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因字数限制，这才是我想发的全部标题:一个旅英靠中文吃饭的中英文播音员兼作家:中国为何难以征服世界
像以往一样，中英文全文转载，暂时不发表评论。
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Why China won't conquer the world
Its young are incapable, its old are exhausted, and box-ticking bureaucrats make life hell. China, a superpower? First it needs to grow up, says acclaimed author Xué Xinran
By Xué Xinran8:00AM BST 02 Oct 2011108
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8796486/Why-China-wont-conquer-the-world.html
Is China going to oust the United States as the world’s superpower? Is China really ready to rule the world? For nearly a decade now, on book tours that have taken me all over the globe, this is the one subject I am always guaranteed to be grilled on.
I can understand why people ask me. My name is Xinran and I was born in Beijing in 1958. I am a British-Chinese broadcaster and author, and have lived in London since 1997, where I initially worked as a cleaner. I have a foot in both cultures, and yet, when my readers ask me whether Western fears that power is shifting inexorably to the East are justified, I struggle to answer them.
China is a sleeping lion, Napoleon once warned. “Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.” Nearly two centuries later, this lion is not only awake, but roaring. Foreign companies in Asia, factories in Africa, and even villages in Italy and streets in France have been snapped up by perspicacious Chinese businessmen. Growth may have slowed in the midst of the world debt crisis, but China remains the world’s low-cost manufacturer and the US’s biggest creditor, with one Washington think tank recently making the prediction that the Yuan could overtake the dollar as the principal reserve currency within a decade.
On my home turf in London, a string of schools now offer Mandarin lessons to children as young as three, including Easy Mandarin UK in Belgravia and the Link Chinese Academy, which runs “fun” classes in “the language of the future” in Soho, Liverpool Street and Hammersmith. Back in 2008, The Daily Telegraph reported a rush on Mandarin-speaking nannies by “high-achieving parents” looking to “invest in their children’s future”. Wherever you look, China’s dominance seems inevitable. But is it?
At least twice a year I go back to China to update my understanding of my magical, constantly changing home country. As a writer, I try to dig out what’s really going on behind the cities’ monolithic shopping centres, the billboards flashing that day’s FTSE index, as well as visiting the countryside, where life couldn’t be more different.
My most recent trip to China was in September. It began with 10 mad, busy days in Beijing where my husband, as consultant to China Publishing Group, was attending the International Book Fair. I had gone to Nanjing to research my new book on the effects of China’s one-child policy, through the eyes of the first generation.
We then went to Shanghai where we were both giving lectures at Fudan University. Much of our time had been spent on the road, and we were by now desperate for a break from the swarming cars and the crowded streets, all overlooked by the unending skyscrapers lived in by over 16 million people.
A friend suggested a trip to Suzhou, “to have a walk and drink tea at some of the ancient tea farms, such as Guhan Village. No cars, no tourists”.
Before I left for Britain in 1997, this pleasant journey used to take me an hour by car. This time it took five hours and after a rushed lunch our driver warned us we would have to leave – “otherwise you won’t get back to Shanghai for dinner, even by Western standards”. (The Chinese eat dinner a lot earlier.)
As we reached the outskirts of the city and joined a crawling convoy of cars all fighting to get onto the motorway (the radio that morning had reported that the number of cars in China had recently reached 100 million, second only to the US’s 285 million) I took the opportunity to talk to our driver. What might he reveal about the state of modern China and where it is headed?
He was a father in his early thirties and had learnt to drive in the army. Many young peasants try very hard to get into the military, seeing it as an opportunity to have a better life than their parents and grandparents, who grew up in rural poverty or moved to the cities to live at the bottom of society as labourers. And yet, while he was far from being a member of the elite, he was by no means living a simple, pared-down existence: “Drivers have no chance of making big money like politicians and governors, but we need it as much as everyone does. We all only have one child and we want to give the best to them.
“My daughter’s kindergarten is not in the top list at all but it costs over 10,000 RMB (£1,000) a year. She’s going to a primary school this year, and it has cost more than 30,000 RMB just for the ‘entrance donation’ which is for a very average school.” When I asked how often he saw his daughter, he said, “There is no time for family, everybody is busy making money for their children. I use every occasion to sleep for the next stretch of work.”
No wonder: he told me he generally worked 15-hour days and that many Shanghai taxi drivers work for 18 hours without a break. “Drivers I know have died because they have fallen asleep at the wheel. What a waste.” I met hotel workers in Shanghai and Beijing, most of them in their early twenties, who told me they’d happily work more than 12 hours a day, seven days a week, without holidays, if they could make some extra money.
