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【中文标题】本周战报：论中国
【原文标题】This Week at War: Let's Talk About China
【登载媒体】外交政策
【来源网址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/this_week_at_war_lets_talk_about_china
【译 者】 godstear4u
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
A new book argues that it's time to have an open conversation about the security challenges posed by the Middle Kingdom's rise, even if Beijing gets offended.
一本新书提出现在是时候就中央帝国的崛起带来的安全挑战进行公开对话了，即使这样会冒犯中国。
BY ROBERT HADDICK | SEPTEMBER 23, 2011
A Contest for Supremacy calls on America's China-watchers to get real
一场即将开始的霸权争夺战让美国的中国观察家们认清现实
In the preface to A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, Aaron Friedberg, an international relations professor at Princeton, describes how, in the waning months of the Clinton administration, he was hired to review the U.S. intelligence community's assessment of China. The experience, he says, left him deeply troubled about what he saw coming between China and the United States. By contrast, the "China hands" he knew in and out of the U.S. government "seemed to believe that a Sino-American rivalry was either highly unlikely, too terrifying to contemplate, or (presumably because talking about it might increase the odds that it would occur) too dangerous to discuss. Whatever the reason, it was not something that serious people spoke about in polite company."
在新书《中美争霸：亚洲主导权花落谁家》的前言中，普林斯顿大学的国际关系学教授阿龙佛雷德伯格介绍了他被希拉里内阁雇佣评阅美国智库对华评估报告的过程。而这段经历使他对中美未来关系发展极度不安。相反，他认识的政府内外的中国通们却似乎坚信中美敌对因后果不堪设想而不太可能，甚至似乎讨论它都会增加走火的风险而使人更加讳疾忌医。无论如何，这不是正经人士会在礼貌场合讨论的话题。
Like tossing a dead skunk into a garden party, A Contest for Supremacy aims to shake things up among the foreign-policy elite inside the United States. Friedberg presents all of the arguments employed in favor of optimism and complacency regarding the trends facing the United States in East Asia then systemically shoots them down. His book is the most thorough wake-up call yet regarding the security challenges presented by China's rise. It is also a plea to have an honest conversation about the difficult questions facing the United States in Asia.
就像把一只死臭鼬扔进了一场花园派对，《中美争霸》旨在使美国内部的外交政策精英们幡然猛醒。佛雷德伯格列举了关于美国在东亚形势所有积极自满的观点，然后将之一一驳倒。他的书是面临中国崛起带来的安全挑战将人醍醐灌顶彻底唤醒的警世钟，也是就美国在亚洲所面临问题进行坦诚讨论的强烈呼吁与请求。
The book's straightforward organization bolsters Friedberg's arguments. The first four chapters summarize the history of China's dealings with the West and explain the origins of the Middle Kingdom's rivalry with other great powers, including the United States. Thucydides and Bismarck would quickly recognize Friedberg's description of a rising China that has growing interests and that sees that it must take action to defend its position. The unfortunate fact that China's new interests overlap with those of the current dominant power is nothing new in the history of great-power collisions.
这本书开门见山的论证了作者的观点。前四章总结了中国和西方的交往史，解释了中央帝国与其他大国包括美国的矛盾起源。修昔底德斯和卑斯麦如果在世会毫不犹豫地认可佛雷德伯格对崛起中的中国的描述——财富不断增长并且将采取行动保护他的财富。而不幸的是中国新的利益增长点和其他世界大国发生重合，这种现象在历史上的大国冲突中已经屡见不鲜。
The second section of the book discusses China's view of its strategic situation. Friedberg draws extensively from Chinese sources to describe Beijing's view of the United States and the Chinese leadership's conceptions of its long-term interests and probable grand strategy. According to Friedberg, China's leaders view the United States not as a status quo power, but as a revisionist force determined to one day overthrow one-party rule inside China. This argument may come as a surprise to those in the United States who thought a revisionist China was challenging the status quo United States.
这本书第二篇章以中国视角介绍了当前战略形势。佛雷德伯格从中国的各种消息源旁征博引描述了中国政府对美国的看法以及中国领导人对长远利益重大战略的观点。据佛雷德伯格的说法，中国领导人不是把美国看做一个当下的强权而是一个旨在将来有一日从内部推翻一党统治的修正主义力量。这一观点可能让美国那些认为修正主义的中国正在挑战当下美国的人大吃一惊
Friedberg analyzes why, in addition to its economic potential, China is such a difficult challenge for U.S. policymakers. It has been two centuries, with its struggles against Britain, since the United States faced a strategic adversary that was simultaneously a broad and deep trading and financial partner. Friedberg catalogs the numerous business and academic interests inside the United States that profit from their relationships with China and who seek to downplay the strategic rivalry. Finally there are China's tactics, which emphasize patience and outwardly profess modesty about China's intentions and capabilities. Meanwhile, according to Friedberg, China seeks "to win without fighting" by establishing alternative networks and alliances that will eventually supplant and replace those global institutions created and defended by the United States and its allies.
