【华尔街日报111025】伊战之后，美国将矛头转向亚洲

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【中文标题】伊战之后，美国将矛头转向亚洲

【原文标题】After Iraq War, U.S. To Shift Focus to Asia

【登载媒体】华尔街日报

【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB40001424052970203911804576651003166199660.html

【译    者】 WilliamRUC

【翻译方式】   人工

【声    明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译    文】
The deluge of commentary following President Barack Obama's announcement that all American troops are leaving Iraq by year's end largely missed the most important strategic implication: The winding down of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan clears the way for the U.S. to shift its focus to Asia and, in particular, China, the part of the world that likely matters most in the long run.
If we're lucky, this shift might even lead to a more sophisticated debate in the 2012 presidential campaign about the U.S. approach to China, which has been pretty sterile so far.
　　总统奥巴马宣布所有美国部队将在年底前撤离伊拉克引来了潮水般的评论，但是它们大多没能把握这一决定的最重要战略意义：伊拉克与阿富汗战事的消隐为美国将矛头指向亚洲尤其是中国扫清了障碍，后者将在相当长的时期内扮演世界上的重要角色。
　　如果我们足够幸运，这一转向将引发2012年总统大选最复杂的辩论议题。美国对中国的政策目前为止并无多大作为。

Whatever the merits of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, one of their consequences has been to divert America's gaze from the direction it had been heading—toward the Asia-Pacific region and its gathering economic strength. It would be folly, of course, to think this means Iraq and Afghanistan now can be forgotten; the specter of a potentially nuclear-capable Iran stepping into a vacuum is enough to require continued American involvement.
But there's no doubt that economic pressures alone will produce a shift eastward. On Monday, in fact, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was visiting Asia, asserting that the U.S. now is at "a turning point" that will allow a strategic rebalancing toward Asia.
　　无论在伊拉克和阿富汗的战事中占据何等优势，不可否认的影响是它们导致美国将它的注意力从亚太地区转移，后者则在此期间积蓄了经济力量。现在认为伊拉克和阿富汗问题可被遗忘的主意当然很愚蠢。而且伊朗发展潜在核能力的阴影也迫使美国继续介入。
　　不过毫无疑问经济压力将促使东进的转折。事实上本周一国防部长莱昂•帕内塔在亚洲之行中，已在主张美国正在对亚洲实施策略平衡动作的“转折点”。

Similarly, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has in recent days said such a shift is coming. In a speech in New York on the need to use diplomatic power to address America's economic ailments, she declared that in the aftermath of Iraq and Afghanistan, "the world's strategic and economic center of gravity is shifting east, and we are focusing more on the Asia-Pacific region."
In a new article in Foreign Policy magazine, she calls for "a substantially increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia Pacific region."
She defined that region to include India and Indonesia, but most of the focus will be on China and its complicated economic relationship with the U.S. It's safe to say that many Americans fear the rising economic power of China, worrying that their country is either losing ground to Chinese industrial might or, worse, becoming subservient to Beijing because of a reliance on Chinese investment to finance America's federal deficits.
　　无独有偶，国务卿希拉里•克林顿近日也表示类似的转折正在发生。她在纽约演讲中声称存在使用外交力量改变美国在亚洲弱势的需要，并认为伊拉克与阿富汗战争的后果是：“世界的战略与经济重心东移了，我们将在亚太地区加强力量。”
　　她认为这片地区包括印度与印尼，但是最主要的重点将在中国与它与美国的复杂经济联系上。现在说许多美国人害怕中国经济力量的崛起不会带来什么麻烦，美国人担心他们的国家在与中国工业的竞争中失去地盘，或者更糟糕的是——因为中国对美国国债的投资而变得屈从北京。

