【今日美国20111018】温州危机的预示

某程

【中文标题】温州危机的预示

【原文标题】Debt panic in China's Wenzhou may predict wider woes

【登载媒体】 今日美国

【来源地址】http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/story/2011-10-18/China-credit/50810988/1

【原文作者】ELAINE KURTENBACH

【译者】某程

【翻译方式】人工

【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译文】

WENZHOU, China – Wenzhou's private entrepreneurs, scrappy survivors in an economy ruled by state industries, once thrived on a formula of cheap backstreet loans and low-cost manufacturing.
中国温州—温州的私营企业家们，在国家工业体制中艰难的生存了下来。曾经靠廉价非法贷款和低成本的制造业模式而兴盛。



In this photo taken Monday, Oct. 17, 2011, former workers enroll to resume jobs at the Zhe Jiang Center Group, one of China's biggest makers of eyeglasses, outside the company's compound in Wenzhou.
这张照片是在2011年10月17日星期五拍的，显示的是在温州--中国最大眼镜制造商中的一家浙江信泰集团外的院子里前任工人重新返工。

Now, they're at the center of what some have dubbed China's own subprime debt crisis, a festering mess of borrowings gone sour that has become one of the weakest links in the economy — at a time when strength here is most needed to offset weakness in the U.S. and Europe.
如今，他们位于被某些人称为是中国次贷危机中的焦点上，已经成为中国经济的弱点环节，由于许多贷款无法偿还---在这个美国和欧洲经济危机正需要资金补偿的重要时刻。

"Do anything, but not manufacturing in China!" exclaimed Yang Guanghua, boss of a Wenzhou electroplating factory. Unable to collect from customers who themselves have no money, Yang said he stopped paying salaries two months ago.
"I can't get raw materials because suppliers are afraid I will run away," Yang said. "It's just impossible to get loans from the bank unless you have connections," he said.
温州电镀厂的老板杨光华说，“在中国做什么都好，就是别做制造业！”由于他无法从客户那里收款，导致他自身没有钱，他说他已经两个月前就停发工资了。
杨说，“我既不能从供应商那里得到原材料也不能从银行得到贷款。供应商怕我跑路，银行又没有关系。”

Wenzhou's factory bosses are caught in a dire credit crunch. Pyramids of high-interest private lending are collapsing as companies whose profits are dwindling due to rising costs and weakening demand default on their debts. Dozens of tycoons have skipped town. The government has intervened, but many worry the stopgap measures will not prevent the problems from getting worse.
温州的工厂老板都陷入了悲惨的信用危机。由于上涨的成本价格和产品的需求疲软使公司利润减少导致拖欠债款。金字塔式的高额私人贷款也随之坍塌了。许多老板都跑路了。政府已经介入了，但是许多人担心这种权宜之计并不能使目前的问题得到解决。

The true scale of informal lending nationwide, much of it derived from bank loans originally intended for other purposes, is unknown. But such lending has ballooned because the reluctance of China's state-run banks to lend to small and medium-sized businesses has been compounded by government curbs on credit to cool inflation. Interest charged by private lenders can be as high as 90%, inviting comparisons with dodgy investment schemes.
这种全国性的非正规的贷款规模目前未知。许多资金都来源于原始用于其他目的的银行贷款。但是鉴于中国的国有银行在政府为了控制通货膨胀的约束下不愿意把钱贷给中小型企业，导致这种私人贷款的激增。私人贷款的利息可高达90%，如此悬殊的对比吸引着众多投资者。

"I have to conclude that this business is now a Ponzi game, relying on new money to pay off the old money," said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based economist who traveled the Wenzhou region over the past two months researching the situation. "If not checked, this could lead to a national calamity."
上海的一名经济学家Andy Xie在过去两个月去温州地区研究了情况后说道，“我对这种贷款公司的总结就是旁氏骗局（注），用新钱来偿还旧钱。如果不是这次发现了，将会导致国家性的灾难。”

UBS economist Tao Wang puts informal lending at between 2 trillion yuan to 4 trillion yuan ($314 billion-$628 billion), or up to 10% of China's GDP. There is little immediate impact on China's massive state-run banks from some of these loans turning bad. A bigger risk is Wenzhou's credit squeeze spreading to other parts of the world's No. 2 economy.
瑞士联合银行的王涛估计私人贷款大概在2万亿到4万亿元之间，占中国的国内生产总值10%左右。对于其中某些坏债来说，不会立刻对中国的国有银行产生很大的影响。最大的危机是温州的信用降低会影响到作为全国第二大经济体的中国。