China has become a machine for generating wealth and opportunity, but is this nation of exhausted workers really one that can one day lead the world?
And what of the generation the one-child policy has spawned? Children from the biggest 40 cities are living in the three-screen world (television, computer and mobile), wearing global designer brands, travelling first class, and buying houses and cars for their one or two years’ study overseas. For these young “super-rich”, price has become no object, some even flying to and from Hong Kong for a day’s shopping.
It’s hard to conceive of them becoming China’s next generation of entrepreneurs, when, unlike their parents and grandparents, many have never touched a cooker and barely know how to make their own beds. They may have had superior schooling but many critics believe China’s education system – with its obsession with test-taking and rote memorisation – stifles rather than encourages creativity. Indeed, today’s entry exam for China’s universities, the “gaokao”, has its origins in a recruitment test devised by the imperial government in the sixth century, and, according to Jiang Xueqin, a Yale-educated school administrator in Beijing, rewards “very strong memory; very strong logical and analytical ability; little imagination; little desire to question authority”. China could be seen as a brilliant imitator but a poor innovator – its talents for replicating anything the Western world has to offer evidenced by the recent uncovering of 22 fake Apple stores across Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province in south-west China. So convincing were the stores that even staff members believed they were working for Apple. Genius, in a way. But misdirected genius.
If China is to dominate the creative industries as it has manufacturing, it needs to borrow a line from Apple’s marketing department: “Think different”. Liu Jun, a businessman recently crowned one of the “50 most creative individuals in China”, says it’s an uphill struggle.
“The reason the Chinese don’t have global companies is that we don’t have a global vision,” he said recently. “Chinese designers only think about what pleasures them, not the customer. It’s a huge problem.” Chinese corporate structures remain very rigid, and, according to Daniel Altman, a consultant at Dalberg Global Development Advisors, original ideas “have to percolate through so many layers of hierarchy that most won’t survive to the top. China has a long way to go before it will be anything like the US in its ability to foster entrepreneurship.”
Of course, such dreams of corporate domination are a far cry from the lives of China’s peasants and farmers, who make up 70 per cent of the population. And for many lower down the chain, there is a growing resentment at our servicing of the US debt. As our driver put it: “Why, when Chinese people are watering our land with sweat, working hard day and night, are Americans comfortable, wearing sunglasses, able to enjoy the sun and sea? Why do we have to help them with their financial troubles?”
I didn’t tell him that in July this year, the total number of US bonds held by China had reached $1.1735trillion, equivalent to each person in China being owed 5,700 RMB (£570). I think, as Chinese people, we all know how this burden of debt accumulated, through years of bent backs and rough work, but not many people dare speak out. This is partly because most Chinese people don’t understand the scale of the financial crisis in the US and partly because we are not used to questioning our country’s leaders.
Taiwan-born Larry Hsien Ping Lang, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, is known for his critiques of the Chinese economy. Earlier this month he warned that concerns about the state of the US economy have been overblown, and that it is really China’s precarious financial position the government needs to address.
“Our economy is not healthy,” he wrote, “and China’s manufacturing industry will be the end of its development. The number of business closures will reach 30 per cent or 40 per cent because the manufacturing zone faces two difficulties. First, the investment environment has deteriorated across the board and, second, there is serious excess capacity.
“These difficulties have led to a manufacturing crisis and entrepreneurs have had to retreat.” China’s rocketing house prices, fuelled by money advanced from the manufacturing sector, are only adding to China’s “bubble economy”, Lang believes.
Is the bubble about to burst? Lang fears it is. In his eyes, the speed of growth of China’s economy must slow down to give time for its education system and society to catch up; to improve the balance between rich and poor, and to allow time to consider what China needs to create a strong future.
After years spent researching the issues caused by a society made up of single children, I can’t help agreeing with Lang. Indeed, sometimes my home country feels like a nation in chaos.
Take the number of deaths on the road. In the past five years (2006-2010), there have been 76,000 road traffic deaths in China every year, accounting for more than 80 per cent of the total killed in all industrial accidents. Since 2001, divorce rates have also shot up. China’s highest divorce rate is in Beijing (39 per cent), closely followed by Shanghai (38 per cent).
