中国可能有条件援助欧洲英国《金融时报》 吉密欧 北京, 理查德•米尔恩 伦敦报道
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041425
中国政府的两名资深顾问对英国《金融时报》表示，中国很可能向欧元区纾困基金贡献资金，但其介入规模将取决于欧洲领导人能否满足一些关键条件。 据清华大学教授、中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵，以及前委员余永定表示，中国的任何支持都将取决于其它国家作出的贡献，而且北京方面必须就其投资的安全性得到强有力的保证。
“帮助欧洲符合中国的长期根本利益，因为他们是我们的最大贸易伙伴，但中国政府的主要关切是如何向国内人民解释这个决定，”李稻葵表示。“中国可不想挥霍国家的财富，到头来还只被视为一个傻钱来源。”
他补充说，北京方面可能还会促请欧洲领导人不要批评中国的汇率政策，汇率政策经常是中国与贸易伙伴之间产生紧张的源头。美国辩称，有意低估的人民币，让中国出口产品得到了不公平的补贴。
尽管一些欧洲人对中国投资感到不适，但中方的上述言论对欧元区领导人而言堪称振奋人心，就在此前数小时，欧元区领导人举行了一场峰会，以求平息已持续两年的主权债务危机。各方达成的协议让金融市场松了一口气，该协议包括的计划有，拟对欧洲各银行进行资本重组，迫使它们接受所持希腊债务减记50%，并增大纾困基金“欧洲金融稳定安排”(EFSF)的火力。
银行类股票价格飙升，而欧元兑美元汇率上涨2.2%。但是，有一个迹象表明投资者内心仍对欧元区债务危机将如何演变感到紧张，那就是意大利国债收益率在最初降至5.7%之后，又反弹至5.9%，逼近该国国债在欧元时代的高位。
EFSF负责人克劳斯•雷格林(Klaus Regling)定于周四晚些时候抵达北京，与中国高层领导人就中国是否作出贡献和作出多大贡献展开磋商。法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)在峰会结束数小时后致电中国国家主席胡锦涛，讨论相关纾困计划，但各方均没有立即发表有关中国介入的声明。
欧洲各国领导人同意，EFSF将探索两项计划，以求将其剩余的火力从大约2500亿欧元（合3550亿美元）增至1万亿欧元。其中一项计划将是针对一些选定的国债，向投资者提供担保，而另一项计划将是创建一只特别基金，由国际货币基金组织(IMF)或中国等国家向其投资。
中国拥有3.2万亿美元外汇储备，据信其中大约四分之一是欧元资产。据熟悉中国领导层思路的一名人士介绍，中国可能愿意向EFSF、或与IMF共同资助建立的一只新基金贡献500亿至1000亿美元。
中国可能提出的一个条件是，它贡献的资金至少须有一部分以人民币计价，这将保护中国投资不受汇率波动的影响。中国将购入欧元计价的债券，但这些债券的本息还款将补偿人民币价值的任何变动。过去三年里，人民币兑欧元汇率已累计上升近20%。
反映欧洲方面不安的迹象之一是，德国工业协会的负责人表示，他担心中国的帮助可能“带来政治代价”。汉斯-彼得•凯特尔(Hans-Peter Keitel)对英国《金融时报》表示：“请一个欧元区以外的国家来帮助欧元，将给予那个国家决定单一货币命运的权力。”
译者/和风
China could play key role in EU rescueBy Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Richard Milne in London
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7505d210-00ba-11e1-8590-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1c2d2GxKw
China is very likely to contribute to the eurozone’s bail-out fundbut the scope of its involvement will depend on European leaders satisfying some key conditions, two senior advisers to the Chinese government have told the Financial Times.
Any Chinese support would depend on contributions from other countries and Beijing must be given strong guarantees on the safety of its investment, according to Li Daokui, an academic member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, and Yu Yongding, a former member of that committee.
Financial markets reacted with relief hours after a European deal was agreed at a summit aimed at calming the two-year-long sovereign debt crisis. The plan includes recapitalising European banks, making them accept a loss of 50 per cent on their holdings of Greek debt and boosting the firepower of the rescue fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility.
The S&P 500, which rose 3.4 per cent, is on course for its best monthly gain since October 1974. The FTSE All World stock index gained 4.1 per cent, its best one-day rise since May 2010.
Bank stocks also increased sharply with the S&P financials index gaining 6.2 per cent, led by big commercial banks. The dollar slumped 1.6 per cent, its biggest one-day drop since May 2009, as the euro surged more than 2 per cent, above $1.42.
“It is in China’s long-term and intrinsic interest to help Europe because they are our biggest trading partner but the chief concern of the Chinese government is how to explain this decision to our own people,” said Professor Li. “The last thing China wants is to throw away the country’s wealth and be seen as just a source of dumb money.”
He added that Beijing might also ask European leaders to refrain from criticising China’s currency policy, a frequent source of tension with trade partners. The US argues that an intentionally undervalued renminbi unfairly supports Chinese exports.
In spite of discomfort among some Europeans about Chinese investment, the comments represented a fillip to eurozone leaders hours after a summit aimed at calming the two-year-long sovereign debt crisis.
With $3,200bn in foreign exchange reserves, roughly a quarter of which are believed to be held in euros, China could be willing to contribute between $50bn and $100bn to the EFSF or a new fund set up under its auspices in collaboration with the IMF, according to one person familiar with the thinking of the Chinese leadership.
“If conditions are right then something a bit above $100bn is not inconceivable,” this person said.
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France welcomed the prospect of a Chinese contribution to the eurozone rescue package. “Our independence would not be put into question by this,” he said in a television interview. “Why would we not accept that the Chinese had confidence in the eurozone and place a part of their surpluses in our funds or our banks. Would you rather they placed it with the US?”
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Klaus Regling, head of the EFSF, was due to arrive in Beijing late on Thursday for discussions with senior Chinese leaders on whether and how much China might contribute. President Sarkozy telephoned his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao a few hours after the summit ended to discuss the rescue plan but there was no immediate announcement on any Chinese involvement.
European leaders agreed that the EFSF would explore two plans to increase its remaining firepower from about €250bn to €1,000bn. One would be to offer investors insurance on selected government debt while the other would create a special fund in which countries such as China could invest.
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One condition China might ask for is that its contribution be at least partly denominated in renminbi, which would protect its investment against currency fluctuations. China would buy euro-denominated bonds but repayments would compensate for any changes in the value of the renminbi, which has appreciated nearly 20 per cent against the euro in the past three years.
Reflecting the unease in Europe, the head of Germany’s industry association said he feared Chinese help could “come at some political cost”. Hans-Peter Keitel told the FT: “Asking a non-eurozone nation to help the euro would give the other nation the power to decide the fate of the single currency.”
The global focus on how China might contribute to the European rescue plan illustrates its increased influence on the world stageand many in Beijing believe this crisis presents an opportunity for it to display global citizenship and responsibility commensurate with its rising status.
Beijing’s main concern is how any contribution to a European bailout will be viewed domestically by an increasingly informed and critical populace.
“Any mis-steps in helping Europe could cause problems with domestic public opinion – the Chinese people will watch very carefully what their own government does,” Prof Yu said. “European leaders also must have a clear plan of what to do and they must show China they have the political will as well as the support of their own people; if we see protests and chaos all the time, then China won’t have confidence in Europe’s political ability.”
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发表于 2011-10-28 18:18
