing more in the service of communism or capitalism? It's an imperfect and incomplete analogy -- did I mention your friend's commune has over 1.3 billion residents? and that her investments make up nine percent of the entire Merc exchange? -- but the point is that her participation in the free market economy reinforces and strengthens it, even if she turns around uses her profit to support a smaller communist system within the larger capitalist one.
想象一下这样的景象：如果你的一位一直在给工人组建公社的教授，公认的共产主义朋友有一天突然决定投资芝加哥商品交易所，理由是需要更多的钱来买小册子传播马克思主义真理。她的商业计划更多的是在资本主义还是共产主义体系内呢？这是个不太完美不太完全的类比。哦，对了，我提到了你的共产主义朋友有13亿居民吗？而且它的投资占了整个芝加哥商品交易所交易额的9%。但问题是他对自由市场经济的参与进一步加强和壮大了这个市场体系，虽然反过来在这个大的资本主义体系中他用其获利来支持一个小的共产主义体系。

The process of coming to understand global economic cooperation as within a country's self-interest doesn't happen overnight. The world's developed economies didn't introduce the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade -- the first real step toward a liberal system of international trade that promoted cooperation over protectionism -- until 1947. Before then, the world viewed trade much the same way that China does today: competitive, with each state best served by protecting their own industries and seeking to undermine one another's. It took centuries for the leading governments to decide that everyone was better off if they dropped the inefficient protections. Even the GATT, as revolutionary as it was in shifting the global economic system to one of cooperation, was only a partial step; the World Trade Organization wouldn't come until 1995, and its latest round of tariff-cutting agreements has been stalled for a decade.
一个国家以自身利益出发，并逐渐全球经济合作的过程不是一蹴而就的。世界发达经济体直到1947年才建立了《关税与贸易总协定》——这是打破贸易保护主义提升国际自由贸易合作的第一步。在那之前，世界对贸易的看法和今天中国差不多：充满竞争的，每个国家必须保护自己的产业并打压竞争对手的。而几个世纪后那些领先的政府才认为只有丢掉那些毫无效率的保护措施所有人才能更好地发展。即使是将全球经济体系转变为合作模式具有革命性意义的关税与贸易总协定也只是完成了一部分，而最新一轮降低关税协议已经停滞了10年。

It's not a coincidence that the greatest proponents of the liberal international system are also its richest: the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and the UK, all of which benefit tremendously from a world of free trade and cooperation. China's increased buy-in to this system, and perhaps even its partial leadership of it, is likely to more closely align its interests with the rest of the world's, which is precisely the point of such a system. That buy-in may make it more difficult for the European Union to challenge China's notorious and illiberal protectionism, but it may also bring China closer to accepting the idea that made the European Union (which China so loves) possible in the first place: that the global economy can be built on cooperation and mutually held rules, rather than on zero-sum competition. For example, it could lead China to the conclusion that, rather than simply bailing out Europe, what might really further Chinese interests would be increasing European imports and leveling out the trade imbalance that is so weakening Europe's economies.
美国、日本、德国、法国和英国是国际自由体系最大的支持者，同时也是这个世界上最富有的经济体，这一切并非巧合，所有这些国家都极大地从国际自由贸易与合作中获益。中国在这个体系中加大买入甚至增强其在体系内的领导权，肯定会将其利益与世界其他国家紧密联系在一起，而这一结果恰恰符合这一体系的宗旨。中国的买入将使得欧盟更加难以对付中国声名狼藉的狭隘贸易保护主义，但这也有可能会促使中国进一步接受把欧盟作为首选的想法：全球经济建立在互相合作共同遵守规则的基础上而不是零和竞争的前提下。例如，这能够使中国认识到比起单纯的救助欧洲，增加对欧进口，打破削弱欧洲经济体的贸易不平衡更符合中国的长远利益。

Still, it's more difficult to imagine that this would liberalize China's domestic governance; for now at least, the country is likely to continue making dissidents vanish, tightly managing speech, and mistreating poor rural communities regardless of how much Italian debt it holds. The question of whether a country like China will naturally become more democratic as it embraces the free market is still largely one of theoretical debate. But, when it comes to the global economy at least, it might be time for the West to start looking at China as a natural ally rather than a competitor.
更难以想象的是这将使中国的国内治理更加自由。至少到目前中国很可能会继续打击持不同政见者，加强管制言论，无论拥有多少意大利债务虐待贫困农村社区。关于像中国这样一个的国家引进自由市场是否会变得更加民主在很大程度上仍是一个理论辩论。但是至少当其涉及到全球经济问题上，可能是时候西方要将中国作为盟友，而不是竞争对手了。

天马

欧盟要是做刺猬的话，中国就难以拥抱他。

举杯邀明月

这位不是王岐山，谈中国问题中国领导人都不认识能有多大诚意呢？西煤怎么老出这种乌龙。PS:老贝的这双手握后要多洗几回。

忠孝节义

大家注意到照片上两人后面的油画吗？那是拉斐尔的名作《教皇会见阿提拉》。

虽然估计这幅画本来就是挂在基吉宫的，只是巧合，不过也未必不是记者故意专门挑的。要知道我们没什么在意，西方人可是对此很敏感，反正他们眼中我们都是黄种人。

lyycc

西方国家在自由贸易中进行的是正当买卖~

而中国在自由贸易中则成了招摇撞骗~

哎，西媒~的是无语了~

beifei

谁来拯救中国？谁会来帮助中国？谁在向中国吃拿卡要？

xifei

别没把欧洲救出来，自已又陷进去了{:soso_e119:}

拓跋焘

中美干脆作死欧元算了