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本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-10 10:18 编辑
【中文标题】中国评论美国政策，不是低估人民币，而是为其经济困境寻找替罪羊
【原文标题】China says U.S. policy, not undervalued currency, to blame for economic woes
【登载媒体】华盛顿邮报
【来源地址】http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-says-us-policy-not-its-currency-to-blame-for-economic-woes/2011/10/06/gIQAFHPyPL_story.html
【译 者】tresd
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
BEIJING — The view from Washington, as seen by proponents of the China currency sanctions bill, seems clear: China’s government keeps its currency artificially low. That keeps manufacturing here cheap, which in turn makes Chinese products less expensive. U.S. companies cannot compete. Americans lose jobs.
But the view from China — as gleaned from official comments, newspaper opinion pieces and interviews with economists — is often diametrically opposed.
北京——来自华盛顿的支持人民币制裁法案的观点清楚地显示出：中国政府人为操纵人们币，保持低汇率，使中国产品相对便宜，而美国的公司无法与之竞争，美国人因此失去工作。但是收集自中国的官方意见、报纸评论和经济学家访谈的观点恰恰与上面相反。
China’s currency, those observers point out, has actually been rising in value — so much so that Chinese manufacturers are feeling the pinch. Inflation here is high, putting an extra burden. Many local factories have gone bankrupt. Growing wage demands, after a string of strikes last year, mean China has ceded the title of world’s top cheap producer to Vietnam, Bangladesh and others.
Furthermore, this view holds, Americans should stop blaming China for their country’s financial mess.
有观察者指出，中国货币其实在升值，幅度之大以至于中国的制造业企业感受到巨大压力。当然高通胀是企业的另一个负担。许多本地工厂已经破产。在去年一系列罢工事件之后（广东中山市、上海浦东新区、江苏昆山市、江西九江市的罢工），普遍上涨工资的要求意味着中国世界廉价工厂的头衔已转移至越南、孟加拉国等国家。更重要的是，有观点认为美国应该停止指责中国金融系统的混乱。
“It’s crystal clear that labeling China as a ‘currency manipulator’ is just a cheap excuse for some in Washington to launch a protectionist war,” the state-run news agency, Xinhua, wrote in an editorial this week. “It is also unfair and unwise to make China a scapegoat for the economic problems of America’s own making. The United States has to look inward to revive its economic growth.”
新华社的一位编辑本周写到：“非常明显，给中国贴上‘汇率操纵国’的标签是华盛顿某些人发动贸易保护战的低廉的借口。把中国作为美国自己惹出来的经济问题的替罪羊是不公平和不明智的。美国应该向内看，复苏本国经济增长。”
With the Senate clearing a procedural hurdle Thursday allowing the sanctions bill to proceed to a final vote, economists in the United States and in China say there is truth on both sides.
“Clearly, the currency is part of the answer. In that way, the Americans are right,” said Patrick Chovanec, who worked on Capitol Hill and now teaches at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “But it’s only part of the puzzle. And it’s not a silver bullet.”
随着周四参议院扫清程序性障碍，允许迫人民币升值法案进入最后投票程序，中美两国经济学家表达了双方之间存在的基本事实。“很清楚，人民币汇率是造成此种情况（美国经济困境）的部分原因。由此看，美国政府是正确的。但这只是美国经济困境的部分原因，也不是解决问题的银弹”。曾在美国国会任职，目前在清华大学任教霍瓦内克（Patrick Chovanec）说。
Bolstering the U.S. argument, Chovanec and others said China is sitting atop foreign exchange reserves whose worth topped $3 trillion this year. Such an accumulation, economists said, indicates that the local currency is undervalued and that China is selling more than it buys.
More proof: The 2011 U.S. trade deficit stood at $428 billion through July, and 37 percent of that was with China.
Economists in the United States said they believe the Chinese currency — officially called the renminbi but more commonly called the yuan — is undervalued anywhere between 15 percent and 38.5 percent.
作为支持美国政府的观点，霍瓦内克等经济学家说中国坐拥总额在今年将达到3万亿美元的外汇储备。这么多的外汇储备说明中国的货币被低估而且中国卖的比买的多。根据最新数据，2011年截止到7月，美国贸易赤字达到4280亿美元，其中37%是在与中国贸易中产生的。
美国的经济学家表示他们相信中国的货币（官方称为人民币，更为通常的叫法为元）存在15%—38.5%的低估。
Many of the same economists note, however, that the yuan has appreciated considerably in recent years, especially in the past 12 months. Until 2005, the last time Washington and Beijing came to a near-crisis confrontation over the currency, the yuan was pegged at 8.2 to the dollar. Since then, it has been allowed to gradually appreciate about 5 percent a year, to the current level of about 6.3 yuan to the dollar.
