本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-31 10:48 编辑
【原文标题】Experts challenge China's 1-child population claim
【中文标题】专家挑战中国的独生子女的人口说
【译者】AK22
【登载媒体】The Times of India 印度时报
【原文链接】http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-10-28/china/30332236_1_family-planning-policy-world-population-fertility-rate
专家挑战中国的独生子女的人口说 Experts challenge China's 1-child population claim
北京：一个中国人称，如果没有中国政府的计划生育来严格限制，世界人口早些年就破70亿大关了。这在人口学家中点了一把火，他们说这种说法是毫无根据的，不科学的。
BEIJING: A Chinese claim that without its government's severe family planning limits world population would have hit the 7-billion mark years earlier is drawing fire from demographers who call it baseless and unscientific.
新闻网站和报纸引用的官方新华社的一份报告说，中国负责任地依靠独生子女政策，预防了4亿人口的降生 – 政策推出三十年来，限制大多数城市家庭拥有一个孩子和大多数农村家庭为两个。 A report by the official Xinhua News Agency that was carried on news websites and in newspapers said China is responsible for preventing 400 million births with its one-child policy - a set of restrictions that were launched three decades ago limiting most urban families to one child and most rural families to two.
“如果不是计划生育政策，中国的人口现在可能约17亿了，并且世界人口将在2006年达到70亿。”新华社援引北京人民大学社会学和人口学校主任，翟振武说。 "The population of China would now be around 1.7 billion had it not been for the family planning policy," Xinhua quoted Zhai Zhenwu, director of Renmin University's School of Sociology and Population in Beijing as saying. "And the world's population would have hit seven billion in 2006."
对于独生子女政策的估计和辩护已经是老生常谈了。但10月31日，联合国预测全球人口将达到70亿的里程碑，这又为全球控制人口增长的需要，以及中国作为世界上人口最多的国家，还是不是一个典范的这一讨论掀起了风暴。
The estimates and the defense of the one-child policy are not new. But with the United Nations projecting that global population will hit 7 billion on Oct 31, the milestone has refreshed debate about the global need for population control and whether China, still the world's most populous country, serves as model.
许多人口学家否认独生子女政策遏制了4亿人口出生的说法，并说，中国的方法不能复制。 “一个严厉的生育控制政策不是对世界人口问题的答案，”北卡罗莱纳大学教堂山分校的助理教授和中国人口问题专家，蔡邕说，翟和政府在“重写中国生育率下降的 历史。” Many demographers deny that the one-child policy curbed 400 million births and say China's methods must not be copied. "A draconian birth control policy is not the answer to the world population problem," said Cai Yong, an assistant professor at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and an expert on China's population. Cai said Zhai and the government are "rewriting China's fertility reduction history."
清华布鲁金斯公共政策中心主任蔡和王峰，在去年登载于《中国改革》的一文中，中国的语言政策讨论 杂志发表的一份文件，揭穿了4亿这个数字的不合理。《中国改革》是一本中文政策探讨类杂志。 Cai and Wang Feng, director of Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, last year published a paper in China Reform, a Chinese-language policy discussion magazine, debunking the 400 million figure.
他们认为，中国在1979年和2009年之间，避免2亿出生人口，是政府估计的一半。他们得出这个数字，是通过以1979年的生育率2.75，并且和2009年的1.7相比较，来计算人口的。新华社援引翟教授说法，他知道王和蔡的文章。虽然他代表4亿这个说法，但他说，政策开始前的十年，中国就开始鼓励晚婚和少生政策了。
They argue that between 1979 and 2009, China averted 200 million births, half the government estimate. They arrived at the number by calculating what the population would have been if China had maintained its 1979 fertility rate of 2.75 and comparing it to the 2009 fertility rate of 1.7 and population. Zhai, the professor quoted by Xinhua, said he knows Wang and Cai's paper. Though he stands by the 400 million figure, he said it covers a period that begins a decade earlier than the one-child policy when China began encouraging later marriages and fewer children.
“无论如何，这只是一个估计，”他说。 “还有很多不同的数字在那里，但它不会改变基本事实，就是政策掩盖了一个真正大量的出生数字。”
"It's an estimate anyway," he said. "And there are many different numbers out there but it doesn't change the basic fact that the policy prevented a really large number of births."
4亿这个数字的辩论声背后的背后，有更多支持是否并且何时要有关政府放宽计划生育限制的运动。蔡、王认为，政策使得家庭倾向于男性继承人而流产掉女婴孩。这样致使了国家的老龄化和性别比例失衡的恶化。
Behind the debate over the 400 million figure is larger campaign about whether and when the government should relax the family-planning limits. Cai and Wang argue that the policy has worsened the country's aging crisis and the imbalanced sex ratio by encouraging families with a preference for male heirs to abort baby girls.
“我想很多人喜欢这些简单的大数字，很容易识别，而且令人印象深刻，但不幸的是，这是毫无根据的，是不科学的，”王说。
"I think many people like to have these simple large numbers that are easy to recognize, and impressive, but unfortunately it's baseless, it's unscientific," said Wang.
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