Though Wenzhou, a city of about 9 million on China's southeastern coast, accounts for less than 1% of the country's economic output, it has an outsized impact on China's manufacturing and its financial markets.
尽管温州只是中国东南部海岸的9百万人口城市，却可以占整个全国经济产量的将近1%，对中国的制造业和金融市场都有特大影响。

Almost all Wenzhou's business is privately owned, much of it by the city's more than 400,000 small and medium-size enterprises. The city's tycoons hold an estimated 800 billion yuan ($126 billion) in private capital and are renowned for driving speculation in property, coal mining and other commodities.
几乎温州所有的企业都是私人型的，这个城市大大小小有40万家企业。整个城市的老板们估计私人大概有8000亿元，曾因操纵各种投机买卖比如地产、煤矿和别的商品期货而出名。

Mercedes, Cadillac and Toyota dealerships line the roads — attesting to the personal wealth that has left the city's nighttime sidewalks chockablock with parked cars and its streets choking with smog.
满街的奔驰、凯迪拉克、和丰田汽车店，证明了这个城市的富翁遍地。一到夜晚，满大街的名车都停在路边，烟雾浓郁。

Vast chunks of the city are walled off for construction of luxury apartment complexes such as Noble Peninsula and Platinum Garden, while modern amenities such as a subway line are lacking.
Much of the estimated 500 billion yuan ($79 billion) in private borrowing in Wenzhou went not to manufacturing, but instead to potentially higher return investments in property or commodities — or to still more lending by the borrowers themselves.
城市的许多部分都被围起来建造豪华公寓，像尊贵半岛和铂金花园，然而这个时尚都市连像地铁这样的城建都没有。估计大约5000亿元的私人贷款资金没有投资进制造业却投入了高回报投资的地产和商品期货—或者又被借款者用作放款资金。

"When banks cut off lending, businessmen went to the high-interest informal lenders, figuring that a month or two later they'd get loans again to repay their other debts. But the banks are not lending so they ran out of cash," said Yu Jingliang, owner of Zhejiang Pacific Paper Co., which deals in disposable moist towelettes and toilet seat covers.
浙江太平洋纸业有限公司法人代表余京良说道，“当银行减少贷款时，商人们便去高利贷的私人那借款，盘算着过个一两月就又去借款补债。但是银行不借给他们，于是资金链条就断了。”这家公司经销一次性湿纸巾和马桶坐垫。

What might in normal times have been a brief liquidity squeeze became a death grip, as banks ordered to keep record levels of funds in reserves to fight inflation withheld even routine loans.
由于银行为了控制通货膨胀而命令登记资金等级进而收回了通常贷款，正常时刻曾经是短暂的流动性迫仓现在却成了死链。

Some of the tycoons that skipped town, including Hu Fulin, owner of major eyeglass maker Zhejiang Center Group, were convinced or coerced into coming back. A few committed suicide.
一些老板逃跑了，包括做眼镜的浙江新泰集团老板胡福林，现在被劝服或者被迫回来了。一些老板自杀了。

Despite the domination of state banking and enterprise elsewhere in China, private businesses account for roughly 80% of new job creation and are vital to the country's exports.
尽管中国国有银行和企业的支配，私营企业创造了粗略估计80%的就业岗位，并且对于中国的出口有着至关重要的影响。

With the problems spreading to other regions, including the Gobi desert boomtown of Ordos, China's leaders stepped in, ordering banks to lend more and to relax repayment terms for small and medium-sized enterprises. Loan sharks and other informal lenders were reminded not to use violence or other drastic measures to collect debts.
随着问题扩展到其他地方，包括新型的戈壁沙漠城市鄂尔多斯，中国的领导阶层也开始介入，命令银行放宽贷款和宽松中小企业的还债期限。贷款诈骗和其他高利贷主都被告知不许使用暴力和其他严峻方式收回款项。

Meanwhile, the government is slashing taxes and promising faster processing for export tax rebates.
同时，政府也削减税收和曾诺更快的出口退款。