Today, more than half the number of divorces are between people in their twenties and thirties, most of them from the first generation of the single-child policy. Many of this generation don’t even want children. Some don’t like the idea of being ousted from their position within the family; others say they simply don’t have the time to care for a child. At least they know their limitations. In the last five years, there have been numerous cases of two and three year-olds who have suffocated to death in family cars. Why? Because their distracted parents entrusted them to the care of drivers who left them locked in airless cars while running errands. It’s hard to take in, but it’s happening.
China is changing and, for some, the results are difficult to see. When I was in Nanjing with old friends (a group of traditional lantern makers), they chatted about children they hadn’t seen for a long time. They couldn’t understand how life is getting better and yet the family is disappearing.
There is no question that China has progressed in the past 30 years. I don’t think any nation in history has improved 1.3 billion peoples’ lives in such a short space of time. Most of our grandparents were saving a few soya beans everyday to help their family survive the famine, my parents would queue for hours just to get a bottle of cooking oil.
But are we really the next superpower? Can we really interact with the most developed countries when our free market economy is only 30 years old?
Even if we do become a superpower, will it be one that is firmly under central government control? Will we lose our identity – our family values and our culture – until we can no longer tell the difference between the Chinese dragon (how the Chinese think of themselves) and the Chinese lion (how the West thinks of us)? China, this sleeping lion is now awake, and you must find a way to feed it, and to keep it alive.
Back in Shanghai, our epic 10-hour journey between Shanghai and Suzhou finally over, my husband, Toby, cried out: I won’t get in the car in China again.
But we knew we would. It is a country that is far too exciting and colourful to give up on and most exciting of all, its story is still being written.
《每日电讯报》中国为何难以征服世界
