本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-26 09:29 编辑
【中文标题】龙尾巴的厉害： 中国经济崩溃的代价
【原文标题】Analysis: Dragon tail risk: The cost of a China crash
【登载媒体】Reuters
【来源地址】http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/us-economy-china-idUSTRE79N31320111024
【译 者】 AK22
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
（路透社） - 关于中国(经济)硬着陆的讨论是一个经典的尾部风险(Tail Risk —— 用以形容组合投资项目中被低估和忽视的风险)的故事 – 虽然不太可能发生，但如果它真的实现了，那后果可能是灾难性的。 (Reuters) - The China hard-landing debate is a classic tail risk story -- an unlikely scenario, but if it materializes the consequences could be catastrophic.
因为中国与马来西亚、新加坡、韩国、台湾和香港紧密的贸易联系，将使他们成为中国增长大幅削弱的首当其冲。
Because of their close trade links, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong would be among the first to feel the pain should China's growth weaken dramatically.
然而，它带来的冲击甚至要比08年雷曼兄弟公司破产后，蔓延整个亚洲的损失更大。
However, it would probably take a shock even bigger than what followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy to spread significant damage beyond Asia.
从汇丰周一公布的有关中国制造业的最新调查来看，世界第二大经济体的增长没有崩溃的迹象。
Judging from the latest HSBC survey of China's manufacturing sector, released on Monday, there is no evidence that growth is collapsing in the world's second biggest economy.
事实上，上周，路透调查的30位经济学家中，没有一位预计中国2012年的增长率将低于8％。
Indeed, not one of the 30 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted China's 2012 growth rate would dip below 8 percent.
但是，关于中国是经济灾难引导者的推论却从未息声。一些经济学家已经试图去计算潜在的后果，以防他们的经济预测过份乐观。
But that has not silenced speculation that China is heading for an economic disaster. Some economists have tried to calculate the potential fallout just in case their forecasts prove to be overly optimistic.
美国美林银行的经济学家估计，如果中国的实际人均国内生产总值下降2个百分点，那么这股阵痛还将只是维持在亚洲范围。
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economists estimated that if China's real per capita gross domestic product fell by 2 percentage points, the pain would remain contained within Asia.
他们在上周给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果负面的影响波及整个亚洲，那中国将遭受严重的冲击”。
"It would take a severe shock to China for the negative spillovers to be transmitted beyond Asia," they wrote in a note last week to clients.
4个百分点的下降将足以蔓延到部分欧洲和中东的地区，包括俄罗斯，科威特和芬兰等国的增长将会受打击。全球年经济增长可能会下降0.5个百分点。
A 4 percentage point drop would be enough to spread to parts of Europe and the Middle East, with growth suffering in countries including Russia, Kuwait and Finland. Annual global growth would probably drop by 0.5 percentage points.
上一次中国经济遭遇像如此大的下滑，还是在雷曼破产后。2008年第四季度比去年同期相比下降到了6.8％，低于早先3个月的9.0％。
The last time China's economy recorded a decline anywhere close to that magnitude was after the Lehman bankruptcy. Year-over-year growth dropped to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 9.0 percent in the prior three-month period.
若中国的实际人均国内生产总值下降6个百分点，美林银行称之为全面性的崩溃。这将损害欧洲最大的经济体 - 德国，法国和英国 - 甚至波及美国的经济增长。它可能会抵消掉全球经济增长0.8个百分点。
A full-blown crash, which BofA-Merrill described as a 6 percentage point drop in China's real per capita GDP, would harm Europe's biggest economies -- Germany, France and Britain -- and even nick U.S. growth. It would probably shave 0.8 percentage points off global growth.
考虑到国际货币基金组织还相对保守地认为2012年世界产量将上升4％，这无疑是个重大的打击。
That would be a significant hit considering the International Monetary Fund thinks world output will be up a relatively modest 4 percent in 2012.
末日的场景
DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
美林银行悲观地认为中国崩溃的风险概率为0.13％。
BofA-Merrill considers the risk of a China crash negligible -- a 0.13 percent probability event.
但唱空中国经济的人不减反增，对于即将到来的末日警告呼声高涨。 他们质疑中国根本无法永远以固定资产投资来驱动8％以上的增长。负债累累的地方政府就是一种默认。楼市崩溃可能致使数百甚至数千开发商丢掉饭碗。银行的不良贷款会不断累积，中国可能会面临一个全面的信贷危机。
But the China bears are growing louder in their warnings of an impending doom. China simply cannot rely on fixed-asset investment to drive 8-percent-plus growth forever, they argue. Heavily indebted local governments could default. A property market crash may drive hundreds or even thousands of developers out of business. Bad loans may pile up on banks' books, and China could face an all-out credit crisis.