The emergency measures, and a morale boosting visit by Premier Wen Jiabao and other top economic leaders, appear to have eased the recent panic.
紧急措施的采取和总理温家宝以及其他高层经济领导人到来鼓舞了士气似乎抑制了恐慌。

But more needs to be done, said Chen Shishang, founder of Senken Group, a maker of police vehicles, warning lights, sirens and riot gear.
星际控股集团有限公司老板陈时升认为，但是还需要更进一步的对策。这家公司是警车、警灯、警报器以及警棍的制造商。

"From the surface, it looks like the situation is somewhat under control. The government policies are coming and the banks are beginning to adjust, but many companies are still in crisis," Chen said in an interview in his office, an elegant haven of beige marble, oil paintings and ceramics at the company's headquarters in a grimy industrial zone in southern Wenzhou.
"We really need for the government to carry through with its help. We need more support measures," Chen said. "It's like a natural disaster. If everyone comes to help it won't be so dangerous."
“从表面上说，似乎情况得到了控制。政府的政策和银行都开始调节，但是许多公司还是在危机中，我们非常需要政府帮忙挺过去。我们需要许多支援之策。就像是自然灾害一样，如果大家都来帮忙的话，就不会如此危险。”陈在他的办公室采访说道。他的办公室坐落在南方温州污秽的工业区，是由米白色的大理石，油画和陶瓷装修而成的避难所。

Zhou Dewen, head of Wenzhou's association for small businesses, estimates up to 40% of the country's small and medium-sized manufacturers may have to close or at least cut back production in coming months due to a lack of working capital.
中国中小企业协会副会长周德文，估计由于缺少运作资金，下个月有将近40%的国家中小制造商将关闭造成生产力的下降。

Yang, the electroplating factory owner, said he is holding back on some orders for customers who are three months in arrears. He paid his workers a 200 yuan ($30) bonus for a recent national holiday, but is letting those who want to leave go.
"The workers know it's not a problem with our factory itself, it's just hard to get our money back," he said.
温州电镀厂的老板杨光华说他将停止那些拖欠款项3个月客户的订单。他给每个工人支付了最近国庆假期的200元津贴。但是还是有些人要离开。杨说，“这些工人知道我的工厂不会有什么问题，但是钱很难要回来。”

Lighter factory owner He Zhanjun, who said he is paying 70% more this year for plastic than last year, is persevering. But he expects about a third of the city's lighter manufacturers to fold.
"Manufacturing is just getting harder and harder," he said.
打火机厂老板何占军（音译）仍在坚挺着，他跟去年比起来在塑料成本上要多付70%的钱。但是他估计这个城市只有三分之一的制造商能挺住。他说道，“制造业变得越来越难。”

Though Wenzhou's streets rumble round-the-clock with heavy truck traffic and its skyline is studded with cranes, many workshops and smaller factories stand idle and padlocked. Big office buildings and apartment complexes sit half-finished.
尽管温州街道上不分昼夜的跑着重型卡车和天际边的起重机也在不停作业。许多手工坊和小工厂只是关着门毫无生气的立在那里。大的办公楼和公寓群都成了烂尾楼。

"Up to now most of what we have done is cheap cost, cheap priced production," said Zhou, who trained as an economist. "Our industries need to upgrade. They need new technology and innovation. They need to create their own brands."
将要成为经济学家的周说道，“迄今为止，大多数我们能够做的都是低成本低价格的产品，我们的工业需要升级，他们需要技术和改革。他们需要创造出自己的品牌。”

Such is true for many Chinese manufacturers, who are ceding low-cost competitiveness to other developing countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh.
对于中国制造业来说，这是无疑的。中国制造商正在丧失与越南和孟加拉国等发展中国家相比低成本竞争的优势。

But it's a tall order for a city specializing in contract production for other brands, where billboards advertise tongue-twisting non-household names like Lonsid and Zhotr.
但是对于一个擅长生产别牌的生产商城市来说，这样的要求的苛责的。那里的广告牌都写着像是绕口令的品牌像朗诗德和中泰。

For one thing, upgrading depends on persuading customers to accept higher prices, said Chen, whose 21-year-old company employs about 1,000 people.
"We have to use our heads. There is a lot of pressure," he said.
首先，产业升级依赖于顾客接受更高的价格。陈手下的这个厂已经有21年了并且雇佣了1000人。“我们必须要用脑子，会有很大的乐趣的。”陈说道。