核心提示：年轻一代能力不足，年长一代筋疲力尽，更甚者，僵硬的官僚主义使得让生活苦不堪言。中国是超级大国？它首先还得成长――流行作家薛欣然这样说。
原文：Why China won't conquer the world
作者：薛欣然（Xué Xinran）
发表：2011年10月2日
本文由"译者"志愿者翻译并校对http://yyyyiiii.blogspot.com/
中国真的将超过美国而成为世界超级大国?中国准备好了统治这个世界了吗?将近十年了,在那些带我游历全世界的书籍宣传之旅，这一直是一个我被反复问及的话题。
我能理解，为什么人们要这样问我。我叫（薛）欣然，1958年在北京出生。我是一个中英文播音员兼作家，从1997年开始，定居伦敦；在这里，我是从清洁工干起的。东西方两种文化我都有所涉猎；然而，当我的读者问我，西方人所恐惧的"权力在不可避免地东移"之说是否合理时，我我总是要颇费思量才能回答。
拿破仑曾经警告：中国是一头睡狮――"让她沉睡吧，因为一旦她觉醒，她将震动世界。"差不多两个世纪后，这头睡狮不仅醒过来了，而且正在怒吼。亚洲的外资公司、非洲的工厂，甚至是意大利的乡村以及法兰西的街道，都已被精明的中国商人抢购了。在世界性债务危机的漩涡中，经济增长可能放缓了，但是，中国仍然是世界的廉价制造商，也是美国的头号债主。（难怪）最近有一个华盛顿的智库做出预测：不到十年，人民币将取代美元，成为首要的储备货币。
在我的家乡伦敦(diver18注:这应该不是作者想表达的意思)，大批学校现在向小至三岁的孩子提供普通话课程，其中包括上流社区的"英国简易普通话"和"林克中文学院"，后者在苏豪、利物浦大街和汉默史密斯开设"未来语言"的"趣味"课程。早在2008年，每日电讯报就报道了一阵汉语保姆热，许多"成就颇高的父母"都想要"投资孩子的未来"。不管你眼观何方，中国似乎必定将主导世界。但是，果真如此吗？
每年，我至少两次返回中国，去更新我对我那魔幻般的、日新月异的祖国的认识。作为一个作家，在城市里那些庞大的购物中心、实时显示英国富时100指数的广告牌身后我试图发掘，到底有些什么正在上演；我也到乡下旅行，那儿的生活不太可能有很大变化。
我最近的一次中国之旅是在九月份。一开始是在北京的疯狂而又忙碌的十天，我丈夫作为中国出版协会的顾问在这儿参加国际图书展。为了在那本关于中国的计划生育政策的新书展示出第一代独生子女的视角，我去了南京做调研。
随后，我们夫妇俩去了上海，我们都到复旦大学做了讲座。我们的大量时间都花在路上；到如今，从那些密集的车潮与拥挤的街道中抽身而出是我们急需的修整，而这些车潮与马路环绕在有一千六百万人口居住的高楼大厦之中。
一个朋友推荐我去一趟苏州，"去那些古老的茶庄中散步饮茶，譬如说古汉茶庄。（那儿）没有车流，也没有游客"。
在我1997年前往英国之前，这一愉快的旅程仅需一个小时的车程。这一次却花费了五个小时，而且，在仓促地吃完午饭后，我们的司机提醒我们必须要离开了――"要不然我们将没法赶回上海吃晚餐，哪怕是按照西方标准的晚饭（都不可能）。"（中国人吃晚餐的时间比西方人早得多。）
我们到达上海城郊后，就融入了缓慢前进的车流之中，所有的车辆都努力地往高速公路上开（那天早上的广播里报道，中国的汽车数量刚刚达到了一亿辆，仅次于美国的2.85亿辆），（这时）我趁机与我们的司机交谈起来。他能讲出哪些关于现代中国的状态以及它的走向呢？
他三十出头，是一名父亲，在军队中学会了开车。许多年轻人都竭尽全力参军，将之视为过上比父母和祖父母更好的生活的机会；他们的父母和祖父母都在农村的贫苦中长大，或者是移居到城市里、在社会底层做苦力。然而，尽管他远非精英阶层中的一员，他也绝非过着一种简单、轻松的生活："司机们不像政客或者大官们，没有机会挣大钱，但是我们也像任何人一样需要钱。我们都只有一个孩子，都想给他们最好的。"
"我女儿就读的幼儿园根本算不上一流的，但是每年仍要花费超过一万块钱（约合一千英镑）。她今年要上小学了，单单'择校费'就要花费三万多块，这还只是一所非常普通的学校。"当我问他多久见他女儿一次时，他说："家人根本没有时间（见面），每个人都在为孩子而忙着挣钱。为了下一时段的轮班，我都是得空就睡一会儿。"
难怪。他告诉我他通常每天都上十五个小时的班，上海许多出租车司机更是每天工作十八个小时，也不休息一下。"我认识的一些司机，因为开车时睡着了而（出事）死亡。多么可惜啊！"我见过上海和北京的一些酒店工人，他们大多数是二十出头，他们告诉我，如果可以挣更多的钱，他们宁愿一周工作七天，每天工作超过十二个小时。
中国已经变成一个制造财富与机遇的机器了，但是，这个处处是疲倦工人的国家，真的有一天会引领世界吗？
计划生育政策又给这一代人带来了什么？来自最大的四十个城市的孩子，生活在"三屏世界"（电视、电脑与手机），穿着世界名牌，坐着头等舱旅行，还为其在国外一两年的学习而买房买车。对这些年轻的"超级富豪"来说，价格不是障碍；他们中的一些人甚至为了一天的购物而乘飞机往返香港。