Yet one of the opportunities in the coming shift of focus to the east is the chance for America's political leaders—and political candidates—to explain to the citizenry that China is not, in fact, 10 feet tall. China faces considerable economic problems of its own, a recognition of which might at least reduce the atmosphere of economic fear and anxiety that has crept across America.
Indeed, there is emerging a whole new school of China skeptics who think that country's economic potential is being exaggerated and its own problems downplayed. In a commentary distributed last week, Jerry Jasinowski, an economist and former president of the National Association of Manufacturers, declared that "there is growing evidence that China's challenge to U.S. manufacturing has peaked, and its competitive advantage is in decline."
　　然而转向东方的其中一个好机会属于美国领导人——以及候选人们——以此对国民解释中国身高并非十尺。中国自身面临相当多的经济问题，这一点至少可以缓解席卷美国全国的经济焦虑气氛。
　　事实上，有个全新的中国怀疑论正在形成，其认为中国的经济潜力被高估了，而其自身的问题则被忽视。在上周发表的一个评论中，经济学家、国家制造业协会前主席Jerry Jasinowski宣称“有更多的迹象表明中国对美国制造业的挑战已见顶，而它的竞争力优势已消退。”

Mr. Jasinowski cited in particular a recent report from Boston Consulting Group that the cost of producing goods in China is rising as wages, raw materials, real estate and energy all escalate in price there. Meantime, Mr. Jasinowski notes, American manufacturers have become more competitive amidst the painful economic adjustment now under way. Over time, he argued, when the cost of shipping goods from China is taken into account, making and buying American will become more attractive again.
If the competitive playing field is being brought closer to level, one goal of American statecraft is to push harder toward that goal by compelling China to play more by international economic rules. In particular, that means sustained pressure to end manipulation of its currency's value and to protect intellectual property. One of the goals of American diplomats, in fact, is to convince China that its own long-term interest lies in a fair international system. "If a big country like China doesn't play to the rules, the global system will be hurt and ultimately so will China, which depends heavily on it," says Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats.
　　Jasinowski特别引用了波士顿咨询集团最近的一份报告，其中提到中国的交易成本正因劳资成本、材料成本、土地成本与能源升级成本的上升而提高。Jasinowski指出美国在痛苦的经历结构转型中变得更富竞争力。他认为随着从中国采购货物的成本上升，“美国制造”将重新受人欢迎。
　　如果竞争环境正在接近同一水平，美国的一个策略目标将奋力驱使中国更加遵守国际经济规则。这尤其意味着对中国的汇率操控和知识产权案保护施加压力。美国外交政策的一个目标就是说服中国维护其长期利益必须在公平的国际系统中完成。“如果像中国这么大的国家不遵守规则，全球系统将受到损害，而且严重依赖它的中国也会最终遭殃”，副国务卿罗伯特•霍马茨说道。

Which leads to the nascent presidential campaign. There already is plenty of China bashing there, thanks in large measure to Republican hopeful Mitt Romney, who is promising a tougher line against China. He has proposed imposing duties on China in direct retaliation for currency manipulation and intellectual-property theft, and last week even won applause at a debate by suggesting that China somehow be compelled to pick up the tab for foreign aid the U.S. now disperses.
But there are other ways to advance American interests, including making common cause with Asian and Latin American nations that feel bullied by the Chinese. Indeed, the best discussion might be about how to better compete with China, not how to punish it.
　　谈到新近的总统选举，由于共和党参选人Mitt Romney主张对中国更为强硬，已经有不少打击中国的言论了。他建议因操纵汇率和知识产权窃取的原因提高对中国关税，甚至在上星期在辩论中要求中国履行对外援助的责任，美国援助方面日益分散。这一提议引来了一阵掌声。
　　不过还是有别的方法扩大美国的利益，包括与感到被中国欺压的亚洲与拉丁国家开展合作。事实上，最有价值的讨论在于如何更好地与中国竞争，而非如何惩罚它。

中国贵州

:P犹太人和中华民族大决战

voloin

规则是西方国家制定的，that's why中国在某些方面不会遵守。