这些经济学家同时表示近年来，特别是最近12个月，人民币有很大幅度的升值。在2005年华盛顿和北京最近一次关于汇率问题发生近危机的摩擦时，人民币兑美元汇率固定在8.2。自此之后，中国允许人民币兑美元汇率以每年5%的速度逐渐升值，至今汇率达到6.3的水平。
The yuan’s appreciation was halted in late 2008, when the global economic recession took hold and Chinese manufacturers began seeing their U.S. and European markets dry up. China’s government — propelled by the powerful Commerce Ministry, which represents small manufacturers —argued that any more appreciation, coupled with the diminished markets in the recession-hit West, would damage local factories and trigger widespread unemployment.
Appreciation was allowed to resume in June 2010, and the currency has since gone up about 5 percent in value, according to estimates by the U.S. Treasury Department, among others. A new factor this year has been inflation, currently running at an adjusted annual rate of about 6.5 percent, well above the government’s target of 4 percent.
Chinese officials note that the 5 percent appreciation of the yuan, plus inflation of at least 6.5 percent, means that the price of doing business in China is actually almost 12 percent higher than a year ago.
2008年下半年爆发全球经济危机，中国制造业开始面临欧美市场的萎缩，人民币升值步伐由此中断。中国政府，由代表中小制造业企业的强力部门商务部推动，认为如果汇率继续升值，将会使危机中的西方市场加倍萎缩，摧毁本地的工厂和导致大范围的失业。
2010年6月，人民币汇率升值重启，按照美国财政部的估算，人民币汇率已经升值5%。一个新的因素是今年的通胀，最近调整后的年度通胀率6.5%，高于政府设定的4%的目标。
中国官方解释5%的人民币升值加上至少6.5%的通胀，意味着在中国商业活动的成本实际上比一年前高了近12%。
In 2010, China was also hit by an unprecedented outbreak of labor unrest, particularly in Guangdong province in the south, prompting officials to increase minimum wages across the country — a development that helped topple China as the global capital of cheap manufactured goods.
2010年中国遭遇了空前的工潮事件，尤其是在广东南部，这促使官方提高全国的最低工资水平，从而使其在廉价制造商品的全球资本市场上的地位摇摇欲坠。
The Chinese government still wants to support its booming export sector — and in that sense is just following the model that has led to its success.
“Every country that’s ever gotten rich in the industrial era has used an export-led growth model,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of GaveKal-Dragonomics, an economics research firm in Beijing.“All that China is doing is what every other successful economy has ever done.”
Still, officials speak of the need to shift the country from its reliance on exports to a model based more on domestic consumption.
Allowing the yuan to appreciate would presumably increase the purchasing power of Chinese consumers, who could then buy more Chinese products as well as expensive U.S.-made products. But experts said market access restrictions to American and other foreign goods remain a far bigger impediment than the value of the currency.
The other main evidence cited as proof that China’s currency is undervalued — the trade surplus — is also contested in Beijing. China’s surplus is now less than 3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, down from 11 percent in 2007, according to statistics from GaveKal-Dragonomics. So China has actually cut its trade surplus relative to the size of its economy.
“I think people in the U.S. exaggerate the power of the currency to achieve real gains,” Kroeber said. “Most of the U.S.’s problems have to do with U.S. policy.”
Although attacking China’s currency might make for good politics, Kroeber said, “it’s not tackling the fundamental issue of what is needed to get U.S. growth going.”
中国政府希望继续支持其出口贸易的繁荣，这正是其成功的模式。
北京的一家经济研究公司，龙洲经讯的董事经理葛艺豪（Arthur Kroeber）说：“工业时代的每个富国都曾经历过出口导向型的增长模式。中国现在做的正是其他成功国家之前都做过的事。”而官方表示要从出口导向型的发展模式转变为内需拉动型的发展模式。
人民币升值可能会增强中国消费者的购买力，可以购买更多的中国产商品，同时也可以更多地购买昂贵的美国产商品。但是专家说中国对于美国及其他外国商品的市场准入限制是比汇率问题更大的障碍。
其他用来证明人民币汇率低估的证据，如贸易盈余还在争论中。按照龙洲经讯的统计，中国现在的贸易盈余少于国内生产总值的3%，比2007年的11%大幅下降。所以中国的贸易盈余相对于其经济总量已经大幅削减。
葛艺豪说：“我认为美国夸大汇率的作用是想从中获取实在利益。但美国的大部分问题和其政策有关。”
尽管葛攻击人民币汇率应该有更好的政策，但仍说：“这不能解决保持美国经济增长的根本问题。”
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-10-10 10:14
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发表于 2011-10-10 10:53