为何中国对美国的政策制定者而言是一个艰难挑战，佛雷德伯格分析了除其经济增长以外的其他原因。自从战胜了英国以来，这是美国两百多年遇到的第一个同时有极深极广的经贸关系的战略级对手。佛雷德伯格列举了美国国内的无数商业和学术利益体，他们无视中美战略竞争通过与中国的关系获得利益。最后中国的战略是韬光养晦。佛雷德伯格还说，与此同时，中国寻求不战而胜，即通过自己建立一个联盟并最终取代现在美国和其盟国建立并维护的这些全球机构。
After conducting a net assessment of China's and America's hard and soft power, Friedberg concludes with an analysis of the strategic options available to U.S. policymakers. He has little regard for the idea that being firm with China's leaders will merely catalyze an avoidable conflict. For Friedberg, China's rulers are tough and thick-skinned realists whose decisions will benefit from a firm U.S. approach and who, by contrast, could tragically miscalculate if they perceive American vacillation. He recommends reinforcing conventional military deterrence, reaffirming U.S. alliances in Asia, and taking steps to maintain U.S. research and technological advantages. Perhaps most important is Friedberg's plea for U.S. policymakers and citizens to openly discuss the adverse trends facing the United States in East Asia and to reject the idea that merely discussing these issues will create a confrontation.
在主导进行过中美软硬实力的综合评估之后，佛雷德伯格根据美国政策决策者们可以采取的一系列战略性举措后进行了分析并得出结论。他认为笼络中国领导人将只能加速一场本可以避免的冲突的想法不值一提。对于佛雷德伯格来说中国的领导人都是些麻木不仁的死硬现实主义者，他们可以从美国十拿九稳地拿到好处，相反如果他们误判美国游移不定则必将悲剧。他建议加强传统的军事威慑，巩固美国与亚洲盟友的关系，并采取措施维持美国的技术研究优势。也许最重要的是佛雷德伯格对美国政策决策者和人民的呼吁：公开讨论美国在东亚面临的不利形势并反对那些仅仅讨论这些问题就会引发矛盾的观点。
The fragility of China's internal situation and the cresting in two decades of its demographic advantage do not escape Friedberg's scrutiny. Although Chinese leaders have displayed caution and patience, the window will close on their ability to take advantage of their growing power. With the next decade or so possibly being the most dangerous, there is all the more reason for both U.S. policymakers and the electorate to engage the difficult arguments presented in his book.
中国内部形势的脆弱性以及人口优势二十年即将见顶等现状也包含在佛雷德伯格的研究之内。虽然中国领导人已经显示出了警惕和耐心，但是他们的发展机遇窗口仍将关闭。随着可能是最危险的下一个十年的到来，美国政策制定者和选民们更应共同应对书中提出的这些困难。
Upgrading Taiwan's F-16s avoids a problem now but may create another one later
升级台湾的F16也许现在避免了问题但为以后出现另一个问题埋下隐患
Obama administration officials no doubt knew that their compromise package of arms sales to Taiwan would end up angering everyone involved with the issue. The White House passed on a proposal this week to sell 66 new F-16 C/D fighter-bombers to Taiwan, an aircraft assembled at Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth, Texas plant. Instead, Taiwan's old fleet of 145 F-16 A/B models will get an extensive upgrade including the latest generation radar, and much improved navigation, electronic warfare, and targeting electronics. Senators John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) are leading a congressional push to pass a bill requiring the administration to sell the new airplanes to Taiwan. For its part, China's Foreign Ministry registered a strong protest at the decision and called in Gary Locke, the U.S. ambassador to Beijing, for a dressing down.
奥巴马内阁官员们无疑知道他们对台军售的承诺将会以各方不欢而散而告终。本周白宫本周已通过了一项决议，将售台66架洛克马丁公司生产于德州沃思堡市组装的崭新的F16战斗机。但这项决议现在已被升级台湾飞行编队的145架F-16 A/B的新项目所取代，此次升级内容包括最新一代雷达和、更先进的海军装备和电子战装备。参议员John Cornyn和Robert Menendez 正在国会推动要求通过对台军售最新战斗机。中国外交部则以召唤驻华大使骆家辉并强烈抗议作为还击。
The administration's path was calibrated to avoid the regular ritual of provoking Beijing to cut off military-to-military contacts with the United States. With concerns over China's military buildup rising, U.S. officials have placed a high priority on military exchanges, with the hope of preventing miscalculations. This time around, the gambit may be working with China yet to invoke another suspension. Having left the possibility of an F-16 C/D sale in reserve, Washington gave Beijing an incentive to refrain from blowing up the relationship again. Should Chinese officials opt to escalate, the United States would have little to lose by then approving the sale of the new aircraft.