很难想象他们能成为中国的下一代创业者――不像其父母和祖父母，他们很多人都从未碰一下厨具，几乎没有人知道如何整理床铺。他们上的可能是一流的学校，但是很多评论家认为，中国那执着于应试与死记硬背的教育系统，抑制而不是激发了，学生的创造力。确实，当前中国的大学入学考试"高考"，起源于一种六世纪皇权政府制定的科举考试；而且，按照北京一位受教于耶鲁大学的学校高管蒋学勤的说法，（高考）鼓励的是那些"有很强的记忆力、很强的逻辑与分析能力、但想象力很少、对权威极少质疑的人"。中国可以被视为一个超级聪明的模仿者，但却是蹩脚的创造者――新近发现的中国西南云南省首府昆明市遍布的二十二家冒牌苹果店，佐证了中国复制西方世界的任何事物的能力。这些冒牌店是如此的以假乱真，以至于员工们都相信自己真的是在为苹果工作。某种程度上的天才啊，但却是被误导了的天才！
如果中国想象制造业那样占据创新产业，它必须从苹果的市场营销部门取经："奇思妙想"。一位最近荣获"中国最富创造力的五十人"头衔的商人刘俊（音）表示，这是一场艰难的奋斗。
"中国没有世界品牌的原因是我们没有一种世界眼光"，刘俊说，"中国的设计师只考虑让自己而不是让消费者感到愉悦。这是一个巨大的问题。"中国的企业结构仍然十分僵化，根据"达尔贝格全球发展顾问"的高级顾问丹尼尔・阿特曼（Danile Altman）的说法，新颖的想法"不得不被如此多的领导层过滤以至于大多数都难以传达到决策层。在成为像美国那样具有培育企业家能力的国家之前，中国仍然任重而道远。"
当然，这种企业领先的美梦是中国贫农民与农场主难以企及的，而这一群体占据了中国人口的70%。对于许多社会低层人来说，一种因购买美国国债引发的怨恨正在升级。正如我们的司机直言："为什么在中国人民挥洒汗水种地、没日没夜工作之时，戴着太阳镜、舒舒服服的美国人能够尽情享受阳光与沙滩？我们为什么要去解救他们的金融问题？"
我还没有告诉他，（截止）今年七月份，中国持有的美债总额已达11735亿了，相当于每一个中国人持有5700元（合570英镑）的债券。我认为，作为中国人，我们都知道这种债务负担是怎样累积的――通过年复一年的弯腰勤干――但是，没有多少人敢讲出来。这一部分是因为大多数中国人不知道美国金融危机的规模，另一部分则是因为我们中国人没有质疑领导人的习惯。
台湾出生的香港大学金融学教授郎咸平，因对中国经济的评论而出名。这个月上旬他警告，对美国经济状态的担忧被放大了，中国不确定的金融状况才是政府真正需要设法解决的。
"我们的经济是不健康的，"他写到，"而且中国的制造业将是它发展的尽头。因为制造业领域所面临的两大难题，企业倒闭的数量将达到30%-40%。第一是跨国投资环境的恶化，第二则是严重的产能过剩。"
"这些难题将引发制造业危机，而企业家也不得不撤离。"中国飙升的房价通过从制造行业转移而来的钱而被炒起来，仅仅是助长了中国的"泡沫经济"，郎咸平这样认为。
这个泡沫将要破灭了吗？郎氏担心答案是肯定的。在他看来，中国经济的增长必须放缓，好使中国的教育系统与社会有时间赶上来，好让贫富差距的平衡得到调节，也好腾出时间来考虑一下，中国需要什么才能创造出强盛的未来。
多年来，我耗费时间研究由独生子构成的社会所引发的问题，让我对郎咸平的看法不谋而合。确实，有时我的祖国像是一个乱糟糟的国度。
以交通事故死亡人数为例。在过去的五年里（2006-2010），中国每年有76000起交通事故死亡案例，占据了因工业事故而死亡的总人数的80%以上。从2001年以来，离婚率也猛涨了。中国离婚率最高的城市是北京（39%），紧随其后的是上海（38%）。
现在，一半以上的离婚者处于二十或三十多岁，他们当中的绝大多数是计划生育政策下得第一代人。这代人中的许多人甚至不想要小孩。有些是不喜欢被驱出家庭的想法，另一些则纯粹是没有时间照顾小孩。至少他们知道自己的局限。过去五年里，有许多起两岁或三岁小孩在私家车里窒息死亡的案例。为什么呢？因为他们那忙碌的父母把他们托付给了司机，而后者则在跑来跑去的时候将小孩落在不通气的轿车里。这很难让人理解，但却实实在在地发生了。
中国正在变化，而且对于一些人来说，结果是难以预见的。我在南京同一些故友（一群传统灯笼制作人）待在一起时，他们聊到很久没有见到孩子了。他们不能理解生活如何才能改善，而家庭却正在消失。
毫无疑问，中国在过去的三十年里取得了进展。我认为历史上没有哪个国家能够在这么短的时间里改善十三亿人的生活。我们很多人的祖父母曾每天节省几粒黄豆来帮助家庭渡过饥荒；我的父母仅仅为了一瓶食用油，要排好几个小时的队。
但是，我们真的是下一个超级大国吗？我们真的能凭区区三十年的"自由市场经济"来与最发达国家互动吗？
哪怕我们真的成为了超级大国，它仍然会被中央政府牢牢控制吗？我们会迷失自己的身份――我们的家庭价值与文化――直到我们再也不能判别中国龙（中国人如何看待自身）和中国狮（西方人如何评判我们）吗？中国，这头睡狮现在觉醒了，然而，你必须寻得喂养之道而使之保持活力。
回到上海后，我们往返沪苏之间艰难而又漫长的十个小时之旅总算结束了。我的丈夫托比狂叫：我再也不要在中国坐车了。
但是我们知道，我们还会坐的。这是一个是在太让人兴奋太丰富多彩的国家了，以至于我们不能弃之不来。最让人兴奋的是，它每天都还在书写着新的篇章。 |
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狗仔卡
楼主
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-10-9 09:41