“中国无疑是一个严重失衡的经济体，贷款推动下的投资和过量的房屋供给，可以很容易地致使失控和崩溃，就像之前所有其他的那些‘被高估的’经济泡沫一样”，法国兴业银行战略家和著名的经济唱空人士，阿尔伯特-爱德华兹在10月20日研究报告中写道。
"China is undoubtedly a severely imbalanced economy, suffering from credit-fueled investment and housing excesses that could easily spin out of control and crash, just like all the other 'highly regarded' economic bubbles before it," Societe Generale strategist and well-known bear Albert Edwards wrote in an October 20 research note.
吉姆-沃克，以香港为基地的顾问公司Asianomics的创始人，他说，如果中国的2012年GDP放缓至只有7％，这将是一个“奇迹”。
Jim Walker, founder of Hong Kong-based consultancy Asianomics, said it would be a "miracle" if China's 2012 GDP slows to just 7 percent.
“我们真正要的东西很多，远远比这多得多，”他说。 “中国将‘幸运’地窃走那5％。”
这对于2011年的预期增长将是一个超过4个百分点的下滑。不仅中国的区域贸易伙伴会受到打击，连日用商品出口国，如澳大利亚和印度尼西亚，也会受影响。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，2009年，中国占世界铁矿石进口量的65％，煤炭进口量的15％。
"We're really looking for something much, much worse than that," he said. "China will be lucky to get away with 5 percent." That would be a drop of more than 4 percentage points from 2011's expected growth. Not only would China's regional trade partners take a hit, but so would commodity exporters such as Australia and Indonesia. China accounted for 65 percent of the world's iron ore imports in 2009, and 15 percent of coal imports, according to IMF data.
投眼于光明的一面 LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE
中国经济增长放缓会为亚洲带来了一些好处，虽然很小。香港花旗集团首席亚太经济学家约翰娜-蔡表示，较低的价格将为亚洲的商品进口商带来期盼的通胀缓解。
A China slowdown would bring some benefits for Asia, albeit small ones. Lower prices would bring welcome inflation relief for Asia's commodity importers, said Johanna Chua, chief Asia-Pacific economist for Citi in Hong Kong.
而一小部分外资可能也会投资往东南亚的一些经济体，他们一直在努力与中国竞争海外资金。
It might also swing a little bit more foreign investment toward other Southeast Asian economies that have struggled to compete with China for overseas funds.
中国，去年只为东盟的10个国家投了24亿美元，根据新加坡美林经济学家Chua Hak Bin表示，他认为，这些投资额对中国构不成系统性的威胁。
China itself invested only about $2.4 billion last year into the 10 countries that make up the Association of South East Asian Nations, according to Bofa-Merrill economist Chua Hak Bin in Singapore, too little to pose a systemic threat on its own.
有相当多的资金以其他方式流入了中国。自1995年以来，东盟已在中国投资约750亿美元，据披露新加坡投入最为巨大，占620亿美元。中国经济的硬着陆可能导致一个“显著”的双损，美林的Chua Hak Bin说。
There is considerably more money flowing the other way. Since 1995, ASEAN has invested about $75 billion in China, with Singapore far and away the most exposed, accounting for $62 billion of that. A China hard landing could cause "significant" portfolio losses, BofA-Merrill's Chua said.
但这点也很明显，那就是，如果经济增长看起来可能大幅削弱，北京政府势必会采取行动。它会使用空间来增加政府开支，放宽信贷紧缩，并减缓人民币汇率升值以促进出口业。
But it also looks clear that Beijing will act if growth looks likely to weaken dramatically. It has room to ramp up government spending, ease credit conditions, and slow the appreciation of the yuan currency to give exports a boost.
“如果中国经济硬着陆，我在一件事情上同意那些看高的经济人士：期待当局成为强有力的助推剂。”法国兴业银行的爱德华兹说道。
"If China is hard landing, I agree with the bulls on one thing: expect the authorities to become aggressively stimulative," SocGen's Edwards said.
（Emily Kaiser在新加坡的报告； Mathew Veedon编辑； AK22编译）
(Reporting by Emily Kaiser in Singapore; Editing by Mathew Veedon)
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发表于 2011-10-26 00:53