国务院小心翼翼地踩着边界避免引发北京常规的中断军事交流的抗议手段。出于对中国军事力量增长的担忧，美国官员们把军事交流作为重要优先项目以避免误判。这一次，局势开始对中国有利但悬念还在后面。尽管美国给了中国一些利好以避免两国关系告吹，但仍然留了后手保留了将来售台F-16 C/D的可能性。如果中国政府步步紧逼，届时美国无路可退将不得不推进新型号战斗机的军售。
Lost in the discussion of the F-16s was the decision to supply Taiwan with 96 smart-bomb precision-aiming kits and 64 cluster bomb dispensers. Combined with the navigation, electronic warfare, and bomb-targeting upgrades, this package will significantly improve the offensive strike capability of Taiwan's F-16 fleet.
关于F-16的讨论中有些项目却被遗忘了，包括最后决定售台96个精准杀伤智能导弹和64个集束导弹。此外还有海战电子战装备核导弹定位系统升级，这一系列将极大地提高台湾F-16的主动攻击能力
This offensive strike capability would permit Taiwan to hold at risk important targets in Southeast China. The package thus enhances conventional deterrence and could boost strategic stability across the Taiwan Strait.
这一主动攻击能力将使台湾对中国东南的主要目标保持威慑，增强传统威慑能力促进台海战略稳定。
But this would require the F-16s to survive a Chinese missile barrage aimed at Taiwan's airfields and then get into the air. As discussed in the Pentagon's latest report on Chinese military power, China's large and ongoing buildup of land attack ballistic and cruise missiles threatens to shut down Taiwan's Air Force before it can take off.
但这首先要求台湾能够在瞄准了台湾机场的中国导弹密集攻击之下能够存活然后发射到空中。正如五角大楼最新的中国军力报告所指出的，中国庞大的并不断扩张的地基弹道导弹和巡航导弹系统能在台湾空军起飞前就将其击毁。
Without a survivable second-strike capability, Taiwan could find itself in a "use it or lose it" dilemma during a crisis. Rather than wait for a Chinese missile barrage to either destroy or ground its Air Force, in extremis Taiwan might find itself compelled to attack pre-emptively in order to make use of its F-16s and in an attempt to minimize the damage it might think it would inevitably suffer.
没有二次反击能力的台湾在危机到来时将发现他处于食之无味弃之可惜的两难局面之中。与其坐以待毙在中国导弹密集攻击的时候空军被歼或匿藏，台湾可能会为了使自身损失最小化而铤而走险使用F-16先发制人。
This is obviously an unstable and undesirable situation. In a previous column, I argued that what Taiwan really needs is its own inventory of mobile and concealable land-attack missiles, a force that could deter a Chinese attack.
很明显这样的形势既不稳定也不受欢迎。在之前的专栏中我主张台湾真正需要的是发展一种能制止中国攻击的力量，如发明自己的可移动可隐藏地基导弹。
Alternatively, Taiwan could acquire strike aircraft that don't require fixed air bases for their operations. The United States is developing just such an airplane for the U.S. Marine Corps, the short-takeoff vertical-landing F-35B Joint Strike Fighter. It should thus come as no surprise that a Taiwanese defense official suggested that if Taiwan can't get the F-16 C/D, maybe it should get the stealthy F-35 instead. An Obama administration official scoffed at the idea: "It's like not getting a Prius and asking for a custom-built Ferrari instead."
或者台湾可以去获取不需要固定空军基地的攻击机。美国正在给海军制造这种飞机，短距离垂直升降型F-35B 多用途攻击机。所以一位台湾国方官员说如果台湾不能获得F-16C/D，也许应该用隐形飞机F-35替代。一个奥巴马国务院的官员嘲笑了他的痴心妄想：这就好像得不到丰田普瑞斯就想要一个特别定制的法拉利来替代
Instead of scoffing, White House officials should instead think about what is required to prop up strategic stability in the southwest Pacific. With China's military spending galloping higher and the Pentagon's about to crash, the United States will need all the help from its allies it can get. In addition, simply repeating past practices without taking account of the dramatically changed circumstances over the Taiwan Strait could make things less rather than more stable. Policymakers on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue would benefit from assessing the Taiwan situation with a clean sheet of paper.
白宫官员们应该好好考虑如何提高西南太平洋局势稳定性而不是在那里嘲笑。随着中国军力发展一日千里而五角大楼却即将坠落，美国需要从其盟国尽可能获得一切帮助。此外，仅仅沉湎过去的陈词滥调而不考虑台海两岸剧烈变化的形式，可能是稳定形势适得其反。宾夕法尼亚大街两边的决策者们将从重新评估台海局势受益。
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