China's ascent up the value chain to more sophisticated, costlier products also will require automation.
中国的价值上升链条将会很复杂，更奢侈的产品将需要全自动化的生产。

Facing wage increases of 25% this year, Qiu Jinguo, 45-year-old owner of Ruian Yutong Vehicle Fittings Co., an auto accessories factory, said he is replacing some of his 70-plus employees with machines.
45岁的瑞安宇通配件公司老板丘金国（音译）面临着70多个员工工资上涨25%，他说他已经引进了机器，可以减少一些员工。

"The cost is the same, while management is much easier," said Qiu, who reckons his profit will still fall by a third this year from last year due to soaring costs.
丘说道，“成本是一样的，但是管理要简单得多。”他预计他的利润还是会由于上涨的成本下降三分之一。

But behind Wenzhou's woes lie a wider problem in China: many with capital to invest are no longer looking to manufacturing, when real estate, speculating in commodities such as Pu Er tea and high interest lending can offer much better returns.
但是在中国温州现象的背后还有一个更大问题要考虑：许多资金都不再投资制造业却去炒货，比如房地产和普洱茶以及能带来高收益的高利贷。

Yu, a former bureaucrat who spent seven years in China's rugged northeast as a youth, said he wants to expand his paper products empire, but can't do it without automation. Problem is, there's not much interest in his line of business.
"I need a machine to make those toilet seat covers and I've been looking for one for a long time but I can't find one anywhere," Yu said.
曾在东北当过7年官的余说，他想扩展他的纸业帝国，但是不能脱离自动化的生产。问题在于，他的生意没有那么大的利润。
我需要生产马桶坐垫的机器，我曾经找了它很久但是哪里都没找到。余说道。



注：庞氏骗局是一种最古老和最常见的投资诈骗，是金字塔骗局的变体，很多非法的传销集团就是用这一招聚敛钱财的，这种骗术是一个名叫查尔斯·旁兹的投机商人“发明”的。庞氏骗局在中国又称“拆东墙补西墙”、“空手套白狼”。简言之就是利用新投资人的钱来向老投资者支付利息和短期回报，以制造赚钱的假象进而骗取更多的投资。




网友评论


This is just a small factor in a larger chain of events that will drive some manufacturing back to the US and some to other countries. China became a manufacturing haven on cheap labor, cheap money, and cheap land. Now they are experiencing the forces of a global economy and a growing middle class that won't work for pennies a day anymore. Chinese factories didn't have to invest in equipment because it was cheaper to hire people. Now that is changing too。
这只是在大事链条中小的因素。一些制造业会重新回到美国和其他的国家，中国成为制造天堂是因为便宜的劳动力，便宜的成本和便宜的土地。现在他们也在经历全球经济的压力和不再为一点钱而劳作一天上升的中产阶级。中国工厂之前没有投资在设备上而是雇佣人是因为人力更便宜，现在情况在改变了。


This will be real interesting, if China dips into a recession what will become of the world's economy.
这很有趣，当中国经济也衰退了，世界会怎么样呢？

========

When China sneezes, the rest of the world will catch a cold.
接上楼评论，当中国打喷嚏了，世界就要感冒了。

"But behind Wenzhou's woes lie a wider problem in China: many with capital to invest are no longer looking to manufacturing, when real estate, speculating in commodities such as Pu Er tea and high interest lending can offer much better returns."
Wall Street comes to Chinatown.
“但是在中国温州现象的背后还有一个更大问题要考虑：许多资金都不再投资制造业却去炒货，比如房地产和普洱茶以及能带来高收益的高利贷。”--引用原文

华尔街变成了中国城。

lyq999999

温州现在的经济真的很差吗

lyycc

沿海城市制造业难以为继一方面是国内人工、材料费用增长导致利润降低，另一方面就是人民币升值导致出口压力过大，不萧条反倒怪了~

lilyma06

lyq999999 发表于 2011-10-20 04:39
温州现在的经济真的很差吗

嗯，这种情况不是一年两年累计成的了

松花江畔

温州多大个屁地方，能改变中国什么？

clover213

pressure,是压力不是乐趣……不是pleasure……

话说中国早都不需要出口创汇了吧……温州危机最大的问题是失业……

四月天空会流泪

泡泡呀。。。。。。